Handicapping the Withers Stakes

Dortmund vs. Firing Line in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes here.

 

The 2015 Withers Stakes (G-3) pits Jerome Stakes hero El Kabeir against a seemingly over matched field of last out maiden winners. Early February is when the less precocious runners begin to mature and improve. Kiaran McLaughlin has been hogging the Wither’s winner’s circle. He’s had his picture taken three times in the last ten years. Todd Pletcher has captured the 1 1/16 mile race twice in that time frame. Both of them have contestants who, if they run as expected, could pull an upset on the pretty gray El Kabeir.

The Big Hoss

EL KABEIR (Scat Daddy - Great Venue, by Unbridled's Song) kicked off his three year old season with a scintillating victory in the 1 mile 70 yard Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct last month, galloping under the wire 4 ½ lengths ahead of his nearest competitor. El Kabeir’s immediate family is loaded with talent. Four of his dam’s five half siblings own blacktype. Read his pedigree profile here.

 

 

Contenders

FAR FROM OVER (Blame - Alchemist, by A.P. Indy) won his debut on December12. He was briefly headed but determinedly came back at the wire. It was more than six lengths back to the third place finisher. The time for the 1 mile 70 yards was 1:43.11, which was the second-fastest time for that distance in the racing week. For comparison, El Kabeir won the Jerome in 1:44.69. Far From Over has the best pedigree in the field and the farther the better for him. He is a half brother to a listed winner and to the multiple G-1 stakes placed And Why Not. His dam placed in 1 1/8 mile Grade 3 stakes. She’s a full sister to Turnback the Alarm Handicap heroine ALTESSE. Far From Over’s second dam is ALDIZA, who won graded events from 6 ½ furlongs to 1 1/8 miles. Far From Over is inbred to the blue hen COURTLY DEE through full sisters Althea, the second dam of Blame’s sire Arch, and Aishah, who is Far From Over’s third dam. The todd Pletcher trainee worked a second to last bullet in preparation for the Withers.

 

MARCH (Blame - Lifeinthefastlane, by Unbridled's Song) earned his maiden victory by a neck in his second start. Like Far From Over, March is a son of Breeders’ Cup Classic hero Blame and March should improve with maturity and distance. He’s a half brother to Bay Shore Stakes (G-3) hero EIGHTYFIVEINAFIFTY. There’s little blacktype in March’s Claiborne-bred immediate female family, however, this is the distaff line of the Grade 1 winning sire SEEKING THE GOLD, Champion Juvenile Filly QUEEN OF THE STAGE, Remsen hero FAST PLAY and REVIEWER, sire of the legendary RUFFIAN. Conditioned by Chad Brown, March prepped with a pre-race bullet breeze.

 

CLASSY CLASS (Discreetly Mine - Collegiate, by Saarland) was tossed into the 1 1/8 mile Remsen last year after a score at 6 ½ furlongs. Not surprising that he weakened in the stretch. Classy Class’s stakes placed dam is a half sister to a stakes winning turf miler and stakes winning sprinter. The colt receives stamina attributes through his damsire, but his sire and distaff line strongly lean towards miler speed. Classy Class may find 1 1/16 miles at the top of his scope. The Kiaran McLaughlin trainee draws the rail which could help.

Long Shot Chance

UNRIVALED (Super Saver - Safely, by Unbridled) began his career last July in sprints, but it wasn’t until late December when he put it all together, easily out distancing a full field of maidens going a mile at PARX. Yes, the time was a yawn inducing 1:43.52, however, Unrivaled galloped to a 15 length win, little more than a paid breeze. So what’s so special about this colt? He’s an April foal whose pedigree suggests that Unrivaled should improve with maturity and could handle classic distances. His dam is a full sister to HONEST MAN, who hit his best stride as a four and five year old, with victories in the Mineshaft Handicap at 1 1/6 miles and the 1 1/8 miles Philip H. Iselin Stakes, both Grade 3 events. Unrivaled’s second dam OATH won the Spinaway (G-1) and she’s a half sister to Champion Juvenile WAR PASS. Unrivaled could be one of those colts who will mature rapidly.

TENCENDUR (Warrior's Reward - Still Secret, by Hennessy) got up to beat state-bred maidens by ¾ length in his last race. He was pinned on the inside for most of the race with nowhere to go and had a tough time getting out for running room. Once he was free, the George Weaver colt lengthened stride nicely. The son of the top ten Freshman Sire is a half brother to the multiple restricted stakes winner MOTHER RUSSIA. In his debut, Tencendur was beaten by over six lengths by March On. Tencendur’s speed figure improved in his second start and he gets a jockey upgrade to Cornelio Velasquez.

