Handicapping the Withers Stakes

Dortmund vs. Firing Line in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes here.

 

The 2015 Withers Stakes (G-3) pits Jerome Stakes hero El Kabeir against a seemingly over matched field of last out maiden winners. Early February is when the less precocious runners begin to mature and improve. Kiaran McLaughlin has been hogging the Wither’s winner’s circle. He’s had his picture taken three times in the last ten years. Todd Pletcher has captured the 1 1/16 mile race twice in that time frame. Both of them have contestants who, if they run as expected, could pull an upset on the pretty gray El Kabeir.

The Big Hoss

EL KABEIR (Scat Daddy - Great Venue, by Unbridled's Song) kicked off his three year old season with a scintillating victory in the 1 mile 70 yard Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct last month, galloping under the wire 4 ½ lengths ahead of his nearest competitor. El Kabeir’s immediate family is loaded with talent. Four of his dam’s five half siblings own blacktype. Read his pedigree profile here.

 

 

Contenders

FAR FROM OVER (Blame - Alchemist, by A.P. Indy) won his debut on December12. He was briefly headed but determinedly came back at the wire. It was more than six lengths back to the third place finisher. The time for the 1 mile 70 yards was 1:43.11, which was the second-fastest time for that distance in the racing week. For comparison, El Kabeir won the Jerome in 1:44.69. Far From Over has the best pedigree in the field and the farther the better for him. He is a half brother to a listed winner and to the multiple G-1 stakes placed And Why Not. His dam placed in 1 1/8 mile Grade 3 stakes. She’s a full sister to Turnback the Alarm Handicap heroine ALTESSE. Far From Over’s second dam is ALDIZA, who won graded events from 6 ½ furlongs to 1 1/8 miles. Far From Over is inbred to the blue hen COURTLY DEE through full sisters Althea, the second dam of Blame’s sire Arch, and Aishah, who is Far From Over’s third dam. The todd Pletcher trainee worked a second to last bullet in preparation for the Withers.

 

MARCH (Blame - Lifeinthefastlane, by Unbridled's Song) earned his maiden victory by a neck in his second start. Like Far From Over, March is a son of Breeders’ Cup Classic hero Blame and March should improve with maturity and distance. He’s a half brother to Bay Shore Stakes (G-3) hero EIGHTYFIVEINAFIFTY. There’s little blacktype in March’s Claiborne-bred immediate female family, however, this is the distaff line of the Grade 1 winning sire SEEKING THE GOLD, Champion Juvenile Filly QUEEN OF THE STAGE, Remsen hero FAST PLAY and REVIEWER, sire of the legendary RUFFIAN. Conditioned by Chad Brown, March prepped with a pre-race bullet breeze.

 

CLASSY CLASS (Discreetly Mine - Collegiate, by Saarland) was tossed into the 1 1/8 mile Remsen last year after a score at 6 ½ furlongs. Not surprising that he weakened in the stretch. Classy Class’s stakes placed dam is a half sister to a stakes winning turf miler and stakes winning sprinter. The colt receives stamina attributes through his damsire, but his sire and distaff line strongly lean towards miler speed. Classy Class may find 1 1/16 miles at the top of his scope. The Kiaran McLaughlin trainee draws the rail which could help.

Long Shot Chance

UNRIVALED (Super Saver - Safely, by Unbridled) began his career last July in sprints, but it wasn’t until late December when he put it all together, easily out distancing a full field of maidens going a mile at PARX. Yes, the time was a yawn inducing 1:43.52, however, Unrivaled galloped to a 15 length win, little more than a paid breeze. So what’s so special about this colt? He’s an April foal whose pedigree suggests that Unrivaled should improve with maturity and could handle classic distances. His dam is a full sister to HONEST MAN, who hit his best stride as a four and five year old, with victories in the Mineshaft Handicap at 1 1/6 miles and the 1 1/8 miles Philip H. Iselin Stakes, both Grade 3 events. Unrivaled’s second dam OATH won the Spinaway (G-1) and she’s a half sister to Champion Juvenile WAR PASS. Unrivaled could be one of those colts who will mature rapidly.

TENCENDUR (Warrior's Reward - Still Secret, by Hennessy) got up to beat state-bred maidens by ¾ length in his last race. He was pinned on the inside for most of the race with nowhere to go and had a tough time getting out for running room. Once he was free, the George Weaver colt lengthened stride nicely. The son of the top ten Freshman Sire is a half brother to the multiple restricted stakes winner MOTHER RUSSIA. In his debut, Tencendur was beaten by over six lengths by March On. Tencendur’s speed figure improved in his second start and he gets a jockey upgrade to Cornelio Velasquez.

Not today

GENERAL BELLAMY (Bellamy Road - Sweet Again, by Awesome Again) had an excuse in the Jerome, as he bobbled at the start of the race. He finished a one-paced third, never gaining ground at any point. The colt’s dam is an unraced daughter of Alabama Stakes (G-1) winner SWEET SYMPHONY. Slow but steady describes this colt. His speed figures are improving, but very slowly, and his works are conservative, but steady. Slow and steady may win some races, but not at 1 1/16 miles at Aqueduct.

SELECTIONS

Track bias: Early speed rules on Aqueduct’s inner track. 20% of the meet’s winners at a mile and beyond have wired the field. Pace pressers have finished first 46% of the time.

El Kabeir is a free-running colt who likes to wing it on or near the lead. That and his far outside post, combined with his miler pedigree could make El Kabeir a vulnerable favorite if one of the other contenders takes it to him early. Could a last out maiden winner beat the Champ? Sure, Todd Pletcher did it with Revolutionary in 2013. His contender Far From Over has the speed and could pull an upset.

#2 FAR FROM OVER

#7 EL KABEIR

#3 MARCH

#5 UNRIVALED – longshot play

Sam F. Davis Stakes – Handicapping the Race

 GET THE SAN VICENTE STAKES HANDICAPPING SELECTIONS AT HORSE RACING NATION

During the past 30 editions of the Sam F. Davis Stakes, several horses who have won or placed in the race have continued on to do well either on the Triple Crown trail or in the top mid-summer races. Blue Grass Cat later finished second in both the 2006 Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. A year later, Any Given Saturday won the Haskell Invitational (G-1), and the following year, Musket Man was third in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. In 2031, this prep race for the Tampa Bay Derby was removed as a Kentucky Derby Points Qualifier and we’ve seen a loss in quality in the last two fields.

That hasn’t stopped twelve hopefuls from entering this year’s 1 1/16 mile Grade Three event. The field consists of the usual last out maiden winners, optional claimers looking for blacktype and some listed stakes runners. Nine of the twelve colts won or placed in their last start.

The Favorites

AMI'S FLATTER (Flatter - Galloping Ami, by Victory Gallop) made up ground in the one mile Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream last time out, finishing second by 1 ¾ lengths to the speedy Bluegrass Singer. That one came back to finish third recently in the Holy Bull Stakes (G-2). Ami’s Flatter should excel with distance. He’s a half brother to ARAGORN AMI, who won the Martha Washington Stakes. Ami’s Flatter’s dam is an unraced full sister to stakes winner VICTORIOUS AMI, dam of multiple stakes winner AMI’S HOLIDAY, a winner from 1 1/16 miles to 1 ½ miles. Ami’s Flatter came back to work a post-race bullet and should be ready to take a step forward.

