Handicapping the Withers Stakes

Dortmund vs. Firing Line in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes here.

 

The 2015 Withers Stakes (G-3) pits Jerome Stakes hero El Kabeir against a seemingly over matched field of last out maiden winners. Early February is when the less precocious runners begin to mature and improve. Kiaran McLaughlin has been hogging the Wither’s winner’s circle. He’s had his picture taken three times in the last ten years. Todd Pletcher has captured the 1 1/16 mile race twice in that time frame. Both of them have contestants who, if they run as expected, could pull an upset on the pretty gray El Kabeir.

The Big Hoss

EL KABEIR (Scat Daddy - Great Venue, by Unbridled's Song) kicked off his three year old season with a scintillating victory in the 1 mile 70 yard Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct last month, galloping under the wire 4 ½ lengths ahead of his nearest competitor. El Kabeir’s immediate family is loaded with talent. Four of his dam’s five half siblings own blacktype. Read his pedigree profile here.

 

 

Contenders

FAR FROM OVER (Blame - Alchemist, by A.P. Indy) won his debut on December12. He was briefly headed but determinedly came back at the wire. It was more than six lengths back to the third place finisher. The time for the 1 mile 70 yards was 1:43.11, which was the second-fastest time for that distance in the racing week. For comparison, El Kabeir won the Jerome in 1:44.69. Far From Over has the best pedigree in the field and the farther the better for him. He is a half brother to a listed winner and to the multiple G-1 stakes placed And Why Not. His dam placed in 1 1/8 mile Grade 3 stakes. She’s a full sister to Turnback the Alarm Handicap heroine ALTESSE. Far From Over’s second dam is ALDIZA, who won graded events from 6 ½ furlongs to 1 1/8 miles. Far From Over is inbred to the blue hen COURTLY DEE through full sisters Althea, the second dam of Blame’s sire Arch, and Aishah, who is Far From Over’s third dam. The todd Pletcher trainee worked a second to last bullet in preparation for the Withers.

 

MARCH (Blame - Lifeinthefastlane, by Unbridled's Song) earned his maiden victory by a neck in his second start. Like Far From Over, March is a son of Breeders’ Cup Classic hero Blame and March should improve with maturity and distance. He’s a half brother to Bay Shore Stakes (G-3) hero EIGHTYFIVEINAFIFTY. There’s little blacktype in March’s Claiborne-bred immediate female family, however, this is the distaff line of the Grade 1 winning sire SEEKING THE GOLD, Champion Juvenile Filly QUEEN OF THE STAGE, Remsen hero FAST PLAY and REVIEWER, sire of the legendary RUFFIAN. Conditioned by Chad Brown, March prepped with a pre-race bullet breeze.

 

CLASSY CLASS (Discreetly Mine - Collegiate, by Saarland) was tossed into the 1 1/8 mile Remsen last year after a score at 6 ½ furlongs. Not surprising that he weakened in the stretch. Classy Class’s stakes placed dam is a half sister to a stakes winning turf miler and stakes winning sprinter. The colt receives stamina attributes through his damsire, but his sire and distaff line strongly lean towards miler speed. Classy Class may find 1 1/16 miles at the top of his scope. The Kiaran McLaughlin trainee draws the rail which could help.

Long Shot Chance

UNRIVALED (Super Saver - Safely, by Unbridled) began his career last July in sprints, but it wasn’t until late December when he put it all together, easily out distancing a full field of maidens going a mile at PARX. Yes, the time was a yawn inducing 1:43.52, however, Unrivaled galloped to a 15 length win, little more than a paid breeze. So what’s so special about this colt? He’s an April foal whose pedigree suggests that Unrivaled should improve with maturity and could handle classic distances. His dam is a full sister to HONEST MAN, who hit his best stride as a four and five year old, with victories in the Mineshaft Handicap at 1 1/6 miles and the 1 1/8 miles Philip H. Iselin Stakes, both Grade 3 events. Unrivaled’s second dam OATH won the Spinaway (G-1) and she’s a half sister to Champion Juvenile WAR PASS. Unrivaled could be one of those colts who will mature rapidly.

TENCENDUR (Warrior's Reward - Still Secret, by Hennessy) got up to beat state-bred maidens by ¾ length in his last race. He was pinned on the inside for most of the race with nowhere to go and had a tough time getting out for running room. Once he was free, the George Weaver colt lengthened stride nicely. The son of the top ten Freshman Sire is a half brother to the multiple restricted stakes winner MOTHER RUSSIA. In his debut, Tencendur was beaten by over six lengths by March On. Tencendur’s speed figure improved in his second start and he gets a jockey upgrade to Cornelio Velasquez.

Not today

GENERAL BELLAMY (Bellamy Road - Sweet Again, by Awesome Again) had an excuse in the Jerome, as he bobbled at the start of the race. He finished a one-paced third, never gaining ground at any point. The colt’s dam is an unraced daughter of Alabama Stakes (G-1) winner SWEET SYMPHONY. Slow but steady describes this colt. His speed figures are improving, but very slowly, and his works are conservative, but steady. Slow and steady may win some races, but not at 1 1/16 miles at Aqueduct.

SELECTIONS

Track bias: Early speed rules on Aqueduct’s inner track. 20% of the meet’s winners at a mile and beyond have wired the field. Pace pressers have finished first 46% of the time.

El Kabeir is a free-running colt who likes to wing it on or near the lead. That and his far outside post, combined with his miler pedigree could make El Kabeir a vulnerable favorite if one of the other contenders takes it to him early. Could a last out maiden winner beat the Champ? Sure, Todd Pletcher did it with Revolutionary in 2013. His contender Far From Over has the speed and could pull an upset.