Not today

GENERAL BELLAMY (Bellamy Road - Sweet Again, by Awesome Again) had an excuse in the Jerome, as he bobbled at the start of the race. He finished a one-paced third, never gaining ground at any point. The colt’s dam is an unraced daughter of Alabama Stakes (G-1) winner SWEET SYMPHONY. Slow but steady describes this colt. His speed figures are improving, but very slowly, and his works are conservative, but steady. Slow and steady may win some races, but not at 1 1/16 miles at Aqueduct.

SELECTIONS

Track bias: Early speed rules on Aqueduct’s inner track. 20% of the meet’s winners at a mile and beyond have wired the field. Pace pressers have finished first 46% of the time.

El Kabeir is a free-running colt who likes to wing it on or near the lead. That and his far outside post, combined with his miler pedigree could make El Kabeir a vulnerable favorite if one of the other contenders takes it to him early. Could a last out maiden winner beat the Champ? Sure, Todd Pletcher did it with Revolutionary in 2013. His contender Far From Over has the speed and could pull an upset.

#2 FAR FROM OVER

#7 EL KABEIR

#3 MARCH

#5 UNRIVALED – longshot play

Sam F. Davis Stakes – Handicapping the Race

 GET THE SAN VICENTE STAKES HANDICAPPING SELECTIONS AT HORSE RACING NATION

During the past 30 editions of the Sam F. Davis Stakes, several horses who have won or placed in the race have continued on to do well either on the Triple Crown trail or in the top mid-summer races. Blue Grass Cat later finished second in both the 2006 Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. A year later, Any Given Saturday won the Haskell Invitational (G-1), and the following year, Musket Man was third in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. In 2031, this prep race for the Tampa Bay Derby was removed as a Kentucky Derby Points Qualifier and we’ve seen a loss in quality in the last two fields.

That hasn’t stopped twelve hopefuls from entering this year’s 1 1/16 mile Grade Three event. The field consists of the usual last out maiden winners, optional claimers looking for blacktype and some listed stakes runners. Nine of the twelve colts won or placed in their last start.

The Favorites

AMI'S FLATTER (Flatter - Galloping Ami, by Victory Gallop) made up ground in the one mile Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream last time out, finishing second by 1 ¾ lengths to the speedy Bluegrass Singer. That one came back to finish third recently in the Holy Bull Stakes (G-2). Ami’s Flatter should excel with distance. He’s a half brother to ARAGORN AMI, who won the Martha Washington Stakes. Ami’s Flatter’s dam is an unraced full sister to stakes winner VICTORIOUS AMI, dam of multiple stakes winner AMI’S HOLIDAY, a winner from 1 1/16 miles to 1 ½ miles. Ami’s Flatter came back to work a post-race bullet and should be ready to take a step forward.

 

CATALINA RED (Munnings - Lovely Dream, by Freud) has speed on the rail. He showed his love for the Tampa circuit winning both of his starts at the track. The son of Munnings won his maiden while setting a stakes record of 1:09.32 for six furlongs in the Inaugural Stakes, winning by 7 ¼ lengths. Next out, Catalina Red sat slightly off of the pace in the seven-furlong Pasco Stakes before beating eventual Hutcheson Stakes runner-up X Y Jet in a track record time of 1:21.40. Catalina Red’s pedigree is speed oriented. His sire’s progeny haven’t won beyond a mile seventy yards. Damsire Freud, a full brother to Giant’s Causeway, offers some stamina, but Catalina Red’s distaff line is primarily sprinter/miler oriented. He’s a half brother to Whisky Bravo, a stakes placed turf sprinter and Catalina Red’s first five dams all own minor blacktype. The Chad Stewart barn is 0-7 in graded stakes.

 

OCEAN KNIGHT (Curlin - Ocean Goddess, by Stormy Atlantic) Ocean Knight made short work of a herd of maidens running six furlongs at Aqueduct last month in a sharp 1:11.94, while being geared down. Ocean Knight’s sire two-time Horse of the Year Curlin is making his mark as one of the best studs in America. Ocean Knight’s dam is a half sister to the stakes winning sprinter LIBBY'S HALO  and stakes placed Mister Alimony. Conditioned by Kiaran McLaughlin, Ocean Knight had a strong four furlong breeze at Palm Meadows in his last work.

Spoilers

MY JOHNNY BE GOOD (Colonel John - Im So Fine, by Elusive Quality) flashed his love for Tampa in a big way with a 14 length win over optional claimers in a swift 1:09.33 for six furlongs. He’s Crittenden’s stablemate and appears to be better placed here. There’s little blacktype in My Johnny Be Good’s first two generations, but he has hails from the same family as Grade 1 winning sprinter THE LUMBER GUY. The colt worked a pre-race bullet and should improve in his second start off of a layoff.

