CA Derby and Oaks Champs Vie in El Camino Real Derby

In the last eleven years, the El Camino Real Derby (G-3) has lost some stature. Only one horse, 2003 third place runner Ten Most Wanted has finished in the money in a Triple Crown race. In the 1980’s and 1990’s, the El Camino Real Derby produced two Kentucky Derby winners, Gato Del Sol and Charismatic, who finished second in their respective El Camino Real Derbies. Snow Chief and Tabasco Cat won the Northern California race and each became winners of Triple Crown races. Special mention to El Camino Real hero Cavonnier, who placed in the 1996 Kentucky Derby.

This year, nine colts and a filly vie to become the next El Camino Real Derby champ. The 1 1/8 mile event will separate the sprinter/milers from horses that can run a route of ground and have the pedigrees to be true Triple Crown competitors.

Perennial leading Golden Gate conditioner Jerry Hollendorfer has entered the California Derby and Oaks winners, Russian Greek and Lady of Fifty. RUSSIAN GREEK (Giant's Causeway - Sand Dollar, by Grindstone) has the pedigree to run all day. His sire is already classified as a Classic Chef de race, which indicates that he imparts stamina to his offspring. Russian Greek’s damsire is Kentucky Derby hero Grindstone, and adding even more stamina to the mix is Russian Greek’s second damsire, the heroic Triple Crown runner-up Alydar. Russian Greek has a classy female family. His half-sister Ocean Current is stakes placed and their dam is a half-sister to Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Cat Thief. Russian Greek’s second dam is a Grade 3 winner and third dam Track Robbery was 1982 Champion Older Mare. Russian Greek enters the El Camino Real with victories in the Gold Rush and California Derby under his girth.

The other Hollendorfer entrant is the filly LADY OF FIFTY (After Market - K. D.'s Shady Lady, by Maria's Mon). The pretty gray miss also has a stamina-oriented pedigree. Her sire was a top turf router and her damsire produced two Kentucky Derby champs. Lady of Fifty is a half-sister to the stakes wining turf miler Forestry Steel. Their dam placed in the Grade 3 Tempted Stakes and two listed events, while their second dam Annie’s Apple was also stakes placed. Lady of Fifty has been beating up on the filly division at Golden Gate. She’s won her last three starts, all stakes races, including the California Oaks.

Cahill Chrome, Senor Rain and Unveiled Heat, the second, third and fifth place finishers in the California Derby come back for another shot at Russian Greek.

CAHILL CHROME (Cahill Road - Takes Two to Mango, by Bold Badgett) was defeated 2 ¾ lengths combined in the Gold Rush and California Derby by Russian Greek. Cahill Chrome’s sire is a full brother to Kentucky Derby winner and top sire Unbridled, while damsire Bold Badgett is an unraced full brother to Kentucky Derby/Preakness runner-up Desert Wine. Cahill Chrome’s pedigree is borderline for getting 1 1/8 miles. Although his damsire has a stamina oriented pedigree, his offspring and that of his daughters rarely win past 1 1/16 miles. Cahill Chrome is a half-brother to the stakes placed sprinter Two To Get Ready and their dam is a stakes winning sprinter.

In his first try over Tapeta, SENOR RAIN (El Nino - Make My Marq, by Marquetry) hung in the stretch of the California Derby, winding up third, 2 1/3 lengths behind Russian Greek. Senor Rain has an obscure pedigree. He is the only black type runner produced by his sire. El Nino’s best finish was a third place in the Amsterdam Stakes (G-2). Senor Rain’s unraced dam is a half-sister to a stakes placed runner, but this distaff family is mostly compiled of hardy bread-and-butter types.

The late developing UNVEILED HEAT (Unusual Heat - Lift the Veil, by Cure the Blues) needed eight tries to win his maiden. A month later, he finished fifth in the California Derby while racing three wide. He was beaten only 3 ½ lengths by Russian Greek in a good effort. The son of top California sire Unusual Heat has the pedigree to enjoy going long. Although his damsire never won past 1 1/6 miles, his daughters have produced stakes winners up to 1 ¼ miles. Unveiled Heat’s distaff line is modest, but tough. His dam and second dam are unraced, but all of Unveiled Heat’s six half siblings are winners, and two are listed winners.

Two sons of second crop sire Scat Daddy will try the Tapeta for the first time. HANDSOME MIKE (Scat Daddy - Classic Strike, by Smart Strike) faltered in the final stages of the CashCall Futurity after setting the pace. He came back in the Sham Stakes (G-3) but had no response over dirt, and was soundly beaten by 5 ¾ lengths. Handsome Mike’s sire Scat Daddy is making a name for himself as a sire of turf/synthetic runners, but so far, his progeny appear to have distance limitations. Handsome Mike does receive stamina through his distaff sire Smart Strike and his dam’s sole win was at 1 1/8 miles over the turf. Handsome Mike will wear blinkers for the first time and the O’Neil barn gets 15% winners with that angle.