 

CATALINA RED (Munnings - Lovely Dream, by Freud) has speed on the rail. He showed his love for the Tampa circuit winning both of his starts at the track. The son of Munnings won his maiden while setting a stakes record of 1:09.32 for six furlongs in the Inaugural Stakes, winning by 7 ¼ lengths. Next out, Catalina Red sat slightly off of the pace in the seven-furlong Pasco Stakes before beating eventual Hutcheson Stakes runner-up X Y Jet in a track record time of 1:21.40. Catalina Red’s pedigree is speed oriented. His sire’s progeny haven’t won beyond a mile seventy yards. Damsire Freud, a full brother to Giant’s Causeway, offers some stamina, but Catalina Red’s distaff line is primarily sprinter/miler oriented. He’s a half brother to Whisky Bravo, a stakes placed turf sprinter and Catalina Red’s first five dams all own minor blacktype. The Chad Stewart barn is 0-7 in graded stakes.

 

OCEAN KNIGHT (Curlin - Ocean Goddess, by Stormy Atlantic) Ocean Knight made short work of a herd of maidens running six furlongs at Aqueduct last month in a sharp 1:11.94, while being geared down. Ocean Knight’s sire two-time Horse of the Year Curlin is making his mark as one of the best studs in America. Ocean Knight’s dam is a half sister to the stakes winning sprinter LIBBY'S HALO  and stakes placed Mister Alimony. Conditioned by Kiaran McLaughlin, Ocean Knight had a strong four furlong breeze at Palm Meadows in his last work.

Spoilers

MY JOHNNY BE GOOD (Colonel John - Im So Fine, by Elusive Quality) flashed his love for Tampa in a big way with a 14 length win over optional claimers in a swift 1:09.33 for six furlongs. He’s Crittenden’s stablemate and appears to be better placed here. There’s little blacktype in My Johnny Be Good’s first two generations, but he has hails from the same family as Grade 1 winning sprinter THE LUMBER GUY. The colt worked a pre-race bullet and should improve in his second start off of a layoff.

 

ROYAL SON (Tiznow - Mama Nadine, by A.P. Indy) won his maiden last out upon disqualification of the winner. The Todd Pletcher trainee has the pedigree of a late-bloomer and should love Classic distances. Royal Son’s dam MAMA NADINE won a stakes race at one mile seventy yards. Royal Son’s second dam COUNTESS DIANA was a Champion Two Year Old Filly. In five of the last nine years, Todd Pletcher has won the Sam Davis Stakes, including last year with VINCEREMOS.

Long Shots Worth a Look

DIVINING ROD (Tapit - Precious Kitten, by Catienus) won his debut in an off the turf mile contest at Laurel. Next time out against Crittenden, Divining Rod was stuck on the inside and wasn’t able to get a clear run until late. His dam is a multiple Grade 1 winner on the lawn and a full sister to Champion Turf Horse and sire KITTEN’S JOY. A half sister to Precious Kitten bore Champion Two Year Old Filly DREAMING OF ANNA, who won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G-1) over dirt and the Summer Stakes (G-3) over turf. By the hot sire Tapit, Divining Rod could develop into a versatile, top-class runner.

 

COOMER (Midshipman - Dixie Satin, by Dynaformer) picked a tough place to make his first start of the year. He won impressively against $50,000 claimers last November at Churchill going 1 1/16 miles. He has a speed over stamina pedigree and there’s some minor blacktype in the second generation of his distaff line. Coomer breezed a pre-race five furlong bullet. I always respect entries from the Maker barn and Leparoux stays on the colt. Could be something here.

Toss

CRITTENDEN (Distorted Humor - Calla Lily, by Pulpit) won his last two races at Tampa, including a 2 ¼ length score over Divining Rod last time out. What’s not to like? The Eoin Harty conditioned colt was trounced 17 lengths in his only dirt start. This colt’s future appears to be on the turf, but naturally, when one has an aspiring three year old at this time of year, it never hurts to take a shot in a Derby prep. He’s a half brother to the G-2 stakes placed turf runner Side Road. Crittenden’s dam is multiple stakes placed over the lawn and was unplaced in three starts on dirt. She’s a half sister to Arlington Million (G-1) hero HARDEST CORE. Yes, Crittenden worked a second to last bullet on the dirt, however, a controlled work on dirt cannot emulate race conditions.

 

BANDAGES (Any Given Saturday - Beauty Is, by Personal Flag) is Catalina Red’s less accomplished stablemate. He won his maiden at Tampa and has two five furlong works under his girth. Four of his six half siblings own blacktype, including the multiple stakes veterans WAYZATA BAY and YOURNOTTHEBOSSOFME. Bandages should enjoy the distance, but his late pace speed figures are poor.

 

BROTHER BOBO (Kantharos - Private Prom Party, by Private Terms) was a distant sixth when stretching out to a mile against stakes company in the Mucho Macho Man. Freshman sire Kantharos is getting offspring who are showing distance limitations past a mile. Brother Bobo is a half brother to the talented stakes winning sprinter RIBO BOBO and stakes placed sprinter Private Money Game. The trainer/jockey combo of Servis and Saez are 0-10.

 

G FIVE (Flashy Bull - Fly Don't Drive, by Harlan's Holiday) can’t beat optional claimers at Gulfstream or Gulfstream West. Despite this race being at Tampa, there’s a solid field in the Sam Davis and G Five is outclassed on paper. G Five’s dam is a half to a multiple Grade 3 sprinter and another half sister bore Del Mar Oaks heroine SUMMER SOIREE. G Five hasn’t shown much speed and this seems to be an odd place for the Pletcher trainee.

 

BEARS PERSONALITY (Awesome Again - Yearly Attitude, by Event of the Year) will be tackling dirt for the first time in his five race career. He needed time to get his act together at Woodbine, but he won his last two starts. There is one blacktype earner in his first three distaff generations. Bears Personality has average to good works at Palm Meadows, but his late pace speed figures are poor. He likes to be up near the pace and will be forced to go wide from his outside post.

Selections

Only two of the last ten winners of the Sam Davis Stakes won over the track last time out. Front runners and pace pressers have had the most success in the race. The rail is winning at 17% this meet.

#3 AMI'S FLATTER

#2 ROYAL SON

#1 CATALINA RED

#5 DIVINING ROD – longshot play

El Kabeir vs. the Rest in Jerome Stakes

The Jerome Stakes kicks off is the first New York prep race for colts aiming to enter the starting gate in the Kentucky Derby. The Withers, Gotham and Wood Memorial make up the quadrumvirate.

Eight colts will take on the morning line favorite, El Kabeir, who was last seen winning the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Read his pedigree profile.

Greatest Challenge:

The only colt in the field with blacktype is Nasa (Smarty Jones - Shootforthestars, by Seattle Slew). The bay colt galloped to a 2 ½ length victory in the restricted Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes, a race his sire won. Like the popular 2004 Kentucky Derby champ, Nasa races for the same connections as his sire. Nasa has a quality pedigree. He’s a full brother to the G-1 winning sprinter CENTRALINTELIGENCE; a ¾ brother to My Elusive Star and a half to General Consensus and Golden Rainbow, all stakes placed. Nasa’s unraced dam is a half sister to Super Derby (G-2) champ FANTASTICAT. Their dam LOTTA DANCING (by Alydar) is a graded stakes winner and third dam LOTKA (by Danzig) was a multiple graded stakes winner from a mile to 1 ½ miles. Like El Kabeir, Nasa has won each of his victories on the lead.

 

Allowance Winners:

Three Jerome Stake’s entrants won at the allowance level last time out.