 

ROYAL SON (Tiznow - Mama Nadine, by A.P. Indy) won his maiden last out upon disqualification of the winner. The Todd Pletcher trainee has the pedigree of a late-bloomer and should love Classic distances. Royal Son’s dam MAMA NADINE won a stakes race at one mile seventy yards. Royal Son’s second dam COUNTESS DIANA was a Champion Two Year Old Filly. In five of the last nine years, Todd Pletcher has won the Sam Davis Stakes, including last year with VINCEREMOS.

Long Shots Worth a Look

DIVINING ROD (Tapit - Precious Kitten, by Catienus) won his debut in an off the turf mile contest at Laurel. Next time out against Crittenden, Divining Rod was stuck on the inside and wasn’t able to get a clear run until late. His dam is a multiple Grade 1 winner on the lawn and a full sister to Champion Turf Horse and sire KITTEN’S JOY. A half sister to Precious Kitten bore Champion Two Year Old Filly DREAMING OF ANNA, who won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G-1) over dirt and the Summer Stakes (G-3) over turf. By the hot sire Tapit, Divining Rod could develop into a versatile, top-class runner.

 

COOMER (Midshipman - Dixie Satin, by Dynaformer) picked a tough place to make his first start of the year. He won impressively against $50,000 claimers last November at Churchill going 1 1/16 miles. He has a speed over stamina pedigree and there’s some minor blacktype in the second generation of his distaff line. Coomer breezed a pre-race five furlong bullet. I always respect entries from the Maker barn and Leparoux stays on the colt. Could be something here.

Toss

CRITTENDEN (Distorted Humor - Calla Lily, by Pulpit) won his last two races at Tampa, including a 2 ¼ length score over Divining Rod last time out. What’s not to like? The Eoin Harty conditioned colt was trounced 17 lengths in his only dirt start. This colt’s future appears to be on the turf, but naturally, when one has an aspiring three year old at this time of year, it never hurts to take a shot in a Derby prep. He’s a half brother to the G-2 stakes placed turf runner Side Road. Crittenden’s dam is multiple stakes placed over the lawn and was unplaced in three starts on dirt. She’s a half sister to Arlington Million (G-1) hero HARDEST CORE. Yes, Crittenden worked a second to last bullet on the dirt, however, a controlled work on dirt cannot emulate race conditions.

 

BANDAGES (Any Given Saturday - Beauty Is, by Personal Flag) is Catalina Red’s less accomplished stablemate. He won his maiden at Tampa and has two five furlong works under his girth. Four of his six half siblings own blacktype, including the multiple stakes veterans WAYZATA BAY and YOURNOTTHEBOSSOFME. Bandages should enjoy the distance, but his late pace speed figures are poor.

 

BROTHER BOBO (Kantharos - Private Prom Party, by Private Terms) was a distant sixth when stretching out to a mile against stakes company in the Mucho Macho Man. Freshman sire Kantharos is getting offspring who are showing distance limitations past a mile. Brother Bobo is a half brother to the talented stakes winning sprinter RIBO BOBO and stakes placed sprinter Private Money Game. The trainer/jockey combo of Servis and Saez are 0-10.

 

G FIVE (Flashy Bull - Fly Don't Drive, by Harlan's Holiday) can’t beat optional claimers at Gulfstream or Gulfstream West. Despite this race being at Tampa, there’s a solid field in the Sam Davis and G Five is outclassed on paper. G Five’s dam is a half to a multiple Grade 3 sprinter and another half sister bore Del Mar Oaks heroine SUMMER SOIREE. G Five hasn’t shown much speed and this seems to be an odd place for the Pletcher trainee.

 

BEARS PERSONALITY (Awesome Again - Yearly Attitude, by Event of the Year) will be tackling dirt for the first time in his five race career. He needed time to get his act together at Woodbine, but he won his last two starts. There is one blacktype earner in his first three distaff generations. Bears Personality has average to good works at Palm Meadows, but his late pace speed figures are poor. He likes to be up near the pace and will be forced to go wide from his outside post.

Selections

Only two of the last ten winners of the Sam Davis Stakes won over the track last time out. Front runners and pace pressers have had the most success in the race. The rail is winning at 17% this meet.

#3 AMI'S FLATTER

#2 ROYAL SON

#1 CATALINA RED

#5 DIVINING ROD – longshot play

Spiral to the Kentucky Derby

Check out the analysis and selections for the Sunland Derby at ThoroFan's Weekend Handicapper's Corner 

The Spiral Stakes (also run as the Jim Beam Stakes from 1982 – 2001) has sent two colts to the Kentucky Derby winner's circle. The race has also produced two Preakness heroes and a couple of Classic runner-ups.

Picture by Mel & Rick at Daily Racing Funnies http://dailyracingfunnies.com/ check them out!

