Watch List Recap

During the two and early three year old seasons, I create the monthly Watch List, noting promising juveniles who are well-bred and/or won their debuts or other races impressively. Now that these babies have developed into mature three year olds, let’s wrap up the highlights of last season’s watch list before turning our attention to the two year olds of 2011.

I watched Astrology (A.P. Indy – Quiet Eclipse, by Quiet American) finish third in his debut on my birthday at Saratoga last year and immediately tagged him as a colt to watch. A half brother to three stakes winners with a stamina oriented pedigree, Astrology earned his own stakes win in the Iroquois (G-3) and was second to Santiva in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G-2). This year, Astrology began his year with a couple of second place finishes before charging from the back of the pack in the Preakness Stakes to grab the show spot. Astrology doesn’t appear to have the psyche and will to win, but we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and hope he’s just a late maturing colt. No doubt we’ll be seeing him in the big races this summer and fall.

Last August, the pedigrees and talent of three colts caught my eye and had me dreaming of the Kentucky Derby. Everyone had Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie – Playa Maya, by Arch) in their sights after his 14 length blowout in his debut. He went on to an undefeated season and took Champion Two Year Old honors. Uncle Mo became ill after the Wood Memorial, but wasn’t scratched from the Kentucky Derby until after the post positions were drawn. Hopefully we’ll see him race again, possibly this Fall.

Santiva (Giant’s Causeway – Slide, by Smarten) and Stay Thirsty (Bernardini – Marozina, by Storm Bird) both had blue-blooded two turn pedigrees and appeared to have the talent to be major players in their three year old season. Unfortunately, Santiva wound up six and Stay Thirsty was twelfth in the Kentucky Derby, but I predict both have good futures ahead, especially if Stay Thirsty is allowed to develop his own career instead of playing the role of Uncle Mo’s workmate.

His connections, Bobby Flay and Todd Pletcher, thought so highly of Sensational Slam (Grand Slam – Roman Romance, by San Romano) that they skipped the maiden conditions and sent Sensational Slam into a stakes race in his first start. He rewarded their faith by winning the Clarendon at Woodbine then turned around three weeks later to take the Vandal Stakes at the same track. Sensational Slam has been unplaced in two graded stakes, the With Anticipation and Blue Grass, but won the Fred “Cappy” Capossela earlier this year. The colt has been working consistently at Saratoga.

Smash (Smart Strike – Dixie Holiday, by Dixieland Band) was $400K purchase at 2010 OBSC March Select Two-Year-Olds in Training Sale. He was a precocious baby, and won his five furlong debut on July 18 over the Hollywood Cushion Track by 2 ½ lengths in :57 4/5 while on cruse control. Not surprisingly, Smash was injured and missed the rest of his juvenile season. He recently started his three year old campaign and placed second in a six furlong allowance race at Hollywood Park. Smash has been working steadily since that contest. His trainer Bob Baffert will certainly aim towards a stakes campaign for Smash, so keep an eye out for him in the Mid-summer races at Saratoga or DelMar.

In Florida, a state known for producing precocious juveniles, Awesome Feather (Awesomeofcourse – Precious Feather, by Gone West) swept the Florida Stallion Stakes then dominated the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. The undefeated miss earned top Two Year Old honors, but was injured, delaying the start of her three year old season. Awesome Feather recorded her first work for 2011 at Belmont Park on May 24, breezing three furlongs in 36.78. Hopefully, we’ll see her resume her career in late summer or early fall.

Alienation (Rock Hard Ten – Alienated, by Gone West) put up a fight to win her five furlong debut over Hollywood’s turf course, and then traveled east to contest the juvenile stakes races over the dirt. After pressing swift fractions in the Adirondack Stakes (G-2), Alienation finished a good second. She again finished second after a stumbling start in the Spinaway Stakes , but was toasted in the Oak Leaf (G-1) upon returning to Hollywood Park. The Baffert barn gave her some down time, and Alienation has been working steadily at Santa Anita for her comeback and perhaps we’ll see her back on the lawn this summer.

