Formidable Field In Florida

In the last ten years, the Florida Derby has showcased the talents of Monarchos, Barbaro and Big Brown. All three were brilliant winners weeks later in Kentucky. Empire Maker and Ice Box were successful in Florida but were second-best in Kentucky, while the swift Quality Road discovered he was superior at 1 1/8 miles and not one step farther.
This year’s Florida Derby field appears to be the strongest in years, and it would be no surprise if one of the contestants becomes a Kentucky Derby hero.
The dominating conqueror of the Fountain of Youth, SOLDAT (War Front – Le Relais, by Coronados Quest) clearly loves the Gulfstream surface and is the best representative of his second crop sire. Soldat has a speed over stamina pedigree with a mix of dirt and turf attributes. His second crop sire, a son of Danzig, is a Grade 2 winning dirt sprinter while damsire Coronado’s Quest won the Travers Stakes. Second damsire Apalachee was a Champion sprinting juvenile in Europe. Soldat is the deserving favorite in the Florida Derby.
A surprising and distant third against Soldat in the Fountain Of Youth, TO HONOR AND SERVE (Bernardini – Pilfer, by Deputy Minister clearly needed the race. He has a pedigree well-suited to the Classic distances and the Bill Mott Trainee has been working spectacularly over the deep Payson Park surface and should be stronger the second time around.
Uncle Mo’s stable mate STAY THIRSTY (Bernardini – Marozina, by Storm Bird) strode out of his famous stable mate Uncle Mo’s shadow and easily beat a second-rate group in the Gotham Stakes (G-3). Stay Thirsty has a stamina oriented pedigree perfect for the Classics. He is a half brother to freshman sire Andromeda’s Hero and his precocious full brother Superfly. Stay Thirsty adds blinkers to keep him focused and we should get a good indication of how good he is in the Florida Derby.
The Holy Bull (G-3) winner DIALED IN (Mineshaft - Miss Doolittle, by Storm Cat) regressed slightly in his Florida Derby prep race, but he still ran a strong race over a surface that plays against his running style. He’s a half-brother to Astoria Stakes (5F) winner Broadway Gold and turf stakes placed runner Mambo Meister. His dam was third in the Schuylerville Stakes (G-3) and Eliza, the second dam won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and was second in the Kentucky Oaks. Dialed In should get a strong pace to set up his stretch run.
SHACKLEFORD (Forestry – Oatsee, by Unbridled) Like Soldat, Shackleford had no response in the Fountain Of Youth after a good win previously against allowance company. Shackleford has a speed over stamina pedigree. He’s a half-brother to Alabama Stakes (G-1) heroine Lady Joanne and Grade 2 winner Baghdaria. His dam and second dam are both stakes winners. His sire Forestry has produced two dirt stakes winners at 1 1/8 miles, Discreet Cat and Etched. Shackleford and Etched have similar breeding as both have Unbridled sire line dams.
BOWMAN'S CAUSEWAY (Giant’s Causeway – Victory Encounter, by Victory Speech) was thrown into graded stakes competition only two weeks after winning his maiden. The Patrick Biancone trainee has a stamina oriented pedigree and his dam won four stakes races, including the Vanity Handicap (G-1) at 1 1/8 miles. Bowman’s Causeway raced evenly against speedier rivals in his one mile prep for the Florida Derby. Like Dialed In, bowman’s Causeway is hindered by a speed favoring track, but if he wants to buy his ticket to Kentucky, he must overcome the bias and win here.
FLASHPOINT (Pomeroy - Two Punch Lil, by Two Punch) made short work of a nice group of sprinters in the Hutchinson Stakes (G-2) and will try to stretch his front-running speed an extra two furlongs. Flashpoint has a sprinter/miler pedigree. So far, his second crop sire’s offspring have failed to win at 1 1/8 miles. Pomeroy’s best representative on the track is El Camino Real Derby winner Positive Response. Flashpoint’s dam won half of her eight starts, including a stakes race. She is inbred to the blue hen Raise You through her third sire Raise A Native and his full sister, Toast Of The Town, who is Two Punch’s third dam. The pretty gray Flashpoint will has the difficult task of breaking on the far outside.
A newcomer to the Derby trail, ARCH TRAVELER (Sky Mesa – Mettle, by Silver Deputy) has won his last two races, including a win at 1 1/8 miles. Five of his sire’s progeny have been successful in stakes at 1 1/8 miles; all have stamina-oriented female families. Silver Deputy is the damsire of four winners at 1 1/8 miles. Three out of four of Arch Traveler’s siblings of racing age are winners. His dam won three of eight starts sprinting over dirt and she’s a half-sister to a couple of Japanese stakes winners. Arch Traveler won’t get easy fractions in this race and may become a pace casualty.
SELECTIONS:
How the track is playing: 67% pace setters/pressers have won this meet, with 38% going wire-to-wire. Outside posts are at a disadvantage with the first turn just yards from the starting gate. Weather should be beautiful as always and the track should be fast.
This year’s Florida Derby has a plethora of speed and there will be a likely traffic jam around the first turn and down the backstretch. The horses nearest the rail should have the best trip. SOLDAT and TO HONOR AND SERVE can handle a quick pace and still be strong in the final furlong. If DIALED IN doesn’t have to go too wide around the final turn, he’ll mow down the tiring field and should get a piece of it. STAY THIRSTY will get a real class test and it will be no surprise to see his nose on the wire first. If BOWMAN’S CAUSEWAY can get a decent trip, he could round out the exotics at long odds. SHACKLEFORD and ARCH TRAVELER have wins at 1 1/8 miles against lesser company. Their pedigrees indicate this is as far as they’ll want to run and their forward running styles could have them going the wrong way when the real running begins. FLASHPOINT is a sprinter and will be looking for an Oxygen tank after a mile.
#2 TO HONOR AND SERVE
#1 SOLDAT
#7 DIALED IN
#6 STAY THIRSTY
#4 BOWMAN’S CAUSEWAY – longshot pick