A full field of twelve colts will scramble 1 1/8 miles over the Turfway Park Polytrack for a chance to win 50 points in the Kentucky Derby points system. Second place is worth 20 points, 10 points for third and 5 points for fourth place.

Here's where pedigree handicapping comes in handy. 1 1/8 miles separates the middle-distance/classically bred horses from the sprinter/milers. Also, certain sires are noted for getting runners over Poly.

Below are the horses who should handle poly and 1 1/8 miles:

BALANCE THE BOOKS (Lemon Drop Kid - Kreisleriana, by Seeking the Gold) by a Champion Older Horse out of a stakes mare by the sire of four Breeders' Cup winners, Balance The Books has the pedigree to handle 1 ¼ miles. He hasn't tried Poly, but his sire is an above average producer of poly runners. Of concern is the lack of stamina works and the tough spot to come back off of a layoff.

CHANNEL ISLE (English Channel - Dandanna (IRE), by Linamix (FR)) placed behind Taken by the Storm twice as a two year old. His sire is an excellent producer of turf and Poly runners and Channel Isle is a winner at 1 1/8 miles. Trainer Wayne Lukas has revived his career this year with wins in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Sprint, Lecomte Stakes and one-two finishes in the Rebel.

UNCAPTURED (Lion Heart - Captivating, by Arch) the only black mark on this colt's record is an off the board finish in the Gray Stakes after encountering racing trouble. He's a winner over Poly and he has the pedigree to handle classic distances. Like Balance The Books, Uncaptured is making his three year old debut in the Spiral. Unlike that rival, Uncaptured has been prepared with a string of stamina works.

FEAR THE KITTEN (Kitten's Joy - Dynarhythm, by Dynaformer) has strong Spiral implications. Kitten's Joy sired 2010 Spiral winner Dean's Kitten and Dynaformer produced 2002 Spiral winner Perfect Drift. Trainer Mike Maker trained Dean's Kitten and 2006 Spiral winner With a City. Fear the Kitten is making his third start off of a layoff, has improving BRIS speed figures and owns a second to last bullet work. Fear him.

FOR GREATER GLORY (Afleet Alex - Lady's Touch, by Touch Gold) found trouble in the stretch of the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes, but was right there at the finish. His polytrack pedigree is average and he is likely a better dirt horse. On the plus side, there's no shortage of stamina in his pedigree. His sire won the Kentucky Derby/Preakness; his damsire won the Belmont Stakes and second damsire is the legendary Secretariat. For Greater Glory's unraced dam is a ¾ sister to Ashland Stakes (G-1) winner Well Chosen (by Deputy Minister). That one is the dam of two-time Sword Dancer (G-1) hero Telling.

GENERAL ELECTION (Harlan's Holiday - Menekineko, by Kingmambo) won the John Battaglia Memorial after going eight wide on the turn at Turfway in his last race. With the Classic/Stout Chef-de-race Kingmambo as his damsire and three-time Champ Spectacular Bid as his second damsire, General Election should have no difficulty navigating 1 1/8 miles. General Election is a half brother to Breeders' Cup Mile winner Ready's Echo (by More Than Ready).

BLACK ONYX (Rock Hard Ten - Kalahari Cat, by Cape Town) showed instant improvement when switched to the grass in his last start. Not surprising, since his sire's progeny are best over turf and Poly. Rock Hard Ten spent his racing career on the dirt and won the Santa Anita Handicap (G-1), but as a son of Kris S. his turf genes are showing. Black Onyx's damsire Cape Town won the Florida Derby. As a damsire, he's represented by only one stakes winner at 1 1/8 miles, Louisiana Derby surprise Pants on Fire.

GIANT FINISH (Frost Giant - Apocalyptic, by Hickman Creek) made all of the pace in the John Battaglia Memorial to just miss the win by ½ length to General Election. The colt was shipping, trying a new distance and surface for the first time. His young sire has only 18 starters, but 13 of them have won, including two stakes winners. His sire Giant's Causeway gave us 2009 Spiral winner Hold Me Back. Giant Finish's dam is a half sister to the dam of multiple G-1 sprinter Crafty C.T.

TAKEN BY THE STORM (Stormy Atlantic - Paint Brush, by Broad Brush) is a winner over Polytrack. He has the bloodlines of Derby/Preakness runner-up Broad Brush, plus Classic heros Unbridled and Seattle Slew as his second and third damsires. There is little blacktype in his immediate female family, however, Taken by the Storm's third dam is a full sister to the dam of Lemon Drop Kid and she's a half to the dams of A.P. Indy and Summer Squall. Taken by the Storm breezed a bullet in his last work and won an optional claiming race over the turf in his last start.

