Can Uncle Mo Break The Jinx?

With less than a month until the Kentucky Derby, the prep races are in full swing across the nation. Florida and Louisiana have completed their series for three year olds, while Santa Anita and New York conclude their major preps this weekend. Even Illinois gets into the act with their Derby. Arkansas will have a full field in their Derby next weekend and Keeneland will conduct their premiere event, the Blue Grass Stakes (G-1). The last chance for Derby earnings will be the Lexington Stakes, scheduled for April 23, just two weeks before the big dance.


Uncle Mo

   Returning to this weekends graded stakes, all eyes will be on UNCLE MO in the Wood Memorial. On paper, he appears to dominate a very weak field of allowance and listed stakes competitors. We’ve seen other contests where the overwhelming favorite wasn’t supposed to loose, and there is always the slim possibility of that here, otherwise, the NYRA would just hand Uncle Mo’s owner Mike Repole a check and the trophy while the horses sit in the barn. Uncle Mo will try to remove the Wood Memorial jinx. The last two winners were injured before running in the Kentucky Derby, and since 1977, only two horses have pulled off the Wood Memorial/Kentucky Derby double, Pleasant Colony and Fusaichi Pegasus.
So, barring an unfortunate incident to Uncle Mo in the Wood Memorial, who is the best of the rest?
Two horses, PREACHINTOTHEDEVIL and SON OF POSSE had their tails handed to them in the Vinery Spiral Stakes at Turfway. Preachintothedevil fits comfortably with state-breds, but he was beaten by Toby’s Corner in the Whirlaway. He could improve second off the layoff and before the Spiral, never finished out of the money.
Son Of Posse may find this distance a challenge. There’s stamina in his distaff line, but his forwardly placed running style guarantees he’ll have to run every step of the way. Pass.
NORMAN ASBJORNSONhas been double digit odds in his last three starts. He won twice and finished best of the rest in the Gotham against Stay Thirsty. His speed figures are improving and he has a chance to repeat here.

Whirlaway hero TOBY'S CORNERwas rank in the Gotham and regressed off of the triple digit speed figure he earned in the Whirlaway. Hopefully, he’ll be more settled this time around. He’s beaten almost half the field in previous races, and he’s working well.
STARSHIP CAESAR had no response in the Gotham after an inside trip. Breaking from the 1 post in the Wood, he’ll likely get the same trip. Pass.


Arthur's Tale

 ISN’T HE PERFECT won for the first time in four starts this year against a soft allowance field, including Full Of Scoundrels after showing nothing in the Gotham. Pass. Ditto for FULL OF SCOUNDRELS. His speed figures improved in his first two races and if he were running against an allowance field going shorter, he might be worth a play.

So far, ARTHUR’S TALE has been a disappointment over the dirt. He was defeated by over 12 lengths the two times he took on listed stakes  winners, but found his comfort level last time out against optional claimers. He cost $750K at the Fasig Tipton Select Sale in 2009, and he’s well bred, by Bernardini out of a gorgeous Grade 2 turf router by Harlin. Skip the Wood, try him on turf.



Duca

 The requite last out maiden winner is DUCA. By Empire Maker out of Tempus Fugit (by Alphabet Soup) and with Quiet American as his second damsire, Duca is bred to run all day. His dam won her maiden in April of her three year old year, going 1 1/8 miles over the dirt. She went on to win three listed stakes and competed in several graded events without success. Duca has been on the Iron Maidens Kiddie List since he sold for $350K at the Fasig Tipton Select Sale in 2009. He could turn into a nice three year old later in the year, but he just won his maiden, is going against winners at a new track and distance. Lukas should point for the Belmont. Pass.

SELECTIONS:
How the track is playing: Like practically every other major track in the nation, Aqueduct is speed favoring. Seven races have been held at 1 1/8 miles this meet and 100% of them have been won by horses on or near the lead. Yawn.

If things go as planned, UNCLE MO should comfortably win here and go into the Derby with little more than two paid work outs. The real race is for second and third. NORMAN ASBJORNSON and DUCA are confirmed front runners. If both of them can sit back and let UNCLE MO do his thing, they might be around at the end. Both have router pedigrees and the right running style to be effective. SON OF POSSE will probably be up near the lead along with PREACHINTOTHEDEVIL. The later has enough class to hang around for a piece of the pie. TOBY’S CORNER should come flying at the end, but his running style works against him. Here’s our superfecta pick.

