Watch List Recap

During the two and early three year old seasons, I create the monthly Watch List, noting promising juveniles who are well-bred and/or won their debuts or other races impressively. Now that these babies have developed into mature three year olds, let’s wrap up the highlights of last season’s watch list before turning our attention to the two year olds of 2011.

I watched Astrology (A.P. Indy – Quiet Eclipse, by Quiet American) finish third in his debut on my birthday at Saratoga last year and immediately tagged him as a colt to watch. A half brother to three stakes winners with a stamina oriented pedigree, Astrology earned his own stakes win in the Iroquois (G-3) and was second to Santiva in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G-2). This year, Astrology began his year with a couple of second place finishes before charging from the back of the pack in the Preakness Stakes to grab the show spot. Astrology doesn’t appear to have the psyche and will to win, but we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and hope he’s just a late maturing colt. No doubt we’ll be seeing him in the big races this summer and fall.

Last August, the pedigrees and talent of three colts caught my eye and had me dreaming of the Kentucky Derby. Everyone had Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie – Playa Maya, by Arch) in their sights after his 14 length blowout in his debut. He went on to an undefeated season and took Champion Two Year Old honors. Uncle Mo became ill after the Wood Memorial, but wasn’t scratched from the Kentucky Derby until after the post positions were drawn. Hopefully we’ll see him race again, possibly this Fall.

Santiva (Giant’s Causeway – Slide, by Smarten) and Stay Thirsty (Bernardini – Marozina, by Storm Bird) both had blue-blooded two turn pedigrees and appeared to have the talent to be major players in their three year old season. Unfortunately, Santiva wound up six and Stay Thirsty was twelfth in the Kentucky Derby, but I predict both have good futures ahead, especially if Stay Thirsty is allowed to develop his own career instead of playing the role of Uncle Mo’s workmate.

His connections, Bobby Flay and Todd Pletcher, thought so highly of Sensational Slam (Grand Slam – Roman Romance, by San Romano) that they skipped the maiden conditions and sent Sensational Slam into a stakes race in his first start. He rewarded their faith by winning the Clarendon at Woodbine then turned around three weeks later to take the Vandal Stakes at the same track. Sensational Slam has been unplaced in two graded stakes, the With Anticipation and Blue Grass, but won the Fred “Cappy” Capossela earlier this year. The colt has been working consistently at Saratoga.

Smash (Smart Strike – Dixie Holiday, by Dixieland Band) was $400K purchase at 2010 OBSC March Select Two-Year-Olds in Training Sale. He was a precocious baby, and won his five furlong debut on July 18 over the Hollywood Cushion Track by 2 ½ lengths in :57 4/5 while on cruse control. Not surprisingly, Smash was injured and missed the rest of his juvenile season. He recently started his three year old campaign and placed second in a six furlong allowance race at Hollywood Park. Smash has been working steadily since that contest. His trainer Bob Baffert will certainly aim towards a stakes campaign for Smash, so keep an eye out for him in the Mid-summer races at Saratoga or DelMar.

In Florida, a state known for producing precocious juveniles, Awesome Feather (Awesomeofcourse – Precious Feather, by Gone West) swept the Florida Stallion Stakes then dominated the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. The undefeated miss earned top Two Year Old honors, but was injured, delaying the start of her three year old season. Awesome Feather recorded her first work for 2011 at Belmont Park on May 24, breezing three furlongs in 36.78. Hopefully, we’ll see her resume her career in late summer or early fall.

Alienation (Rock Hard Ten – Alienated, by Gone West) put up a fight to win her five furlong debut over Hollywood’s turf course, and then traveled east to contest the juvenile stakes races over the dirt. After pressing swift fractions in the Adirondack Stakes (G-2), Alienation finished a good second. She again finished second after a stumbling start in the Spinaway Stakes , but was toasted in the Oak Leaf (G-1) upon returning to Hollywood Park. The Baffert barn gave her some down time, and Alienation has been working steadily at Santa Anita for her comeback and perhaps we’ll see her back on the lawn this summer.

Excited (Giant’s Causeway – Path of Thunder, by Thunder Gulch) offered a professional win in her debut on August 27 traveling 1 1/6 miles in 1:45.17  over the firm Saratoga turf. She’s competed exclusively in stakes races and was third in the Good Mood as a juvenile. At three, Excited placed in the Sweetest Chant and Grade 3 Herecomesthebride before winning the Hilltop Stakes at Pimlico on May 20.