Mini Cosmo (Unbridled Energy - Eyedontblink, by El Corredor) won his debut, but was nosed out for third by Nasa in his next start. Mini Cosmo came back to beat allowance foes at PARX by 1 ½ lengths. Mini Cosmo has no blacktype earners in his first three generations.

 

Now We Are Free (First Samurai - Ice Cool Kitty, by Tomorrows Cat) enters with a two-race win streak under his girth. After besting maiden claimers by 1 ½ lengths at 1 1/16 miles, the Michelle Nevin trainee beat allowance foes by a head. Now We Are Free’s dam is a multiple stakes winner from six furlongs to 1 1/8 miles. There isn’t much blacktype in his family, however, the colt is inbred to the good mare Sand Buggy through full brothers DIXIELAND BAND, First Samurai’s damsire and NORTHROP, Now We Are Free’s third damsire.

 

Ackeret (Mach Ride - Lady Zieg, by Touch Gold) sandwiched a loss in a listed stakes between his maiden and allowance victories. All three starts were at six furlongs. Ackeret’s dam is a half sister to the turf stakes veteran CLASSIC CAMPAIGN and Ackeret’s second dam is a G-3 stakes veteran over the lawn. Ackert’s owners won the 2013 Jerome with VYJACK.

 

Getting another chance:

Todd Pletcher sends out two charges who disappointed in the Remsen Stakes, where they finished last and second to last.

Ostrolenka (Musket Man - Pumpkin's Pride, by Louis Quatorze) raced four and five wide in the Remsen and gave up by the half, fading to 32 lengths behind Leave the Light On. He owns victories at the state-bred level. Ostrolenka is a half brother to multiple stakes placed miler Great Gracie Dane (by Royal Academy). We have to go back a few generations to find the class in his distaff line. Third dam is Champion Filly and blue hen QUEEN EMPRESS. She’s the fifth dam of Champion Older Mare JEWEL PRINCESS.

Royal Burgh (Street Sense - Amazed by Grace, by Bowman's Band) for another try for a graded stakes win. After winning his maiden by a neck, Royal Burgh bobbled at the start of the Remsen and was never in the game, finishing 28 lengths behind Leave the Light On. There’s little blacktype in Royal Burgh’s female family, although his dam is a stakes winning sprinter and placed in a grade three race.

 

Bringing up the field:

General Bellamy (Bellamy Road - Sweet Again, by Awesome Again) found the third time is the charm, winning his maiden by 3 ½ lengths going a mile at Aqueduct. The colt’s dam is an unraced daughter of Alabama Stakes (G-1) winner SWEET SYMPHONY. Bill Mott trained the G-1 winner and also trains her grandson.

Tencendur (Warrior's Reward - Still Secret, by Hennessy) is still a maiden. The son of the top ten Freshman Sire is a half brother to the multiple restricted stakes winner MOTHER RUSSIA.

Selections

There are no world beaters here and it looks like a good opportunity for El Kabeir to pick up an easy check and more points towards the Kentucky Derby. However, there’s a lot of speed in here. Nasa, Ostrolenka, Now We Are Free and possibly Mini Cosmo could all vie for the lead.

Nasa may give the graded stakes winner his toughest challenge. Roya Burgh could rebound and Ackeret could get a nice stalking trip.

#9 EL KABEIR

#8 NASA

#4 OSTROLENKA

#1 MINI COSMO – LONGSHOT PICK

STARS OF TOMORROW – Pedigree Notes

The juvenile colts and fillies will be out in full force on Saturday at Aqueduct, Churchill Downs and Calder…uh, Gulfstream West, as it’s known now. Churchill and Gulfstream will offer maiden, allowance and stakes races for the youngsters. Perhaps we’ll see a preview of next year’s Kentucky Derby, Preakness or Belmont Stakes winner or future older superstar.

Below are pedigree notes on the maiden and allowance race contenders, plus the Golden Rod and Demoiselle Stakes. Many of these babies were mentioned this summer on The Kiddie List. You’ll find the Remsen and Kentucky Jockey Club analysis and selections at the Pedigree Power blog on Horse Racing Nation.

CHURCHILL

RACE 1 | Optional Claiming | 1 mile | 2YO Fillies

ZEVEN (Lookin At Lucky - Boot Scoot N Run, by Storm Boot) half to stakes placed Kowboy Boots (Kodiak Kowboy). Their dam is a half to stakes placed Bushwacked. That’s it for blacktype in this family.

TRIGGER FINGER (U S Ranger - Vibration, by Catienus) Her dam is a full sister to stakes winning turf miler SELF MADE MAN and also to the stakes placed turf miler Rules of Honor. Third dam is the blue hen Kitten’s First, dam of Champion Turf Male and top sire KITTEN’S JOY, multiple Grade 1 winner PRECIOUS KITTEN and granddam of Champion 2YO Filly DREAMING OF ANNA, stakes winners and sires LEWIS MICHAEL and JUSTENUFFHUMOR. Trigger Finger has a terrific turf pedigree and won her debut on the turf. She’ll try to transfer her winning ways to the dirt.

TIGER RIDE (Candy Ride (ARG) - Royal Tigress, by Storm Cat) is a half to the stakes winning sprinter/miler OL DONYO (Curlin) and stakes placed Legend (Tiznow). Their dam is a Group 3 winning sprinter in Ireland. Third dam SUMMER MOOD was a Canadian Champion Sprinter. Tiger Ride has a good pedigree for turf and won her debut over the surface. Like Trigger Finger, she’ll try to do the same over the dirt.

BIG RED SEVEN (Hold Me Back - All Sevens, by A.P. Indy) His Freshman Sire, a son of Giant’s Causeway was best suited for turf although his offspring have no problems winning over the dirt. Big Red Seven’s second dam SIX SEXY SISTERS won 2 of 3 starts, including the Colleen Stakes. This is the distaff family of MGSW sire BEAU GENIUS.

LAVENDER CHRISSIE (Scat Daddy - Lavender Baby, by Rubiano) is a half sister to Grade 3 winning sprinter BABY J (J Be K), stakes winner and turf Grade 1 placed LAUREATE CONDUCTOR (Bernstein) and multiple stakes placed Que Posse (Posse). The class skipped a generation in this family as we have to go back to the third dam, multiple stakes winner HOT MILK to find blacktype.

HARLAN'S DESTINY (Harlan's Holiday - Mantekilla, by Lemon Drop Kid) takes on open company after out-classing state-bred stakes fillies by over seven lengths in the Rachel's Turn and the West Virginia Breeders' Classic Stakes. Her dam is a half to a stakes winner. Two-time Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint heroine MIZDIRECTION and Grade 1 winner HOOH WHY are part of this female family.

RACE 2 | Optional Claiming | 6F | 2YO Fillies

MOVIE MYSTERY (Flatter - Tiz a Fantasy, by Tiznow) her dam is a half to a stakes winning sprinter and second dam FANTASY ANGEL won the Comely Stakes (G-3). This filly is bred to go long, however she won her debut sprinting.

TAYLOR S (Medaglia d'Oro - Miss Macy Sue, by Trippi) cuts back to a sprint after speed/fade in the Rags to Riches Stakes. Her dam is a multiple stakes winning sprinter. Taylor S has plenty of speed in her distaff line as she’s inbred to the two-time Champion Sprinter TA WEE.

CLASSY CORINTHIAN (Corinthian - Can't Buy Class, by Elusive Quality) No blacktype in her immediate family, although all four of her siblings, which are fillies, are winners. Their dam is a half to two stakes placed runners and this is the female family of popular Grade 1 stakes veteran BOBOMAN.

