Creative Cause Vs. The Rest

The seven furlong San Vicente Stakes is generally targeted by three year olds looking to advance their career in the sprinter/miler division. The last three winners of the San Vicente, The Factor, Sidney’s Candy and the filly Evita Argentina later became Grade 1 winners, The Factor and Evita Argentina as sprinters, and Sidney’s Candy as a turf miler.

This year’s edition of the San Vicente Stakes pits two Grade 1 winners against lesser competitors. The overwhelming favorite CREATIVE CAUSE (Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer) is using the San Vicente as a starting point on his Triple Crown journey. The pretty gray colt may not be fully cranked for his first time out, and he will prefer longer distances.

Creative Cause’s strongest challenge is expected to come from DRILL (Lawyer Ron - Cat Dancer, by Storm Cat). The large chestnut colt won the Del Mar Futurity by a neck over Creative Cause last September. However, Creative Cause finished in front of Drill in two subsequent meetings. Drill hasn’t hit the board in his last four races. Read his full pedigree profile here.

A lightly raced colt who could pull an upset is AMERICAN ACT (Quiet American - Revolutionary Act, by Boston Harbor). The bay colt is stretching out from a recent maiden win at 5 ½ furlongs, but has the pedigree to run two turns. American Act’s dam is a stakes winning sprinter, but otherwise, this female family is light on blacktype.

LET'S GET CRACKIN (Eddington - I'maknightschoice, by Knights Choice) makes his second start for trainer Craig Dollase and removes the blinkers. The dark bay colt ran his best race, speed figure wise, in the San Pedro over the Santa Anita dirt. Let's Get Crackin has a sprint orientated pedigree. His dam is out-performing her pedigree and is becoming a useful producer. Besides Let's Get Crackin, she bore his stakes winning half-sister R Nanee and his stakes placed half-brother Hopewell Heart. Seven of eight of Let's Get Crackin’s half siblings are winners and all have raced.

Two entrants, Smoking G and Captain Obvious, will be making their debut over dirt.

SMOKING G (Smoke Glacken - Whitewashed, by Broad Brush) won his maiden last time out over the lawn, but he has a dirt oriented pedigree. The pretty gray colt has a sprinter/miler pedigree. Smoking G’s half-sister is a Group 3 winner in Puerto Rico and their dam is a stakes placed turf sprinter. Smoking G zipped a bullet five furlongs in his breeze for the San Vicente.

CAPTAIN OBVIOUS (Choisir (AUS) - Taqqara (IRE), by Spectrum (IRE)) is cutting back in distance and trying dirt. He was a distant fourth behind Liaison over the Hollywood Cushion Track in the CashCall futurity. Captain Obvious has the pedigree of a turf router. None of his sire’s progeny have come in the money in dirt stakes races. Captain Obvious’ damsire is represented by three stakes placed dirt runners, including the graded stakes placed maiden Brother Francis. Captain Obvious adds blinkers and the Cecil barn gets 5% winners with that move.

 

SELECTIONS:

AMERICAN ACT and SMOKIN G have the speed to blaze out of the gate and keep going. Since both are recent maiden winners, it’s anybody’s guess if they have the class to hold off CREATIVE CAUSE. That one has been working well and should outclass his opponents even if he isn’t at his best. LET’S GET CRACKIN could be in the money should one of the top three falter. DRILL hasn’t progressed since his two year old season. He’s been racing non-stop since last July and appears to be a tired horse. CAPTAIN OBVIOUS could surprise over the dirt, but it’s doubtful.

CREATIVE CAUSE

SMOKIN G

AMERICAN ACT

Norfolk Stakes Re-Match

Only two colts, Chiefs Crown and Capote, have pulled off the Norfolk/Breeders’ Cup Juvenile double since 1984. In the last three years, two Norfolk victors, Street Hero and Lookin At Lucky finished in the money in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile after tough trips.

This year’s renewal of the Norfolk Stakes attracted only five entrants, but the race appears to be a re-match between Del Mar Futurity (G-1) hero Drill and the unfortunate Creative Cause, who was impeded in the stretch by Majestic City during that roughly run contest. Both colts are racing over dirt for the first time.

DRILL (Lawyer Ron - Cat Dancer, by Storm Cat) has won his last two races by a neck. His sire Lawyer Ron was a determined competitor and the dark brown colt appears to have inherited his sire’s tenacity. Drill descends from one of the strongest distaff families in the race. His dam is 1 for 12, but she’s a half-sister to Monmouth Oaks (G2) winner Magic Storm. Fourth dam Luina is a blue hen and fifth dam Banquet Bell is also a blue hen. Preakness/Belmont Champ Little Current and Derby/Belmont Champ Chateaugay plus Kings Bishop Stakes winner and new sire Hard Spun are members of this female family. Drill has taken to the Santa Anita surface and posted a bullet seven furlongs in 1:23 (1/5) in his last work.