Excited (Giant’s Causeway – Path of Thunder, by Thunder Gulch) offered a professional win in her debut on August 27 traveling 1 1/6 miles in 1:45.17  over the firm Saratoga turf. She’s competed exclusively in stakes races and was third in the Good Mood as a juvenile. At three, Excited placed in the Sweetest Chant and Grade 3 Herecomesthebride before winning the Hilltop Stakes at Pimlico on May 20.

Royal Delta (Empire Maker – Delta Princess, by A. P. Indy) stormed out of the back of the pack to win her debut by 12 lengths Belmont Park and immediately jumped to the top of my list for Kentucky Oaks contenders. By a Belmont Stakes winner out of a mare by a Belmont Stakes winner, Royal Delta is the second foal for her dam, a multiple graded stakes winner over turf. Delta Princess is a full sister to Grade 1 winner Indy Five Hundred and she is a half sister to the Group 1 winner Biondetti, who competed in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Royal Delta’s third dam Proud Delta won the Beldame and Top Flight Handicaps (both Grade 1) as well as four other stakes races over dirt. Royal Delta had a late start to her three year old season and missed the Kentucky Oaks, but was a convincing winner of the recent Black Eyed Susan Stakes. Royal Delta will aim for the Grade 1 Alabama this summer at Saratoga.

I’ll continue to follow these talented horses throughout their racing and breeding careers. Maybe one will become the next Northern Dancer or a noted blue hen.

Can Uncle Mo Break The Jinx?

With less than a month until the Kentucky Derby, the prep races are in full swing across the nation. Florida and Louisiana have completed their series for three year olds, while Santa Anita and New York conclude their major preps this weekend. Even Illinois gets into the act with their Derby. Arkansas will have a full field in their Derby next weekend and Keeneland will conduct their premiere event, the Blue Grass Stakes (G-1). The last chance for Derby earnings will be the Lexington Stakes, scheduled for April 23, just two weeks before the big dance.


Uncle Mo

   Returning to this weekends graded stakes, all eyes will be on UNCLE MO in the Wood Memorial. On paper, he appears to dominate a very weak field of allowance and listed stakes competitors. We’ve seen other contests where the overwhelming favorite wasn’t supposed to loose, and there is always the slim possibility of that here, otherwise, the NYRA would just hand Uncle Mo’s owner Mike Repole a check and the trophy while the horses sit in the barn. Uncle Mo will try to remove the Wood Memorial jinx. The last two winners were injured before running in the Kentucky Derby, and since 1977, only two horses have pulled off the Wood Memorial/Kentucky Derby double, Pleasant Colony and Fusaichi Pegasus.
So, barring an unfortunate incident to Uncle Mo in the Wood Memorial, who is the best of the rest?
Two horses, PREACHINTOTHEDEVIL and SON OF POSSE had their tails handed to them in the Vinery Spiral Stakes at Turfway. Preachintothedevil fits comfortably with state-breds, but he was beaten by Toby’s Corner in the Whirlaway. He could improve second off the layoff and before the Spiral, never finished out of the money.
Son Of Posse may find this distance a challenge. There’s stamina in his distaff line, but his forwardly placed running style guarantees he’ll have to run every step of the way. Pass.
NORMAN ASBJORNSONhas been double digit odds in his last three starts. He won twice and finished best of the rest in the Gotham against Stay Thirsty. His speed figures are improving and he has a chance to repeat here.

Whirlaway hero TOBY'S CORNERwas rank in the Gotham and regressed off of the triple digit speed figure he earned in the Whirlaway. Hopefully, he’ll be more settled this time around. He’s beaten almost half the field in previous races, and he’s working well.
STARSHIP CAESAR had no response in the Gotham after an inside trip. Breaking from the 1 post in the Wood, he’ll likely get the same trip. Pass.


Arthur's Tale

 ISN’T HE PERFECT won for the first time in four starts this year against a soft allowance field, including Full Of Scoundrels after showing nothing in the Gotham. Pass. Ditto for FULL OF SCOUNDRELS. His speed figures improved in his first two races and if he were running against an allowance field going shorter, he might be worth a play.

