Coolmore Lexington Stakes Last Call for Derby Earnings

The Coolmore Lexington Stakes is the last ditch effort to earn graded stakes earnings for those desperate to enter the Kentucky Derby starting gate in two weeks. In 1999 Charismatic used the Lexington Stakes as a springboard to a Derby win and in 2002 Proud Citizen won the Lexington and placed in the Derby. Since Keeneland switched to Polytrack none of the contenders have finished in the money in the Kentucky Derby.

The probable favorite and only horse in the Lexington field that will have enough earnings to enter the Kentucky Derby should he win is SILVER MEDALLION . He is on the cusp of the Kentucky Derby earnings list. Silver Medallion beat a so-so group in the El Camino Real over Tapita and was victorious in the Eddie Logan over turf. He failed his test over the dirt, finishing a weakening fourth, 3 ½ lengths behind Midnight Interlude. Silver Medallion is the best representative of his second crop sire Badge of Silver.

DERBY KITTEN started putting it together when he won his maiden in January and placed in two subsequent starts, all over the turf. Derby Kitten is a full brother to the listed stakes winner William’s Kitten, who was unplaced in two starts over synthetics (Polytrack and Pro-Ride), but their sire Kitten’s Joy has a number of winners over the surface. The Maker barn is 29% with the turf to Poly angle.

PRIME CUT has shown improvement in every race this year, but this is his first attempt over Polytrack. His sire is known for producing synthetic track runners and Prime Cut’s damsire Stravinsky’s daughters’ offspring win over synthetic surfaces about 35% of the time. Prime Cut’s unraced dam Life Happened is a half sister to Maryland’s 2001 Champion Sprinter, Disco Rico. Prime Cut recorded a decent five furlong work over Keenland’s Polytrack so he should be good to go.

HURRICANE LAKE has been successful over allowance winners on Tapita. The Friends Lake gelding shows little blacktype in his distaff family and his dam won one of nine starts. The Bonde barn has a very good 26% win rate with stakes races, showing he knows how to place his horses.

TAPTOWNE wanted no part of 1 1/8 miles in the Vinery Spiral Stakes and wound up a very distant fifth, 12 lengths behind Animal Kingdom. The cut back in distance should suit Taptowne and he’s been working well at Turfway. He’s probably a cut below Silver Medallion but could grab a piece of it.

CASPER'S TOUCH was rank and had a tough trip in the Fountain of Youth Stakes in February. He was given the month of March to collect himself and came back against a soft allowance field over the Keeneland Polytrack for an important confidence booster. His pedigree is filled with stamina influences and if he does well in the Lexington, look for him in the Preakness.

SELECTIONS:

How the track is playing: this meet, the track is playing fair, however this week, the closers/late pace runners have won 69% of the 13 races held at 1 1/16 miles.

Unlike most of the Derby preps, the Lexington shapes up somewhat paceless. Silver Medallion and Prime Cut are the only ones who like to race close to or on the lead. It’s doubtful either one will gun for the lead and set swift fractions, but stranger things have happed this year.

SILVER MEDALLION is the class of the race and should be the easy winner. That’s what we said about Uncle Mo in the Wood Memorial, so anything can happen. There are a few horses who are starting to improve at the right time and could pull an upset. CASPER’S TOUCH was shoved into the Fountain of Youth off of a troubled allowance race. The colt likely wasn’t mentally ready and was rank in the stakes race, resulting in the worst finishing of his career. After getting some time off and a confidence building allowance race, CASPER’S TOUCH should be back on track and ready to go. PRIME CUT has been slowly improving and should he get the lead, PRIME CUT could set slow fractions and wire the field. This is a small field, so it’s hard to find a decent longshot. TAPTOWNE was a cut below in the Vinery Spiral, but there are no world beaters here. The pretty gray colt has been in the money in most of his races and he could do the same here.

