FRONTRUNNER STAKES - AMERICAN PHAROAH VS. THE REST

The Front Runner Stakes (formerly the Norfolk) offers a guaranteed spot in the starting gate of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile for the victor. The race is also a Kentucky Derby qualifying race, meaning the winner receives ten points towards entry into the Derby.

The 1 1/16 mile Grade 1 event is comprised of four colts who exited the Del Mar Futurity, the first and second place finishers in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf and four last out maiden winners. Let’s review the field.

TEXAS RED (Afleet Alex - Ramatuelle (CHI), by Jeune Homme) jumps up in company after winning his maiden last time out at a mile over the Del Mar poly. His speed figures have improved in every start. He’s out of a stakes placed mare who is a half to two Chilean group winners.

LORD NELSON (Pulpit - African Jade, by Seeking the Gold) cost $340K as a yearling and ran like it in his debut in July beating Del Mar Futurity runner-up Calculator by a length. Baffert kept the colt out of the Futurity and has sent the son of Pulpit out for a few months of consistent breezes. Lord Nelson’s second dam is Argentinean Champion MISS LINDA. Santa Margarita Invitational winner MISS MATCH is part of this female family. Despite his strong morning works, Lord Nelson is jumping from five furlongs to two turns and doesn’t have the benefit of a recent race.

SKY PREACHER (Sky Mesa - My Dear Lady (ARG), by Mutakddim) recorded a maiden win when switched to the lawn and was ½ a length shy of the win in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf in his last start. Both races were at a mile. Was it the distance or surface that boosted his performance? Sky Preacher is a full to the stakes winner SKY HIGH LADY, whose victories came over the turf and Polytrack. Their dam is an Argentinean Group winner over the turf at classic distances.

DADDY D T (Scat Daddy - Issues, by Awesome Again) beat Sky Preacher by ½ length in an exciting blanket finish in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf. The Sadler colt has worked well over the Santa Anita dirt, but most of Scat Daddy’s babies prefer turf and polytrack to dirt. That being said, Daddy D T is a full brother to Willard L. Proctor winner AMARISH, a winner over dirt and poly, but not turf.

RED BUTTON (Distorted Humor - Skipping Around, by Skip Trial) won his second start, which was a maiden race at Del Mar. He showed absolutely nothing in the Del Mar Futurity, finishing a zip code behind American Pharoah. Red Button is a half brother to the Grade 1 winner SUGAR SHAKE (Awesome Again) and stakes placed Explosive Heat (Touch Gold). Despite the colt’s swift works at Santa Anita, the Glatt barn is 0-23 in stakes races.

REFLECTED STAR (Eskendereya - Retool, by Gone West) was no match for Lord Nelson in their debut and faded after flashing some early speed. The son of freshman sire Eskendereya came back a month later to beat maiden claimers at Del Mar. Reflected Star should show improvement with distance and a switch to dirt but Eskendereya’s offspring will be later developing types. Reflected Star’s dam is a half to the graded stakes winners LE BERNARDIN and TAITTINGER ROSE. His third dam is BC Juvie fillies heroine TWILIGHT RIDGE.

AMERICAN PHAROAH (Pioneerof the Nile - Littleprincessemma, by Yankee Gentleman) led every step of the way to score a decisive 4 ¾ victory in the Del Mar Futurity. He’s recorded two sharp breezes over the new Santa Anita dirt for Baffert. His dam is a half to the graded stakes winners MISTY ROSETTE and STORM WOLF. His second dam EXCLUSIVE ROSETTE is a stakes winner.

CONQUEST PANTHERA (Kitten's Joy - Lastofthsummerwine, by Sky Mesa) was a $475K yearling and showed it winning his debut by 1 ½ lengths over the Del Mar poly. By turf star Kitten's Joy, Conquest Panthera has a pedigree better suited to the lawn and polytrack. His second damsire Boundary won on the dirt, but was a better sire of turf horses. This colt must be gorgeous, because there is little blacktype in his female family to warrant his huge price tag. His dam is a half sister stakes winner SONG WARRIOR and to a Russian stakes winner. Conquest Panthera’s third dam is Test heroine CLEF DARGENT.

