Wood Memorial & Santa Anita Derby – Pedigree Handicapping

By the close of Saturday's racing in New York and California, we'll have a clearer picture of next month's Kentucky Derby field.

WOOD MEMORIAL (G-1)

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In New York at Aqueduct, the battle of the V's will take place in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G-1). Verrazano and Vyjack have been unbeatable. Unless they deadheat at the finish line, one of these fine colts will head back to his stall with a slightly blemished record. The 1 1/8 mile Wood Memorial (G-1) offers 100 Derby Points to the victor – a win and you're in race.

 Eight other colts will face off against VERRAZANO and VYJACK. 

 In his first race of the season, NORMANDY INVASION closed with a last to first rush – but finished fifth once the dust had settled on the Risen Star. He just missed by a nose at 1 1/8 miles last year, so we know that he should handle the distance. He's been firing bullets at Palm Meadows and could be dangerous.

Poor ELNAAWI had the worst trip of all in the Gotham Stakes. He bashed into West Hills Giant at the start, was yanked over to the rail where he was caught tight, bumped again while having to steady, swung four wide around the far turn, and still managed to close for third place. The half brother to multiple Grade 1 winner To Honor And Serve gets a jockey switch, and hopefully, a better ride.

QUINZIEME MONARQUE (Rock Hard Ten - Quintela (GB), by Giant's Causeway) has the pedigree of a turf router and appears to be too slow for today's class level. He gets first time lasix, but he may need pyrotechnics strapped to his back to have an impact. Don't blame the horse. He's a late May foal and still developing, technically, he's still a two year old. Let's see him later in the year on the turf. 

Like many slower-developing colts, MR PALMER (Pulpit - In Truth, by Quiet American) is maturing into a nice three year old. We'll find out how nice after the Wood Memorial. He's won his first two starts of the year, including a minor stakes at 1 1/8 miles. His first three dams are unraced, however, this distaff line had produced some nice runners, including multiple Grade 1 winner and sire, Behrens, the hard-knocking Commentator, multiple stakes winner Cowboy Cal and Sunland Derby runner-up Show Some Magic. 

ALWAYS IN A TIZ (Tiznow - Calendar Girl, by Elusive Quality) made a huge three-wide move in the Southwest, but couldn't sustain his bid. He gets blinkers, but appears a cut below Grade 1 company.His dam is stakes-placed at 1 1/16 miles. Other than that, this immediate distaff line is unremarkable. 

GO GET THE BASIL (Andromeda's Hero - Images in Jade, by Jade Hunter) has been tearing it up in allowance/optional claiming company. His sire's claim to fame was a second place finish in the 2005 Belmont Stakes. All of Go Get the Basil's half siblings are winners and one is minor stakes placed. This is a modest female family filled with some minor stakes winners. Go Get the Basil has been working well and it's time to see if he belongs. 

Two recent maiden winners bookend the Wood Memorial field. CHRISANDTHECAPPER and FREEDOM CHILD won their last races by entire zip codes last time out, but appear up against it, class and speed figure wise.

SELECTIONS

Track bias: two races were held this week at 1 1/8 miles. Both were won by off the pace runners. However, this meet, 55% of the 9F races were won by early speed, with 27% going gate to wire. 

The two V's are an automatic include. VERRAZANO appears to be controlling speed, although may let Freedom Child and/or Chrisandthecapper set the pace. Either way, he has tractable speed and figures to get the jump on the rest of them. VYJACK showed a new dimension by sitting behind horses in the Gotham. His pedigree is borderline for 1 1/8 miles, but he's been outrunning the paper. ELNAAWI switches to a better jock and if the talented colt has recovered from his last punishing race, could upset the race. MR. PALMER is a fast-developing colt and owns the highest late pace speed figure in the field. NORMANDY INVASION is dangerous and shouldn't be left off of the ticket. He may need a pace to run at. ALWAYS IN A TIZ's trainer is 0-9 in graded stakes this year and 11% with the blinkers on angle.

#8 VERRAZANO
#4 ELNAAWI
#5 VYJACK
#6 MR. PALMER – longshot pick
 

SANTA ANITA DERBY (G-1)

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The Santa Anita Derby (G-1) field was dealt a blow when San Felipe Stakes winner HEAR THE GHOST was scatched from the race and is now off of the Kentucky Derby trail.

In the San Felipe, FLASHBACK and GOLDENCENTS tangled in a speed duel. Flashback received an immediate jockey change and I expect Kevin Krigger's ears are still ringing from trainer Doug O'Neil's comments.

One of the horses who benefited from the speedster's suicidal match race in the San Felipe was TIZ A MINISTER. He owns a speed over stamina pedigree which is borderline for 1 1/8 miles. However, his off of the pace running style should enable him to handle the distance. 

SUPER NINETY NINE (Pulpit - Exogenetic, by Unbridled's Song) had two back-to-back spectacular victories in an allowance and the Southwest Stakes. Then bombed in the Rebel Stakes as the favorite. He enters with the usual fast Baffert works and owns a pedigree suited to 1 1/8 miles. Does he have a couple more good races left in him or has he peaked? 

POWER BROKER (Pulpit - Shop Again, by Wild Again) hasn't faced competition since his rough fifth place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Only one horse has won the Santa Anita Derby in his three year old debut – and that was back in the 1930's. 

