DIRTY DOZEN IN CLAIBORNE BREEDERS’ FUTURITY

The 1 1/16 mile Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, this year sponsored by Claiborne, will send a dozen colts to the post, led by the undefeated stakes winner CONQUEST TSUNAMI. Not only will the son of Stormy Atlantic be checked for class, but also surface and distance limitations. The Mark Casse trainee has recorded wins over Woodbine’s polytrack and turf. He’s outclassed the Canadians by more than a combined 20 lengths, blowing to the front of every race and thundering past the finish line first. Conquest Tsunami showed a chick in his armor in his latest start, an allowance turf contest at seven furlongs. He held onto the victory by a short head. So, what about the big questions of dirt and distance? Conquest Tsunami’s full brother, the stakes placed Stormy Pacific, won from six furlongs on dirt to a mile on the Polytrack. Their stakes winning dam was proficient at 1 1/16 miles over the turf. Her dam, NICKEL CLASSIC, won the Delaware Oaks at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. Conquest Tsunami should handle 1 1/6 miles and might go to 1 1/8 miles. The accomplished youngster could be one of those rare horses who can win over any surface.

 

HASHTAG BOURBON was a troubled horse in the Iroquois Stakes. He tracked the pace on the inside, but found himself with nowhere to run through the stretch. The Kellyn Gorder trainee managed to find running room, but it was too late. He finished third, beaten only 1 ½ lengths. The son of top Freshmen Sire Super Saver is that stallion’s third most accomplished offspring, right behind Competitive Edge and I Spent It, who finished one-two in the G-1 Hopeful. Hashtag Bourbon is a half to 2002 Arkansans Derby runner-up Wild Horses and stake placed Waltzing With Blue. Their dam Waltzing With Deb is a half to the dam of multiple graded sprinter and sire SUCCESSFUL APPEAL and his half brother G-2 winner TRUE TO TRADITION. Hashtag Boubon gets a jock switch to Leparoux, who won the Alcibiades with Peace and War.

 

After beating maidens, BOLD CONQUEST stepped up against winners in the Iroquois Stakes. The Asmussen trainee made an eye-catching five-wide move around the turn and even had the lead briefly before his more experienced stable mate Lucky Player stuck his neck in front at the wire. This was a good learning experience for Bold Conquest. He should benefit from racing and really shine when the distances get longer. Bold Conquest’s sire Curlin has already sired a Classic winner when his son Palace Malice won the Belmont Stakes. Bold Conquest’s dam One for Jim is a multiple stakes miler. His second dam by Belmont hero A. P. Indy is an unraced half sister to Cigar Mile hero JERSEY TOWN. Bold Conquest’s third dam JERSEY GIRL won the Test, Acorn and Mother Goose Stakes, all Grade 1 events. Bold Conquest has a classic pedigree and should improve with maturity and distance.

 

MR. Z is back at it again. This colt has raced in more graded stakes than any of his classmates, and has yet to record a victory. His closest defeat was by a neck in the Saratoga Special. The tenacious, gritty son of Malibu Moon had troubled trips in the Sanford and Saratoga Special, yet still finished second in both races. Instead of resting up for the Champagne Stakes, Mr. Z was sent to Churchill to contest the Iroquois Stakes. In his previous stakes attempts, the Lukas trainee sat off of the pace before making his run, but switched to lead the pace in the Iroquois. That didn’t end well, as the colt tired to fifth place. Mr. Z is a half brother to the UAE stakes placed Ibn Al Nafis. Their dam Stormy Bear is a half to Champion Turf Horse CHIEF BEARHEART, Hollywood Derby (G-1) winner EXPLOSIVE RED, stakes winner RUBY RANSOM and the stakes placed runners Memorized and Sundown Serenade. Mr. Z has a 4 x 4 Rasmussen Factor inbreeding to the blue hen Gold Digger, who is Mr. Z’s fourth dam. Gold Digger is also the dam of Mr. Prospector, Malibu Moon’s damsire. Mr. Z finally gets a jock switch to Jon Court.

 

Mr. Z’s stablemate SHARM finished a non-threatening third in the Hopeful Stakes behind Competitive Edge and I Spent It. He’s still a maiden. His trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, has conditioned the winners of six Breeders’ Futurities, the last in 2004.