ZENITTOWINIT (Zensational - Silver Star, by Silver Deputy) her dam is a half to multiple stakes winner and sire GREELEY’S CONQUEST, G-3 heroine ITTY BITTY PRETTY, and three stakes placed runners. The second dam TIPSY GIRL is also a multiple stakes placed sprinter.

EMPRESSIVE HUMOR (Distorted Humor - Empressive Lady, by Empire Maker) was no factor in the Adirondack or Matron Stakes, so she drops into allowance company. With Empire Maker and A.P. Indy as her first two damsires, she has the pedigree to run all day and might need at least a mile to stretch her legs. Her dam and second dam were both stakes placed sprinters.

SILVER ALLURE Unbridled's Song - Only Seventeen, by Exploit) is a half to Milady Handicap (G-2) heroine MADE FOR MAGIC (Cape Canaveral).

I'M A LOOKER (Henny Hughes - Our Mariella, by Victory Gallop) her dam is a half to a stakes winning sprinter. The third dam, LAKEWAY MISS, was 1977 Champion 2YO Filly.

RACE 3 | MSW | 1 1/16 miles | 2YO Fillies

TALE OF CLASS (Tale of Ekati - Classic Slew, by Seattle Slew) is a half to turf stakes winner SURGING RIVER (Gone West), plus turf stakes placed runners Comet Kris (Kris S.) and Ford Every Stream (Seeking the Gold). You read that right, her dam is 20+ years old and by SEATTLE SLEW. Tale of Class’ second dam and third dams are the blue hens. Second dam No Class bore Champions GRAY CLASSIC, REGAL CLASSIC, SKY CLASSIC and DANCE SMARTLY, plus No Class is the grand dam of Champion DANCETHRUTHEDAWN, top sire SMART STRIKE, Queens Plate hero SCATTER THE GOLD, also third dam of G-1 winner MORENO, etc. Third dam is blue hen Classy Quillo.

SAVE OUR OCEANS (Super Saver - Atlantic Ocean, by Stormy Atlantic) is a half to turf stakes placed runner Golden Galleon (Medaglia d'Oro). Their dam is a G-3 winner over dirt and turf, and her wins include the Miesque (G-3) Santa Ysabel, and Kentucky Cup Juvenile Fillies.

MARKET APPEAL (After Market - Setareh, by Sky Classic) her dam is a stakes winning miler who placed third in the Vanity (G-1) at 1 1/8 miles. Her half sisters have bore several listed stakes winners/placers.

PURR (Bluegrass Cat - French Kiss, by Hussonet) this well-named filly’s dam was stakes placed at two, and as an older stakes winner, won at 1 1/6 miles. The dam is a half to multiple G-1 winner ON FIRE BABY, who is also a graded stakes winning 2YO. Another half sister, HIGH HEELS, is a stakes placed juvie and won the G-2 Fantasy at three.

SUPER SAKS (Sky Mesa - Broadway Debut, by Unbridled's Song) is a half to juvie SP Mr Bluegrass Music (by Bluegrass Cat). Another half sib was unplaced in 4 starts at two. Their dam Broadway Debut is a half to MGSP Voodoo (by Petionville) and the second and third dams own blacktype.

LASSOFTHEMOHICANS (Indian Charlie - Dream Street, by Tale of the Cat) her unraced dam is a half to Champion Sprinter HOUSEBUSTER. The multiple stakes winning turf sprinter SOMETHING EXTRA (by Indian Charlie), G-2 winner NICOLE H, multiple stakes veteran TAX REFUND and stakes winning sprinter MEAL PENALTY are all part of the immediate (2^nd gen.) female family.

STROKE PLAY (Warrior's Reward - Candy Ma'am, by Lemon Drop Kid) One of two half sibs to race placed as a 2YO and the dam placed in her second start. The second and third dams own minor blacktype. Freshman Sire WARRIOR'S REWARD, a son of MEDAGLIA D'ORO, is off to a huge start at stud.

SUPER STYLISH (Super Saver - Stylish Manner, by Touch Gold) is a half to G-3 winner NONIOS (Pleasantly Perfect) who was second in the Haskell Inv. (G-1), also a half to juvie stakes winner CITY COOL (City Zip), and stakes placed Super Robusto (Smoke Glacken). Her dam is a half to G-3 stakes winning turfer KISS THE DEVIL, who is the dam of multiple turf stakes winners KISS MINE and KISS MOON.

INCLUDE BETTY (Include - Betty's Solutions, by Eltish) is a half to Hollywood Starlet (G-1) runner-up Blonde Fog (Divine Park) and an English stakes placed runner. Second dam is multiple graded stakes winner BETTY LOBELIA. Grade 1 winning sprinter MY TRUSTY CAT and multiple stakes veteran SOMETHINGABOUTBETTY are part of this immediate family.

RACE 4 | MSW | 1 1/8 MILES (Turf) | 2YO Colts/geldings

OO DE LALLY (Midshipman - Home Run Kiss, by Bertrando) his dam is a full sister to G-1 turf winning miler KARELIAN and a half to G-2 SP turf miler COLGAN'S CHIP. This colt’s pedigree leans more towards sprint speed rather than middle distances.

RANSOM THE MOON (Malibu Moon - Count to Three, by Red Ransom) his dam is a SW sprinter and a full sister to Canadian G-3 winner THNIK RED. The second dam COUNTUS IN is a three-time winner of the Maryland Ladies Handicap.

PAT'S SHOES (Eskendereya - Isabell's Shoes, by King of Kings (IRE)) is a half to SP runners Bell's Shoes (Mineshaft) and Amazing Shoes (Empire Maker). Their dam won the one mile Martha Washington stakes. She’s a half to multiple SW miler PROM SHOES and to the stakes winning sprinter WILDCAT SHOES. Second dam PINK SHOES and third dam FUN FLIGHT also won the Martha Washington. This is the female family of G-1 winning sprinter and sire ZENSATIONAL and MGSW DEPARTING.

TASK FORCE GLORY ( Badge of Silver - Glory Dancer, by Honour and Glory) is a half to SW GUNG HO and SP Kitten’s Dancer (both by Kittens Joy). The second dam is a G-2 winner and third dam is the important blue hen BLITEY, dam of DANCING SPREE, FANTASTIC FIND, (dam of MG1W FINDER’S FEE). Multiple stakes winning veteran T.D. VANCE and Champion 3YO Filly HEAVENLY PRIZE are also part of this illustrious distaff family.

STREET TOUGH (Street Sense - Dreamy Maiden, by Meadowlake) is a half to U.A.E. Derby (G-2) & Royal Lodge (Eng-G-2) winner DADDY LONG LEGS (Scat Daddy) and multiple stakes winning dirt sprinter TRES DREAM (Chester House). Their dam is a SW over dirt and the second dam is a stakes winner over dirt & turf.

HEY HEY IT'S D K (Exchange Rate - Latitude Forty, by Chester House) his dam is a MSW at 1 1/8 miles over the turf. The second dam Planchette was third in the Iroquois Stakes against 2YO colts.

TIZ TOWN (Tiznow - Bird Town, by Cape Town) Only four of seven half siblings of racing age made to the track. None own blacktype, and only two won. One of the two hit the board as a 2YO. The dam was Champion 3YO filly and half sister to Belmont Stakes winner and sire BIRDSTONE. The second dam Dear Birdie is a blue hen.