Royal Delta (Empire Maker – Delta Princess, by A. P. Indy) stormed out of the back of the pack to win her debut by 12 lengths Belmont Park and immediately jumped to the top of my list for Kentucky Oaks contenders. By a Belmont Stakes winner out of a mare by a Belmont Stakes winner, Royal Delta is the second foal for her dam, a multiple graded stakes winner over turf. Delta Princess is a full sister to Grade 1 winner Indy Five Hundred and she is a half sister to the Group 1 winner Biondetti, who competed in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Royal Delta’s third dam Proud Delta won the Beldame and Top Flight Handicaps (both Grade 1) as well as four other stakes races over dirt. Royal Delta had a late start to her three year old season and missed the Kentucky Oaks, but was a convincing winner of the recent Black Eyed Susan Stakes. Royal Delta will aim for the Grade 1 Alabama this summer at Saratoga.

I’ll continue to follow these talented horses throughout their racing and breeding careers. Maybe one will become the next Northern Dancer or a noted blue hen.

Formidable Field In Florida

In the last ten years, the Florida Derby has showcased the talents of Monarchos, Barbaro and Big Brown. All three were brilliant winners weeks later in Kentucky. Empire Maker and Ice Box were successful in Florida but were second-best in Kentucky, while the swift Quality Road discovered he was superior at 1 1/8 miles and not one step farther.
This year’s Florida Derby field appears to be the strongest in years, and it would be no surprise if one of the contestants becomes a Kentucky Derby hero.
The dominating conqueror of the Fountain of Youth, SOLDAT (War Front – Le Relais, by Coronados Quest) clearly loves the Gulfstream surface and is the best representative of his second crop sire. Soldat has a speed over stamina pedigree with a mix of dirt and turf attributes. His second crop sire, a son of Danzig, is a Grade 2 winning dirt sprinter while damsire Coronado’s Quest won the Travers Stakes. Second damsire Apalachee was a Champion sprinting juvenile in Europe. Soldat is the deserving favorite in the Florida Derby.
A surprising and distant third against Soldat in the Fountain Of Youth, TO HONOR AND SERVE (Bernardini – Pilfer, by Deputy Minister clearly needed the race. He has a pedigree well-suited to the Classic distances and the Bill Mott Trainee has been working spectacularly over the deep Payson Park surface and should be stronger the second time around.
Uncle Mo’s stable mate STAY THIRSTY (Bernardini – Marozina, by Storm Bird) strode out of his famous stable mate Uncle Mo’s shadow and easily beat a second-rate group in the Gotham Stakes (G-3). Stay Thirsty has a stamina oriented pedigree perfect for the Classics. He is a half brother to freshman sire Andromeda’s Hero and his precocious full brother Superfly. Stay Thirsty adds blinkers to keep him focused and we should get a good indication of how good he is in the Florida Derby.
The Holy Bull (G-3) winner DIALED IN (Mineshaft - Miss Doolittle, by Storm Cat) regressed slightly in his Florida Derby prep race, but he still ran a strong race over a surface that plays against his running style. He’s a half-brother to Astoria Stakes (5F) winner Broadway Gold and turf stakes placed runner Mambo Meister. His dam was third in the Schuylerville Stakes (G-3) and Eliza, the second dam won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and was second in the Kentucky Oaks. Dialed In should get a strong pace to set up his stretch run.
SHACKLEFORD (Forestry – Oatsee, by Unbridled) Like Soldat, Shackleford had no response in the Fountain Of Youth after a good win previously against allowance company. Shackleford has a speed over stamina pedigree. He’s a half-brother to Alabama Stakes (G-1) heroine Lady Joanne and Grade 2 winner Baghdaria. His dam and second dam are both stakes winners. His sire Forestry has produced two dirt stakes winners at 1 1/8 miles, Discreet Cat and Etched. Shackleford and Etched have similar breeding as both have Unbridled sire line dams.
BOWMAN'S CAUSEWAY (Giant’s Causeway – Victory Encounter, by Victory Speech) was thrown into graded stakes competition only two weeks after winning his maiden. The Patrick Biancone trainee has a stamina oriented pedigree and his dam won four stakes races, including the Vanity Handicap (G-1) at 1 1/8 miles. Bowman’s Causeway raced evenly against speedier rivals in his one mile prep for the Florida Derby. Like Dialed In, bowman’s Causeway is hindered by a speed favoring track, but if he wants to buy his ticket to Kentucky, he must overcome the bias and win here.
FLASHPOINT (Pomeroy - Two Punch Lil, by Two Punch) made short work of a nice group of sprinters in the Hutchinson Stakes (G-2) and will try to stretch his front-running speed an extra two furlongs. Flashpoint has a sprinter/miler pedigree. So far, his second crop sire’s offspring have failed to win at 1 1/8 miles. Pomeroy’s best representative on the track is El Camino Real Derby winner Positive Response. Flashpoint’s dam won half of her eight starts, including a stakes race. She is inbred to the blue hen Raise You through her third sire Raise A Native and his full sister, Toast Of The Town, who is Two Punch’s third dam. The pretty gray Flashpoint will has the difficult task of breaking on the far outside.
A newcomer to the Derby trail, ARCH TRAVELER (Sky Mesa – Mettle, by Silver Deputy) has won his last two races, including a win at 1 1/8 miles. Five of his sire’s progeny have been successful in stakes at 1 1/8 miles; all have stamina-oriented female families. Silver Deputy is the damsire of four winners at 1 1/8 miles. Three out of four of Arch Traveler’s siblings of racing age are winners. His dam won three of eight starts sprinting over dirt and she’s a half-sister to a couple of Japanese stakes winners. Arch Traveler won’t get easy fractions in this race and may become a pace casualty.
SELECTIONS:
How the track is playing: 67% pace setters/pressers have won this meet, with 38% going wire-to-wire. Outside posts are at a disadvantage with the first turn just yards from the starting gate. Weather should be beautiful as always and the track should be fast.
This year’s Florida Derby has a plethora of speed and there will be a likely traffic jam around the first turn and down the backstretch. The horses nearest the rail should have the best trip. SOLDAT and TO HONOR AND SERVE can handle a quick pace and still be strong in the final furlong. If DIALED IN doesn’t have to go too wide around the final turn, he’ll mow down the tiring field and should get a piece of it. STAY THIRSTY will get a real class test and it will be no surprise to see his nose on the wire first. If BOWMAN’S CAUSEWAY can get a decent trip, he could round out the exotics at long odds. SHACKLEFORD and ARCH TRAVELER have wins at 1 1/8 miles against lesser company. Their pedigrees indicate this is as far as they’ll want to run and their forward running styles could have them going the wrong way when the real running begins. FLASHPOINT is a sprinter and will be looking for an Oxygen tank after a mile.
#2 TO HONOR AND SERVE
#1 SOLDAT
#7 DIALED IN
#6 STAY THIRSTY
#4 BOWMAN’S CAUSEWAY – longshot pick