 

The rest of the Breeders’ Futurity is comprised mostly of last out maiden winners. Of those, KEEN ICE is the only one who has traveled past sprint distances. The son of Curlin out of an Awesome Again mare, Keen Ice is bred to relish classic distances. His dam is a half to COAL PLAY, runner up in the Haskell. His second and third dams are graded stakes winners and this is the family of Grade 1 winners SOMALI LEMONADE and VERRAZANO.

 

TOUGH CUSTOMER lived up to his name in his debut, handing Churchill maidens a 5 ½ length defeat. This is another colt who will wake up with racing and longer distances. He’s a son of Giant’s Causeway out of a stakes placed Arch mare. Tough Customer’s dam is a half sister to multiple stakes winner and sire POMEROY and a full sister bore multiple G-1 winner CONTESTED. The Wayne Catalano trainee posted a pre-race bullet breeze at Monmouth.

 

FIRESPIKE is a winner at the Futurity distance of 1 1/16 miles – over the turf. So how should he handle the dirt? Neither of his two half siblings won, but one placed on dirt. Sire Flower Alley is a graded stakes winner over dirt and Firespike’s dam won on the dirt. She’s a half to Queen’s Plate hero BASQUEIAN who won over both surfaces, so FIRESPIKE could be a multi-surface winner like his distaff family. The Michael Maker trainee posted a pre-race bullet and the colt gets a jock switch to Mike Smith.

 

It isn’t a stakes race without a Pletcher horse. CARPE DIEM dueled through swift factions to capture a 5 ½ furlong maiden at Saratoga in 1:03 4/5. The son of Giant’s Causeway is a half to J. B.’s Thunder, who won the Breeders’ Futurity in 2010. Pletcher trained last year’s Breeders’ Futurity hero WE MISS ARTIE. The trainer is 26% with horses stretching to a route.

 

IKE WALKER switches to dirt after three starts on the Poly. He was three and four wide in the Arlingon-Washington Futurity and was never a factor. The son of Bellamy Road out of a Hold That Tiger mare can likely handle the distance and dirt, but class is an issue. The Michael Stidham trainee posted an average pre-race work at Keeneland.  W V JETSETTER bobbled at the break and then was four wide in the Saratoga Special, which was his last start. The Texas-bred colt has been breezing well for conditioner George Weaver.  DEKABRIST has raced five times and his only victories came sprinting at Gulfstream this summer.

SELECTIONS

The new Keeneland dirt surface should be dry.

CONQUEST TSUNAMI is the one to catch. A few others in here, mainly TOUGH CUSTOMER and CARPE DIEM could run with him, setting it up for one of the other pace pressers or closers. Of those, HASHTAG BOURBON and BOLD CONQUEST have the best chance, although KEEN ICE could also come running from the clouds.

#7 CONQUEST TSUNAMI

#10 HASHTAG BOURBON

#6  BOLD CONQUEST

#11 KEEN ICE – longshot pick

 

CHECK OUT THE CHAMPAGNE STAKES WRITE-UP AND SELECTIONS HERE: http://www.thorofan.com/backend/News2/psNews.php?database=2&action=viewone&id=46&rnd=314.97252616100013

Spinaway/Hopeful Stakes Review

Two year old fillies and colts are highlighted in the closing days of the Saratoga meet. Two youngsters will gallop off as graded stakes winners and one filly will have the designation as the last winner pronounced by legendary Saratoga mainstay Tom Durkin.

The seven furlong Spinaway Stakes (G-1) has been contested since 1881. As you can imagine, the roll call of winners is a who’s who of racing. However, in the last ten years, there has been only one filly, Folklore, who has won both the Spinaway and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. The 2011 Spinaway heroine Grace Hall placed in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and was third the following year in the Kentucky Oaks. Last year’s Spinaway proved to be a very strong race. The winner Sweet Reason captured this year’s editions of the Test and Acorn Stakes. Runner-up Stopchargingmaria scored back-to-back victories in the CCA Oaks and Alabama Stakes.