Brethren vs. the Rest in the Tampa Bay Derby

With Uncle Mo scheduled to run in Gulfstream Park’s Timely Writer Stakes, the Tampa Bay Derby (G-2) is a showdown between the big hoss, Brethren vs. the foes he handily defeated in the Sam F. Davis Stakes plus the usual assortment of maiden/allowance winners.

BRETHREN (Distorted Humor – Supercharger, by A.P. Indy) galloped off with the Sam F. Davis stakes trophy by four lengths in his season debut.  He’s a half brother to last year’s Kentucky Derby winner and is undefeated in four starts. He hasn’t beaten high quality foes, as horses that have finished behind him have failed to live up to expectations.

After bobbling at the break, TOO EXPERIENCE (Drewman – Lake Victoria, by Meadowlake) found himself six lengths off of the pace in the Sam F. Davis, but closed to be best of the rest. He is the first stakes winner for his distaff family in two generations. Too Experience has been training strongly over the Tampa surface and owns a recent bullet breeze.

WATCH ME GO (West Acre - Sabbath Song, by Deputy Minister) was one-paced in the Sam F. Davis Stakes but grabbed a check for his third place finish, five lengths behind Brethren. Watch Me Go is a half-brother to a stakes placed turf sprinter. His unraced dam is a half-sister to two multiple stakes winners and the second dam is also a stakes winner. Watch Me Go shows a live work pattern and the O’Connell barn is hitting with 20% stakes runners.

BEAMER (Vindication - Untarnished, by Unbridled) was off slowest of all in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, but made up ground in the stretch to finish in fourth, a half-length behind Watch Me Go. Beamer’s dam is an unraced full sister to the Champion Filly Banshee Breeze and his second damsire Known Fact was a Champion Juvenile in Europe. Beamer races for the same connections as Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, who won the Tampa Bay Derby over this track.

ECONOMIC SUMMIT (Malibu Moon – Summit Lite, by Mt. Livermore) has worked strongly for his season debut. He was outclassed in last year’s Remsen Stakes and has plenty of room to improve. Economic Summit has a stamina over speed pedigree. His dam is a half sister to the Grade 3 turf winner Strategic Partner. His second dam, Very Special Lite, set a new course record for a mile in 1:33.60 at Keeneland. The graded stakes winning miler Two Step Salsa was produced by this distaff family.

 

Another son of Malibu Moon hoping to earn a check in the Tampa Bay Derby is MOONHANGER (Malibu Moon – Important Daisy, by Ghadeer). After winning his maiden by an embarrassing 11 lengths over the sloppy Tampa Bay track, Moonhanger switched to turf and just missed by ¾ a length after setting the entire pace in an optional claiming event a few weeks ago. The versatile colt has a blend of stamina and speed in his pedigree. His sire, a son of A.P. Indy, has produced the Graded Stakes routers Devil May Care, Life At Ten and Funny Moon. Moonhanger’s damsire was a prominent producer in Brazil, while his second damsire Spend A Buck won the Kentucky Derby. Moonhanger is a half brother to three Brazilian Group stakes winners.