Gotham Stakes Trend

A trend is starting to appear in New York. A Gotham winner has also been victorious in a Classic race every eleven years.

Eleven years ago, Red Bullet won the Gotham and went on to win a Classic Race, when he spoiled Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus’ Triple Crown bid in the Preakness. Eleven years earlier, Easy Goer pulled a Gotham/Belmont Stakes double, getting his revenge on the Derby/Preakness hero Sunday Silence. Perhaps we’ll see a Gotham/Classic winner in Saturday’s field.

All eyes are on Uncle Mo’s workmate STAY THIRSTY (Bernardini – Marozina, by Storm Bird). The Grade 1 Stakes placed colt has been holding his own in the mornings and should be fit for his three year old debut. Stay Thirsty has a stamina oriented pedigree perfect for the Classics. He is a half brother to freshman sire Andromeda’s Hero and his precocious full brother Superfly. The Pletcher barn is winning stakes races at a 19% clip this year.

Whirlaway hero TOBY'S CORNER (Bellamy Road – Brandons Ride, by Mister Frisky) is riding a three race win streak and is the logical second choice. Toby is already a winner over the Aqueduct surface at 1 1/6 miles. His second crop sire is getting winners up to 1 mile 70 yards over dirt and Polytrack. Damsire won the Santa Anita Derby and was third in the Preakness. 1 Toby's Corner is a half-brother to stakes winner Bushmills Best, but that’s about it for stakes horses in the first three generations. The Motion barn is successful with 19% of last out winners.