According to his form, DIRTY SWAG is better suited to Polytrack and might want to give the turf a shot – either that, or a step down in competition. 

There's always a few in every crowd. I'm talking about LOM's (Last Out Maiden winners). Either the trainers are doing the racing secretary a favor for betting purposes, or someone is having hallucinations brought on by Derby fever. SUMMER EXCLUSIVE will attempt to jump from a maiden sprint race to 1 1/8 miles. STORM FIGHTER will jump from state-bred company into a Grade 1.

SELECTIONS

Track bias: Four races have been run at 1 1/8 miles over the main track. Two were won by a front runner, while two were pace pressers/mid-pack runners. 

Neither Flashback or Goldencents has the best pedigree to get 1 1/8 miles. Both prefer to be forwardly placed. Summer Exclusive has :21 speed, and may foil the speed duel. Either way, there's a lot of speed in here with plenty of pedigrees suspect for the distance. Tiz A Minister recorded the highest late pace speed figure in the field. A fast pace will benefit him and he'll come rolling late. Power Broker has the pedigree to handle 1 1/8 miles. He may not have the conditioning to win, but he has the class to finish in the money. Super Ninety Nine likes to be near the front and has the pedigree to go long. I'm willing to draw a line through his last. 

#4 Tiz A Minister
#1 Flashback
#3 Power Broker
#6 Super Ninety Nine – longshot pick

Derby Day in Florida & Louisiana

FLORIDA DERBY

The roster of Florida Derby (G-1) winners who made an impact on the Triple Crown races reads like a who’s who of racing. In the last twelve years, seven horses who hit the board in the Florida Derby won the Kentucky Derby, Preakness or Belmont Stakes.

The Florida Derby naturally figures prominently on the Kentucky Derby trail. This year takes on new significance with the implementation of Derby Points. In previous Derby preps, the winners earned 50 points. With only 36 days before the run for the roses, the last remaining prep races up the ante with the winner scoring 100 points. The top three threats, ITSMYLUCKYDAY, ORB and SHANGHAI BOBBY need only to finish in the money to be assured of a trip to Kentucky in May. But the Florida Derby isn't all about them. There are a few new shooters that may have a say in the outcome of the race.

There's a lot of buzz surrounding PICK OF THE LITTER ( Kitten's Joy - Eagle Sound, by Fusaichi Pegasus). The last time out maiden winner blew the doors off of an off the turf 1 1/8 mile race, devastating his three competitors by 7 ½ lengths in a very sharp 1:49.35. The Dale Romans trainee followed up with two post race bullet works. Looking at Pick of the Litter's pedigree one would expect that he'd prefer turf to dirt. However, Kitten's Joy has sired eight dirt winners and Pick of the Litter's dam and half brother were both dirt sprinters.

INDY'S ILLUSION (A.P. Indy- Miss Illusion, by Mr. Prospector) has raced three times at 1 1/8 miles, improving his position each time. He was recently second by a neck after traveling three wide. Indy's Illusion has a classy pedigree. His dam is an unraced half sister to the stakes winning sprinter Apprehender (by Posse) Indy's Illusion's second dam is the multiple G1 winner Missys Mirage, a winner from 6 furlongs to 1 1/8 miles. She beat the well-bred multiple G-1 winner Versailles Treaty three times. Missys Mirage's half sister half sister Classy Mirage bore Hopeful Stakes winner Dublin.

FRAC DADDY (Scat Daddy - Skipper's Mate, by Skip Away)was one-paced in the Holy Bull Stakes in his first start of the season. He's picked it up in his morning training and has posted two consecutive bullet works. The colt has plenty of stamina in his distaff line, as his second dam Power Play won the Delaware Handicap at 1 ¼ miles. Read his pedigree profile here.

PONTIFF (Giant's Causeway - Preach, by Mr. Prospector) is a well-bred maiden who was second by a neck going 1 1/8 miles over a sloppy track last time out. A produced of careful Claiborne Farms breeding, Pontiff is a half brother to the recently deceased international sire Pulpit. Nine other half siblings have raced with only two of them earning blacktype. His dam and second dam are multiple graded stakes winners. Other members of this distaff family include Champion Johannesburg and his dam Champion Juvenile Minardi, plus popular sire Tale of the Cat and multiple stakes winner Fed Biz. Pontiff's works haven’t been spectacular and he's giving away experience in the Florida Derby.

MERIT MAN (With Distinction - Precise Strike, by Precise End) won the Spectacular Bid Stakes in January, but was a non-threatening fourth in the Hutcheson after being steadied. The Robert Hess, Jr. trainee's pedigree is light on stamina. His sire was a sprinter with moderate ability at the G-3 level. He won at a mile and was beaten 1/2 a length at 1 1/8 miles in an allowance race. Merit Man's dam was a sprinter. She won between 5 1/2F - 7F, but could do no better than third when stretched out to 1 mile 70 yards in 3 attempts. Damsire Precise End won at 1 1/6 miles and shorter. He has only two stakes winners as a broodmare sire. Neither have won past a mile. Adding more speed to the pedigree is the 2nd damsire Phone Trick.