UNION RIVER (Tiznow - Our Khrysty, by Newfoundland) his dam is a MSW sprinter and a half sister to MG1W and sire BULLSBAY (Tiznow) and juvenile SW VEGAS NO SHOW (Hard Spun). The second and third dams were stakes placed as juveniles and fourth dam is the blue hen GRECIAN COMEDY, who was a juvie SW.

JEWISH HOLIDAY (Purim - Red Dot, by Diesis (GB)) his dam is a half to Kentucky Oaks heroine FLUTE.

RACE 5 | MSW | 6 1/2F | 2YO Fillies

PRETTY PERFECTION (Majesticperfection - Suchaprettygirl, by Mazel Trick) her dam is a half to MG1 winning turf router SWEET TALKER and multiple G-3 turfer SILVER MEDALLION. This is the distaff family of MGSW INCLUDE ME OUT and CHECK THE LABEL.

FASHIONABLY COOL (Tiznow - Kanani, by E Dubai) his dam is a half to many stakes winners, including LITTLEEXPECTATIONS, LITTLE SISTER, and VALID EXPECTATIONS. This is also the distaff family of MG1SW PURGE, JERSEY GIRL (dam of JERSEY TOWN), and stakes winner and leading CA sire VALID WAGER.

QUEEN BUXLEY (Super Saver - Finmore Queen, by Grand Slam) her dam is a half to Ruffian Stakes (G-1) POOL LAND and MSP My Chickadee.

ANYTHINGYOUCANDO (Curlin - Glorified, by Honour and Glory) her dam is a G-1 stakes placed sprinter and a half to MSP Gangbuster. The second, third and fourth dams are all stakes winners and Hollywood Starlet heroine DIPLOMAT LADY is part of this family.

MOON MEDAL (Medaglia d'Oro - Moonbow, by Distorted Humor) her dam is a half to G-3 winner BUFFUM, MSW STORMY WEST and SP Value Stream. Second dam STORM BEAUTY won the Miss Preakness Stakes and she’s a half to Champion Sprinter GOLD BEAUTY (dam of Champion and sire DAYJUR), G1 winner and blue hen MAPLEJINSKY (dam of Champion Older Mare SKY BEAUTY, plus granddam to TALE OF EKATI, PLEASANT HOME, PINE ISLAND, etc.). Third dam is blue hen STICK TO BEAUTY.

ROSE TO GLORY (Majestic Warrior - Rose Tiara, by St. Jovite) pretty gray filly is a half to SP sprinter Clayton's Trick (Phone Trick). Their dam’s half sister bore G-3 winner KID GRINDSTONE. Second dam is Champion Sprinter PRINCESS ROONEY.

RACE 6 | OPT. CLAIMER | 6F | 2YO colts/geldings

INSTANT REPLAY (Lemon Drop Kid - Run Kate Run, by Cherokee Run) is a full brother to MSW veteran KID KATE and a half to SW AMIE'S DINI (Bandini). The second and third dams both won stakes as 2YO.

HOLY BOSS (Street Boss - Holy Grace, by Holy Bull) his dam is a half sister to graded stakes winners MARK ONE and ROOKIE SENSATION. Another half sister foaled Ohio Derby hero PLEASANT PRINCE.

GREAT REZULTS (Zensational - Quarterly Report, by General Meeting) has a fairly precocious female family. His dam is a multiple SP full sister to SW YEARLY REPORT, the dam of recent Spinaway (G-1) winner CONDO COMMANDO and multiple SP CHECKLIST. Second dam FISCAL YEAR is a SW Juvenile.

TOASTING MASTER (Congrats - Broadway Gold, by Seeking the Gold) he’s a half brother to multiple stakes winner R GYPSY GOLD (Bernardini), Razorback Handicap hero GOLDEN LAD (Medaglia d'Oro) Grade 2 winner and Kentucky Oaks runner-up BROADWAY’S ALIBI (Vindication). Their dam won the Astoria Stakes as a 2YO and she’s a half sister to Florida Derby hero and new sire DIALED IN. Second dam Miss Doolittle placed in the Schuylerville Stakes (G-2) as a two year old and the second dam ELIZA earned Champion 2YO Filly honors.

RACE 7 | MSW | 6 ½ F | 2YO colt/geldings

FRACULA (Rockport Harbor - Light and Liberty, by Arch) both half siblings are winners. His dam is a half to SW sprinters RISEN WARRIOR and AWESOME LADY, who is the dam of MSW turf sprinter SENSIBLE LADY.

MARKET GUESSING (Blame - Run Sarah Run, by Smart Strike) is a half to multiple stakes veteran FIRST DUDE (Stephen Got Even) and SW VIA VENETO (Orientate). Second dam BREECH is a SW.

NO SMALL REWARDS (Warrior's Reward - No Small Wonder, by Capote) is a half to Cinderella Stakes winner WONDERFUL LUCK (Trust n Luck). That’s it for blacktype in the immediate distaff line.

HIDDEN DANGER (Tiznow - North Cork, by Doneraile Court) his dam is a half sister to Louisiana Derby (G-1) hero HIGH LIMIT. Recent BC Juvenile Turf winner HOOTENNANNY, plus G1 winners DANCE TEACHER and CAT MOVES are part of this family.

FLASHY JEWEL (Flashy Bull - Indian Jewel, by Distorted Humor) is a half to SP Juvie KENTUCKY GEM (Friends Lake). Their dam is a full sister to Busanda Stakes winner AGE OF HUMOR, plus a half to MSP Coach Ryan and juvie SP Meeker Avenue.

DECORATION (Congrats - Preemptive Attack, by Smart Strike) is a half to MGSP Sky Treasure (Sky Mesa) and juvie SP Panther Strike (Black Minnaloushe). Second dam is Canadian Champion Older Mare and Champion Turf Mare BOLD RURITANA.

AMERICAN ROAD (Quality Road - I Love America, by Quiet American) is a half to 2YO SW AMERICAN SUGAR (Harlan's Holiday) and SP Love to Run (Pulpit). Their dam is a half to the dam of MG1 winning sprinter SASSY IMAGE, who was also a SW 2YO. I Love America is a half to the dams of 2YO SW LA WILDCAT and her turf SW half brother EXTENSIVE. The second dam is stakes placed and the third dam HEADER CARD won the Oak Leaf (G-1) as a two year old. Do you see a trend here?

KID ZIP (Unbridled's Song - Baby Zip, by Relaunch) the pretty gray colt is a half brother to multiple graded stakes winners and top sires CITY ZIP (Carson City) and GHOSTZAPPER (Awesome Again) plus multiple G3 winner CITY WOLF (Giant’s Causeway). Their dam is a blue hen.

TWISTED FANTASY (Touch Gold - Miss Attractive, by Running Stag) is a half to MGSW AWESOME BABY (Awesome Again) heroine of the Santa Ynez, Santa Ysabel and Sunland Park Oaks. Their dam is a half to SW AMIABLE GRACE and MISS TIZZY.

VICI (War Front - Viva, by Pulpit) hails from a family of Claiborne Farm bluebloods. He’s a half to G-3 SP Luster (Touch Gold). His dam is a half sister to stakes winning sires EASTERN ECHO and ROAR, plus Multiple graded stakes winner YELL. Second dam stakes winner WILD APPLAUSE is the grand-dam of GSW CONGRATS and SP Flatter, both are sires. The fourth dam is dam is blue hen GLOWING TRIBUTE, dam of Kentucky Derby winner SEA HERO, plus she is grand-dam of Champion European sprinter MOZART and many other notable stakes winners.