 

This year’s Spinaway cast includes the Adirondack Stakes runner-up Angela Rene. After capturing her maiden, she was out finished 1 ¾ lengths by Cavorting in the Adirondack. Mentioned a few times on the Kiddie List, ANGELA RENEE (Bernardini - Pilfer, by Deputy Minister) is a full sister to multiple G-1 stakes winner and sire TO HONOR AND SERVE, and a half to stakes placed Elnaawi (by Street Sense). She’s the most accomplished filly in the field and the one to beat.

 

 

Eight other fillies will try to do just that. Three have been spotted on the Kiddie List.

BY THE MOON (Indian Charlie - By the Light, by Malibu Moon) had a professional debut. After tucking into third place early in a 5 ½ furlong sprint, she spread five wide on the turn and raced determinedly down the stretch, winning by ½ length. Her precocious dam won all four starts at two, and is a multiple stakes earner of almost $900K. By The Moon should love the extra distance in the Spinaway.

WINTER DAWN (Sky Mesa - Reboot, by Rubiano) was wide the entire way in her 6 furlong debut while pressing the pace. She prevailed by a bare head. Winter Dawn is a half to stakes winner SUMMER CRUISE (by Vicar) and to Rebuttal (Mr. Greeley) who placed in the Middle Park (Eng. Gr.1). Her dam Reboot has Rasmussen Factor inbreeding to the blue hen FOGGY NOTE through full siblings RELAUNCH (Reboot’s second damsire) and MOON GLITTER (second dam of Rubiano). Winter Dawn’s second dam LAUNCH LIGHT TEK is a G-3 winner. Winter Dawn has a sprinter’s pedigree. She may find seven furlongs beyond her scope if she has to go wide again.

CURALINA (Curlin - Whatdreamsrmadeof, by Graeme Hall) had a wild debut filled with trouble. After veering in and bumping at the start, she was pushed to keep up in the early stages. After finding her footing, Curalina traveled four wide on the turn and staggered greenly down the stretch, gaining second place from talent, not skill. Curlina is a half to multiple stakes placed Dream Spinner (by Hard Spun). Two of her three half siblings have raced. Both are winners. One placed multiple times as a 2YO. Her dam Whatdreamsrmadeof placed in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile Fillies and Grade 2 Fairgrounds Oaks. She’s a half to stakes winner LADY ECHO. Curlina will likely be best up to 1 1/16 miles.

 

 

CONDO COMMANDO (Tiz Wonderful - Yearly Report, by General Meeting) drag raced out of the starting gate and was gone, embarrassing maiden claimers by 12 lengths and stopping the clock in 1:03.82 for 5 ½ furlongs, a little more than a second off of the track record. She’s a half to True North (G-2) placed Checklist. Their dam is a multiple G-2 winner from 7 furlongs to 1 1/8 miles. The second dam FISCAL YEAR is also a stakes winner. Condo Commando is certainly the speed of the race. If they let her go, she could be hard to catch.

Another daughter of Sky Mesa, DARLING SKY (Sky Mesa - Darling Mambo, by Broad Brush) is a runaway debut winner. She beat maidens by over 7 lengths at PARX, stopping the clock in a sharp :57 for five furlongs. Her dam is a half sister to Ancient Title runner-up Irrefutable.

BONNIE K (Majestic Warrior - Royal Confection, by Candi's Gold) fought hard for a neck victory in her debut at 5 ½ furlongs. She’ll be adding first time Lasix and blinkers for the Spinaway. Bonnie K breezed two pre-race bullets for the race. Bonnie K is a half to Prairie Meadows Derby winner KARMA. He and their stakes placed dam own the only blacktype in two generations of the female family.

From the last crop of international sire Dynaformer, LADY ZUZU (Dynaformer - Indy Pick, by A.P. Indy) takes a shot sprinting over dirt after a third place finish sprinting on turf. Three of her four half siblings placed on dirt, but never won. They were all more proficient on the turf, including multiple graded stakes winner OPTIMIZER. Lady Zuzu is royally bred. Her dam won over the dirt and is a half sister to multiple G-1 winner FINDERS FEE. Her second dam FANTASTIC FIND is a Grade 1 winner and third dam BLITEY is a blue hen. Although Lady Zuzu’s sire has a few winners over the dirt, his progeny are noted turf routers. Lady Zuzu’s immediate family prefers turf and she is bred to go long on turf.