ARE YOU KIDDING ME (Run Away and Hide - Sweet Awakening, by Street Cry (IRE)) experiments on dirt for the first time in his career. He made his first start of the season 21 days ago in a turf mile race at Tampa, where he was nipped by a nose at the wire. His sire was a very precocious speedball who won all three starts before becoming injured. So far, his offspring are doing well as sprinters, but have failed to win past a mile. Are You Kidding Me carries some stamina on his distaff side. His dam failed to win in two starts. She's a half sister to Illinois Derby (G-2) victor Recapturetheglory. The second dam Cold Awakening was stakes placed as a juvenile. She's a half sister to the popular stakes veteran Chilly Rooster. Are You Kidding Me posted two post-race breezes at Payson Park.

NARVAEZ (Holy Bull - Miss Lulu, by Unbridled) was up in time to dead heat in a 7 ½ furlong allowance race 21 days ago. Both his sire and damsire won their respective Florida Derbies and his damsire went on to capture the Kentucky Derby, so there's no shortage of stamina in Narvaez's pedigree. There's little blacktype in the first two generation's of his female family, although his dam is a half sister to a stakes placed runner and his second dam Miss Margi won the Oaklawn Breeders' Cup Handicap.

SELECTIONS

 

69% of the pace setters/pressers have won at 1 1/8 miles this meet. Outside posts are a distinct disadvantage as there are literally six steps to the first turn.

MERIT MAN takes the blinkers off, perhaps in an effort to get him to relax. He does his best running on the front end and his outside post guarantees that he'll have to be used early to grab that lead. His stamina challenged pedigree suggests that he'll be running out of steam around the second turn. He may also have to contend with SHANGHAI BOBBY on the front end with ITSMYLUCKYDAY, INDY'S ILLUSION and FRAC DADDY chasing in hot pursuit. ORB and ARE YOU KIDDING ME will do their best running late.

#6 ORB

#3 ITSMYLUCKYDAY

#1 SHANGHAI BOBBY

#7 INDY'S ILLUSION – longshot pick

Louisiana Derby

In the last three years, three colts who hit the board in the Louisiana Derby (G-1) also had a say in the outcome of the Triple Crown races. In 2010, Drosselmeyer was third in Louisiana’s premiere event and later won the Belmont Stakes. In 2011, the second and third place finishers in Louisiana also placed second and third in the Kentucky Derby.

This year, five colts who exited the Risen Star face one-another and nine new faces in the Louisiana Derby. Like the Florida Derby, the Louisiana Derby is worth 100 points to the winner, granting a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate.

CODE WEST and PALACE MALICE finished second and third in the Risen Star just missing in a blanket finish. Both have been training well and have the pedigrees to handle 1 1/8 miles.

GOLDEN SOUL, PROUD STRIKE and MYLUTE all tired after chasing the pace in the Risen Star. Of the three, Golden Soul have been working the best. Mylute may improve in his second start off of a layoff.

REVOLUTIONARY (War Pass - Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy) is getting a ton of attention after his courageous neck win in the Withers Stakes (G-3) in January. The well-bred colt has a speed over stamina pedigree. His works are average and trainer Todd Pletcher has won this race twice in the last six years. Read his Revolutionary's in-depth pedigree profile here.

Stablemates Departing and Sunbean scratched out of the Risen Star to race in the Texas Heritage Stakes and Gentilly Stakes.

DEPARTING (War Front - Leave, by Pulpit) is undefeated in three starts. Departing's distaff family is filled with Claiborne-bred stakes winners. His unraced dam is a full sister to the stakes winner Laity. She's a half sister to multiple G-3 winner Trip and also a half sister to the dam of multiple G-1 winning sprinter Zensational. Departing fired a very quick bullet in his last breeze.

SUNBEAN (Brahms - X Strawdnair, by Malagra) is a nose away from being undefeated in four starts. He takes a huge class jump from state-bred ranks into graded stakes company. Five of six of Sunbean's half siblings are Louisiana stakes veterans, including Mean Butterbean, Miss Bean Wah, Brother Bean, Good Human Bean, and Beanwah'smachine.

TITLETOWN FIVE (Tiznow - D' Wildcat Speed, by Forest Wildcat) jumps from 6F to 1 1/8 miles and takes a huge step up in company. He has a stamina over speed pedigree. Titletown Five's dam D' Wildcat Speed was a stakes winner in Puerto Rico and his second dam Velvet Panther was a Champion mare in Puerto Rico. D' Wildcat Speed is a half sister to the Calder stakes placed runners D' Broken Speed and D'Court Speed. Titletown Five has been breezing has been breezing well at Oaklawn.

Six colts are coming into the race at 20-1 odds or higher. The two best appear to be Ground Transport and Brazilian Court.

GROUND TRANSPORT (Big Brown - Extry, by Broad Brush) has won his last two races at the Fairgrounds and owns the highest late pace speed figure. His dam has yet to produce a blacktype runner, but she is a half sister to two Grade/Group 1 winners, the popular top turf mare Fire The Groom (dam of Group 1 winner and sire Stravinsky) and the English Group 1 sprinter Dowsing. Ground Transport has fired three consecutive bullets since his last win.

BRAZILIAN COURT (Harlan's Holiday - Devotedness, by Anet) has been stuck in maiden claiming races for much of his career, but suddenly turned the corner when he freaked in a 1 mile race, finishing in a different realm than his competition, over 19 lengths in front in a very sharp 1:36.83. He returned with a very strong second place finish, beaten ½ a length in the OBS Championship Stakes, a race his half brother Devoted Wildcat won last year. Brazilian Court's unraced dam is a half sister to the multiple stakes winner Join Effort. His damsire Anet was a multiple graded stakes winner at 1 1/8 miles.