SKYWAY (Sky Mesa - Bedside Manner, by Dr. Blum) won the Best Pal Stakes but weakened after going wide the entire way in the Del Mar Futurity. He did his best to check in fourth, beaten 13 lengths. Skyway is a half to multiple stakes winner AVA K. (Dixie Union). Skyway has a sprinter’s pedigree and may find the 1 1/6 miles at the top of his distance range. He has a good/bad race cycle and worked a last out bullet at Santa Anita

CALCULATOR (In Summation - Back to Basics, by Alphabet Soup) has been slow to put it all together. He was a surprise second in the Del Mar Futurity at long odds and it was another 8 + lengths back to the third place finisher. Calculator’s unraced dam is a half to the stakes veteran turf sprinter ATTICUS KRISTY, his full sister stakes winner FIERY DANCER and to Lexington Stakes hero DISTORTED REALITY. This is the distaff family of Preakness champ SHACKLEFORD and his Grade 1 winning sister LADY JOANNE. Calculator should appreciate two turns and a switch to dirt. He worked a bullet before his last race and also in preparation for the Frontrunner.

SELECTIONS

It’s anyone’s guess how the new track surface will play at Santa Anita. In one day of racing, speed appears to be holding, as the first races were won either on the lead or horses sitting a few lengths from the front.

American Pharoah and possibly Sky Preacher and Skyway appear to have the most speed. American Pharoah posted a triple digit speed figure in his last performance, a 19 point jump. He could simply run away from them here, but he could also regress slightly. I dismissed Calculator in the Del Mar Futurity, but this is a colt showing all signs of improvement. Sky Preacher has hit the board in three of four starts. Not sure if he’ll handle the dirt at this level of competition, but he’s worth a look. Texas Red is also showing improvement and should benefit from a surface change. If Kenty D. can hustle him out of the gate from that one post, he could hit the board. An intriguing longshot is Red Button. He bombed in the Futurity, but his speed figures aren’t that bad and he has two really good works at Santa Anita. I don’t see him winning it, but he could spoil the party at huge odds.

#7 AMERICAN PHAROAH

#10 CALCULATOR

#3 SKY PREACHER

#5 RED BUTTON – longshot pick.

Iroquois Stakes Kicks Off Derby Points

The Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes is a highlight of Churchill Downs opening day for the fall meet. This is the first race of the Kentucky Derby qualifying events, with points distributed as follows - the winner will earn 10 points, 4 for second, 2 for third and 1point for fourth.

None of the past winners of the Iroquois Stakes have had influence on the three Triple Crown races, although the 1983 third place finisher At The Threshold was also third in the Kentucky Derby. The 2012 Iroquois third place runner Overanalyze won the Arkansas Derby. Some of the previous winners, Court Vision, Harlan’s Holiday and Capt Candyman Can became Grade 1 winners.

 

This year’s 1 1/6 mile contest is headed by MR Z, runner-up in the Sanford and Saratoga Special. He faces eight other colts. Mr Z should love the extra distance. He’s a tough colt who doesn’t know the meaning of quit. He’s the one to beat. He’s bested Iroquois entrants Hashtag Bourbon and Cleveland Sound.

 

 

  HASHTAG BOURBON (Super Saver - Waltzing With Deb, by Robyn Dancer) won the Mountaineer Juvenile by over four lengths, but was beaten 3 ¾ lengths in his debut by Mr Z. The son of hot sire Super Saver should also enjoy running longer distances. Hashtag Bourbon is a half to 2002 Arkansans Derby runner-up Wild Horses (Saint Ballado) and stake placed Waltzing With Blue (Malibu Moon). The Keller Gordon trainee was forced to go wide in both starts, but draws post one in the Iroquois.

 

Both Mr Z and Hashtag have raced over the Churchill dirt. LUCKY PLAYER (Lookin At Lucky - Janetstickettocats, by Storm Cat) won his debut at Churchill and then finished fourth in the Bashford Manor Stakes. He was on the wrong end of a photo finish, beaten a neck in the Prairie Meadows Juvenile Mile in his last start.

