Jackpot!

GOLDENCENTS - DERBY CONTENDER OR PRETENDER?

In the nine years that the Delta Jackpot (G-3) has been contested, only one winner, Big Drama, has gone on to a career as a Grade 1 winner. Only one horse that finished in the money has made an impact on the Triple Crown races. That was 2005 Kentucky Derby runner-up Closing Argument.

Traditionally, horses that ran in the Breeders' Cup haven't fared well in the Delta Jackpot. Only Z Humor, fifth in the BC Juvenile, has won the Jackpot. Last year, Drill was unplaced in the BC Juvenile and Delta Jackpot after finishing second in the Norfolk Stakes. In 2008, Skipadate was unplaced in both the BC Juvenile Turf and Jackpot. Colts from Florida have done very well in the Delta Jackpot. Big Drama and Gourmet Dinner both won the Jackpot after winning the In Reality Stakes and last year Decisive Moment was a runner up in the In Reality and Jackpot.

This year's Delta Jackpot field is loaded with stakes winners, including Breeders' Cup Sprint champ Hightail. As in previous years, the majority of the field is loaded with sprinter/miler pedigrees that will be challenged at classic distances.

Leading the field is Breeders' Cup Sprint Champ HIGHTAIL. The Wayne Lukas trainee surprised in the Sprint with a nose victory to win his maiden race. The son of Mineshaft has the pedigree to improve with maturity. He's coming off of the highest speed figure of his career.

BERN IDENTITY won the Sanford Stakes (G-2), but like every other two year old this year, was no match for Shanghai Bobby when he tangled with that rival in the Hopeful (G-1). Bern Identity easily won the Jean Lafitte Stakes, the prep race for the Jackpot by three lengths over Mylute. Read more about Bern Identity.

MYLUTE came from off of the pace and went five wide around the turn in the Jean Lafitte Stakes, he made up some ground, but wasn't going to catch Bern Identity. Mylute descends from a precocious female family. His half brother She Digs Me won the Sapling (G-3) and Tyro. Their dam and second dam are both stakes winners.

Two colts ship in from California for trainer Doug O'Neil. KNOW MORE won his maiden in the Best Pal (G-2). He wound up in a speed duel in the Frontrunner Stakes and finished a distant second to Power Broker. Experimenting with turf for the first time in the BC Juvenile Turf, Know More was wide the whole way and wasn't in the same zip code as the winner.

Know More's stablemate GOLDENCENTS wowed in his 7 ¼ length winning debut. Then he was tossed in against the monster known as Shanghai Bobby in the Champagne Stakes. Making his first start on dirt, shipping to a new track and adding 2 ½ furlongs, Goldencents did very well to place second, five lengths behind the winner.

ITSMYLUCKYDAY is the Florida representative in the Jackpot field. He crushed them in his last two races by over nine lengths, including a paid workout in the Foolish Pleasure Stakes. Itsmyluckyday hails from the female family of Florida Derby winner Vicar.

CENTRAL BANKER beat Hightail by a head in a maiden race and then finished second in the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Stakes. Both contests were over the lawn. Trying dirt for the first time, the son of Speightstown demolished a group of Churchill allowance runners by five lengths. Central Banker's half brother Gantry is a Grade 2 wining sprinter. Their dam is a stakes winner over the lawn. She's a half sister to Arkansas Derby winner Private Emblem. This is the female family of Met Mile hero Dixie Brass.

HEAVEN'S RUNWAY showed some ability on Presque Isle Downs Tapeta when he speed dueled his way to a ½ length win in the Fitz Dixon, Jr. Memorial. Switching barns, the son of Run Away and Hide tired badly to finish over 10 lengths behind the winner in the Iroquois in his first try over dirt.

Rounding out the Jackpot field is SHOW SOME MAGIC. After winning his maiden at Saratoga, he's been totally outclassed in both the Hopeful Stakes, and most recently, he was embarrassed by over 15 lengths by Bern Identity in the Jean Lafitte Stakes.

SELECTIONS

Track bias: Since the Delta Jackpot was held over a resurfaced track in 2006, two one run closers and two pace pressers have won. One mid-pack runner and one pace setter have also won.

Bern Identity is the obvious pick. His easy win in the Jean Lafitte earned him the highest late pace speed figure of his career and the second highest in the field. The son of Bernstein worked a bullet over the Delta Downs dirt in his latest breeze for the Jackpot. His trainer Kelly Breen is 17% with next out winners.

Hightail owns the highest late pace speed figure in the field. Is the well-bred colt living up to his pedigree or was his win in the Juvie Sprint a fluke? Trainer Wayne Lukas is 3% with graded stakes winners, and 13% with last out winners.

Mylute has shown improving speed figures in every race. He has the same late kick that his sire Midnight Lute did and the extra distance could be to his benefit. His trainer Tom Amoss wins with 30% two year olds.

Goldencents is fast, but he'll have to clear the field and may get into a fight with Heaven's Runway or Itsmyluckyday. The later doesn't need the lead to win and Heaven's Runway needs to show greater improvement over dirt.