#5 UNCLE MO
#8 NORMAN ASBJORNSON
#2 TOBY’S CORNER
#6 PREACHINTOTHEDEVIL - LONGSHOT

Brethren vs. the Rest in the Tampa Bay Derby

With Uncle Mo scheduled to run in Gulfstream Park’s Timely Writer Stakes, the Tampa Bay Derby (G-2) is a showdown between the big hoss, Brethren vs. the foes he handily defeated in the Sam F. Davis Stakes plus the usual assortment of maiden/allowance winners.

BRETHREN (Distorted Humor – Supercharger, by A.P. Indy) galloped off with the Sam F. Davis stakes trophy by four lengths in his season debut.  He’s a half brother to last year’s Kentucky Derby winner and is undefeated in four starts. He hasn’t beaten high quality foes, as horses that have finished behind him have failed to live up to expectations.

After bobbling at the break, TOO EXPERIENCE (Drewman – Lake Victoria, by Meadowlake) found himself six lengths off of the pace in the Sam F. Davis, but closed to be best of the rest. He is the first stakes winner for his distaff family in two generations. Too Experience has been training strongly over the Tampa surface and owns a recent bullet breeze.

WATCH ME GO (West Acre - Sabbath Song, by Deputy Minister) was one-paced in the Sam F. Davis Stakes but grabbed a check for his third place finish, five lengths behind Brethren. Watch Me Go is a half-brother to a stakes placed turf sprinter. His unraced dam is a half-sister to two multiple stakes winners and the second dam is also a stakes winner. Watch Me Go shows a live work pattern and the O’Connell barn is hitting with 20% stakes runners.

BEAMER (Vindication - Untarnished, by Unbridled) was off slowest of all in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, but made up ground in the stretch to finish in fourth, a half-length behind Watch Me Go. Beamer’s dam is an unraced full sister to the Champion Filly Banshee Breeze and his second damsire Known Fact was a Champion Juvenile in Europe. Beamer races for the same connections as Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, who won the Tampa Bay Derby over this track.

ECONOMIC SUMMIT (Malibu Moon – Summit Lite, by Mt. Livermore) has worked strongly for his season debut. He was outclassed in last year’s Remsen Stakes and has plenty of room to improve. Economic Summit has a stamina over speed pedigree. His dam is a half sister to the Grade 3 turf winner Strategic Partner. His second dam, Very Special Lite, set a new course record for a mile in 1:33.60 at Keeneland. The graded stakes winning miler Two Step Salsa was produced by this distaff family.

 

Another son of Malibu Moon hoping to earn a check in the Tampa Bay Derby is MOONHANGER (Malibu Moon – Important Daisy, by Ghadeer). After winning his maiden by an embarrassing 11 lengths over the sloppy Tampa Bay track, Moonhanger switched to turf and just missed by ¾ a length after setting the entire pace in an optional claiming event a few weeks ago. The versatile colt has a blend of stamina and speed in his pedigree. His sire, a son of A.P. Indy, has produced the Graded Stakes routers Devil May Care, Life At Ten and Funny Moon. Moonhanger’s damsire was a prominent producer in Brazil, while his second damsire Spend A Buck won the Kentucky Derby. Moonhanger is a half brother to three Brazilian Group stakes winners.

Making his first start off of the claim, CRIMSON KNIGHT (Leroidesanimaux – For My Pleasure, by Numerous) gets another shot to prove that he can successfully handle the dirt. He was victorious last time out when switched to turf and has a miler pedigree that strongly hints that he’ll prefer the lawn. His sire is a Champion Turf miler and his miler damsire is a grandson of Nijinsky. Crimson Knight’s dam was a very durable runner. She made 47 starts, wining only four times, but placing in 12 tries. His second dam placed in a minor stakes event, and that’s it for recent blacktype in his distaff family. The Bennett barn is 27% off of the claim, but may be a bit ambitious here.

FREE ENTRY (Tale Of The Cat – Preachtothepulpit, by Pulpit) takes the next logical step up after earning victories in a maiden and allowance race. Free Entry is a product of the famed Claiborne Farm bloodlines. His sire and damsire are closely related, as their dams are half sisters. This gives Free Entry close inbreeding to the blue hen Narrate, the mother of Tale Of The Cat’s dam Yarn and Pulpit’s dam Preach. Free Entry is a half brother to the stakes winning sprinter Thunder’s Dove. His second dam Luxuriously is a half sister to the second crop sire With Distinction and Grade 1 placed Resort, dam of Peter Pan winner Sightseeing. The Chad Brown stable gets 21% winners when they ship.