MAC THE MAN ( El Corredor - Marchmont, by Mountain Cat) has dominated the prep races at Turfway Park by a combined 14 ½ lengths. He's a half to Charlies Quest (by Quest), who placed in a 1 ½ mile stakes race. Mac the Man has shown improving BRIS speed figures in every start. He may try to gallop them into submission, but lone speed doesn't fare well in the Spiral.

The following horses are borderline for 1 1/8 miles or may not handle Polytrack.

MY NAME IS MICHAEL (Macho Uno - Graciously Soft, by Vindication) is a stakes winner over Poly. He closed quickly to finish third in the Sam Davis stakes, his first start of the season. The colt missed almost a month of training due to illness and his pedigree is light on stamina. His damsire's daughters are just starting to bear offspring. Vindication has one other stakes winner, Sunland Derby entrant Shaken It Up. My Name Is Michael's dam is a half sister to the multiple Grade 1 router Spoken Fur and to Grade 1 turf sprinter Unbridled's Note.

CAPO BASTONE (Street Boss - Fight to Love, by Fit to Fight) won his maiden over the DelMar Pol, but the colt appears distance challenged. His second crop sire never raced beyond 7 furlongs and set a new track record for 6 furlongs. So far, his offspring have yet to win beyond 1 1/16 miles in the US. Capo Bastone's dam and half siblings won at 1 1/6 miles, but not beyond. A half sister placed at 1 1/8 miles. Fit to Fight,  Capo Bastone's damsire, won from a mile to 1 1/2 miles, including victories in the Met Mile, Suburban and Brooklyn, plus the Jerome and Stuyvesant.  No problem with stamina there....except that as a broodmare sire, his offspring appear more stamina oriented. Only four have won a stakes at 1 1/8 miles and none beyond that distance. Capo Bastone barely held on to win his three year old debut at 1 1/6 miles in a slow 1:48 at Gulfstream. He should benefit greatly from the race.

SELECTIONS

Track bias: In the last six years, three press pacers, two stalkers and one mid-pack runner won the Spiral. Frontrunners, even lone speed, haven't fared well. Only one pace setter has finished in the money in the last six editions of the Spiral.

Four colts like to be on or pressing the pace. Mack the Man, Uncaptured, Giant Finish and For Greater Glory. Uncaptured has an almost perfect race record and it would be a masterful training job by Mark Casse to ship in and win a 1 1/8 mile stakes race in his first race off of a 119 day layoff. At M/L odds of 3-1 I'll pass for the win, but the colt might finish in the money. Balance The Books is entering off of a 140 day layoff. Same goes for him. Could Capo Bastone advance over the Poly? Possible, but there are still distance considerations. Pletcher has had a Spiral entrant in almost every edition of the race. He's won twice since 2001.

There are some intriguing longshots in the race. Fear The Kitten has Spiral connections, is making his third start off of a layoff and owns a sharp bullet work two back. His speed figures appear a little slow, but that was over dirt. He should get a boost on Poly. Another horse who should show improvement with a switch to poly is Channel Isle. The colt was three wide and improve his position in the Southwest Stakes and he's a winner at 1 1/8 miles. If he's kept a little closer to the pace we could be looking at a winner. General Election is co-owner of the highest late pace speed figure. He flew eight wide yet won his last race and he should love the extra real estate.

#8 General Election
#4 Fear The Kitten
#3 Uncaptured
#2 Channel Isle – longshot pick

Remsen Stakes (G-2) Pedigree Profiles and Handicapping Selections

The historical Remsen Stakes (G-2) has been run consecutively since 1918 and several winners competed successfully in the Spring Classics. In the last twenty years, two Kentucky Derby heroes completed the Remsen/Derby double and Pine Bluff notched a Remsen/Preakness double. 2005 Remsen victor Bluegrass Cat was second in the Derby and 2002 Remsen third place finisher Empire Maker won the Belmont. Get more Juvenile Stakes race selections on Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds website.

To Honor And Serve: Photo - Coglianese

This year, two highly regarded sons of the fantastic freshman sire Bernardini are scheduled to take on five other colts in the Remsen Stakes. The likely favorite To Honor and Serve (Bernardini – Pilfer, by Deputy Minister) has demolished his competition by over 12 lengths in his last two races, including the Grade 2 Nashua. To Honor and Serve has a pedigree that bodes well for next year’s Classics. Read more about him in our November 10 blog posting.