So far, ARTHUR’S TALE has been a disappointment over the dirt. He was defeated by over 12 lengths the two times he took on listed stakes  winners, but found his comfort level last time out against optional claimers. He cost $750K at the Fasig Tipton Select Sale in 2009, and he’s well bred, by Bernardini out of a gorgeous Grade 2 turf router by Harlin. Skip the Wood, try him on turf.



Duca

 The requite last out maiden winner is DUCA. By Empire Maker out of Tempus Fugit (by Alphabet Soup) and with Quiet American as his second damsire, Duca is bred to run all day. His dam won her maiden in April of her three year old year, going 1 1/8 miles over the dirt. She went on to win three listed stakes and competed in several graded events without success. Duca has been on the Iron Maidens Kiddie List since he sold for $350K at the Fasig Tipton Select Sale in 2009. He could turn into a nice three year old later in the year, but he just won his maiden, is going against winners at a new track and distance. Lukas should point for the Belmont. Pass.

SELECTIONS:
How the track is playing: Like practically every other major track in the nation, Aqueduct is speed favoring. Seven races have been held at 1 1/8 miles this meet and 100% of them have been won by horses on or near the lead. Yawn.

If things go as planned, UNCLE MO should comfortably win here and go into the Derby with little more than two paid work outs. The real race is for second and third. NORMAN ASBJORNSON and DUCA are confirmed front runners. If both of them can sit back and let UNCLE MO do his thing, they might be around at the end. Both have router pedigrees and the right running style to be effective. SON OF POSSE will probably be up near the lead along with PREACHINTOTHEDEVIL. The later has enough class to hang around for a piece of the pie. TOBY’S CORNER should come flying at the end, but his running style works against him. Here’s our superfecta pick.

#5 UNCLE MO
#8 NORMAN ASBJORNSON
#2 TOBY’S CORNER
#6 PREACHINTOTHEDEVIL - LONGSHOT

The New Derby Rules – Does Uncle Mo Fit The Profile?

Over the last twenty years, colts that have been victorious in the Kentucky Derby have followed a fairly specific training pattern. The majority of the Derby winners from 1990 – 2010 made their initial start between June and October and won their maiden between August and November. Only two horses, Fusaichi Pegasus and Monarchos, didn’t win their maiden race until the following January. All except six contenders in twenty years have run in a stakes race as a two year old. Over the last eight years, all except three Derby heroes had a high cruising speed and sat in the first flight of horses. Of those, four had pedigrees considered borderline to get 1 ¼ miles.

Street Sense

Until 2007, the Derby champs started their three year old season in January or February and participated in three or four prep races before the big dance. Things changed in 2007 when Street Sense didn’t start his year until March and had only two prep races. Street Sense had a good two year old foundation. He had five starts and an Eclipse Award under his girth and he could rely on the purse earned from the lion’s share of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

The following year, Big Brown only made one start as a juvenile and didn’t start his journey on the Derby trail until March. Like Street Sense, Big Brown had only two prep races before the Kentucky Derby. Following in the hoof prints of Street Sense, Mine that Bird and Super Saver participated in two races before entering the Derby starting gate. Mine That Bird had his first start in February; Super Saver didn’t make his season debut until March. Of the three, only Big Brown earned his way into the Kentucky Derby off of his three year old earnings. His connections took a gamble and it paid off. A lesser horse would have been excluded from the starting gate.

There’s no question that Uncle Mo is currently the most talented colt of his generation. Besides locking up the Juvenile Championship with his decisive win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Uncle Mo gave an impressive display of speed and determination in the Champagne Stakes. Even though he didn’t beat a very accomplished field, Uncle Mo did it in style. His final time of 1:34.51 was a fifth off of the stakes record, and he tied Seattle Slew for the second fastest running of the Champagne. Unlike Seattle Slew, Uncle Mo fought with rivals every step of the way and showed an extra gear pulling away from an exhausted field.

Let’s take a closer look at this precocious colt’s pedigree.