Making his first start off of the claim, CRIMSON KNIGHT (Leroidesanimaux – For My Pleasure, by Numerous) gets another shot to prove that he can successfully handle the dirt. He was victorious last time out when switched to turf and has a miler pedigree that strongly hints that he’ll prefer the lawn. His sire is a Champion Turf miler and his miler damsire is a grandson of Nijinsky. Crimson Knight’s dam was a very durable runner. She made 47 starts, wining only four times, but placing in 12 tries. His second dam placed in a minor stakes event, and that’s it for recent blacktype in his distaff family. The Bennett barn is 27% off of the claim, but may be a bit ambitious here.

FREE ENTRY (Tale Of The Cat – Preachtothepulpit, by Pulpit) takes the next logical step up after earning victories in a maiden and allowance race. Free Entry is a product of the famed Claiborne Farm bloodlines. His sire and damsire are closely related, as their dams are half sisters. This gives Free Entry close inbreeding to the blue hen Narrate, the mother of Tale Of The Cat’s dam Yarn and Pulpit’s dam Preach. Free Entry is a half brother to the stakes winning sprinter Thunder’s Dove. His second dam Luxuriously is a half sister to the second crop sire With Distinction and Grade 1 placed Resort, dam of Peter Pan winner Sightseeing. The Chad Brown stable gets 21% winners when they ship.

We mentioned STRIDING AHEAD (Empire Maker - Helstra, by Nureyev) in the February watch list after his awesome performance at Tampa last month. His pedigree says the longer the better and there are plenty of Grade 1 winners and Champions in this colt’s family. His sire won the Belmont stakes and was building his reputation as a stamina-oriented sire but was sent to stud in Japan at the end of 2010. Striding Ahead is a half-brother to Stern Opinion, a French Group 1 sprinter and Dr. Arbatach, a Champion Sprinter in Puerto Rico. Their dam is a half-sister to the good sire Stormy Atlantic and stakes placed Devine Dixie, who is the dam of Grade 1 stakes winner and second-crop sire Bandini. Striding Ahead has worked sensationally after his impressive maiden score and the Mott barn is 18% with horses making their second start off of a layoff.

SELECTIONS:

How the track is playing: Overall, pace setters and pressers have the advantage, but during the last week, the track has played slightly to the traits of late pace and closers. Perfect Florida weather guarantees a fast track.

BRETHREN has the experience and talent to outclass this field. His works are good and he should improve in his second race off a layoff. Should something untoward happen, FREE ENTRY could gallop home with all of the marbles. He’s never run a bad race and there’s some speed in here to set up for his late closing run. BEEMER had an excuse in the Sam F. Davis. He broke last of all and managed to gain some ground in the stretch. A better break could earn him some cash here. STRIDING AHEAD won his race in comparable time to BRETHREN’S Sam Davis race. He has a fantastic pedigree and terrific works. His conservative trainer doesn’t often toss a recent maiden winner into graded stakes company so keep an eye on this one. MOONHANGER just missed at this distance last time out and the Alexander barn is 33% with the turf to dirt angle. TOO EXPERIENCE should be fit in his second try off the layoff, but the Passley barn is 0 for 22 with that angle. ECONOMIC SUMMIT is working well, but the others have the advantage of race fitness.

#10 BRETHREN 

#7 FREE ENTRY
#5 TOO EXPERIENCE
#1 STRIDING AHEAD - long shot pick

Gotham Stakes Trend

A trend is starting to appear in New York. A Gotham winner has also been victorious in a Classic race every eleven years.

Eleven years ago, Red Bullet won the Gotham and went on to win a Classic Race, when he spoiled Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus’ Triple Crown bid in the Preakness. Eleven years earlier, Easy Goer pulled a Gotham/Belmont Stakes double, getting his revenge on the Derby/Preakness hero Sunday Silence. Perhaps we’ll see a Gotham/Classic winner in Saturday’s field.

All eyes are on Uncle Mo’s workmate STAY THIRSTY (Bernardini – Marozina, by Storm Bird). The Grade 1 Stakes placed colt has been holding his own in the mornings and should be fit for his three year old debut. Stay Thirsty has a stamina oriented pedigree perfect for the Classics. He is a half brother to freshman sire Andromeda’s Hero and his precocious full brother Superfly. The Pletcher barn is winning stakes races at a 19% clip this year.