Buffum (inside) Photo: Coglianese

The other well-regarded colt who may go to the post as the second choice in the betting is Buffum (Bernardini – Storm Beauty, by Storm Cat). The Tom Albertrani trainee sat off of a swift :45 2/5 half mile and took the lead at the top of the stretch. He raced greenly in mid-stretch, ducking out from a left handed whip, but held off the second place finisher by a nose. Buffum is a half brother to multiple stakes winner Stormy West and brought to you by the family of Champion Sprinter Gold Beauty (dam of Dajur and Maplejinsky and grand-dam to Champion Older Mare Sky Beauty), Multiple Grade 1 winners Pine Island, Pleasant Home, and Tale of Ekati. Buffum‘s second, fourth and fifth dams are blue hens. Buffum had a strong five furlong breeze for this race.
Two horses that contested the Nashua Stakes will aim for better results in the Remsen. Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno – Ponche De Leona, by Ponche) offered no challenge to Honor And Serve in the Nashua, but his speed figures have been improving. He probably won’t want to go farther than 1 1/16 miles. His sire has a few winners at 1 1/8 miles, but produces mostly miler types. Mucho Macho Man’s dam and damsire are stakes winning sprinters.

Economic Summit - Photo: Coglianese

Economic Summit (Malibu Moon – Summit Lite, by Mt. Livermore) was a distant fifth in the Nashua after winning his maiden by a length. He has a stamina over speed pedigree and may find the distance a half-furlong too far. His dam is a half sister to Grade 3 turf winner Strategic Partner. Second dam Very Special Lite set a new course record for a mile in 1:33.60 at Keeneland. The graded stakes winning miler Two Step Salsa was produced by this distaff family.

Bandbox - Photo: Coglianese

Many eyes will be on Bandbox (Tapit – Empty The Bases, by Grand Slam). The pretty gray colt is undefeated and has won his three races by over ten lengths, including the Sleepy Hollow Stakes for state-breds. Bandbox will be stretching from a sprint to 1 1/8 miles, which could be within his range, but he probably won’t want to go much farther. Tapit has some Grade 2 winning colts, but his most talented offspring are fillies and he has only three stakes winners at 1 1/8 miles. Bandbox has no blacktype in the first two generations, but his third dam won a couple of stake races. Many of his dam’s half siblings made 10 or more starts.
The well-bred Mountain Town (Cape Town – Mountain Bird, by Mt. Livermore) was a distant second in the Champange Stakes (G-1) to eventual Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Uncle Mo. Mountain Town is a product of the Whitney family breeding program. His dam is a graded stakes placed half sister to Belmont Stakes winner Birdstone and Kentucky Oaks winner Bird Town his second dam Dear Birdie was the 2004 Broodmare of the Year. Mountain Town has worked well but his pedigree indicates that he’ll be better at shorter distances.
Pants On Fire (Jump Start – Cabo De Noche, by Cape Town) took three tries to win his maiden, but got the job done against softer company over a sloppy track at Delaware. The Kelly Breen trainee has a stamina over speed pedigree. His sire Jump Start, a well bred son of A.P. Indy, produced Grade 2 winners Rail Trip and Sir Whimsey. His offspring are generally best at a mile and farther. Cape Town generally gets sprinters, but his speed is tempered by the stamina influence of third damsire Bates Motel. Pants On Fire’s dam is a half sister to stakes winning sprinters Hatfield and Key Hunter. Pants On Fire’s speed figures have improved with every start.
Selections:
How the track is playing: So far, only two races have been held at the 1 1/8 mile distance at Aqueduct this meet. Both were won by pace setter/pressers on the rail, typical for this track.
To Honor And Serve has already bested two entrants and is the only graded stakes winner in the field. Mucho Man and Pants On Fire may try to press the pace while the rest sit in varying positions behind Bandbox may post the strongest threat to the top horse. Bandbox has stakes experience and his off the pace running style could help. His pedigree is borderline for this distance. Buffum will get plenty of attention off of his maiden win. His pedigree suggests that this distance might not be within his scope and he may be overbet. Mountain Town was no match for the best two year old colt in the nation, but meets a softer group here. He could also find the distance too far, but his stalking running style can help. Mucho Macho Man’s speed figures have improved with every race and he can move forward in his second start off of a brief layoff.
To Honor And Serve
Bandbox
Buffum
Mucho Macho Man - longshot

Weekend Update 11-20-10

Hollywood Premier

Premier Pegasus (Fusaichi Pegasus – Squall Linda, by Summer Squall) remained un-defeated in the Hollywood Prevue and will be the likely favorite for next month’s Cash Call Futurity. The half brother to Norfolk Stakes (G-1) victor Street Hero wired the field by 1 ½ lengths, getting the seven furlongs in 1:22.78.

 

By Street Cry, Street Hero was injured and retired after his two year old season and never had a chance to prove himself at longer distances. Premier Pegasus has a more speed-oriented pedigree than his older half-brother. At stud, his sire Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus gets stakes winners up to 1 1/8 miles, however he does have six turf stakes winners at 1 ¼ miles.