#1 BERN IDENTITY-             $3.00   $2.60  
#9 GOLDENCENTS  - $7.20  $3.60   $3.40
#6 ITSMYLUCKYDAY
#4 MYLUTE – LONGSHOT PICK    $5.40

$2  EXACTA        $26.60
$2 TRIFECTA   $175.40

Weekend Update 11-20-10

Hollywood Premier

Premier Pegasus (Fusaichi Pegasus – Squall Linda, by Summer Squall) remained un-defeated in the Hollywood Prevue and will be the likely favorite for next month’s Cash Call Futurity. The half brother to Norfolk Stakes (G-1) victor Street Hero wired the field by 1 ½ lengths, getting the seven furlongs in 1:22.78.

 

By Street Cry, Street Hero was injured and retired after his two year old season and never had a chance to prove himself at longer distances. Premier Pegasus has a more speed-oriented pedigree than his older half-brother. At stud, his sire Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus gets stakes winners up to 1 1/8 miles, however he does have six turf stakes winners at 1 ¼ miles.

Premier Pegasus receives stamina from his first three damsires, yet his dam Squall Linda was a stakes placed sprinter who won or placed in 11 of 17 starts. She is a half sister to the stakes warrior Kohen With a K, who won 10 of 59 starts as a turf sprinter. Squall Linda has inbreeding to Lavendula, who is Squall Linda’s fourth dam. Lavendula was a precocious sprinter and won three of nine starts at age two. Lavendula produced Source Sucree, Squall Linda’s third dam and a stakes winner at 11 furlongs. Source Sucree is a half sister to the stallion Ambiorix who won from a mile to 1 ½ miles. Ambiorix was bred to Source Sucree’s daughter Giff-Gaff, a ¾ sister to the brilliant chef – de – race Turn To. An interesting note - Turn- To the grandsire of Halo. Halo is the second damsire of Fusaichi Pegasus.

Summer Squall

Premier Pegasus damsire Summer Squall is an excellent broodmare sire and works well with the Mr. Prospector sire line. There are six graded stakes winners based upon the Mr. Prospector/Summer Squall bloodline cross. Of those, only Seeking The Best, a turf miler in Japan has Mr. Prospector in her second generation, similar to Premier Pegasus.

Premier Pegasus’ second damsire The Axe II raced for five years, winning 15 of 38 starts. He won from six to 13 furlongs on the turf and retired sound. Going back another generation, Premier Pegasus’ third damsire Ambiorix raced in France and won stakes races from a mile to 1 ½ miles.

Despite the stamina farther back in his pedigree, one must also take into account Premier Pegasus’ pace setting running style. He will likely be at his best up to 1 1/6 miles, but could carry his speed 1 1/8 miles if unpressured on the lead, especially if traveling over the lawn. Premier Pegasus should be able to get the distance of the 1 1/16 Cash Call Futurity, but a protracted speed duel could be his undoing.

 

Jackpot!

Gourmet Dinner - Photo: Coady

Since its inception, the victors of the Delta Jackpot have been sprinter/milers. This year isn’t an exception. Gourmet Dinner (Trippi - Potluck Dinner, Pentelicus) invaded from Florida and the In Reality Stakes runner-up was virtually ignored in the betting, going to the gate at 20-1. The bay colt tried blinkers for the first time and relaxed off of the pace. He rewarded his connections with a strong sustained move down the stretch getting 1 1/6 miles in 1:45.23.

Gourmet Dinner has speed top and bottom in his pedigree. His sire and damsire are both descended from Mr. Prospector, who in this case, is a brilliant speed influence. Additionally, inbreeding to In Reality also lends speed to Gourmet Dinner.

Trippi - Photo: Coglianese

Gourmet Dinner’s sire Trippi was a seven furlong specialist, Vosburgh (G-1) over More Than Ready, but he also outclassed his rivals in the 1 1/8 mile Flamingo Stakes. At stud, Trippi transfer speed to his offspring. He has nine stakes winners at a mile and three winners at 1 1/8 miles.

Gourmet Dinner’s damsire Pentelicus was a multiple listed stakes winner at six furlongs. His daughters produce mostly sprinter/milers, however Pentelicus is the damsire of the graded stakes warrior Awesome Gem and Mecke Daughter, a Grade 1 stakes winner in Puerto Rico. Both have won at 1 ¼ miles.

Trippi has 13 offspring out of Pentelicus mares with nine starters and six winners. Gourmet Dinner is the only stakes winner to date.

Gourmet Dinner’s dam Potluck Dinner was unplaced in her only start, but has shined in the breeding shed. All six of her foals to race are winners and are durable runners. Her first foal, I’mroyalymecke’d raced 55 times and was stakes placed. She also produced stakes winner Gaston A She’s a half sister to the sprint stakes winners Lady Gin, Sea Of Green, and her half sister Almost Aprom Queen is the dam of 2010 Oak Leaf Stakes (G-1) winner Rigoletta.

Gourmet Dinner’s mid-pack running style should enable him to get two turns, although 1 1/8 miles might be out of his scope against top stakes runners. According to his trainer Steven Standridge, Gourmet Dinner will point to the one mile Holy Bull Stakes in January at Gulfstream Park.