SELECTIONS

Only three races have been held at 1 1/8 miles this meet. Two were won by pace setters, while the third was won by a closer. All broke from posts 4 – 7.

In a full field of 14 horses, anything and everything can happen. The best horse may receive the worst trip. This race will be a good lesson for those horses entering the Kentucky Derby. Titletown Five may be used early from his outside post to grab the lead. Code West and Proud Strike might be right there with him, along with Departing. Revolutionary will make his best run from the back of the pack and may wind up going wide. Sunbean can settle and come with a late run and Palace Malice may do the same. The last two editions of the Louisiana Derby were won by longshots. Let's go with a price for the win.

#7 Departing

#3 Revolutionary

#6 Sunbean

#13 Ground Transport – longshot pick

Spiral to the Kentucky Derby

Check out the analysis and selections for the Sunland Derby at ThoroFan's Weekend Handicapper's Corner 

The Spiral Stakes (also run as the Jim Beam Stakes from 1982 – 2001) has sent two colts to the Kentucky Derby winner's circle. The race has also produced two Preakness heroes and a couple of Classic runner-ups.

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A full field of twelve colts will scramble 1 1/8 miles over the Turfway Park Polytrack for a chance to win 50 points in the Kentucky Derby points system. Second place is worth 20 points, 10 points for third and 5 points for fourth place.

Here's where pedigree handicapping comes in handy. 1 1/8 miles separates the middle-distance/classically bred horses from the sprinter/milers. Also, certain sires are noted for getting runners over Poly.

Below are the horses who should handle poly and 1 1/8 miles:

BALANCE THE BOOKS (Lemon Drop Kid - Kreisleriana, by Seeking the Gold) by a Champion Older Horse out of a stakes mare by the sire of four Breeders' Cup winners, Balance The Books has the pedigree to handle 1 ¼ miles. He hasn't tried Poly, but his sire is an above average producer of poly runners. Of concern is the lack of stamina works and the tough spot to come back off of a layoff.

CHANNEL ISLE (English Channel - Dandanna (IRE), by Linamix (FR)) placed behind Taken by the Storm twice as a two year old. His sire is an excellent producer of turf and Poly runners and Channel Isle is a winner at 1 1/8 miles. Trainer Wayne Lukas has revived his career this year with wins in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Sprint, Lecomte Stakes and one-two finishes in the Rebel.

UNCAPTURED (Lion Heart - Captivating, by Arch) the only black mark on this colt's record is an off the board finish in the Gray Stakes after encountering racing trouble. He's a winner over Poly and he has the pedigree to handle classic distances. Like Balance The Books, Uncaptured is making his three year old debut in the Spiral. Unlike that rival, Uncaptured has been prepared with a string of stamina works.

FEAR THE KITTEN (Kitten's Joy - Dynarhythm, by Dynaformer) has strong Spiral implications. Kitten's Joy sired 2010 Spiral winner Dean's Kitten and Dynaformer produced 2002 Spiral winner Perfect Drift. Trainer Mike Maker trained Dean's Kitten and 2006 Spiral winner With a City. Fear the Kitten is making his third start off of a layoff, has improving BRIS speed figures and owns a second to last bullet work. Fear him.

FOR GREATER GLORY (Afleet Alex - Lady's Touch, by Touch Gold) found trouble in the stretch of the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes, but was right there at the finish. His polytrack pedigree is average and he is likely a better dirt horse. On the plus side, there's no shortage of stamina in his pedigree. His sire won the Kentucky Derby/Preakness; his damsire won the Belmont Stakes and second damsire is the legendary Secretariat. For Greater Glory's unraced dam is a ¾ sister to Ashland Stakes (G-1) winner Well Chosen (by Deputy Minister). That one is the dam of two-time Sword Dancer (G-1) hero Telling.

GENERAL ELECTION (Harlan's Holiday - Menekineko, by Kingmambo) won the John Battaglia Memorial after going eight wide on the turn at Turfway in his last race. With the Classic/Stout Chef-de-race Kingmambo as his damsire and three-time Champ Spectacular Bid as his second damsire, General Election should have no difficulty navigating 1 1/8 miles. General Election is a half brother to Breeders' Cup Mile winner Ready's Echo (by More Than Ready).

BLACK ONYX (Rock Hard Ten - Kalahari Cat, by Cape Town) showed instant improvement when switched to the grass in his last start. Not surprising, since his sire's progeny are best over turf and Poly. Rock Hard Ten spent his racing career on the dirt and won the Santa Anita Handicap (G-1), but as a son of Kris S. his turf genes are showing. Black Onyx's damsire Cape Town won the Florida Derby. As a damsire, he's represented by only one stakes winner at 1 1/8 miles, Louisiana Derby surprise Pants on Fire.

GIANT FINISH (Frost Giant - Apocalyptic, by Hickman Creek) made all of the pace in the John Battaglia Memorial to just miss the win by ½ length to General Election. The colt was shipping, trying a new distance and surface for the first time. His young sire has only 18 starters, but 13 of them have won, including two stakes winners. His sire Giant's Causeway gave us 2009 Spiral winner Hold Me Back. Giant Finish's dam is a half sister to the dam of multiple G-1 sprinter Crafty C.T.