Premier Pegasus receives stamina from his first three damsires, yet his dam Squall Linda was a stakes placed sprinter who won or placed in 11 of 17 starts. She is a half sister to the stakes warrior Kohen With a K, who won 10 of 59 starts as a turf sprinter. Squall Linda has inbreeding to Lavendula, who is Squall Linda’s fourth dam. Lavendula was a precocious sprinter and won three of nine starts at age two. Lavendula produced Source Sucree, Squall Linda’s third dam and a stakes winner at 11 furlongs. Source Sucree is a half sister to the stallion Ambiorix who won from a mile to 1 ½ miles. Ambiorix was bred to Source Sucree’s daughter Giff-Gaff, a ¾ sister to the brilliant chef – de – race Turn To. An interesting note - Turn- To the grandsire of Halo. Halo is the second damsire of Fusaichi Pegasus.

Summer Squall

Premier Pegasus damsire Summer Squall is an excellent broodmare sire and works well with the Mr. Prospector sire line. There are six graded stakes winners based upon the Mr. Prospector/Summer Squall bloodline cross. Of those, only Seeking The Best, a turf miler in Japan has Mr. Prospector in her second generation, similar to Premier Pegasus.

Premier Pegasus’ second damsire The Axe II raced for five years, winning 15 of 38 starts. He won from six to 13 furlongs on the turf and retired sound. Going back another generation, Premier Pegasus’ third damsire Ambiorix raced in France and won stakes races from a mile to 1 ½ miles.

Despite the stamina farther back in his pedigree, one must also take into account Premier Pegasus’ pace setting running style. He will likely be at his best up to 1 1/6 miles, but could carry his speed 1 1/8 miles if unpressured on the lead, especially if traveling over the lawn. Premier Pegasus should be able to get the distance of the 1 1/16 Cash Call Futurity, but a protracted speed duel could be his undoing.

 

Jackpot!

Gourmet Dinner - Photo: Coady

Since its inception, the victors of the Delta Jackpot have been sprinter/milers. This year isn’t an exception. Gourmet Dinner (Trippi - Potluck Dinner, Pentelicus) invaded from Florida and the In Reality Stakes runner-up was virtually ignored in the betting, going to the gate at 20-1. The bay colt tried blinkers for the first time and relaxed off of the pace. He rewarded his connections with a strong sustained move down the stretch getting 1 1/6 miles in 1:45.23.

Gourmet Dinner has speed top and bottom in his pedigree. His sire and damsire are both descended from Mr. Prospector, who in this case, is a brilliant speed influence. Additionally, inbreeding to In Reality also lends speed to Gourmet Dinner.

Trippi - Photo: Coglianese

Gourmet Dinner’s sire Trippi was a seven furlong specialist, Vosburgh (G-1) over More Than Ready, but he also outclassed his rivals in the 1 1/8 mile Flamingo Stakes. At stud, Trippi transfer speed to his offspring. He has nine stakes winners at a mile and three winners at 1 1/8 miles.

Gourmet Dinner’s damsire Pentelicus was a multiple listed stakes winner at six furlongs. His daughters produce mostly sprinter/milers, however Pentelicus is the damsire of the graded stakes warrior Awesome Gem and Mecke Daughter, a Grade 1 stakes winner in Puerto Rico. Both have won at 1 ¼ miles.

Trippi has 13 offspring out of Pentelicus mares with nine starters and six winners. Gourmet Dinner is the only stakes winner to date.

Gourmet Dinner’s dam Potluck Dinner was unplaced in her only start, but has shined in the breeding shed. All six of her foals to race are winners and are durable runners. Her first foal, I’mroyalymecke’d raced 55 times and was stakes placed. She also produced stakes winner Gaston A She’s a half sister to the sprint stakes winners Lady Gin, Sea Of Green, and her half sister Almost Aprom Queen is the dam of 2010 Oak Leaf Stakes (G-1) winner Rigoletta.

Gourmet Dinner’s mid-pack running style should enable him to get two turns, although 1 1/8 miles might be out of his scope against top stakes runners. According to his trainer Steven Standridge, Gourmet Dinner will point to the one mile Holy Bull Stakes in January at Gulfstream Park.

In the Hoofprints of a Kentucky Derby Contender

Payson Park Training Center

Like snowbirds, promising two year old race horses head south in the fall, usually after the Breeders’ Cup. Many wind up at Palm Meadows Training Center in Delray Beach, Florida or farther north at Payson Park in Indiantown.

Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds will follow the up-and-coming colt To Honor and Serve throughout the winter and spring to give horse fans an idea of the intense preparation needed to get a horse through the Triple Crown prep races. Since To Honor and Serve is still in New York, we’ll review his bloodlines and determine if his pedigree indicates if he can go 1 ¼ miles and longer.