#2 FAR FROM OVER

#7 EL KABEIR

#3 MARCH

#5 UNRIVALED – longshot play

Gotham Stakes Trend

A trend is starting to appear in New York. A Gotham winner has also been victorious in a Classic race every eleven years.

Eleven years ago, Red Bullet won the Gotham and went on to win a Classic Race, when he spoiled Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus’ Triple Crown bid in the Preakness. Eleven years earlier, Easy Goer pulled a Gotham/Belmont Stakes double, getting his revenge on the Derby/Preakness hero Sunday Silence. Perhaps we’ll see a Gotham/Classic winner in Saturday’s field.

All eyes are on Uncle Mo’s workmate STAY THIRSTY (Bernardini – Marozina, by Storm Bird). The Grade 1 Stakes placed colt has been holding his own in the mornings and should be fit for his three year old debut. Stay Thirsty has a stamina oriented pedigree perfect for the Classics. He is a half brother to freshman sire Andromeda’s Hero and his precocious full brother Superfly. The Pletcher barn is winning stakes races at a 19% clip this year.

Whirlaway hero TOBY'S CORNER (Bellamy Road – Brandons Ride, by Mister Frisky) is riding a three race win streak and is the logical second choice. Toby is already a winner over the Aqueduct surface at 1 1/6 miles. His second crop sire is getting winners up to 1 mile 70 yards over dirt and Polytrack. Damsire won the Santa Anita Derby and was third in the Preakness. 1 Toby's Corner is a half-brother to stakes winner Bushmills Best, but that’s about it for stakes horses in the first three generations. The Motion barn is successful with 19% of last out winners.

PREACHINTOTHEDEVIL (Pulpit – Acey Deucey, by Abaginone) was a distant third behind Toby’s Corner in the Whirlaway. He’s had a couple of really good breezes and should be ready to go. Preachintothedevil’s dam was a multiple graded stakes winning sprinter/miler. His damsire, a son of Devil’s Bag, won two Grade 3 sprint races. Preachintothedevil’s BRISNET speed figures have improved in every race. The Contessa barn grabs 12% of graded stakes races.

Grace 2 placed NACHO SAINT (Yes It’s True – Flashy, by Wild Again) changed his running style and finally won his maiden after going winless in four attempts last year. To be fair, he’s been in the money in all of his starts, but he’s been chasing pacesetters over speed-favoring tracks. Nacho Saint’s dam is a half-sister to Kings Lyn, dam of Sara Louise and this year’s Debutante Stakes winner Just Louise. The Kelly Breen stable has only 11% stakes winners, but gets 14% winners in their second start off of a layoff.

Three colts who have won their last two attempts will step into graded stakes competition to see if they can make headway on the Derby trail.

NORMAN ASBJORNSON (Real Quiet – Merryland Missy, by Citidancer) has won his last two races by over seven lengths. He gets plenty of stamina from his sire and his dam was a stakes winning sprinter. His second damsire Smarten won at 1 ¼ miles and placed going 1 ½ miles. Norman Asbjornson’s BRISNET speed figures have jumped in his last two races, indicating that he’s starting to mature. The Christopher Grove stable wins 19% of stakes races, which is pretty good for a moderate-sized stable.

STARSHIP CAESAR (Repent – Starship Honor, by Honor Grades) tests deep waters today. After winning a maiden claimer at Calder, He took an allowance race for new owners at Gulfstream. Starship Caesar has a middle-distance pedigree. His sire Repent was a middle distance horse, winning at 1 1/16 miles and placing second in the Travers Stakes. Starship Caesar’s dam was unplaced in five starts and there’s no blacktype in his first three generations. His damsire is a half brother to S.P. Indy and Summer Squall.

Trainer Steve Asmussen snatched DAWLY (Awesome Again – Usrah, by Tiznow) from a maiden claiming race last December. Dawly has a pedigree loaded with stamina. He is the first foal for his unraced dam who is a half sister to the Grade 2 winner Doubles Partner. Further, his second dam is a full sister to Champion Serena’s Song. The gelding should improve with distance and could be one to watch.

THE FED EASED (Montbrook – Valid Invitation, by Take Me Out) dominated maidens in his second try and now faces stakes competition. The Fed Eased has a miler pedigree. He’s a half brother to stakes placed Sweet Enticement and his unraced dam is a half sister to stakes winner Rocky River. The Fed Eased’s breezes are steady and the Violette barn is winning with 20% of their charges this year.

The inappropriately named ISN'T HE PERFECT won against maiden claimers last November and hasn’t been close racing against optional claimer and allowance company. He has the pedigree to do best at two turns and also has an excellent mud pedigree. His works are slow and the Shivmangai barn has a 7% win rate this year.

SELECTIONS:

How the track is playing: 40% of the winners have wired the field in route races. Alternatively 40% of winners win as mid-pack runners.

STAY THIRSTY has the pedigree to do well in Classic races. He ran against some of the best last year and has the class edge. Is he cranked for his return to the races? He’s been working well and will be the chalk. TOBY’S CORNER’S has improved in every race and has the benefit of a recent race. Despite winning his maiden last time out, NACHO SAINT kept classy company last year and is graded stakes placed. He won’t get away with a :24 first quarter, but he’s working well and could surprise if the top two falter. PREACHINTOTHEDEVIL was no match for TOBY’S CORNER last time out. The colt’s running style works against him, but he’s one to use in the exotics. DAWLY has the pedigree to relish longer distances and has a recent race under his girth. NORMAN ASBJORNSON is ready to take the next step and he could grab part of the money.

#5 STAY THIRSTY
#4 TOBY’S CORNER
#2 NACHO SAINT
#9 DAWLY - longshot selection