Indian Charlie - Photo: Tony Leonard

His sire Indian Charlie won the Santa Anita Derby at 1 1/8 miles, but in the 1988 Kentucky Derby, weakened in the final furlong and finished third behind his stable-mate Real Quiet. Indian Charlie raced only five times and was retired after the Kentucky Derby due to injury.

 Unfortunately, In Excess, Indian Charlie’s sire, is prone to getting swift but often fragile sprinter/miler types and Indian Charlie is passing these genes along to his progeny. Six of Indian Charlie’s stakes wining progeny have won at 1 1/8 miles, but only Indian Charlie’s daughter Fleet Indian has been successful at 1 ¼ miles. Victorious in the Personal Ensign (G-1) and Delaware Handicap (G-2), Fleet Indian proved that her achievements at the top level of racing was no fluke.

Playa Maya

Uncle Mo’s stakes placed dam Play Maya was in the money in all six starts with earnings of $81,521. The versatile mare won over dirt, turf and placed over off going. She was the only foal produced by the Dixieland Band mare Dixie Slippers. Dixie Slippers achieved three career wins as a sprinter. She’s a half sister to Federico Tesio Stakes (G-3) winner Woods of Windsor and two stakes placed sprinters.

Arch, Uncle Moe’s damsire, won the 1 1/8 mile Fayette Stakes in 1:53.87 setting a new track record at Keeneland. He also took the 1 ¼ mile Super Derby and earned $480,969 in seven starts. At stud, the son of Kris S. is passing along his stamina. His best progeny are Horse of the Year contender Blame, Canadian Female Turf Champion Arravale, English Champion Les Arcs, South African Champion Sprinter Overreaching and multiple Grade 1 winner Pine Island. Both Blame and Pine Island are successful at 1 ¼ miles.

Arch - Photo: Claiborne Farm

Arch is a relatively new broodmare sire. His 70 producing daughters have produced 32 foals with 21 starters and eight stakes winners. Most are miler-types, but Arch’s grandson Blue Exit won the Prix Matchem (Fr. Listed) at 2000 meters (about 1 ¼ miles) over turf. Arch’s pedigree and record at stud indicate that his daughters could pass along stamina influences but it is too soon to make a definitive factual statement that Arch will be a stamina-oriented damsire.

Uncle Moe’s second damsire Dixieland Band was the damsire of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile/Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense and five other racers that were successful at 1 ¼ miles. Dixieland Band’s daughters passed along versatility to their offspring with the sire of the progeny often determining how far they would run.

Uncle Mo

Uncle Mo has shown that he is fast, precocious and has the will to win, but his pedigree appears borderline for getting the Kentucky Derby distance. Only time will tell if his talent can deepen with maturity and if he can stay abreast of rapidly developing late bloomers who should relish 1 ¼ miles and beyond. According to trainer Todd Pletcher, Uncle Mo will enjoy some down time in Ocala, Florida before joining the racing stable at Palm Meadows, Florida. Uncle Mo is slated to have two prep races before the Derby.

High cruising speed, borderline pedigree, two starts before the big dance. Uncle Mo fits the profile of a modern Kentucky Derby winner and could become the second horse to take Breeders’ Cup Juvenile/Kentucky Derby stakes.

On The Breeders’ Cup Trail – Watch List for August 31, 2010

This week’s watch list includes an undefeated stakes winner, possible Champagne Stakes contenders and some very well bred, talented juveniles who might make an appearance in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile races.

Gourmet Dinner - Photo: Jim Lisa

Gourmet Dinner (Trippi – Potluck Dinner, by Pentelicus) undefeated in three starts including two legs of the Florida Stallion Stakes, Gourmet Dinner has sprint speed on both sides of his pedigree. His sire and damsire were graded stakes winning sprinters. Gourmet Dinner is a half brother to turf sprinter Gaston A and stakes placed I’mroyallymecke’d. The dam is a half sister to two listed stakes sprinters. We’ll see if Gourmet Dinner can sweep the Florida Stallion Stakes in the In Reality Stakes on October 16.