RYABINKA (Sharp Humor - West Coast Kitty, by Bertrando) is the most experienced runner in the field with four starts under her girth. After winning her maiden in her third attempt, the sprint-oriented filly finished seventh in the Cassidy Stakes at Gulfstream after having to check at the 1/16 pole. Her dam is a half to Triple Bend (G-1) winner UNFURL THE FLAG.

SELECTIONS

In the last four years, pace setters haven’t done so well in the Spinaway. The winners either pressed the pace (sat third/fourth) or were one-run types. There’s an 80% chance of rain in the late afternoon.

CURALINA is the only one with experience in the mud, although RYABINKA won her maiden on a good track. That one has a superior mud pedigree. BY THE MOON, ANGELA RENE, CONDO COMMANDO and BONNIE K also have good mud pedigrees.

Angela Rene is the class of the race, but just about any one of these fillies could step up and beat her. If CURALINA gets a good trip, she could be right there. BY THE MOON has the pedigree to stretch out and the running style to be effective. BONNIE K could surprise.

#2 ANGELA RENE

#7 CURALINA

#4 BY THE MOON

#9 BONNIE K – longshot pick

 

HOPEFUL STAKES

The seven furlong Hopeful Stakes was inaugurated in 1903. In 1973, the American Graded Stakes Committee bestowed Grade 1 status on the race. Traditionally, the Hopeful was the first Grade 1 event held for juveniles in the country. Winners of the prestigious race include the first fillies to win the Belmont Stakes and Kentucky Derby, Tanya and Regret, the legendary Man O'War, plus Triple Crown Champs Whirlaway, Secretariat and Affirmed. After Affirmed's victory, the last two horses to capture the Hopeful Stakes and a Triple Crown race were Preakness winner Summer Squall in 1989 and Preakness/Belmont hero Afleet Alex in 2004.

The Hopeful Stakes can be a good indicator of Breeders’ Cup strength. In the last three years, The Hopeful hero has either won or placed in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. In 2012, Shanghai Bobby completed the Hopeful/Juvenile double to capture the Eclipse Award as outstanding Two Year Old Colt.

Perhaps it is a sign of modern American breeding trends that the majority of the Hopeful Stakes winners since 2000 have continued their careers as sprinter – middle distance runners.

This year's Hopeful appears pretty light. I Spent It, winner of the Saratoga Special faces mostly last out maiden winners and some who still haven’t visited the winner’s circle.

I SPENT IT has raced from off of the pace in both starts. The son of Freshman Sire Super Saver conquered a strong group in the Saratoga Special by 2 ¾ lengths. His main competition may come from another son of Super Saver, COMPETITIVE EDGE. That one ran away from maidens in his debut, galloping under the wire ten lengths in front and getting six furlongs in 1:09 3/4. The third place horse from that race has come back to win. The fourth place finisher was Hopeful entrant SHARM, who finished 14 lengths behind Competitive Edge. Sharm raced 16 days ago and finished third against maidens. Both colts were mentioned on the July 22 Kiddie List.

 

The freshmen stallion Warrior’s Reward is proving to be a very good sire. His son REQUITE (Warrior's Reward - New Hope Seven, by Carson City) won a 5 ½ furlong sprint at first asking by 3/12 lengths. I’m not sure how classy he’ll turn out to be. Both half siblings are 1-13. Requite’s dam New Hope Seven is multiple stakes placed and owns the only blacktype in two generations. Requite posted the third highest late pace speed figure in the Hopeful.

The California-bred SIGNATURE CAT finished second to the Quality Road colt Blofeld just 18 days ago. Signature Cat had a five length lead early in the race, but was passed by his rival and finished second, beaten a length at five furlongs.

A pair of longshot invaders from Florida, DEKABRIST and MARATIK, appear to have little chance. Dekabrist won two starts, including a minor stakes race at Gulfstream before flopping in the Birdonthewire Stakes, beaten soundly by 11 lengths. Maratik finished fourth, beaten six lengths in a maiden race at Gulfstream.