HAWKSHAW (Discreetly Mine - Count to Six, by Saratoga Six) is a half to the multiple stakes winning veterans MERIBEL (Peaks and Valleys) and KNOX (Menifee). Six of nine half siblings that raced are winners. Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint heroine INFORMED DECISION is part of this distaff family.

RACE 8 | MSW | 1 MILE (TURF) | 2yo Fillies

LIVE FOREVER (Pioneerof the Nile - Smokin Again, by Smoke Glacken) her dam is a SW 2YO on dirt and went 0-2 over the lawn. PON is an excellent (33%) turf sire. We have to skip back to the third dam to find blacktype. Third dam DIANES HALO is a G-2 winner and was second in the Santa Anita Oaks (G-1). This is the female family of multiple graded stakes winner and sire DOMESTIC DISPUTE.

SWEETER THAN EVER (Exchange Rate - Sweet Eloise, by Sky Classic) pretty gray filly is a half to SW SWEET RELISH (Smoke Glacken) and DON DULCE (Maria’s Mon). Both earned their SW over dirt. She’s also a half to G-3 turf placed Wherethewestbegins (Gone West). Their dam is stakes placed and a half to several stakes placed runners. Second dam MS ELOISE won the Shuvee (G-1), Top Flight (G-1) Bed O’Roses (G-3) etc. This is the female family of MG1 winner OCTAVE.

STRIKE BACK FAST (English Channel - Elegant Prospect, by Mr. Prospector) is a full sister to Changethechannel who placed in the Santa Barbara Handicap (G-3). Third dam GORGEOUS won the Ashland (G-1), Hollywood Oaks, Vanity Invitational (G-1) etc. Fourth dam KAMAR was Champion 3YO Filly in Canada. Her descendants bore Santa Anita Oaks (G-1) winner TURBULENT DECENT, Ruffian Stakes (G-1) heroine SWIFT TEMPER, and many other stakes winners.

BELPIANA (Rock Hard Ten - Sweet Rider, by Seeking the Gold) her sire is a strong turf sire. Her dam is a half to SANTA CATERINA, who won the Hollywood Oaks (G-2) and placed in the KY Oaks, Frizette, Del Mar Debutante and BC Juvenile Fillies. She’s also a half to Sanford Stakes runner up Power World. English Champion 2yo filly CULTURE VULTURE is part of this distaff family.

DYNAMY ROAD (Bellamy Road - Dynacielo, by Dynaformer) is related to American Road, who is entered in Race 6. Their dams are half sisters.

PANTANAL (Congrats - Selva, by Forest Wildcat) her dam won the Monmouth Sorority and Glorious Song Stakes at Woodbine as a 2YO, plus the Mardi Gras Stakes sprinting on the lawn at Fairgrounds. She owns the only blacktype in two generations.

BETTER BE BETTER (Smart Strike - Lake Huron, by Salt Lake) is a full sister to Dogwood Stakes (G-3) heroine SALTY STRIKE and half stakes winner SALTY RESPONSE, plus SP Northern Vacation.

HEART LOVE KISS (Zensational - Indigene, by Deputy Minister) is a half to MSP sprinter Pretty Katherine (Vindication). Her dam is a is a full sister to MGSW ATELIER (who bore GSP Alaazo). She’s also a half to the graded stakes veteran ALDIZA who won the Go For Wand Handicap (G-1) and placed in the Test, Frizette, Spinster, etc.

Delta Downs Jackpot – Who Wants to be a Millionaire?

The top four finishers in the Delta Downs Jackpot will earn points towards the Kentucky Derby. But so far, the race is just a blip on the Derby trail. Only one horse that has finished in the top three in the Jackpot has made an impact on the Triple Crown races, 2005 Kentucky Derby runner-up Closing Argument.

In the eleven years that the Delta Downs Jackpot (G-3) has been contested, only two winners, Big Drama and Goldencents, have continued on to win Grade 1 stakes. It seems the only thing going for the race is the million dollar purse and a chance for the horses’ connections to indulge in some Cajun cuisine.

This year, a full field of ten, with two also-eligibles are scheduled to run 1 1/6 miles. There’s a 90% chance of a wet track, so let’s scout for the mud pedigrees.

Colts exiting the Breeders' Cup haven't fared well in the Delta Jackpot. Only Z Humor, fifth in the BC Juvenile, has won the Jackpot. This year, MR. Z enters the Jackpot after a fifth place finish in the Juvenile. The well-traveled colt has started at five different tracks in six races since June and has finished worse than second only twice. An exhausting schedule that many horses couldn’t handle, but Mr. Z seems to thrive on it. Have to consider him as a contender as he’s facing a much softer field here, plus, he has one of the best mud pedigrees in the field.

Another colt that figures to see a lot of action on the tote is GOLDEN ACTOR. The son of Curlin made an eye-catching move in his debut in a Gulfstream maiden race, breaking from the far outside and circling the field only to miss by ¾ length over the speed favoring track going seven furlongs. Golden Actor captured the Jean Lafitte Stakes, the Jackpot prep by over 4 lengths. Golden Actor is a half brother to multiple stakes winner BIG APPLE DADDY and stakes placed River Dancer, so there’s some quality here. Golden Actor’s speed figures have improved in every start and he’s firing off bullet works at Delta Downs. On the downside, his resume is light, he’s taking a major step up in class and his mud pedigree is average.

CONQUEST TSUNAMI has been defeated only once in his six race career. After going virtually unchallenged over the Woodbine Poly and turf, the son of Stormy Atlantic faded to sixth after pressing the pace in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. It was the colt’s first race over dirt and around two turns. The Mark Casse trainee won the Street Sense Stakes at a mile over the Churchill dirt in his last start and could be one of the colts vying for the lead in this year’s Jackpot. He has an above average mud pedigree.

The word must’ve gone out that Delta Downs favors speed. A contingent of California shippers will bring their brand of crazy to bear in the Jackpot. Leading the herd is WAKE UP NICK. Undefeated in his first five starts, which include a slew of state-bred stakes, the son of Cindigo suffered his first defeat in the Golden State Juvenile in his last start, finishing second by 1 ¼ lengths after a wide trip chasing blistering fractions. His sire Cindago gets a superior 26% winners over off tracks.

Speaking of speed, OCHO OCHO OCHO couldn’t have been more impressive running away in the rained off Juvenile Turf Sprint. The son of Street Sense dueled through insane fractions of :21.46, and :43.96 before widening to a 5 ¾ length lead, flashing under the wire in 1:14.57 for 6 ½ furlongs. On paper, he’s easily the fastest one in the field, but will have to stretch that speed an extra two furlongs. He does have an above average mud pedigree.

PRIME ENGINE breaks from the #1 position, and he will likely be right up on the lead with Ocho Ocho Ocho. The son of Northern Afleet has won both stars by a combined 15 ½ lengths at Emerald Downs. After those huge victories, Prime Engine switched to the barn of Jerry Hollendorfer and has been flashing sensational works. Prime Engine has to prove himself against tougher, more experienced horses and his pedigree is average for mud, but Hollendorfer doesn’t ship for the fun of it.

Looking for a live longshot? How about SARATOGA HEATER? Conditioned by Al Stall Jr., the son of Temple City has improved his speed figures in every start, including a 4 length victory against NY state-breds in the Bertram F. Bongard. The colt has made all three starts over a sloppy track and there’s 90% rain/snow in the forecast for Saturday. Plus, this colt has shown the ability to race on or off of the lead. At morning line odds of 15-1, he’s a tempting play.

FAR RIGHT, RED BUTTON and DEKABRIST appear up against it.