#6 CASPER’S TOUCH

#2 SILVER MEDALLION

#3 PRIME CUT

#5 TAPTOWNE – longshot pick

Singin’ The Blues in the Bluegrass Stakes

The Blue Grass Stakes (G-1) has been churning out Kentucky Derby contenders since 1911. The names of Round Table, Northern Dancer, Forward Pass, Alydar, Spectacular Bid, Holy Bull and Street Sense adorn the roll call of this prestigious race. Since the track surface was converted to Polytrack, only Street Sense, who was second in the Blue Grass, continued on to win at the highest level. This year, like the last three, a wide open field competes for the all-important graded stakes earnings. Only a couple of Bluegrass contenders might make it into the Derby starting gate, while the rest will be left singing the Blues.

Traditionally, the Keeneland main track has been speed oriented. With the switch to Polytrack, the speed bias prevailed through the Fall 2010 meet. Only one race has been contested at 1 1/8 miles over the main track this Spring. However, eight races have been held at 1 1/6 miles. So far, the track has been playing fair. 50% of pace setters/pressers have been successful with 30% wiring the field. 30% of the late pace and 20% of the one run stalkers are victorious. Giant’s Causeway is the top sire of the race, with four representatives.

JOES BLAZING AARON (Graeme Hall – Distorted Blaze, by Distorted Humor) appears to be the controlling speed. He’s never tried Poly, but he’s riding a two win race streak at 1 1/8 miles over the turf. While we know Distorted Humor’s offspring run over anything, Graeme Hall’s progeny are poor/average over Poly. Still, Joes Blazing Aaron must be respected here, especially if he’s allowed to dawdle on the lead.

His stablemate, the pretty gray TWINSPIRED (Harlan’s Holiday – Historical Drive, by El Prado) favors his damsire in looks. The definitive victor of the WEBN Stakes has been outclassed against tougher foes in his last two starts. Twinspired has a miler pedigree. His dam is a half sister to a stakes winner and stakes placed runner, but overall, this is a modest distaff family.

SANTIVA (Giant’s Causeway – Slide, by Smarten) could keep Joes Blazing Aaron honest on the lead. In his three year old debut in the Risen Star, he was wide the whole way but was only 1 ½ lengths from the winner Mucho Macho Man. Santiva received a career best BRIS speed figure in that race and his works are strong. Santiva is a full brother to Her Majesty, who placed in the Alcibiades Stakes and a half brother to Take Arms, Grade 3 stakes placed. The dam is an unraced half sister to the Champion Sprinter Safely Kept and the graded stakes winning sprinter Partner’s Hero. Santiva was second in last year’s Breeders’ Futurity, so he has experience over the Keeneland Polytrack. His last breeze was sharp and he should appreciate the distance.

KING CONGIE (Badge of Silver – Wise Ending, by End Sweep) scratched out of the Vinery Spiral with a pulled muscle. He had a nice speed figure progression in his first two races of the year, but missed training due to his injury. His second crop sire is getting winners over all surfaces and distances. King Congie has a nice blend of speed and stamina in his pedigree. His damsire was a sprinter, but his second damsire Wise Times won the Travers and Super Derby at 1 ¼ miles. King Congie’s dam was a hardy mare, entering the starting gate 52 times and winning or placing in 40 of those starts. She’s a full sister to a stakes winner and two half siblings are stakes winners. We liked King Congie in the Spiral, but the colt missed some training in the last month.

King Congie’s stablemate BRILLIANT SPEED (Dynaformer - by Gone West) was mugged by King Congie in the Hallandale Beach Stakes, finishing third by half a length. Brilliant Speed is bred to run all day. His dam was unraced, but she’s a half sister to Falls City Handicap (G-2) heroine Serenading and that one’s full sister, listed stakes winner Handpainted; This is a quality distaff family. The second dam Daijin is a stakes winning full sister to Belmont Stakes hero and sire Touch God. Additionally, she’s a half sister to Canadian Triple Crown winner With Approval. Brilliant Speed’s third dam is 1989 Canadian Broodmare of the Year Passing Mood. Brilliant Speed has a live work pattern and the pedigree to perform well over Polytrack.

After winning the LeComte, there were high hopes for WILKINSON (Lemon Drop Kid – Tasha’s Delight, by Afternoon Deelites). He came up the rail to grab the LeComte Stakes by a determined head over Pants On Fire, getting a heady ride from Garret Gomez, but the colt smacked his head against the gate in the Louisiana Derby and was never a factor. Gomez jumps ship for Joes Blazing Aaron. Wilkinson has a stamina over speed pedigree and this distance should be within his scope. The Neil Howard trainee just missed in his maiden debut over the Keeneland poly last year, so we know he can handle the surface.