Forum - Photo: Dogwood Stables

The third time was the charm for Forum (Roman Ruler - – Winners High, by High Yield). The well-bred colt sat on the hedge behind the pace setter, found a seam in the stretch and ran down the leader at the wire in a 1 1/6 mile turf race on August 28. Forum hails from the Calumet Farm-bred distaff family of Shuvee and he should be at his best up to 9F over turf or dirt.

Looking ahead to the Champagne Stakes (G-1) on October 9, we may see a couple of recent winners jumping into stakes company next time out. Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie – Playa Maya, by Arch) was an impressive 14 ½ length maiden winner is by a stallion who gets swift but fragile offspring. Damsire Arch won the Super Derby at 10F. Dam was in the money in all starts and is stakes placed. Second dam is a half sister to a stakes winner, but that’s about it for the distaff family.

Curlinello

Curlinello (Smart Strike – Colonella, by Pleasant Colony) made his debut in a difficult seven furlong race on August 21. Sitting mid pack, Curlinello made up five lengths with one furlong to go and ran down Joe Vann over the speed favoring Saratoga dirt. He’s a full brother to Arlington Classic winner Pleasant Strike, but has a strong dirt pedigree, especially for the mud. His phenomenal distaff family includes second dam Champion Minstrella, Saint Liam and traces back to the blue hen Gallorette. This is a colt with the pedigree to enjoy two turns and the clout of a distaff family to make him a serious horse to watch.

Checking out the fillies, Street Chimes (Street Sense - Pleasant  Chimes, by Pleasant Tap) was a good looking maiden winner traveling 7 furlongs over a sloppy Saratoga main track on August 22. She won under a hand ride by a diminishing ¾ length in 1:27.49. The daughter of Street Sense has Rasmussen Factor inbreeding (inbred to a superior dam within five generations) to Natamla through Northern Dancer, sire of Street Chimes’ second damsire, Dixieland Band, and Raise the Standard, the second dam of Machiavellian, who is the sire of Street Sense. Dam is a stakes winning half sister to Grade 2 winning turf warrior Freeforinternet and the second dam Dixie Chimes is a full sister to King’s Bishop winner Chimes Band.

Special mention of  the second place finisher Grace Alley (Flower Alley – Heart of Grace, by Exploit) who was flying at the end and made up several lengths through the stretch. As mentioned in the Freshmen Sire Guide, Flower Alley’s offspring will start to make their appearance as mid-to-late season two year olds. They’ll mature through their three year old season and most will prefer going two turns. Grace Alley is the first foal for her dam, who is a half sister to Grade 2 winner Broad Dynamite. Broad Dynamite produced stakes winner Dynazapper. Champion sprinter Very Subtle and Ruffian Handicap (G-1) winner Pool Land were produced from this family.

Excited

Excited (Giant’s Causeway – Path of Thunder, by Thunder Gulch) produced an exciting, yet very professional win in her debut on August 27 traveling 1 1/6 miles in 1:45.17  over the firm Saratoga turf. Breaking from the one post, the good looking chestnut daughter of Giant’s Causeway was stuck on the rail for most of the race and was blocked behind a wall of horses during most of the stretch drive. Without hesitation, she jumped through a small opening several strides from the wire and won by ½ a length. Excited is the first foal for her dam. Path of Thunder, a full sister to the Champion mare Spain, was a $1.2-million KEESEP yearling who won two minor stakes in 18 starts. Excited is a sister in blood (by the same sire out of full sisters) to Dreamtheimpossible, who was a stakes winner in Ireland and third in the Meon Valley Stud Fillies' Mile (G1 Ascot).

Summer Laugh - Photo: Adam Coglianese

Summer Laugh (Distorted Humor – Summer Colony, by Summer Squall) maybe headed to the Spinaway (G-1) on September 5. Trying 6 ½ furlongs over the Saratoga dirt On August 8, she laughed all the way to the wire beating her competition by 6 ¾ lengths, running 6 ½ furlongs in 1:18.12 at Saratoga. Summer Laugh’s dam was a durable mare. Her many victories included the Personal Ensign (G-1), Molly Pitcher (G-2) and LaCanada Stakes (G-2).