Far Right has been wide in his last two starts and will be in the same position in the Jackpot. He was gaining ground in the Street Sense after going wide, but I expect much of the same here. Perhaps he can round out a Super.

Red Button has raced over dirt, poly and turf. His speed figures have improved in each start and he likes to run from off of the pace. The drawback is his trainer’s 0-24 record in stakes and this colt has been beaten by weaker opponents. If the Jackpot pace is strong, perhaps Red Button can hit the board, but I don’t see him winning here.

Dekabrist gets his fourth jockey in six starts. That’s not going to help. Take this guy back to Calder…uh, Gulfstream West, and let him play with the allowance types.

The two also-eligibles don’t appear to have a chance either. UNBLUNTED is a last out maiden winner at Saratoga. TWO SIX WINS comes from the Pender barn, which is 0-23 with shippers.

 

SELECTIONS

TRACK BIAS: 33% of winners go wire-to-wire on the rail. In the last five editions of the Jackpot, three colts won on the lead, one each won from mid-pack and from the back of the pack.

PRIME ENGINE has speed on the rail, but he may not be as fast as OCHO OCHO OCHO. If Ocho gets an uncontested lead, it could be game over, but I’ll bet that he’ll be pushed along by the other speed.

#5 SARATOGA HEATER

#4 CONQUEST TSUNAMI

#8 WAKE UP NICK

#3 MR. Z

DIRTY DOZEN IN CLAIBORNE BREEDERS’ FUTURITY

The 1 1/16 mile Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, this year sponsored by Claiborne, will send a dozen colts to the post, led by the undefeated stakes winner CONQUEST TSUNAMI. Not only will the son of Stormy Atlantic be checked for class, but also surface and distance limitations. The Mark Casse trainee has recorded wins over Woodbine’s polytrack and turf. He’s outclassed the Canadians by more than a combined 20 lengths, blowing to the front of every race and thundering past the finish line first. Conquest Tsunami showed a chick in his armor in his latest start, an allowance turf contest at seven furlongs. He held onto the victory by a short head. So, what about the big questions of dirt and distance? Conquest Tsunami’s full brother, the stakes placed Stormy Pacific, won from six furlongs on dirt to a mile on the Polytrack. Their stakes winning dam was proficient at 1 1/16 miles over the turf. Her dam, NICKEL CLASSIC, won the Delaware Oaks at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. Conquest Tsunami should handle 1 1/6 miles and might go to 1 1/8 miles. The accomplished youngster could be one of those rare horses who can win over any surface.

 

HASHTAG BOURBON was a troubled horse in the Iroquois Stakes. He tracked the pace on the inside, but found himself with nowhere to run through the stretch. The Kellyn Gorder trainee managed to find running room, but it was too late. He finished third, beaten only 1 ½ lengths. The son of top Freshmen Sire Super Saver is that stallion’s third most accomplished offspring, right behind Competitive Edge and I Spent It, who finished one-two in the G-1 Hopeful. Hashtag Bourbon is a half to 2002 Arkansans Derby runner-up Wild Horses and stake placed Waltzing With Blue. Their dam Waltzing With Deb is a half to the dam of multiple graded sprinter and sire SUCCESSFUL APPEAL and his half brother G-2 winner TRUE TO TRADITION. Hashtag Boubon gets a jock switch to Leparoux, who won the Alcibiades with Peace and War.

 

After beating maidens, BOLD CONQUEST stepped up against winners in the Iroquois Stakes. The Asmussen trainee made an eye-catching five-wide move around the turn and even had the lead briefly before his more experienced stable mate Lucky Player stuck his neck in front at the wire. This was a good learning experience for Bold Conquest. He should benefit from racing and really shine when the distances get longer. Bold Conquest’s sire Curlin has already sired a Classic winner when his son Palace Malice won the Belmont Stakes. Bold Conquest’s dam One for Jim is a multiple stakes miler. His second dam by Belmont hero A. P. Indy is an unraced half sister to Cigar Mile hero JERSEY TOWN. Bold Conquest’s third dam JERSEY GIRL won the Test, Acorn and Mother Goose Stakes, all Grade 1 events. Bold Conquest has a classic pedigree and should improve with maturity and distance.

 

MR. Z is back at it again. This colt has raced in more graded stakes than any of his classmates, and has yet to record a victory. His closest defeat was by a neck in the Saratoga Special. The tenacious, gritty son of Malibu Moon had troubled trips in the Sanford and Saratoga Special, yet still finished second in both races. Instead of resting up for the Champagne Stakes, Mr. Z was sent to Churchill to contest the Iroquois Stakes. In his previous stakes attempts, the Lukas trainee sat off of the pace before making his run, but switched to lead the pace in the Iroquois. That didn’t end well, as the colt tired to fifth place. Mr. Z is a half brother to the UAE stakes placed Ibn Al Nafis. Their dam Stormy Bear is a half to Champion Turf Horse CHIEF BEARHEART, Hollywood Derby (G-1) winner EXPLOSIVE RED, stakes winner RUBY RANSOM and the stakes placed runners Memorized and Sundown Serenade. Mr. Z has a 4 x 4 Rasmussen Factor inbreeding to the blue hen Gold Digger, who is Mr. Z’s fourth dam. Gold Digger is also the dam of Mr. Prospector, Malibu Moon’s damsire. Mr. Z finally gets a jock switch to Jon Court.

 

Mr. Z’s stablemate SHARM finished a non-threatening third in the Hopeful Stakes behind Competitive Edge and I Spent It. He’s still a maiden. His trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, has conditioned the winners of six Breeders’ Futurities, the last in 2004.

 

The rest of the Breeders’ Futurity is comprised mostly of last out maiden winners. Of those, KEEN ICE is the only one who has traveled past sprint distances. The son of Curlin out of an Awesome Again mare, Keen Ice is bred to relish classic distances. His dam is a half to COAL PLAY, runner up in the Haskell. His second and third dams are graded stakes winners and this is the family of Grade 1 winners SOMALI LEMONADE and VERRAZANO.

 

TOUGH CUSTOMER lived up to his name in his debut, handing Churchill maidens a 5 ½ length defeat. This is another colt who will wake up with racing and longer distances. He’s a son of Giant’s Causeway out of a stakes placed Arch mare. Tough Customer’s dam is a half sister to multiple stakes winner and sire POMEROY and a full sister bore multiple G-1 winner CONTESTED. The Wayne Catalano trainee posted a pre-race bullet breeze at Monmouth.

 

FIRESPIKE is a winner at the Futurity distance of 1 1/16 miles – over the turf. So how should he handle the dirt? Neither of his two half siblings won, but one placed on dirt. Sire Flower Alley is a graded stakes winner over dirt and Firespike’s dam won on the dirt. She’s a half to Queen’s Plate hero BASQUEIAN who won over both surfaces, so FIRESPIKE could be a multi-surface winner like his distaff family. The Michael Maker trainee posted a pre-race bullet and the colt gets a jock switch to Mike Smith.

 

It isn’t a stakes race without a Pletcher horse. CARPE DIEM dueled through swift factions to capture a 5 ½ furlong maiden at Saratoga in 1:03 4/5. The son of Giant’s Causeway is a half to J. B.’s Thunder, who won the Breeders’ Futurity in 2010. Pletcher trained last year’s Breeders’ Futurity hero WE MISS ARTIE. The trainer is 26% with horses stretching to a route.