It isn’t a stakes race without a horse or three entered by Todd Pletcher.

His first contender, QUEEN’SPLATEKITTEN (Kitten’s Joy – Iteration, by Wild Again), has been first or second in all four starts. Queen’splatekitten’s dam went 0 for 11 on the track and there’s no blacktype in his first two generations. He has a router’s pedigree and has experience over Polytrack and at 1 1/8 miles. The far outside post could be detrimental, but with his stalking style, he can tuck in on the rail behind the rest. Pletcher’s main man Johnny V. stays aboard.

The second Pletcher entry is SENSATIONAL SLAM (Grand Slam – Roman Romance, by San Romano), who laid an egg in the With Anticipation Stakes last year, the only mar on his perfect record. He proved himself sprinting over dirt while winning the Fred "Cappy" Capossela Stakes sprinting over Aqueduct’s inner track in his three year old debut. Sensational Slam has a fantastic pedigree. His dam is a multiple stakes winning sprinter and he can trace his distaff family directly back to Best In Show, through her daughter Sex Appeal. Sex Appeal is a half sister to Blush With Pride, the grand dam of Rags to Riches. Sensational Slam has Rasmussen Factor inbreeding (inbred to a superior mare within five generations) to two excellent dams, the aforementioned Best In Show and Tamerett, the second dam of Gone West (who is the sire of Grand Slam). Sensational Slam is proven over Polytrack, but he is jumping from six to nine furlongs in only his second start off of a layoff.

Pletcher also entered the Stakes obligatory last out maiden winner. PRAETEREO (Giant’s Causeway – Deb’s Charm, by Silver Charm) has a stamina oriented pedigree and needed six attempts to win his maiden. Praetereo’s half sister Simply Spiteful is a listed stakes winner and his dam placed in a stakes, but only won once in six tries. There’s some quality in this family, as his dam is a half sister to Graded stakes winner Tasha’s Miracle and another half sister produced West Virginia Derby hero Concord Point. Praetereo is a winner at 1/18 miles, but was unplaced in his only try over Polytrack. His sire gets winners over Polytrack, but Silver charm is a poor damsire of poly runners.

Three more newcomers hoping to earn a trip to the Kentucky Derby are Wilcox Inn, Crimson China and Newsdad.

WILLCOX INN (Harlan’s Holiday – De Arr, by Gone West) has experience over poly and should handle the stretch out to 1 1/8 miles, as he has a long-winded distaff family. His sire won the Blue Grass in 2002 and his dam is a stakes placed half sister to graded stakes winning warriors Cetewayo and Bowman Mill, both winners at 1 ½ miles, as well as last year’s Beverly D. winner Dynaforce.

CRIMSON CHINA (Giant’s Causeway - Parisian Affair, by Mr. Greeley) was a gaining second in the Rushaway after breaking slow over a speed favoring track. His dam won a third of her 15 starts including a listed sprint stakes. She’s a half sister to the 2002 French Champion Juvenile Elusive City.

NEWSDAD (Arch – Storm Tracer, by Pulpit) has a stamina oriented pedigree, but tries Polytrack for the first time. He was a gaining third behind Joes Blazing Aaron in the Palm Beach Stakes (G-3) in his first start against winners and his late pace BRIS figures are improving. Newsdad’s unraced dam is a half sister to the stakes winning milers Field Cat and Estevan. The Mott barn wins 12% of the turf to Poly angle

SELECTIONS:

SANTIVA is the morning line favorite. He’s been on our watch lists ever since winning his maiden and is the class of the field. WILKINSON deserves another shot after his Louisiana Derby adventure. He’s a game horse and if he gets a decent trip, could walk away with all of the marbles. JOES BLAZING AARON appears to be the controlling speed and has a strong late kick as well. If they leave him alone through soft fractions, he’ll be under the wire before anyone notices. WILLCOX INN kept good company last year and should be sharp in his second race off of a layoff. CRIMSON CHINA may be a live longshot. He’s never been out of the money and is proven both at 1 1/8 miles and over Polytrack. Additionally, his speed figures improved in his first two starts. QUEEN’SPLATEKITTEN deserves consideration, so use him in your exotics.