To Honor and Serve as a yearling

To Honor and Serve began his life on March 18, 2008 and was bred by Twin Creeks Farm, Larry Byer and Rancho San Miguel in Kentucky’s bluegrass region. The good-looking colt fetched $250,000 as a 2008 Keeneland November weanling and commanded $575,000 from Live Oak Plantation as a Keeneland September Yearling.

Sent to Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, To Honor and Serve began his career on August 4 in a seven furlong dirt maiden race at Saratoga. He found the distance a little too shot, but managed a sharp second place finish to the well regarded Astrology, who would later capture the Iroquois Stakes (G-3) at Churchill. Stretching out to 1 1/16 miles on October 2, To Honor and Serve made short work of a large field of maidens.

To Honor and Serve Maiden Win October 2, 2010

A month later while all eyes were watching Uncle Mo defeat a nice group of colts in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs, To Honor and Serve was quietly crushing an average field of two year olds in the Nashua Stakes (G-2) at Aqueduct. In the Nashua, To Honor and Serve went to the lead and never looked back. He ran a mile in 1.35.86, getting the last quarter in 23.76, while under a mild hand ride.

 Bill Mott, the bay colt’s trainer, elected to keep To Honor and Serve out of the Breeders’ Cup because of the colt’s light racing experience.
 

Nashua Stakes (G-2)

Bernardini

To Honor and Serve has a pedigree that bodes well for next year’s Classics. He is by freshman sire Bernardini out of the Deputy Minister mare Pilfer. Bernardini, a son of A.P. Indy, raced for only one year and made it count. He had the speed to win the Withers’ Stakes at a mile, the Preakness Stakes at 1 3/16 miles and proved himself to be the top three year old with victories in the Jim Dandy at 1 1/8 miles and Travers Stakes at 1 ¼ miles. In the fall, Bernardini defeated his elders in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, but his racing schedule caught up to him in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, where he finished second to Invasor. 

 At stud, Bernardini is passing his class and talent on to his offspring. Besides To Honor and Serve, the first crop sire’s progeny includes Group 1 winner Biondetti, Grade 1 winner AZ Warrior and graded/group stakes placed Theyskens’ Theory and Stay Thirsty.

Deputy Minster, Honor and Serve’s dam sire, won multiple graded stakes from five furlongs to 1 1/8 miles and was second in the Meadowlands Handicap (G-1) at 1 ¼ miles. In 1981, he earned acclaim as Horse of the Year and Champion Two Year Old Male in Canada, and Champion Two Year old Male in the USA.

Deputy Minister - Photo: Tony Leonard

Deputy Minster failed to win past 1 1/8 miles, but many of his offspring didn’t have distance limitations. He produced Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Awesome Again, Kentucky Oaks heroine Keeper Hill, Belmont Stakes winner Touch Gold and Travers Stakes winner Deputy Commander. The remarkable fillies Go For Wand Open Mind and precocious colt Dehere captured Eclipse Awards as Juveniles.

Deputy Minster was a very good sire, toping the leader board in 1997-1998, but he really distinguished himself as a broodmare sire and captured leading broodmare sire honors in 2007. The daughters of Deputy Minster have produced 82 stakes winners, including Belmont Stakes winners Rages to Riches, Jazil and Savara, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Halfbridled, Horse of the Year Curlin, turf star and top sire Redattore.

To Honor and Serve ‘s dam Pilfer won the 1 1/16 mile Go For Wand Stakes and placed in the Instant Racing Breeders' Cup Stakes at a mile. She raced three years with an overall record of 11-3-2-0 and earnings of $126,360. Pilfer made two starts as a juvenile, wining and placing respectively. She won one sprint, and two routes including a win over an off track. Pilfer is a half sister to the swift multiple stakes winning sprinter India. To Honor and Serve’s second dam was a stakes winner and finished second in the Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes.

To Honor and Serve’s distaff family 4-r is one of the most prolific in the breed. His fourth dam Java Moon is a blue hen (superior female) and her daughters have produced Memories of Silver and her daughter, recent Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf placed runner Winter Memories. Other branches of this family have given us Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos, international sires Dynaformer and Runaway Groom, and the great Zenyatta.

To Honor and Serve - Photo: Coglianese

To Honor and Serve is being pointed to the Remsen Stakes at 1 1/8 miles on November 27. Afterward, he will likely join trainer Bill Mott’s stable at Payson Park for the winter. On paper, To Honor and Serve has a shot to become a legitimate Triple Crown contender and so far has proven to have the talent to be competitive in next year’s prep races. Starting in December, Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds will follow To Honor and Serve’s progress at Payson Park with videos and weekly reports throughout the winter. Until then, we will post weekly reviews of other promising juveniles that may wind up on the Triple Crown Trail.