CLEVELAND SOUND (More Than Ready - Twilight Service, by Horse Chestnut (SAF)) was all over the place in the Sanford Stakes. He was behind a wall of horses going five wide on the turn, then ducked down to the inside. He did manage to make up ground despite this and was beaten a nose for third. He adds Lasix and gets a jock switch.

 

The rest of the field appears up against it. DEKABRIST was soundly beaten by 23 lengths just last week in the Hopeful at Saratoga. HOLY FRAZIER has three starts at a mile under his girth, all over the Ellis Park lawn. He won his maiden last out, but was beaten previously by DANNY BOY. That one is a half to Arlington Classic hero Meal Penalty. Both Holy Frazier and Danny Boy have dirt-oriented pedigrees, and could hit the board.

Two others are coming off of maiden victories. BOLD CONQUEST (Curlin - One for Jim, by Distorted Humor) won the dog fight by a head in his last race at Saratoga. After finishing second at 5 ½ furlongs, the colt added a furlong and got the job done. Sprinting isn’t his game, he should love the extra distance and he’s had two strong post-race breezes.

THE GORILLA MAN (After Market - War Indian, by Indian Charlie) beat maidens by ½ length at Ellis Park last time out. In his debut which was over the lawn, he finished three lengths behind Holy Frazier after having to steady. He faces a deeper field here.

SELECTIONS

MR Z has faced :21 and change early fractions in each start, but has the ability to rate. LUCKY PLAYER and CLEVELAND SOUND may also vie near the lead. HASHTAG BOURBON draws the rail, but he’ll likely take back. If he stays out of traffic, he could come running at the end. CLEVELAND SOUND could have earned a graded stakes placing with a better ride last time out. He gets a jock switch and could play the spoiler’s role. BOLD CONQUEST had a strong debut for Assmusen. Joel Rosario rides and he could also be tough.

#2 MR Z

#5 LUCKY PLAYER

#1 HASHTAG BOURBON

#6 CLEVELAND SOUND – longshot pick

Spinaway/Hopeful Stakes Review

Two year old fillies and colts are highlighted in the closing days of the Saratoga meet. Two youngsters will gallop off as graded stakes winners and one filly will have the designation as the last winner pronounced by legendary Saratoga mainstay Tom Durkin.

The seven furlong Spinaway Stakes (G-1) has been contested since 1881. As you can imagine, the roll call of winners is a who’s who of racing. However, in the last ten years, there has been only one filly, Folklore, who has won both the Spinaway and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. The 2011 Spinaway heroine Grace Hall placed in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and was third the following year in the Kentucky Oaks. Last year’s Spinaway proved to be a very strong race. The winner Sweet Reason captured this year’s editions of the Test and Acorn Stakes. Runner-up Stopchargingmaria scored back-to-back victories in the CCA Oaks and Alabama Stakes.

 

This year’s Spinaway cast includes the Adirondack Stakes runner-up Angela Rene. After capturing her maiden, she was out finished 1 ¾ lengths by Cavorting in the Adirondack. Mentioned a few times on the Kiddie List, ANGELA RENEE (Bernardini - Pilfer, by Deputy Minister) is a full sister to multiple G-1 stakes winner and sire TO HONOR AND SERVE, and a half to stakes placed Elnaawi (by Street Sense). She’s the most accomplished filly in the field and the one to beat.

 

 

Eight other fillies will try to do just that. Three have been spotted on the Kiddie List.

BY THE MOON (Indian Charlie - By the Light, by Malibu Moon) had a professional debut. After tucking into third place early in a 5 ½ furlong sprint, she spread five wide on the turn and raced determinedly down the stretch, winning by ½ length. Her precocious dam won all four starts at two, and is a multiple stakes earner of almost $900K. By The Moon should love the extra distance in the Spinaway.