TAKEN BY THE STORM (Stormy Atlantic - Paint Brush, by Broad Brush) is a winner over Polytrack. He has the bloodlines of Derby/Preakness runner-up Broad Brush, plus Classic heros Unbridled and Seattle Slew as his second and third damsires. There is little blacktype in his immediate female family, however, Taken by the Storm's third dam is a full sister to the dam of Lemon Drop Kid and she's a half to the dams of A.P. Indy and Summer Squall. Taken by the Storm breezed a bullet in his last work and won an optional claiming race over the turf in his last start.

MAC THE MAN ( El Corredor - Marchmont, by Mountain Cat) has dominated the prep races at Turfway Park by a combined 14 ½ lengths. He's a half to Charlies Quest (by Quest), who placed in a 1 ½ mile stakes race. Mac the Man has shown improving BRIS speed figures in every start. He may try to gallop them into submission, but lone speed doesn't fare well in the Spiral.

The following horses are borderline for 1 1/8 miles or may not handle Polytrack.

MY NAME IS MICHAEL (Macho Uno - Graciously Soft, by Vindication) is a stakes winner over Poly. He closed quickly to finish third in the Sam Davis stakes, his first start of the season. The colt missed almost a month of training due to illness and his pedigree is light on stamina. His damsire's daughters are just starting to bear offspring. Vindication has one other stakes winner, Sunland Derby entrant Shaken It Up. My Name Is Michael's dam is a half sister to the multiple Grade 1 router Spoken Fur and to Grade 1 turf sprinter Unbridled's Note.

CAPO BASTONE (Street Boss - Fight to Love, by Fit to Fight) won his maiden over the DelMar Pol, but the colt appears distance challenged. His second crop sire never raced beyond 7 furlongs and set a new track record for 6 furlongs. So far, his offspring have yet to win beyond 1 1/16 miles in the US. Capo Bastone's dam and half siblings won at 1 1/6 miles, but not beyond. A half sister placed at 1 1/8 miles. Fit to Fight,  Capo Bastone's damsire, won from a mile to 1 1/2 miles, including victories in the Met Mile, Suburban and Brooklyn, plus the Jerome and Stuyvesant.  No problem with stamina there....except that as a broodmare sire, his offspring appear more stamina oriented. Only four have won a stakes at 1 1/8 miles and none beyond that distance. Capo Bastone barely held on to win his three year old debut at 1 1/6 miles in a slow 1:48 at Gulfstream. He should benefit greatly from the race.

SELECTIONS

Track bias: In the last six years, three press pacers, two stalkers and one mid-pack runner won the Spiral. Frontrunners, even lone speed, haven't fared well. Only one pace setter has finished in the money in the last six editions of the Spiral.

Four colts like to be on or pressing the pace. Mack the Man, Uncaptured, Giant Finish and For Greater Glory. Uncaptured has an almost perfect race record and it would be a masterful training job by Mark Casse to ship in and win a 1 1/8 mile stakes race in his first race off of a 119 day layoff. At M/L odds of 3-1 I'll pass for the win, but the colt might finish in the money. Balance The Books is entering off of a 140 day layoff. Same goes for him. Could Capo Bastone advance over the Poly? Possible, but there are still distance considerations. Pletcher has had a Spiral entrant in almost every edition of the race. He's won twice since 2001.

There are some intriguing longshots in the race. Fear The Kitten has Spiral connections, is making his third start off of a layoff and owns a sharp bullet work two back. His speed figures appear a little slow, but that was over dirt. He should get a boost on Poly. Another horse who should show improvement with a switch to poly is Channel Isle. The colt was three wide and improve his position in the Southwest Stakes and he's a winner at 1 1/8 miles. If he's kept a little closer to the pace we could be looking at a winner. General Election is co-owner of the highest late pace speed figure. He flew eight wide yet won his last race and he should love the extra real estate.

#8 General Election
#4 Fear The Kitten
#3 Uncaptured
#2 Channel Isle – longshot pick

San Felipe: Flashback vs. Goldencents

 

Tampa Bay Derby Analysis & Selections here.

Since 2000 the San Felipe Stakes (G-2) has produced two Kentucky Derby winners, a Belmont Stakes winner and two colts who have placed in the Derby and Belmont.

This year Flashback and Goldencents headline a weak San Felipe Stakes (G-2). The 1 1/16 mile contest attracted eight colts and it is worth 50 Derby points to the winner.

 

One of two entries by trainer Bob Baffert, FLASHBACK (Tapit - Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greeley) flashed his heels to his rivals in the Robert B. Lewis (G-2) in his last start. The pretty gray colt has fired two bullet works and owns the second highest late-pace figure in the field. Read his pedigree analysis.

 

Flashback's stablemate CARVING (Any Given Saturday - In Seconds, by Giant's Causeway) gets a switch to jockey Bejarano, shortens up in distance and gets back to the dirt. Despite the changes, the son of Any Given Saturday appears to be a cut below graded stakes competition. Carving's dam did her best work over the turf and his sire has produced some turf stakes winners. Perhaps a switch to the lawn would better suit him.

 

Sham Stakes hero GOLDENCENTS proved that he wasn't a one dimensional speed ball when he sat a length behind the front runner in the Sham. The son of first crop sire Into Mischief has no difficulty stretching his speed around two turns. The O'Neil trainee couldn't be working any better. He's fired seven consecutive bullet works since December. Read his pedigree analysis.