Whirlaway hero TOBY'S CORNER (Bellamy Road – Brandons Ride, by Mister Frisky) is riding a three race win streak and is the logical second choice. Toby is already a winner over the Aqueduct surface at 1 1/6 miles. His second crop sire is getting winners up to 1 mile 70 yards over dirt and Polytrack. Damsire won the Santa Anita Derby and was third in the Preakness. 1 Toby's Corner is a half-brother to stakes winner Bushmills Best, but that’s about it for stakes horses in the first three generations. The Motion barn is successful with 19% of last out winners.

PREACHINTOTHEDEVIL (Pulpit – Acey Deucey, by Abaginone) was a distant third behind Toby’s Corner in the Whirlaway. He’s had a couple of really good breezes and should be ready to go. Preachintothedevil’s dam was a multiple graded stakes winning sprinter/miler. His damsire, a son of Devil’s Bag, won two Grade 3 sprint races. Preachintothedevil’s BRISNET speed figures have improved in every race. The Contessa barn grabs 12% of graded stakes races.

Grace 2 placed NACHO SAINT (Yes It’s True – Flashy, by Wild Again) changed his running style and finally won his maiden after going winless in four attempts last year. To be fair, he’s been in the money in all of his starts, but he’s been chasing pacesetters over speed-favoring tracks. Nacho Saint’s dam is a half-sister to Kings Lyn, dam of Sara Louise and this year’s Debutante Stakes winner Just Louise. The Kelly Breen stable has only 11% stakes winners, but gets 14% winners in their second start off of a layoff.

Three colts who have won their last two attempts will step into graded stakes competition to see if they can make headway on the Derby trail.

NORMAN ASBJORNSON (Real Quiet – Merryland Missy, by Citidancer) has won his last two races by over seven lengths. He gets plenty of stamina from his sire and his dam was a stakes winning sprinter. His second damsire Smarten won at 1 ¼ miles and placed going 1 ½ miles. Norman Asbjornson’s BRISNET speed figures have jumped in his last two races, indicating that he’s starting to mature. The Christopher Grove stable wins 19% of stakes races, which is pretty good for a moderate-sized stable.

STARSHIP CAESAR (Repent – Starship Honor, by Honor Grades) tests deep waters today. After winning a maiden claimer at Calder, He took an allowance race for new owners at Gulfstream. Starship Caesar has a middle-distance pedigree. His sire Repent was a middle distance horse, winning at 1 1/16 miles and placing second in the Travers Stakes. Starship Caesar’s dam was unplaced in five starts and there’s no blacktype in his first three generations. His damsire is a half brother to S.P. Indy and Summer Squall.

Trainer Steve Asmussen snatched DAWLY (Awesome Again – Usrah, by Tiznow) from a maiden claiming race last December. Dawly has a pedigree loaded with stamina. He is the first foal for his unraced dam who is a half sister to the Grade 2 winner Doubles Partner. Further, his second dam is a full sister to Champion Serena’s Song. The gelding should improve with distance and could be one to watch.

THE FED EASED (Montbrook – Valid Invitation, by Take Me Out) dominated maidens in his second try and now faces stakes competition. The Fed Eased has a miler pedigree. He’s a half brother to stakes placed Sweet Enticement and his unraced dam is a half sister to stakes winner Rocky River. The Fed Eased’s breezes are steady and the Violette barn is winning with 20% of their charges this year.

The inappropriately named ISN'T HE PERFECT won against maiden claimers last November and hasn’t been close racing against optional claimer and allowance company. He has the pedigree to do best at two turns and also has an excellent mud pedigree. His works are slow and the Shivmangai barn has a 7% win rate this year.

SELECTIONS:

How the track is playing: 40% of the winners have wired the field in route races. Alternatively 40% of winners win as mid-pack runners.

STAY THIRSTY has the pedigree to do well in Classic races. He ran against some of the best last year and has the class edge. Is he cranked for his return to the races? He’s been working well and will be the chalk. TOBY’S CORNER’S has improved in every race and has the benefit of a recent race. Despite winning his maiden last time out, NACHO SAINT kept classy company last year and is graded stakes placed. He won’t get away with a :24 first quarter, but he’s working well and could surprise if the top two falter. PREACHINTOTHEDEVIL was no match for TOBY’S CORNER last time out. The colt’s running style works against him, but he’s one to use in the exotics. DAWLY has the pedigree to relish longer distances and has a recent race under his girth. NORMAN ASBJORNSON is ready to take the next step and he could grab part of the money.

#5 STAY THIRSTY
#4 TOBY’S CORNER
#2 NACHO SAINT
#9 DAWLY - longshot selection