#4 JOES BLAZING AARON

#3 SANTIVA

#9 WILKINSON

#11 CRIMSON CHINA - longshot

And Then There Were Nine

The Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby lost some luster with the scratch of San Felipe (G-2) victor Premier Pegasus. It lost more acclaim, as Jaycito’s trainer, Bob Baffert, has stated that the colt has been battling a foot bruise and is also out of the race.

That leaves a field of quasi-accomplished colts. ANTHONY’S CROSS lead in the stretch of the Robert B. Lewis (G-2) and barely hung on for the victory by a flared nostril. Anthony’s Cross appears to be the luke-warm favorite. The son of Indian Charlie will probably find 1 1/8 miles to be his top distance.

SILVER MEDALLION has proven himself over turf and Tapita. He beat a so-so group in the El Camino Real, proving 1 1/8  miles is within his scope. He’s the best representative of his second crop sire Badge of Silver’s progeny and is bred for the dirt. His sire won the New Orleans Handicap at 1 1/8 miles and damsire Stalwart was a precocious California juvenile.

After dominating the two year old scene in California late last year, COMMA TO THE TOP has struggled in two stakes attempts this year. He’s really cut out to be a miler, but tries hard every time.

The surprise longshot third place finisher in the Robert B. Lewis, QUAIL HILL faltered in the San Felipe. His last few works have been good and he may rebound for a piece of the Santa Anita Derby.

BENCH POINTS had his four race winning streak snapped in the San Felipe after taking farther off the pace than usual. He has a borderline  pedigree for 1 1/8 miles and will have to contend with a stronger group and longer distance. Having leading rider Raphael Bejarano on his back certainly helps.

INDIAN WINTER had a tough time in the Turf Paradise Derby and was placed second after Twice The Appeal was disqualified. We’ll toss that race. Indian Winter has won against listed winners, but he’s adding distance and going up against stakes caliber foes. His pedigree (Indian Charlie – Backroom Blues, by Dixieland Band) is borderline for the distance and his half siblings are sprinters. He could be talented enough to grab a piece of it, and his team of Hollendorfer and P Val must be respected.

Checking out the allowance winners, here’s what California track expert Steve T. had to say about MR. COMMONS. “Worked seven in a scorching 1:23.80 for John Shirreffs, and he is a trainer that thinks a :50.00 half mile is cooking. This is a special horse who knocked out the fastest time this year in his win on the hill and came right back and won a route on the main track in a very quick time.” This guy is bred to be fast. His second-crop sire Artie Schiller won the Breeders’ Cup Mile. None of his offspring have tried 1 1/8 miles, It’s rare to see the Champion Apalachee so close up in a pedigree, but he’s Mr. Commons’ damsire. Apalachee, a son of the great stamina influence Round Table, was a multiple Group 1 miler in England. As a damsire, he imparted brilliant speed to his daughter’s progeny, giving us the Champion Sprinter Artax, Multiple graded stakes winner Disco Rico, and the blazing fast Texas Glitter.

OFFLEE WILD BOYS is undefeated in allowance company since moving to the barn of Steve Miyadi. His second crop sire Offlee Wild’s babies have won at 1 1/16 miles and 1 1/8 miles should be within their scope. Offlee Wild won the Suburban at 1 ¼ miles and Offlee Wild Boys’ damsire Grand Slam is very versatile. Offlee Wild Boys has been working very well and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him finish in the money.

Every Derby prep this year has included a last out maiden winner. It’s no different in the Santa Anita Derby. MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE is by  Breeders’ Cup Mile hero War Chant out of a stakes placed New Zealand mare. His pedigree is heavy with turf influences, but he seems to do just fine over the dirt. He’s improved in every start and has the typically fast works of a Baffert trainee.

SELECTIONS:

How the track is playing: Out of nine races at 1 1/8 miles, 22% have wired the field, while the majority, 43%, have sat off the pace. Surprisingly, one run closers have also won 22%, while mid-pack runners are victorious 11% of the time.