The other son of Scat Daddy, DADDY NOSE BEST (Scat Daddy - Follow Your Bliss, by Thunder Gulch) has competed steadily over the turf since last July. He’s flashed some sporadic talent, beaten only 3 ¼ lengths in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf after a four-wide run, but he has a history of finding trouble and being rank. Scat Daddy’s female family offers some stamina through damsire Kentucky Derby hero Thunder Gulch and second damsire, Preakness winner Pine Bluff. Daddy Nose Best ‘s distaff line is fairly modest. His dam was winless in seven attempts, but his second dam was a turf stakes winner at 1 1/16 miles.

LUCKY CHAPPY (High Chaparral - Germane, by Distant Relative) races for the connections of Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom. Lucky Chappy has shown plenty of talent, but has yet to break through with a win in the US. The pretty gray colt has one of the classiest pedigrees in the field. The five tail sires and the first through third damsires in Lucky Chappy’s pedigree are all Champions. Lucky Chappy is a half-brother to two stakes placed runners. Their Group 3 winning dam is a half-sister to two stakes winners. Additionally, Lucky Chappy has inbreeding to the blue hen Lalun through her sons Bold Reason and Never Bend. As one would expect, Lucky Chappy’s sire gets mainly turf runners, but he does have a few winners over Polytrack.

After blitzing maidens at Golden Gate, ROCKINARZ RECRUIT (Our New Recruit - With a Flash, by Deputy Commander) was a distant third against state-bred optional claimers while sprinting over the dirt at Santa Anita. Rockinarz Recruit is only the third winner sired by Dubai Golden Shaheen Champ Our New Recruit. Rockinarz Recruit ‘s damsire is a Travers Stakes hero. However, as a broodmare sire, Deputy Commander has no stakes winners at 1 1/8 miles or farther. Rockinarz Recruit does have a touch of stamina through his female family, as his second dam With A Twist won the 1 1/8 mile Rare Treat Handicap (G-3).

Recent maiden winner ALL SQUARED AWAY (Bellamy Road - Squared, by Posse) had his break-through win last time out at Golden Gate after competing unsuccessfully against maiden claimers at the Southern California tracks. All Squared Away has a sprint-orientated pedigree. His sire’s offspring are mainly sprinter/milers, however, he does have two winners at 1 1/8 miles. All Squared Away ‘s distaff family has a sprinkling of stakes winners. His unraced dam is a half-sister to stakes winner Plumlake Lady and his second dam is stakes placed.

 

SELECTIONS:

Track Bias: Overall, the Tapeta track plays fair, although posts four and higher appear to have the slight advantage.

The last three editions of the El Camino Real Derby were won by So Cal invaders.

RUSSIAN GREEK appears to be the one to beat. He’s bested three of the eight entrants and there doesn’t appear to be much in here to beat him. Still, as we’ve often seen, anything can happen in a horse race, so let’s take a look at some other possibilities.

There appears to be some early speed in the race

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to run with LADY OF FIFTY, although she’s proven that she doesn’t need the lead to win. HANDSOME MIKE has been competing against the top So Cal colts. He was beaten only three lengths by Liaison in the CashCall, but went wide in the Sham. He may be just a synthetic/turf runner and this is probably farther than he wants to go, but Handsome Mike’s BRIS speed figures are improving and he’s making his third start off a layoff. The gritty SENOR RAIN has been out-running his pedigree. He’s been ambitiously placed against some nice horses and has finished out of the money only once in his eight race career. ROCKINARZ RECRUIT is the speed of the race. He freaked against maidens, getting six furlongs in 1:09 3/5. He’ll be winging it on the lead and they’ll have to catch him. DADDY NOSE BEST has a high profile trainer/jock combo, but distance is a serious question mark. LUCKY CHAPPY has the pedigree and some class, but is experimenting with Tapeta. He’s at pretty low odds for an experiment.

#4 RUSSIAN GREEK

#7 HANDSOME MIKE

#2 SENOR RAIN

#8 ROCKINARZ RECRUIT - longshot

Pedigree Plays a Part in the El Camino Real Derby

Brethren isn't everyone's favorite in the Sam F. Davis Stakes! Read more here: http://bit.ly/gUMXSs.