 

In his second start, HEAR THE GHOST (Ghostzapper - Rehear, by Coronado's Quest) made up four lengths in the stretch of the San Pedro Stakes to finish second, beaten only 1 ½ lengths. By a Horse of the Year out of a daughter of a Travers Stakes winner, Hear the Ghost will appreciate the extra real estate. He's a half-brother to Spinaway (G-1) heroine Mani Bhavan (by Storm Boot) and stakes placed Datt Echo (by Stormy Atlantic). Hear the Ghost gets a jockey switch from JJ Hernandez to Cory Nakatani. He and trainer Jerry Hollendorfer are 0-5 together.

 

TIZ A MINISTER (Ministers Wild Cat - Tiz a Mistress, by Cee's Tizzy) has been competing at the state-bred level for most of his life. He has finished in the money in three open company races, but takes a big step up here. Trained by Paul Aguirre, the colt most recently won the one mile California Breeders Champion Stakes over Omega Star. Tiz a Minister should handle the extra distance of the San Felipe, but may not want to go much farther.

 

OMEGA STAR (Candy Ride (ARG) - Pride of Pegasus, by Fusaichi Pegasus) lead briefly in the stretch of the California Breeders Champion Stakes, but he couldn't hold off the challenge of the more experienced Tiz a Minster. The John Shirreffs trainee is the first foal produced by his dam. His second dam Alpride was a highweight filly in Italy and was victorious in the Yellow Ribbon Invitational and Beverly Hills Handicap, both Grade 1 events over the lawn. Omega Star has been working well and could show improvement in his third start off of a layoff.

 

SALUTOS AMIGOS (Salute the Sarge - Sarasota (ARG), by Luhuk) is a last time out maiden winner. He dueled the whole way to prevail by 1 ¾ lengths, getting 6F in a sharp 1:08.56. Salutos Amigos is bred for speed. His sire never won a stakes past 6 ½ furlongs and his dam was an Argentinian Group 1 sprinter.

 

In his debut, KOCHEES (Lion Heart - Costume Girl, by Maria's Mon) was a longshot maiden winner over the downhill turf course. Next time out, the Michael Pender trainee went four wide early but held his place, although he was beaten 6 ½ lengths by Southwest Stakes winner Super Ninety Nine. Kochees owns a ton of classic stamina. His sire was second in the Kentucky Derby, damsire Maria's Mon produced two Kentucky Derby winners and his second dam is Classic/Solid Chef-de-race Nijinsky. Kochees dam is stakes placed and his third dam was a Champion Juvenile Filly in France. Kochees adds blinkers and has worked very well for his stakes debut.

SELECTIONS

Track bias: Early/pace pressing speed accounts for 66% of the wins at Santa Anita in 1 1/16 mile races.

Salutos Amigos owns :21 early speed. Both Flashback and Goldencents are able to sit off of the pace. It's hard to separate the two colts, however, Flashback owns higher late pace figures and has the benefit of a more recent race. If one of the colts decides to speed things up and the pace gets too hot, Tiz A Minister, Hear the Ghost or Kochees could score.

#2 FLASHBACK

#3 GOLDENCENTS

#5 HEAR THE GHOST

#6 TIZ A MINISTER – longshot pick

He’s Had Enough Lookin for Luck in the Cashcall Futurity

Three years ago n the 2009 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Lookin At Lucky finished second by a desperate head after a horrendous trip behind Vale of York. He came back to win the CashCall Futurity by a measured ¾ length and the following year, the Preakness Stakes. Flash forward to this year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He's Had Enough fought Shanghai Bobby to head decision at the wire. The pretty gray colt had to steady and was shuffled back during the running of the race, but didn't let it deter him.

HE'S HAD ENOUGH will attempt to follow the path of Lookin At Lucky in this year's CashCall. He'll face off against the first four finishers of the Real Quiet Stakes, the winner of the Hollywood Prevue (G-3), the victor of the Generous Stakes (G-3) and the hero of the Nashua Stakes (G-2), plus other assorted runners.

VIOLENCE, the winner of the aforementioned Nashua, ships in for Todd Pletcher. The undefeated colt has raced only twice and soundly defeated his foes in the Remsen. The talent in Violence's female family seems to have skipped a couple of generations as there is no blacktype in the first two. Violence's third dam is Filly Triple Crown heroine and Older Female of the year, Sky Beauty.

REALLY MR GREELY the wire-to-wire winner of the Hollywood Prevue is suspect at the 1 1/16 mile distance of the CashCall. He has a sprinter's pedigree and was all out to hold on by ½ length in the 7F Prevue.

As usual, Bob Baffert stuffed the entry box with multiple contenders. His strongest chance appears to be with CARVING. Undefeated in three of four starts, Carving tired badly in the Frontrunner Stakes after contesting the lead to the half mile pole. Coming back against listed company in the Real Quiet Stakes, Carving fought three wide in the stretch to prevail by a half a length over Fury Kapcori. He gets another shot against tougher rivals but his late pace figures are poor.

FURY KAPCORI beat up on lesser rivals in Northern California before taking on listed runners at Hollywood. The game colt fought the entire way in the Real Quiet, but he appears a step below the best here.

DEN'S LEGACY has done his best running over turf and Polytrack. He was unplaced in races over dirt and Cushion Track.