Three quarters of the entrants are pace setter/pressers. BENCH POINTS and QUAIL HILL are the only confirmed off the pace runners, not counting JAYCITO. With PREMIER PEGASUS out and JAYCITO doubtful, ANTHONY’S CROSS and SILVER MEDALLION are the class of the race. OFFLEE WILD BOYS and QUAIL HILL are showing improvement and are appealing at long odds. BENCH POINTS attracts a top jock and could rebound. COMMA TO THE TOP likely doesn’t want any part of 1 1/8 miles and INDIAN WINTER and MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE appear up against it. MR. COMMONS is offlee, excuse me, awfully fast, but he’s adding two furlongs and will have to sustain that blazing speed. Is he The Factor part duex?

#9 ANTHONY’S CROSS

#4 SILVER MEDALLION

#3 MR. COMMONS

#7 QUAIL HILL - longshot

#1 OFFLEE WILD BOYS - longshot

CAN UNCLE MO BREAK THE JINX?

With less than a month until the Kentucky Derby, the prep races are in full swing across the nation. Florida and Louisiana have completed their series for three year olds, while Santa Anita and New York conclude their major preps this weekend. Even Illinois gets into the act with their Derby. Arkansas will have a full field in their Derby next weekend and Keeneland will conduct their premiere event, the Blue Grass Stakes (G-1). The last chance for Derby earnings will be the Lexington Stakes, scheduled for April 23, just two weeks before the big dance.


Uncle Mo

   Returning to this weekends graded stakes, all eyes will be on UNCLE MO in the Wood Memorial. On paper, he appears to dominate a very weak field of allowance and listed stakes competitors. We’ve seen other contests where the overwhelming favorite wasn’t supposed to loose, and there is always the slim possibility of that here, otherwise, the NYRA would just hand Uncle Mo’s owner Mike Repole a check and the trophy while the horses sit in the barn. Uncle Mo will try to remove the Wood Memorial jinx. The last two winners were injured before running in the Kentucky Derby, and since 1977, only two horses have pulled off the Wood Memorial/Kentucky Derby double, Pleasant Colony and Fusaichi Pegasus.
So, barring an unfortunate incident to Uncle Mo in the Wood Memorial, who is the best of the rest?
Two horses, PREACHINTOTHEDEVIL and SON OF POSSE had their tails handed to them in the Vinery Spiral Stakes at Turfway. Preachintothedevil fits comfortably with state-breds, but he was beaten by Toby’s Corner in the Whirlaway. He could improve second off the layoff and before the Spiral, never finished out of the money.
Son Of Posse may find this distance a challenge. There’s stamina in his distaff line, but his forwardly placed running style guarantees he’ll have to run every step of the way. Pass.
NORMAN ASBJORNSONhas been double digit odds in his last three starts. He won twice and finished best of the rest in the Gotham against Stay Thirsty. His speed figures are improving and he has a chance to repeat here.

Whirlaway hero TOBY'S CORNERwas rank in the Gotham and regressed off of the triple digit speed figure he earned in the Whirlaway. Hopefully, he’ll be more settled this time around. He’s beaten almost half the field in previous races, and he’s working well.
STARSHIP CAESAR had no response in the Gotham after an inside trip. Breaking from the 1 post in the Wood, he’ll likely get the same trip. Pass.


Arthur's Tale

 ISN’T HE PERFECT won for the first time in four starts this year against a soft allowance field, including Full Of Scoundrels after showing nothing in the Gotham. Pass. Ditto for FULL OF SCOUNDRELS. His speed figures improved in his first two races and if he were running against an allowance field going shorter, he might be worth a play.

So far, ARTHUR’S TALE has been a disappointment over the dirt. He was defeated by over 12 lengths the two times he took on listed stakes  winners, but found his comfort level last time out against optional claimers. He cost $750K at the Fasig Tipton Select Sale in 2009, and he’s well bred, by Bernardini out of a gorgeous Grade 2 turf router by Harlin. Skip the Wood, try him on turf.



Duca

 The requite last out maiden winner is DUCA. By Empire Maker out of Tempus Fugit (by Alphabet Soup) and with Quiet American as his second damsire, Duca is bred to run all day. His dam won her maiden in April of her three year old year, going 1 1/8 miles over the dirt. She went on to win three listed stakes and competed in several graded events without success. Duca has been on the Iron Maidens Kiddie List since he sold for $350K at the Fasig Tipton Select Sale in 2009. He could turn into a nice three year old later in the year, but he just won his maiden, is going against winners at a new track and distance. Lukas should point for the Belmont. Pass.