Thoroughbred breeding in the US leans more and more towards speed every year. The majority of the races are held between five furlongs and 1 1/16 miles. An extra furlong doesn’t seem like much, but it can be the difference between winning and losing a race. Natural talent and the heart of the particular thoroughbred can take him far, but pedigree can help determine the horse that will have that little extra it takes to win.
The overwhelming favorite in the El Camino Real Derby is COMMA TO THE TOP (Bwana Charlie – Maggies Storm, by Stormy Atlantic), who boasts a five win race streak, which started at Golden Gate. Comma To The Top has a sprinter/miler pedigree. His high cruising speed and ability to put away his foes mid-race could carry him to 1/18 miles but he’ll be running on fumes at the end. Comma To The Top is Bwana Charlie’s best runner. His dam, Maggies Storm, placed once in four tries. She is a half-sister to the stakes winner miler Yes He’s a Pistol and stakes placed Dumaai of Course. Comma To The Top isn’t facing the toughest group, but he will face a distance test. Read his pedigree profile on the Derby Profiles Page.
Comma to the Top’s main challenger could be POSITIVE RESPONSE (Pomeroy – Lisa’s Approval, by Farma Way), who has been improving in  every race. Positive Response has a speed over stamina pedigree. His sire gets sprinter/miler types and hasn’t produced a stakes winner at 1 1/8 miles. His damsire won at 1 ¼ miles and Positive Response’s dam won at two turns over the lawn. Positive Response is the first stakes winner in two generations of his distaff family. He’s already bested Jakesam and Bluegrass Reward and brings a bullet work to the starting gate, but like Comma To The Top, the distance is a question mark.
The aforementioned JAKESAM (Smoke Glacken – Deputy Sarah, by Deputy Commander) has seen the tail ends of Comma To The Top and Positive Response in front of him. He’s won at the maiden and allowance levels, but appears to be a notch below the best. Jakesam has a speed over stamina pedigree. His sire gets mostly sprint types, but does have three winners at 1 1/8 miles, including Persistently, who has similar breeding to Jakesam. His damsire Deputy Commander and second damsire Holy Bull both won the Travers Stakes. Jakesam dam is a half-sister to Grade 2 stakes winner Higher World. The pretty gray colt might put pressure on the top two early.
SILVER MEDALLION (Badge of Silver – Another Vegetarian, by Stalwart) won the Eddie Logan stakes on the grass last time out. Silver Medallion is a half-brother to Sweet Talker, winner of the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G-1) over the lawn. His sire Badge of Silver is represented by his first crop this year and has three winners over the turf. His dam Another Vegetarian is a half-sister to a stakes winner. Silver Medallion has been rank, pulled, bumped and steadied in most of his races, making me wonder what he can do with a clean trip.
BLUEGRASS REWARD (Good Reward – Bluegrass Belle, by Unbridled’s Song) was a gaining third behind Positive Response and Jakesam in the California Derby. He has the pedigree to be a factor at longer distances. Bluegrass Reward so far is the top runner for his second crop sire, who won up to 1 ¼ miles over the turf. His dam is a half-sister to a stakes placed runner. Thorn Song, a Grade 1 turf miler was produced by this female family. Bluegrass Rewards breezes have been slow stamina oriented affairs.
After breaking into the winning ranks in his fifth attempt three weeks ago, FORMULA GOLD (Formal Gold – Pundit, by Beau Genius) jumps into tough competition. He has a distance oriented pedigree. His sire fought with Skip Away and Will’s Way through many prestigious handicaps during his racing career. Formula Gold’s damsire won up to 1 1/8 miles, and as a broodmare sire, has winners at 1 ¼ miles. Formula Gold is a half-brother to the stakes placed miler Bleach Blonde. Formula Gold hasn’t worked since the beginning of December, which is unusual.
Selections:
How the track is playing: Contrary to almost every other track in the US this winter, the front runner isn’t always the winner at Golden Gate. 80% of the races this meet at 1/18 miles have been won by the mid pack or steady one-run closers while the front runners have wired the field 20% of the time. Strangely, pace pressers are at a major disadvantage.
COMMA TO THE TOP has the most speed in this race. Can he get away with an easy lead and coast home on fumes? He’s certainly seems talented enough, but this ain’t Southern California and those one-run Zenyatta types can close at Golden Gate. POSITIVE RESPONSE and JAKESAM could keep COMMA TO THE TOP working on the front end. The only one-run type is BLUEGRASS REWARD. He has the pedigree and could come running at the end. SILVER MEDALION strikes me as a potentially nice turf horse. His works over dirt are average. While his pedigree indicates that he should run over anything, I’ll take a pass. What about FORMULA GOLD? Did the light bulb suddenly go on? He’s never run a bad race and could be a live longshot if things fall apart.
#2 BLUEGRASS REWARD
#1 COMMA TO THE TOP
#5 POSITIVE RESPONSE
#3 FORMULA GOLD – longshot pick