PREACHINTOTHEDEVIL (Pulpit – Acey Deucey, by Abaginone) was a distant third behind Toby’s Corner in the Whirlaway. He’s had a couple of really good breezes and should be ready to go. Preachintothedevil’s dam was a multiple graded stakes winning sprinter/miler. His damsire, a son of Devil’s Bag, won two Grade 3 sprint races. Preachintothedevil’s BRISNET speed figures have improved in every race. The Contessa barn grabs 12% of graded stakes races.

Grace 2 placed NACHO SAINT (Yes It’s True – Flashy, by Wild Again) changed his running style and finally won his maiden after going winless in four attempts last year. To be fair, he’s been in the money in all of his starts, but he’s been chasing pacesetters over speed-favoring tracks. Nacho Saint’s dam is a half-sister to Kings Lyn, dam of Sara Louise and this year’s Debutante Stakes winner Just Louise. The Kelly Breen stable has only 11% stakes winners, but gets 14% winners in their second start off of a layoff.

Three colts who have won their last two attempts will step into graded stakes competition to see if they can make headway on the Derby trail.

NORMAN ASBJORNSON (Real Quiet – Merryland Missy, by Citidancer) has won his last two races by over seven lengths. He gets plenty of stamina from his sire and his dam was a stakes winning sprinter. His second damsire Smarten won at 1 ¼ miles and placed going 1 ½ miles. Norman Asbjornson’s BRISNET speed figures have jumped in his last two races, indicating that he’s starting to mature. The Christopher Grove stable wins 19% of stakes races, which is pretty good for a moderate-sized stable.

STARSHIP CAESAR (Repent – Starship Honor, by Honor Grades) tests deep waters today. After winning a maiden claimer at Calder, He took an allowance race for new owners at Gulfstream. Starship Caesar has a middle-distance pedigree. His sire Repent was a middle distance horse, winning at 1 1/16 miles and placing second in the Travers Stakes. Starship Caesar’s dam was unplaced in five starts and there’s no blacktype in his first three generations. His damsire is a half brother to S.P. Indy and Summer Squall.

Trainer Steve Asmussen snatched DAWLY (Awesome Again – Usrah, by Tiznow) from a maiden claiming race last December. Dawly has a pedigree loaded with stamina. He is the first foal for his unraced dam who is a half sister to the Grade 2 winner Doubles Partner. Further, his second dam is a full sister to Champion Serena’s Song. The gelding should improve with distance and could be one to watch.

THE FED EASED (Montbrook – Valid Invitation, by Take Me Out) dominated maidens in his second try and now faces stakes competition. The Fed Eased has a miler pedigree. He’s a half brother to stakes placed Sweet Enticement and his unraced dam is a half sister to stakes winner Rocky River. The Fed Eased’s breezes are steady and the Violette barn is winning with 20% of their charges this year.

The inappropriately named ISN'T HE PERFECT won against maiden claimers last November and hasn’t been close racing against optional claimer and allowance company. He has the pedigree to do best at two turns and also has an excellent mud pedigree. His works are slow and the Shivmangai barn has a 7% win rate this year.

SELECTIONS:

How the track is playing: 40% of the winners have wired the field in route races. Alternatively 40% of winners win as mid-pack runners.

STAY THIRSTY has the pedigree to do well in Classic races. He ran against some of the best last year and has the class edge. Is he cranked for his return to the races? He’s been working well and will be the chalk. TOBY’S CORNER’S has improved in every race and has the benefit of a recent race. Despite winning his maiden last time out, NACHO SAINT kept classy company last year and is graded stakes placed. He won’t get away with a :24 first quarter, but he’s working well and could surprise if the top two falter. PREACHINTOTHEDEVIL was no match for TOBY’S CORNER last time out. The colt’s running style works against him, but he’s one to use in the exotics. DAWLY has the pedigree to relish longer distances and has a recent race under his girth. NORMAN ASBJORNSON is ready to take the next step and he could grab part of the money.

#5 STAY THIRSTY
#4 TOBY’S CORNER
#2 NACHO SAINT
#9 DAWLY - longshot selection

Breeders’ Cup Watch List of Promising Juveniles

No matter how quickly today’s two year old runners become stars, they can quickly disappear from view by tomorrow. That’s simply the nature of juvenile racing. It’s wise to start a watch list from mid-summer through the end of the year to become familiar with the up and comers.

Last week, the racing world was buzzing with the dominating performances by Position Limit in the Adirondack Stakes and Kantharos in the Saratoga Special. But does anyone remember the dominating performances of last year’s winners? How about their names?