We mentioned STRIDING AHEAD (Empire Maker - Helstra, by Nureyev) in the February watch list after his awesome performance at Tampa last month. His pedigree says the longer the better and there are plenty of Grade 1 winners and Champions in this colt’s family. His sire won the Belmont stakes and was building his reputation as a stamina-oriented sire but was sent to stud in Japan at the end of 2010. Striding Ahead is a half-brother to Stern Opinion, a French Group 1 sprinter and Dr. Arbatach, a Champion Sprinter in Puerto Rico. Their dam is a half-sister to the good sire Stormy Atlantic and stakes placed Devine Dixie, who is the dam of Grade 1 stakes winner and second-crop sire Bandini. Striding Ahead has worked sensationally after his impressive maiden score and the Mott barn is 18% with horses making their second start off of a layoff.

SELECTIONS:

How the track is playing: Overall, pace setters and pressers have the advantage, but during the last week, the track has played slightly to the traits of late pace and closers. Perfect Florida weather guarantees a fast track.

BRETHREN has the experience and talent to outclass this field. His works are good and he should improve in his second race off a layoff. Should something untoward happen, FREE ENTRY could gallop home with all of the marbles. He’s never run a bad race and there’s some speed in here to set up for his late closing run. BEEMER had an excuse in the Sam F. Davis. He broke last of all and managed to gain some ground in the stretch. A better break could earn him some cash here. STRIDING AHEAD won his race in comparable time to BRETHREN’S Sam Davis race. He has a fantastic pedigree and terrific works. His conservative trainer doesn’t often toss a recent maiden winner into graded stakes company so keep an eye on this one. MOONHANGER just missed at this distance last time out and the Alexander barn is 33% with the turf to dirt angle. TOO EXPERIENCE should be fit in his second try off the layoff, but the Passley barn is 0 for 22 with that angle. ECONOMIC SUMMIT is working well, but the others have the advantage of race fitness.

#10 BRETHREN 

#7 FREE ENTRY
#5 TOO EXPERIENCE
#1 STRIDING AHEAD - long shot pick

Gotham Stakes Trend

A trend is starting to appear in New York. A Gotham winner has also been victorious in a Classic race every eleven years.

Eleven years ago, Red Bullet won the Gotham and went on to win a Classic Race, when he spoiled Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus’ Triple Crown bid in the Preakness. Eleven years earlier, Easy Goer pulled a Gotham/Belmont Stakes double, getting his revenge on the Derby/Preakness hero Sunday Silence. Perhaps we’ll see a Gotham/Classic winner in Saturday’s field.

All eyes are on Uncle Mo’s workmate STAY THIRSTY (Bernardini – Marozina, by Storm Bird). The Grade 1 Stakes placed colt has been holding his own in the mornings and should be fit for his three year old debut. Stay Thirsty has a stamina oriented pedigree perfect for the Classics. He is a half brother to freshman sire Andromeda’s Hero and his precocious full brother Superfly. The Pletcher barn is winning stakes races at a 19% clip this year.

Whirlaway hero TOBY'S CORNER (Bellamy Road – Brandons Ride, by Mister Frisky) is riding a three race win streak and is the logical second choice. Toby is already a winner over the Aqueduct surface at 1 1/6 miles. His second crop sire is getting winners up to 1 mile 70 yards over dirt and Polytrack. Damsire won the Santa Anita Derby and was third in the Preakness. 1 Toby's Corner is a half-brother to stakes winner Bushmills Best, but that’s about it for stakes horses in the first three generations. The Motion barn is successful with 19% of last out winners.

PREACHINTOTHEDEVIL (Pulpit – Acey Deucey, by Abaginone) was a distant third behind Toby’s Corner in the Whirlaway. He’s had a couple of really good breezes and should be ready to go. Preachintothedevil’s dam was a multiple graded stakes winning sprinter/miler. His damsire, a son of Devil’s Bag, won two Grade 3 sprint races. Preachintothedevil’s BRISNET speed figures have improved in every race. The Contessa barn grabs 12% of graded stakes races.