WINTER DAWN (Sky Mesa - Reboot, by Rubiano) was wide the entire way in her 6 furlong debut while pressing the pace. She prevailed by a bare head. Winter Dawn is a half to stakes winner SUMMER CRUISE (by Vicar) and to Rebuttal (Mr. Greeley) who placed in the Middle Park (Eng. Gr.1). Her dam Reboot has Rasmussen Factor inbreeding to the blue hen FOGGY NOTE through full siblings RELAUNCH (Reboot’s second damsire) and MOON GLITTER (second dam of Rubiano). Winter Dawn’s second dam LAUNCH LIGHT TEK is a G-3 winner. Winter Dawn has a sprinter’s pedigree. She may find seven furlongs beyond her scope if she has to go wide again.

CURALINA (Curlin - Whatdreamsrmadeof, by Graeme Hall) had a wild debut filled with trouble. After veering in and bumping at the start, she was pushed to keep up in the early stages. After finding her footing, Curalina traveled four wide on the turn and staggered greenly down the stretch, gaining second place from talent, not skill. Curlina is a half to multiple stakes placed Dream Spinner (by Hard Spun). Two of her three half siblings have raced. Both are winners. One placed multiple times as a 2YO. Her dam Whatdreamsrmadeof placed in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile Fillies and Grade 2 Fairgrounds Oaks. She’s a half to stakes winner LADY ECHO. Curlina will likely be best up to 1 1/16 miles.

 

 

CONDO COMMANDO (Tiz Wonderful - Yearly Report, by General Meeting) drag raced out of the starting gate and was gone, embarrassing maiden claimers by 12 lengths and stopping the clock in 1:03.82 for 5 ½ furlongs, a little more than a second off of the track record. She’s a half to True North (G-2) placed Checklist. Their dam is a multiple G-2 winner from 7 furlongs to 1 1/8 miles. The second dam FISCAL YEAR is also a stakes winner. Condo Commando is certainly the speed of the race. If they let her go, she could be hard to catch.

Another daughter of Sky Mesa, DARLING SKY (Sky Mesa - Darling Mambo, by Broad Brush) is a runaway debut winner. She beat maidens by over 7 lengths at PARX, stopping the clock in a sharp :57 for five furlongs. Her dam is a half sister to Ancient Title runner-up Irrefutable.

BONNIE K (Majestic Warrior - Royal Confection, by Candi's Gold) fought hard for a neck victory in her debut at 5 ½ furlongs. She’ll be adding first time Lasix and blinkers for the Spinaway. Bonnie K breezed two pre-race bullets for the race. Bonnie K is a half to Prairie Meadows Derby winner KARMA. He and their stakes placed dam own the only blacktype in two generations of the female family.

From the last crop of international sire Dynaformer, LADY ZUZU (Dynaformer - Indy Pick, by A.P. Indy) takes a shot sprinting over dirt after a third place finish sprinting on turf. Three of her four half siblings placed on dirt, but never won. They were all more proficient on the turf, including multiple graded stakes winner OPTIMIZER. Lady Zuzu is royally bred. Her dam won over the dirt and is a half sister to multiple G-1 winner FINDERS FEE. Her second dam FANTASTIC FIND is a Grade 1 winner and third dam BLITEY is a blue hen. Although Lady Zuzu’s sire has a few winners over the dirt, his progeny are noted turf routers. Lady Zuzu’s immediate family prefers turf and she is bred to go long on turf.

RYABINKA (Sharp Humor - West Coast Kitty, by Bertrando) is the most experienced runner in the field with four starts under her girth. After winning her maiden in her third attempt, the sprint-oriented filly finished seventh in the Cassidy Stakes at Gulfstream after having to check at the 1/16 pole. Her dam is a half to Triple Bend (G-1) winner UNFURL THE FLAG.

SELECTIONS

In the last four years, pace setters haven’t done so well in the Spinaway. The winners either pressed the pace (sat third/fourth) or were one-run types. There’s an 80% chance of rain in the late afternoon.

CURALINA is the only one with experience in the mud, although RYABINKA won her maiden on a good track. That one has a superior mud pedigree. BY THE MOON, ANGELA RENE, CONDO COMMANDO and BONNIE K also have good mud pedigrees.