For the record, last year Worstcasescenario cruised home by 4 ½ lengths in the Adirondack and wasn’t heard from again until her three year old season when she placed in two turf races. D’Funnybone was a runaway winner of last year’s Saratoga Special and he fared a bit better, carving out a niche as a nice sprinter this year as a three year old.

The following list could have Breeders’ Cup implications and become the basis for next year’s Triple Crown hopefuls. The watch list articles will be on-going throughout the year. Below are a few talented youngsters that may compete in up-coming stakes races.

While Position Limit was dazzling, keep an eye on Alienation(Rock Hard Ten – Alienated, by Gone West). She put up a fight to win her five furlong debut over Hollywood’s turf course, and then traveled east to take on winners over the dirt. Alienation pressed swift opening fractions of :21 3/5 and :45, and still gave a brief challenge to Position Limit when the other pace pressers backed up. Alienation’s sire won over dirt, but as we predicted in last year’s Sire Guide, he’s starting to make a name for himself as a producer of turf and synthetic track runners that need time to mature. Alienation’s dam won over dirt and placed on the turf and some very good runners have descended from this distaff family including 2006 Champion European Two Year Old Teofilo. If she can rate, Alienation will be one to watch as she matures and adds distance. Time will tell whether dirt or turf is her best surface, or if she’ll become one of the good fillies that can run over anything.

Smash

Bob Baffert continues to open the stable doors and unleash his herd of pricey babies. Smash(Smart Strike – Dixie Holiday, by Dixieland Band) could be one to watch. A $400K purchase at 2010 OBSC March Select Two-Year-Olds in Training Sale, Smash is a half brother to Holiday Runner, winner of two stakes races as a juvenile. The dam is a half sibling two stakes placed runners. Smash won his five furlong debut on July 18 over the Hollywood Cushion Track by 2 ½ lengths in :57 4/5 without being asked. The bay colt sat off the pace three wide, cruised past the front running leader without being asked and won professionally.

Awesome Feather - Photo: Jim Lisa

In Florida, a state known for producing precocious juveniles, Awesome Feather (Awesomeofcourse – Precious Feather, by Gone West) reigns undefeated at Calder after winning the JJ’s Dream and Desert Vixen Stakes. Awesome Feather is descended from a family of stakes winners. Although her sire is fairly obscure and won only a couple of minor sprint stakes races, Awesome Feather’s dam Precious Feather was a multiple stakes winner and her second dam Last Feather was a Group 3 winner in France. Third dam Quill was champion two year old filly and blue hen. Awesome Feather may appear in the next leg of the Florida Stallion Stakes series, The Brave Raj on September 28.

Stay Thirsty - EclipseSportswire

Meanwhile at Saratoga, we selected the winner of the eighth race on July 14 in our Play of the Day at Horse Racing Nation. Stay Thirsty(Bernardini – Marozina, by Storm Bird) was the only horse in the race with experience and he cruised to a sensational 5 ½ length victory over a well-bred group of maidens, including Heisman, the full brother to Any Given Saturday. Stay Thirsty is a half brother to freshman sire Andromeda’s Hero and his precocious full brother Superfly. His pedigree indicates that he’ll love stretching out and he should improve with maturity.

Sensational Slam Photo Crystal Jones

Speaking of sensational, don’t let Sensational Slam (Grand Slam – Roman Romance, by San Romano) pass you by. The Bobby Flay owned, Todd Pletcher trained colt is undefeated in two starts, both stakes wins at Woodbine. A $240K OBS Select Two Year Old, Sensational Slam has a fantastic pedigree. His dam is a multiple stakes winning sprinter and he can trace his distaff family directly back to Best In Show, through her daughter Sex Appeal. Sex Appeal is a half sister to Blush With Pride, the granddam of Rags to Riches. Several champions were produced from this family including Peeping Fawn, Aldebaran, Spinning World, Domedriver, etc.

Sensational Slam has Rasmussen Factor inbreeding (inbred to a superior mare within five generations) to two excellent dams. As mentioned, he traces back to Sex Appeal and she produced Sensational Slam’s fourth dam, Northern Prancer a full sister to El Gran Senor, who is Gone West’s damsire.

The second inbreeding is to Tamerett. She is Gone West’s second dam, and she produced Tentam, the second sire of San Romano. For now, Sensational Slam is beating up on the Canadian Colts, but he could venture south of the border as the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile draws near.


Next week, we’ll review other promising juveniles on the road to the Breeders’ Cup.