DIRTY SWAGran a deceptively good race in the Real Quiet. He was wide the entire way, got into a dog fight in the stretch, and was bested by only a length. He has the pedigree to enjoy running long and should improve with time. He may not be up to this level of competition yet, but he's shown some ability.

After easily winning his maiden, TITLE CONTENDER was tossed to the wolves in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He made the brisk early pace then faded like a spray on tan to be beaten by 16 lengths. There's some quality in his distaff family and he's shown some talent.

SIMON EYES shipped in from Keeneland for trainer Wesley Ward to run an even fourth in the Real Quiet. He's been working steadily at Hollywood. His dam was in the money five of seven starts over the turf and Simon Eyes really enjoyed the Polytrack at Keeneland. He may turn out to appreciate the lawn in the long run.

Two last out maiden winners will try to pull an upset in the Cashcall. OXBOW ships in from Churchill for Wayne Lukas. Oxbow is a full brother to Hollywood Prevue hero Awesome Patriot and their dam is a full sister to two-time Horse of the Year Tiznow.

LITTLE JERRY was green early in his 1 1/16 mile debut, but once he figured it out, he came charging down the stretch to win. His dam is a half to two stakes placed runners, plus a stakes winner. Little Jerry has been working well and owns the highest late pace figure in the field. Maybe he can pick up a piece of the pie if there's a torrid early pace.

SELECTIONS

Half of the last ten winners of the CashCall won on the lead. Two pressed the pace while two others sat mid-pack before unleashing their successful rally.

Most of the Cashcall field are within a few late pace speed figure points of each other. Most are in the mid to high eighties. Not an impressive bunch for a Grade 1 race. HE'S HAD ENOUGH is the proven class of the field. He's had a light campaign, so there's a good chance that he won't regress like other Breeders' Cup runners have in subsequent races. VIOLENCE will gather plenty of interest due to his connections and unbeaten record. CARVING also has a good record, and this field is coming up light. He's proven that he can sit behind the pace and win. TITLE CONTENDER flashed good figures in his maiden. If he runs back to that form, he could beat these. LITTLE JERRY shows the most upside, winning his last with a 99 lat pace speed figure. He's giving away experience. The other recent maiden winner OXBOW, shows a developing pattern of speed figures. He's bred to go long and is showing improvement.

#1 HE'S HAD ENOUGH

#9 TITLE CONTENDER

#6 VIOLENCE

#10 LITTLE JERRY - Longshot pick

Hollywood Prevue a Baffert Brigade

The Hollywood Prevue Stakes (G-3) hasn't produced a legitimate Triple Crown contestant since 2003, when the aptly named Lion Heart out-performed his pedigree to place second in the Kentucky Derby. As to be expected, the winners of the seven furlong Prevue Stakes are sprinter/miler types.

This year, Bob Baffert will have a profitable Thanksgiving since he entered four of the five contestants. All four are coming off of maiden victories and all four have at one point beaten each other.

Reminiscent of his sire, Champion Sprinter Midnight Lute, SHAKIN IT UP (Midnight Lute - Silver Bullet Moon, by Vindication) likes to sit behind horses and unleash an explosive move in the stretch. Come to think of it, his second dam, Champion Silverbulletday used to do the same thing. Shakin It Up was beaten 1 ¼ lengths by Super Ninety Nine in his debut.

SUPER NINETY NINE (Pulpit - Exogenetic, by Unbridled's Song) has the pedigree to become a nice middle distance horse. His half sister is a stakes winner in Washington State while their dam is a ¾ sister to the ill-fated Exogenous, heroine of the Beldame and Gazelle, and runner -up in the Alabama and CCA Oaks.

Z BIG APPLE (Malibu Moon - Stormy Monday, by Storm Cat) is a full brother to the stakes winning sprinter Pinkarella. CashCall Futurity (G-1) hero Liaison is descended from the same female family. Z Big Apple beat Really Mr Greely by 3 ½ lengths in their debut.

Rounding out the Prevue field is the aforementioned REALLY MR GREELY (Horse Greeley - Mattie Camp, by Forest Camp). There isn't much blacktype in the first two generations of his female family, however, his third dam is the grand-dam of HOY/Sire Ghostzapper and his half brother City Zip.

The fifth contestant, trained by Peter Miller is the filly HEIR KITTY. She's the most experienced horse in the race and was second in the Best Pal Stakes (G-2) in her second start. The daughter of Wildcat Heir was off slow and never got involved in the Del Mar Debutante against Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies duo Executiveprivilege and Beholder.

SELECTIONS

Frontrunners have won four of the last ten editions of the Prevue Stakes, while the rest were divided evenly between pace-pressers/stalkers.

One of two scenarios can happen. Baffert won't want to cook his horses on the lead against each other, so whomever is fastest out of the gate may just slow the pace to a crawl and cruise on home.

However, HEIR KITTY will have to punch it from the one hole if she's to keep from being boxed in by the Baffert brigade. She could bring a speed duel to the two faster horses, REALLY MR. GREELEY or SUPER NINETY NINE. If the speed duel develops, SHAKIN IT UP'S late pace speed figures outclass the rest of the field. He can sit back and let the others sort it out up front and pass at will.

I'll go with the second scenario.

#2 SHAKIN IT UP

#5 SUPER NINETY NINE

#3 Z BIG APPLE

Jackpot!