SELECTIONS

I SPENT IT has the class edge in here. He can race on or off of the pace. If he stubs a hoof or doesn’t feel like running, COMPETITIVE EDGE could offer a challenge. Let’s toss REQUITE in there for the trifecta.

#5 I SPENT IT

#6 COMPETITIVE EDGE

#3 REQUITE

HANDICAPPING THE WITHERS STAKES

Check out the Sam F. Davis race selections here. Two Florida Fillies go head and head handicapping the Hutcheson Stakes.

Last year’s Withers Stakes champ Revolutionary captured the Louisiana Derby before a third place finish in the Kentucky Derby. 2012 didn’t see a Withers-placed runner make an impact on the Triple Crown, however, Alpha did win the Travers. This year’s Withers Stakes is included in the Kentucky Derby series with 10-4-2-1 points awarded to the first four finishers. Since there are only six horses in the Withers this year, most of the field will receive points.

Four of the six runners are coming off of victories. Two, Uncle Sigh and Samraat, had blow out wins in NY State Bred races. Samraat is the East Coast version of Shared Belief. He’s undefeated and has a combined 25 + lengths on former rivals. Let’s take a closer look at the field:

Uncle Sigh (Indian Charlie - Cradlesong, by Pine Bluff) loped around the Aqueduct track to win his maiden going a mile. His pedigree indicates that he’ll be strongest up to 1 1/8 miles. There’s some quality in his family, as he’s a half to stakes winners Slew by Slew and Percussion. Uncle Sigh owns the second highest late pace speed figure, but will be taking a huge class jump from state—bred maidens into graded stakes company in just his third start. The Contessa trainee has a brisk work pattern and should be on his toes here. Contender.

Street Gent (Street Sense - Gen Corp Purposes, by Beau Genius) is cutting back in distance after winning his maiden at 1 1/8 miles. He’s a half to multiple stakes winners Beau Dare, Turfiste and the stakes placed runner Victoire Bataille. Street Gent’s late pace figures are nothing to email about, although trainer Leah Gyarmati hits with 29% of graded stakes winners this year and overall 57%, so she knows where to spot them. Possible.

Scotland (Horse Greeley - Varus, by Vicar) has finished in the money in all three starts, but is still a maiden. Scotland lost ground in the Jerome and finished 4 ½ lengths behind the winner.. His pedigree indicates that he’ll likely be best up to 1 1/16 miles. His Brisnet speed figures have improved in each race and he has a solid breeze pattern. Pass

Classic Giacnroll (Giacomo - Classic Woman, by Storm Bird) went wide throughout the Jerome Stakes and finished second, beaten two lengths. He’s gone wide in his last four races and with the jock switch to Velasquez, may get a better trip. Classic Giacnroll has a classy distaff line. Clark hero Premium Tap and Arlington Million winner Tight Spot are descended from this family. Possible.

Samraat (Noble Causeway - Little Indian Girl, by Indian Charlie) has been unchallenged in three state bred races and now takes on graded stakes company. His race fractions aren’t particularly brilliant, so we’re left to wonder exactly what he’s beaten, considering none of the horses in his wake have come back to win. His speed figures have improved in every start and Samraat has been training well at Palm Meadows. He’s a half to the stakes placed runners Original Fate, Kaddish, and Screen Legend. Contender.

Honorable Judge (Afleet Alex - Lucky Again, by Wild Again) has won two of three starts and prefers to sit off the pace. He’s a full brother to Breeders' Cup Marathon hero Afleet Again and the stakes placed Oh So Bella, plus a half to stakes placed Luckifee. Honorable Judge late pace speed figure in his last race wasn’t bad and his works are average. He could come running at the end and get a piece of it. Contender.

Track bias: The track is fair to front runners, pace pressers and late pace runners. Horses from the outside posts appear to win more often than those inside. It will be cloudy, but the track should be fast.

This is a poor betting race and one could make a case for most of the contenders.

SELECTIONS

#5 Samraat (7-5)

#1 Uncle Sigh (9-5)

#6 Honorable Judge (15-1)