Grace 2 placed NACHO SAINT (Yes It’s True – Flashy, by Wild Again) changed his running style and finally won his maiden after going winless in four attempts last year. To be fair, he’s been in the money in all of his starts, but he’s been chasing pacesetters over speed-favoring tracks. Nacho Saint’s dam is a half-sister to Kings Lyn, dam of Sara Louise and this year’s Debutante Stakes winner Just Louise. The Kelly Breen stable has only 11% stakes winners, but gets 14% winners in their second start off of a layoff.

Three colts who have won their last two attempts will step into graded stakes competition to see if they can make headway on the Derby trail.

NORMAN ASBJORNSON (Real Quiet – Merryland Missy, by Citidancer) has won his last two races by over seven lengths. He gets plenty of stamina from his sire and his dam was a stakes winning sprinter. His second damsire Smarten won at 1 ¼ miles and placed going 1 ½ miles. Norman Asbjornson’s BRISNET speed figures have jumped in his last two races, indicating that he’s starting to mature. The Christopher Grove stable wins 19% of stakes races, which is pretty good for a moderate-sized stable.

STARSHIP CAESAR (Repent – Starship Honor, by Honor Grades) tests deep waters today. After winning a maiden claimer at Calder, He took an allowance race for new owners at Gulfstream. Starship Caesar has a middle-distance pedigree. His sire Repent was a middle distance horse, winning at 1 1/16 miles and placing second in the Travers Stakes. Starship Caesar’s dam was unplaced in five starts and there’s no blacktype in his first three generations. His damsire is a half brother to S.P. Indy and Summer Squall.

Trainer Steve Asmussen snatched DAWLY (Awesome Again – Usrah, by Tiznow) from a maiden claiming race last December. Dawly has a pedigree loaded with stamina. He is the first foal for his unraced dam who is a half sister to the Grade 2 winner Doubles Partner. Further, his second dam is a full sister to Champion Serena’s Song. The gelding should improve with distance and could be one to watch.

THE FED EASED (Montbrook – Valid Invitation, by Take Me Out) dominated maidens in his second try and now faces stakes competition. The Fed Eased has a miler pedigree. He’s a half brother to stakes placed Sweet Enticement and his unraced dam is a half sister to stakes winner Rocky River. The Fed Eased’s breezes are steady and the Violette barn is winning with 20% of their charges this year.

The inappropriately named ISN'T HE PERFECT won against maiden claimers last November and hasn’t been close racing against optional claimer and allowance company. He has the pedigree to do best at two turns and also has an excellent mud pedigree. His works are slow and the Shivmangai barn has a 7% win rate this year.

SELECTIONS:

How the track is playing: 40% of the winners have wired the field in route races. Alternatively 40% of winners win as mid-pack runners.

STAY THIRSTY has the pedigree to do well in Classic races. He ran against some of the best last year and has the class edge. Is he cranked for his return to the races? He’s been working well and will be the chalk. TOBY’S CORNER’S has improved in every race and has the benefit of a recent race. Despite winning his maiden last time out, NACHO SAINT kept classy company last year and is graded stakes placed. He won’t get away with a :24 first quarter, but he’s working well and could surprise if the top two falter. PREACHINTOTHEDEVIL was no match for TOBY’S CORNER last time out. The colt’s running style works against him, but he’s one to use in the exotics. DAWLY has the pedigree to relish longer distances and has a recent race under his girth. NORMAN ASBJORNSON is ready to take the next step and he could grab part of the money.

#5 STAY THIRSTY
#4 TOBY’S CORNER
#2 NACHO SAINT
#9 DAWLY - longshot selection

The New Derby Rules – Does Uncle Mo Fit The Profile?

Over the last twenty years, colts that have been victorious in the Kentucky Derby have followed a fairly specific training pattern. The majority of the Derby winners from 1990 – 2010 made their initial start between June and October and won their maiden between August and November. Only two horses, Fusaichi Pegasus and Monarchos, didn’t win their maiden race until the following January. All except six contenders in twenty years have run in a stakes race as a two year old. Over the last eight years, all except three Derby heroes had a high cruising speed and sat in the first flight of horses. Of those, four had pedigrees considered borderline to get 1 ¼ miles.