GOLDENCENTS - DERBY CONTENDER OR PRETENDER?

In the nine years that the Delta Jackpot (G-3) has been contested, only one winner, Big Drama, has gone on to a career as a Grade 1 winner. Only one horse that finished in the money has made an impact on the Triple Crown races. That was 2005 Kentucky Derby runner-up Closing Argument.

Traditionally, horses that ran in the Breeders' Cup haven't fared well in the Delta Jackpot. Only Z Humor, fifth in the BC Juvenile, has won the Jackpot. Last year, Drill was unplaced in the BC Juvenile and Delta Jackpot after finishing second in the Norfolk Stakes. In 2008, Skipadate was unplaced in both the BC Juvenile Turf and Jackpot. Colts from Florida have done very well in the Delta Jackpot. Big Drama and Gourmet Dinner both won the Jackpot after winning the In Reality Stakes and last year Decisive Moment was a runner up in the In Reality and Jackpot.

This year's Delta Jackpot field is loaded with stakes winners, including Breeders' Cup Sprint champ Hightail. As in previous years, the majority of the field is loaded with sprinter/miler pedigrees that will be challenged at classic distances.

Leading the field is Breeders' Cup Sprint Champ HIGHTAIL. The Wayne Lukas trainee surprised in the Sprint with a nose victory to win his maiden race. The son of Mineshaft has the pedigree to improve with maturity. He's coming off of the highest speed figure of his career.

BERN IDENTITY won the Sanford Stakes (G-2), but like every other two year old this year, was no match for Shanghai Bobby when he tangled with that rival in the Hopeful (G-1). Bern Identity easily won the Jean Lafitte Stakes, the prep race for the Jackpot by three lengths over Mylute. Read more about Bern Identity.

MYLUTE came from off of the pace and went five wide around the turn in the Jean Lafitte Stakes, he made up some ground, but wasn't going to catch Bern Identity. Mylute descends from a precocious female family. His half brother She Digs Me won the Sapling (G-3) and Tyro. Their dam and second dam are both stakes winners.

Two colts ship in from California for trainer Doug O'Neil. KNOW MORE won his maiden in the Best Pal (G-2). He wound up in a speed duel in the Frontrunner Stakes and finished a distant second to Power Broker. Experimenting with turf for the first time in the BC Juvenile Turf, Know More was wide the whole way and wasn't in the same zip code as the winner.

Know More's stablemate GOLDENCENTS wowed in his 7 ¼ length winning debut. Then he was tossed in against the monster known as Shanghai Bobby in the Champagne Stakes. Making his first start on dirt, shipping to a new track and adding 2 ½ furlongs, Goldencents did very well to place second, five lengths behind the winner.

ITSMYLUCKYDAY is the Florida representative in the Jackpot field. He crushed them in his last two races by over nine lengths, including a paid workout in the Foolish Pleasure Stakes. Itsmyluckyday hails from the female family of Florida Derby winner Vicar.

CENTRAL BANKER beat Hightail by a head in a maiden race and then finished second in the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Stakes. Both contests were over the lawn. Trying dirt for the first time, the son of Speightstown demolished a group of Churchill allowance runners by five lengths. Central Banker's half brother Gantry is a Grade 2 wining sprinter. Their dam is a stakes winner over the lawn. She's a half sister to Arkansas Derby winner Private Emblem. This is the female family of Met Mile hero Dixie Brass.

HEAVEN'S RUNWAY showed some ability on Presque Isle Downs Tapeta when he speed dueled his way to a ½ length win in the Fitz Dixon, Jr. Memorial. Switching barns, the son of Run Away and Hide tired badly to finish over 10 lengths behind the winner in the Iroquois in his first try over dirt.

Rounding out the Jackpot field is SHOW SOME MAGIC. After winning his maiden at Saratoga, he's been totally outclassed in both the Hopeful Stakes, and most recently, he was embarrassed by over 15 lengths by Bern Identity in the Jean Lafitte Stakes.

SELECTIONS

Track bias: Since the Delta Jackpot was held over a resurfaced track in 2006, two one run closers and two pace pressers have won. One mid-pack runner and one pace setter have also won.

Bern Identity is the obvious pick. His easy win in the Jean Lafitte earned him the highest late pace speed figure of his career and the second highest in the field. The son of Bernstein worked a bullet over the Delta Downs dirt in his latest breeze for the Jackpot. His trainer Kelly Breen is 17% with next out winners.

Hightail owns the highest late pace speed figure in the field. Is the well-bred colt living up to his pedigree or was his win in the Juvie Sprint a fluke? Trainer Wayne Lukas is 3% with graded stakes winners, and 13% with last out winners.

Mylute has shown improving speed figures in every race. He has the same late kick that his sire Midnight Lute did and the extra distance could be to his benefit. His trainer Tom Amoss wins with 30% two year olds.

Goldencents is fast, but he'll have to clear the field and may get into a fight with Heaven's Runway or Itsmyluckyday. The later doesn't need the lead to win and Heaven's Runway needs to show greater improvement over dirt.

#1 BERN IDENTITY-             $3.00   $2.60  
#9 GOLDENCENTS  - $7.20  $3.60   $3.40
#6 ITSMYLUCKYDAY
#4 MYLUTE – LONGSHOT PICK    $5.40

$2  EXACTA        $26.60
$2 TRIFECTA   $175.40