CREATIVE CAUSE (Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer) gave notice that he is a colt to be reckoned with when he easily beat his foes in the Best Pal Stakes (G2) by 1 ¾ lengths. He was the favorite in the Del Mar Futurity, but was squeezed between horses when Majestic City bore out. Creative Cause was granted second place through disqualification of Majestic City. Creative Cause’s pedigree indicates that he should be competitive at longer distances. His sire Giant’s Causeway gets runners over all surfaces and at all distances. Creative Cause’s dam Dream of Summer was a top race mare. She won her maiden at first asking, then developed into a Grade 1 winner, taking the Apple Blossom (G1), A Gleam (G2) and several other stakes races. The pretty gray colt has trained and raced exclusively over synthetic tracks, but he has a pedigree to handle every surface.

RULER OF DUBAI (Tribal Rule - O K Topless, by Old Topper) has shown improvement in his last three starts, which includes a two win race streak against state-bred competition. Ruler of Dubai has a sprinter/miler pedigree and 1 1/16 miles may be at the top of his limit. He is the first foal for his dam who was stakes placed as a two year old. Otherwise, there is little blacktype in this distaff family. The bay gelding has been training at Santa Anita all year, but his latest works are on the slow side.

BASMATI (Borrego - Abruzzi Ridge, by Mountain Cat) is the only maiden in the group. He finished fifth, beaten only 1 ½ lengths in the Del Mar Futurity. His Brisnet speed figures have improved in almost every start and one day he’ll break through with a win, but probably not today. Basmati has a stamina-oriented pedigree and will benefit with time and distance. His sire’s only stakes wins came at 1 ¼ miles, in the Jockey Gold Cup and Pacific Classic. Basmati’s dam went 0 for 4 in her career on the track. She’s a half-sister to Molly Pitcher (G2) heroine March Magic. Basmati should improve with a switch to dirt.

SUPER CANDY (Candy Ride - Zuppa, by Woodman) finally earned a win in a maiden claimer in his tenth start when stretching out to 1 1/16 miles over the Fairplex dirt. His pedigree indicates that he’ll be a late maturing type that could prefer the lawn. Super Candy’s second through fourth dams were all stakes horses so there’s some quality in his background. Super Candy had a three furlong tune-up for the Norfolk, but it’s a big jump from maiden claimers at Fairplex to the top of the heap at Santa Anita.

LOUKIS (Haafhd - Mount Street, by Pennekamp) invades from England. The lightly raced colt won his maiden in early August sprinting over the lawn. Loukis’ pedigree indicates that he’ll be best as a turf router. His sire won the 2000 Guineas at a mile and the Champion Stakes (G1) at 1 ¼ miles. His offspring win from sprints to routes over the lawn. He’s sired five blacktype runners, but no Group/Grade 1 winners in five racing crops. Damsire Pennekamp was a Champion Juvenile in France. His daughters have produced only a handful of stakes winners, including Lilly of the Valley, heroine of the Prix de l'Opera at 1 ¼ miles over the turf. Loukis’ dam won once in five tries, but she’s a half-sister to 2000 Guineas and King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes (G-1) hero Golan. Loukis has recorded one moderate work over the Santa Anita Dirt.

SELECTIONS:

How the track is playing: In an attempt to solve the longstanding drainage issues and to slow the track down, a significant amount of sand has been added to the track surface and the amount of clay has been reduced. The race works appear to be faster, but we won’t know how the surface will play until races are actually run.

DRILL and CREATIVE CAUSE appear almost evenly matched. However, DRILL has posted a bullet work over the Santa Anita dirt and CREATIVE CAUSE gets a jockey switch. Will it matter in the end? Probably not, but these little exceptions have me leaning towards DRILL. RULER OF DUBAI jumps into graded stakes competition, but he proved himself against state-breds last time out and deserves a shot here. His speed figures have been improving steadily and he finally gets to race over his home track. BASMATI should benefit from the switch to dirt and longer race distance. His try in the Del Mar Futurity wasn’t all that bad. If one of the top two falter, Basmati could be right there. Super Candy lacks the class of the top two and Loukis could be another Boxeur Des Rues, who won his maiden in England than shipped in to finish last in the 2010 Norfolk Stakes.

#5  DRILL

#4  CREATIVE CAUSE

#3  RULER OF DUBAI