 

IKE WALKER switches to dirt after three starts on the Poly. He was three and four wide in the Arlingon-Washington Futurity and was never a factor. The son of Bellamy Road out of a Hold That Tiger mare can likely handle the distance and dirt, but class is an issue. The Michael Stidham trainee posted an average pre-race work at Keeneland.  W V JETSETTER bobbled at the break and then was four wide in the Saratoga Special, which was his last start. The Texas-bred colt has been breezing well for conditioner George Weaver.  DEKABRIST has raced five times and his only victories came sprinting at Gulfstream this summer.

SELECTIONS

The new Keeneland dirt surface should be dry.

CONQUEST TSUNAMI is the one to catch. A few others in here, mainly TOUGH CUSTOMER and CARPE DIEM could run with him, setting it up for one of the other pace pressers or closers. Of those, HASHTAG BOURBON and BOLD CONQUEST have the best chance, although KEEN ICE could also come running from the clouds.

#7 CONQUEST TSUNAMI

#10 HASHTAG BOURBON

#6  BOLD CONQUEST

#11 KEEN ICE – longshot pick

 

CHECK OUT THE CHAMPAGNE STAKES WRITE-UP AND SELECTIONS HERE: http://www.thorofan.com/backend/News2/psNews.php?database=2&action=viewone&id=46&rnd=314.97252616100013

FRONTRUNNER STAKES - AMERICAN PHAROAH VS. THE REST

The Front Runner Stakes (formerly the Norfolk) offers a guaranteed spot in the starting gate of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile for the victor. The race is also a Kentucky Derby qualifying race, meaning the winner receives ten points towards entry into the Derby.

The 1 1/16 mile Grade 1 event is comprised of four colts who exited the Del Mar Futurity, the first and second place finishers in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf and four last out maiden winners. Let’s review the field.

TEXAS RED (Afleet Alex - Ramatuelle (CHI), by Jeune Homme) jumps up in company after winning his maiden last time out at a mile over the Del Mar poly. His speed figures have improved in every start. He’s out of a stakes placed mare who is a half to two Chilean group winners.

LORD NELSON (Pulpit - African Jade, by Seeking the Gold) cost $340K as a yearling and ran like it in his debut in July beating Del Mar Futurity runner-up Calculator by a length. Baffert kept the colt out of the Futurity and has sent the son of Pulpit out for a few months of consistent breezes. Lord Nelson’s second dam is Argentinean Champion MISS LINDA. Santa Margarita Invitational winner MISS MATCH is part of this female family. Despite his strong morning works, Lord Nelson is jumping from five furlongs to two turns and doesn’t have the benefit of a recent race.

SKY PREACHER (Sky Mesa - My Dear Lady (ARG), by Mutakddim) recorded a maiden win when switched to the lawn and was ½ a length shy of the win in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf in his last start. Both races were at a mile. Was it the distance or surface that boosted his performance? Sky Preacher is a full to the stakes winner SKY HIGH LADY, whose victories came over the turf and Polytrack. Their dam is an Argentinean Group winner over the turf at classic distances.

DADDY D T (Scat Daddy - Issues, by Awesome Again) beat Sky Preacher by ½ length in an exciting blanket finish in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf. The Sadler colt has worked well over the Santa Anita dirt, but most of Scat Daddy’s babies prefer turf and polytrack to dirt. That being said, Daddy D T is a full brother to Willard L. Proctor winner AMARISH, a winner over dirt and poly, but not turf.

RED BUTTON (Distorted Humor - Skipping Around, by Skip Trial) won his second start, which was a maiden race at Del Mar. He showed absolutely nothing in the Del Mar Futurity, finishing a zip code behind American Pharoah. Red Button is a half brother to the Grade 1 winner SUGAR SHAKE (Awesome Again) and stakes placed Explosive Heat (Touch Gold). Despite the colt’s swift works at Santa Anita, the Glatt barn is 0-23 in stakes races.

REFLECTED STAR (Eskendereya - Retool, by Gone West) was no match for Lord Nelson in their debut and faded after flashing some early speed. The son of freshman sire Eskendereya came back a month later to beat maiden claimers at Del Mar. Reflected Star should show improvement with distance and a switch to dirt but Eskendereya’s offspring will be later developing types. Reflected Star’s dam is a half to the graded stakes winners LE BERNARDIN and TAITTINGER ROSE. His third dam is BC Juvie fillies heroine TWILIGHT RIDGE.

AMERICAN PHAROAH (Pioneerof the Nile - Littleprincessemma, by Yankee Gentleman) led every step of the way to score a decisive 4 ¾ victory in the Del Mar Futurity. He’s recorded two sharp breezes over the new Santa Anita dirt for Baffert. His dam is a half to the graded stakes winners MISTY ROSETTE and STORM WOLF. His second dam EXCLUSIVE ROSETTE is a stakes winner.

CONQUEST PANTHERA (Kitten's Joy - Lastofthsummerwine, by Sky Mesa) was a $475K yearling and showed it winning his debut by 1 ½ lengths over the Del Mar poly. By turf star Kitten's Joy, Conquest Panthera has a pedigree better suited to the lawn and polytrack. His second damsire Boundary won on the dirt, but was a better sire of turf horses. This colt must be gorgeous, because there is little blacktype in his female family to warrant his huge price tag. His dam is a half sister stakes winner SONG WARRIOR and to a Russian stakes winner. Conquest Panthera’s third dam is Test heroine CLEF DARGENT.

SKYWAY (Sky Mesa - Bedside Manner, by Dr. Blum) won the Best Pal Stakes but weakened after going wide the entire way in the Del Mar Futurity. He did his best to check in fourth, beaten 13 lengths. Skyway is a half to multiple stakes winner AVA K. (Dixie Union). Skyway has a sprinter’s pedigree and may find the 1 1/6 miles at the top of his distance range. He has a good/bad race cycle and worked a last out bullet at Santa Anita

CALCULATOR (In Summation - Back to Basics, by Alphabet Soup) has been slow to put it all together. He was a surprise second in the Del Mar Futurity at long odds and it was another 8 + lengths back to the third place finisher. Calculator’s unraced dam is a half to the stakes veteran turf sprinter ATTICUS KRISTY, his full sister stakes winner FIERY DANCER and to Lexington Stakes hero DISTORTED REALITY. This is the distaff family of Preakness champ SHACKLEFORD and his Grade 1 winning sister LADY JOANNE. Calculator should appreciate two turns and a switch to dirt. He worked a bullet before his last race and also in preparation for the Frontrunner.

SELECTIONS

It’s anyone’s guess how the new track surface will play at Santa Anita. In one day of racing, speed appears to be holding, as the first races were won either on the lead or horses sitting a few lengths from the front.

American Pharoah and possibly Sky Preacher and Skyway appear to have the most speed. American Pharoah posted a triple digit speed figure in his last performance, a 19 point jump. He could simply run away from them here, but he could also regress slightly. I dismissed Calculator in the Del Mar Futurity, but this is a colt showing all signs of improvement. Sky Preacher has hit the board in three of four starts. Not sure if he’ll handle the dirt at this level of competition, but he’s worth a look. Texas Red is also showing improvement and should benefit from a surface change. If Kenty D. can hustle him out of the gate from that one post, he could hit the board. An intriguing longshot is Red Button. He bombed in the Futurity, but his speed figures aren’t that bad and he has two really good works at Santa Anita. I don’t see him winning it, but he could spoil the party at huge odds.

#7 AMERICAN PHAROAH

#10 CALCULATOR

#3 SKY PREACHER

#5 RED BUTTON – longshot pick.