Angela Rene is the class of the race, but just about any one of these fillies could step up and beat her. If CURALINA gets a good trip, she could be right there. BY THE MOON has the pedigree to stretch out and the running style to be effective. BONNIE K could surprise.

#2 ANGELA RENE

#7 CURALINA

#4 BY THE MOON

#9 BONNIE K – longshot pick

 

HOPEFUL STAKES

The seven furlong Hopeful Stakes was inaugurated in 1903. In 1973, the American Graded Stakes Committee bestowed Grade 1 status on the race. Traditionally, the Hopeful was the first Grade 1 event held for juveniles in the country. Winners of the prestigious race include the first fillies to win the Belmont Stakes and Kentucky Derby, Tanya and Regret, the legendary Man O'War, plus Triple Crown Champs Whirlaway, Secretariat and Affirmed. After Affirmed's victory, the last two horses to capture the Hopeful Stakes and a Triple Crown race were Preakness winner Summer Squall in 1989 and Preakness/Belmont hero Afleet Alex in 2004.

The Hopeful Stakes can be a good indicator of Breeders’ Cup strength. In the last three years, The Hopeful hero has either won or placed in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. In 2012, Shanghai Bobby completed the Hopeful/Juvenile double to capture the Eclipse Award as outstanding Two Year Old Colt.

Perhaps it is a sign of modern American breeding trends that the majority of the Hopeful Stakes winners since 2000 have continued their careers as sprinter – middle distance runners.

This year's Hopeful appears pretty light. I Spent It, winner of the Saratoga Special faces mostly last out maiden winners and some who still haven’t visited the winner’s circle.

I SPENT IT has raced from off of the pace in both starts. The son of Freshman Sire Super Saver conquered a strong group in the Saratoga Special by 2 ¾ lengths. His main competition may come from another son of Super Saver, COMPETITIVE EDGE. That one ran away from maidens in his debut, galloping under the wire ten lengths in front and getting six furlongs in 1:09 3/4. The third place horse from that race has come back to win. The fourth place finisher was Hopeful entrant SHARM, who finished 14 lengths behind Competitive Edge. Sharm raced 16 days ago and finished third against maidens. Both colts were mentioned on the July 22 Kiddie List.

 

The freshmen stallion Warrior’s Reward is proving to be a very good sire. His son REQUITE (Warrior's Reward - New Hope Seven, by Carson City) won a 5 ½ furlong sprint at first asking by 3/12 lengths. I’m not sure how classy he’ll turn out to be. Both half siblings are 1-13. Requite’s dam New Hope Seven is multiple stakes placed and owns the only blacktype in two generations. Requite posted the third highest late pace speed figure in the Hopeful.

The California-bred SIGNATURE CAT finished second to the Quality Road colt Blofeld just 18 days ago. Signature Cat had a five length lead early in the race, but was passed by his rival and finished second, beaten a length at five furlongs.

A pair of longshot invaders from Florida, DEKABRIST and MARATIK, appear to have little chance. Dekabrist won two starts, including a minor stakes race at Gulfstream before flopping in the Birdonthewire Stakes, beaten soundly by 11 lengths. Maratik finished fourth, beaten six lengths in a maiden race at Gulfstream.

SELECTIONS

I SPENT IT has the class edge in here. He can race on or off of the pace. If he stubs a hoof or doesn’t feel like running, COMPETITIVE EDGE could offer a challenge. Let’s toss REQUITE in there for the trifecta.

#5 I SPENT IT

#6 COMPETITIVE EDGE

#3 REQUITE

P.G. Johnson a glimpse at BC Juvie Fillies Turf

The P.G. Johnson Stakes is a chance for the turf fillies to show off while running 1 1/6 miles at Saratoga. Some quality fillies have exited this race to earn further blacktype. TAPITSFLY captured the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fililes Turf. In 2019 KATHMANBLU placed in both races and in 2012, WATSDACHANCES won the PG Johnson and was second in the Breeders’ Cup.