Street Sense

Until 2007, the Derby champs started their three year old season in January or February and participated in three or four prep races before the big dance. Things changed in 2007 when Street Sense didn’t start his year until March and had only two prep races. Street Sense had a good two year old foundation. He had five starts and an Eclipse Award under his girth and he could rely on the purse earned from the lion’s share of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

The following year, Big Brown only made one start as a juvenile and didn’t start his journey on the Derby trail until March. Like Street Sense, Big Brown had only two prep races before the Kentucky Derby. Following in the hoof prints of Street Sense, Mine that Bird and Super Saver participated in two races before entering the Derby starting gate. Mine That Bird had his first start in February; Super Saver didn’t make his season debut until March. Of the three, only Big Brown earned his way into the Kentucky Derby off of his three year old earnings. His connections took a gamble and it paid off. A lesser horse would have been excluded from the starting gate.

There’s no question that Uncle Mo is currently the most talented colt of his generation. Besides locking up the Juvenile Championship with his decisive win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Uncle Mo gave an impressive display of speed and determination in the Champagne Stakes. Even though he didn’t beat a very accomplished field, Uncle Mo did it in style. His final time of 1:34.51 was a fifth off of the stakes record, and he tied Seattle Slew for the second fastest running of the Champagne. Unlike Seattle Slew, Uncle Mo fought with rivals every step of the way and showed an extra gear pulling away from an exhausted field.

Let’s take a closer look at this precocious colt’s pedigree.

Indian Charlie - Photo: Tony Leonard

His sire Indian Charlie won the Santa Anita Derby at 1 1/8 miles, but in the 1988 Kentucky Derby, weakened in the final furlong and finished third behind his stable-mate Real Quiet. Indian Charlie raced only five times and was retired after the Kentucky Derby due to injury.

 Unfortunately, In Excess, Indian Charlie’s sire, is prone to getting swift but often fragile sprinter/miler types and Indian Charlie is passing these genes along to his progeny. Six of Indian Charlie’s stakes wining progeny have won at 1 1/8 miles, but only Indian Charlie’s daughter Fleet Indian has been successful at 1 ¼ miles. Victorious in the Personal Ensign (G-1) and Delaware Handicap (G-2), Fleet Indian proved that her achievements at the top level of racing was no fluke.

Playa Maya

Uncle Mo’s stakes placed dam Play Maya was in the money in all six starts with earnings of $81,521. The versatile mare won over dirt, turf and placed over off going. She was the only foal produced by the Dixieland Band mare Dixie Slippers. Dixie Slippers achieved three career wins as a sprinter. She’s a half sister to Federico Tesio Stakes (G-3) winner Woods of Windsor and two stakes placed sprinters.

Arch, Uncle Moe’s damsire, won the 1 1/8 mile Fayette Stakes in 1:53.87 setting a new track record at Keeneland. He also took the 1 ¼ mile Super Derby and earned $480,969 in seven starts. At stud, the son of Kris S. is passing along his stamina. His best progeny are Horse of the Year contender Blame, Canadian Female Turf Champion Arravale, English Champion Les Arcs, South African Champion Sprinter Overreaching and multiple Grade 1 winner Pine Island. Both Blame and Pine Island are successful at 1 ¼ miles.

Arch - Photo: Claiborne Farm

Arch is a relatively new broodmare sire. His 70 producing daughters have produced 32 foals with 21 starters and eight stakes winners. Most are miler-types, but Arch’s grandson Blue Exit won the Prix Matchem (Fr. Listed) at 2000 meters (about 1 ¼ miles) over turf. Arch’s pedigree and record at stud indicate that his daughters could pass along stamina influences but it is too soon to make a definitive factual statement that Arch will be a stamina-oriented damsire.

Uncle Moe’s second damsire Dixieland Band was the damsire of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile/Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense and five other racers that were successful at 1 ¼ miles. Dixieland Band’s daughters passed along versatility to their offspring with the sire of the progeny often determining how far they would run.

Uncle Mo

Uncle Mo has shown that he is fast, precocious and has the will to win, but his pedigree appears borderline for getting the Kentucky Derby distance. Only time will tell if his talent can deepen with maturity and if he can stay abreast of rapidly developing late bloomers who should relish 1 ¼ miles and beyond. According to trainer Todd Pletcher, Uncle Mo will enjoy some down time in Ocala, Florida before joining the racing stable at Palm Meadows, Florida. Uncle Mo is slated to have two prep races before the Derby.

High cruising speed, borderline pedigree, two starts before the big dance. Uncle Mo fits the profile of a modern Kentucky Derby winner and could become the second horse to take Breeders’ Cup Juvenile/Kentucky Derby stakes.