ANCIENT GODDESS (Iffraaj (GB) - Jezebel (GB), by Owington (GB)) raced twice in France, finishing second in her debut and winning in her second attempt, both times against the colts. The second place finisher came back to win. There isn’t much blacktype in her female family. She’s a large two-turn looking filly that should appreciate the extra distance. Trainer John Terranova breezed her an easy four furlongs over the turf course six days ago. Ancient Goddess will receive first time Lasix.

SUNDAY SONNET (Any Given Saturday - Red Piano, by Red Ransom) tries the lawn for the first time after a dominating 7 ½ length performance over a sloppy Saratoga track. Chances are good that she’ll like the turf. Sunday Sonnet is a half sister to multiple Grade 3 turf star PIANIST (More Than Ready) and two other half siblings placed over grass. Her damsire was a leading sire in England and Australia, while her second damsire was the Classic chef-de-race and top turf horse Nureyev. Trainer Kelly Breen wins with 22% first tine grass starters.

PARTISAN POLITICS (More Than Ready - Bluegrass Princess, by Dynaformer) was third in her 5 ½ furlong debut, beaten a bare neck by Rainha Da Bateria. The farther the better for this filly. Her dam won the 1 1/16 mile Valley View Stakes (G-3) and placed in two graded stakes at 1 1/8 miles. Trainer Chad Brown is a top conditioner of turf runners.

FLYING TIPAT (Tapit - Flying Marlin, by Marlin) is the only filly in the field who has raced at 1 1/16 miles over the lawn. She just missed in her debut by ¾ length after going four wide on the turn. Flying Tipat is a full sister to BC Juvenile Fillies Turf heroine TAPITSFLY, who also won the P. G. Johnson Stakes in 2009. The full sisters are conditioned by Dale Romans.

MAGNIFICENT MARGO (Congrats - Holy Miss, by Holy Bull) angled out three wide and nailed her debut by a nose at 5 ½ furlongs. She’s a half sister to the stakes winning veterans GENERAL CHARLEY and TRULY LUCKY (both by Truluck) and the stakes placed juvenile Holy Mission (Open Forum). Trainer Mike Maker gets 21% winners in non-graded stakes.

RAINHA DA BATERIA (Broken Vow - Amelia, by Dixieland Band) was mentioned on the Kiddie List in July. After settling in sixth place for most of the race, Rainha Da Bateria unleashed a furious charge to win a blanket photo finish by a head. She’s a half to MSW KINDERGARDEN KID (by Dynaformer), stakes winner ASSATEAGUE (by Stormy Atlantic) and stakes placed He's Had Enough (by Tapit). In this distaff family, the colts have proven to be the better runners. Out of three fillies, only one has hit the board and she’s a stakes winner. Four of five half siblings raced and hit the board as 2YO. The first two dams own blacktype and the second dam is a full sister to Champion 3YO Filly ALTHEA. Third dam is the blue hen, Courtly Dee. Rainha Da Bateria is trained by Graham Motion. Only 6% of his grass horses win second time out.

SLAVA (Sharp Humor - Splendorella, by Deputy Minister) is the most experienced filly in the field with three races under her girth. After winning her second race sprinting at Gulfstream, she finished a distant second in an allowance race to eventual stakes placed Naval Command. Slava is the second of her dam’s foals to race. There’s no blacktype in the first two generations of her distaff family. Her dam won on Polytrack, placed over dirt, but was unplaced in her sole turf race. Trainer Gennadi Dorochenko is 3-76 with turf runners.

Selections

The PG Johnson Stakes has been contested seven times. Three of those editions were won by pace setters. One pace presser and mid-pack runner won, while two winners unleashed their run from the back of the pack.

There appears to be very little early pace in the PG Johnson. Sunday Sonnet has won on the lead and could be the pace setter. If she slows them down enough, she could wire the field. Magnificent Margo and Slava have also raced near the pace. These young fillies are discovering their best running style, so any one of them could change tactics and be closer to the pace if it is slow.

#5 MAGNIFICANT MARGO

#1 ANCIENT GODDESS

#6 RAINHA DA BATERIA

#4 FLYING TIPAT – LONGSHOT SELECTION