SELECTIONS:
How the track is playing: Like practically every other major track in the nation, Aqueduct is speed favoring. Seven races have been held at 1 1/8 miles this meet and 100% of them have been won by horses on or near the lead. Yawn.

If things go as planned, UNCLE MO should comfortably win here and go into the Derby with little more than two paid work outs. The real race is for second and third. NORMAN ASBJORNSON and DUCA are confirmed front runners. If both of them can sit back and let UNCLE MO do his thing, they might be around at the end. Both have router pedigrees and the right running style to be effective. SON OF POSSE will probably be up near the lead along with PREACHINTOTHEDEVIL. The later has enough class to hang around for a piece of the pie. TOBY’S CORNER should come flying at the end, but his running style works against him. Here’s our superfecta pick.

#5 UNCLE MO
#8 NORMAN ASBJORNSON
#2 TOBY’S CORNER
#6 PREACHINTOTHEDEVIL - LONGSHOT

Can Uncle Mo Break The Jinx?

With less than a month until the Kentucky Derby, the prep races are in full swing across the nation. Florida and Louisiana have completed their series for three year olds, while Santa Anita and New York conclude their major preps this weekend. Even Illinois gets into the act with their Derby. Arkansas will have a full field in their Derby next weekend and Keeneland will conduct their premiere event, the Blue Grass Stakes (G-1). The last chance for Derby earnings will be the Lexington Stakes, scheduled for April 23, just two weeks before the big dance.


Uncle Mo

   Returning to this weekends graded stakes, all eyes will be on UNCLE MO in the Wood Memorial. On paper, he appears to dominate a very weak field of allowance and listed stakes competitors. We’ve seen other contests where the overwhelming favorite wasn’t supposed to loose, and there is always the slim possibility of that here, otherwise, the NYRA would just hand Uncle Mo’s owner Mike Repole a check and the trophy while the horses sit in the barn. Uncle Mo will try to remove the Wood Memorial jinx. The last two winners were injured before running in the Kentucky Derby, and since 1977, only two horses have pulled off the Wood Memorial/Kentucky Derby double, Pleasant Colony and Fusaichi Pegasus.
So, barring an unfortunate incident to Uncle Mo in the Wood Memorial, who is the best of the rest?
Two horses, PREACHINTOTHEDEVIL and SON OF POSSE had their tails handed to them in the Vinery Spiral Stakes at Turfway. Preachintothedevil fits comfortably with state-breds, but he was beaten by Toby’s Corner in the Whirlaway. He could improve second off the layoff and before the Spiral, never finished out of the money.
Son Of Posse may find this distance a challenge. There’s stamina in his distaff line, but his forwardly placed running style guarantees he’ll have to run every step of the way. Pass.
NORMAN ASBJORNSONhas been double digit odds in his last three starts. He won twice and finished best of the rest in the Gotham against Stay Thirsty. His speed figures are improving and he has a chance to repeat here.

Whirlaway hero TOBY'S CORNERwas rank in the Gotham and regressed off of the triple digit speed figure he earned in the Whirlaway. Hopefully, he’ll be more settled this time around. He’s beaten almost half the field in previous races, and he’s working well.
STARSHIP CAESAR had no response in the Gotham after an inside trip. Breaking from the 1 post in the Wood, he’ll likely get the same trip. Pass.


Arthur's Tale

 ISN’T HE PERFECT won for the first time in four starts this year against a soft allowance field, including Full Of Scoundrels after showing nothing in the Gotham. Pass. Ditto for FULL OF SCOUNDRELS. His speed figures improved in his first two races and if he were running against an allowance field going shorter, he might be worth a play.

So far, ARTHUR’S TALE has been a disappointment over the dirt. He was defeated by over 12 lengths the two times he took on listed stakes  winners, but found his comfort level last time out against optional claimers. He cost $750K at the Fasig Tipton Select Sale in 2009, and he’s well bred, by Bernardini out of a gorgeous Grade 2 turf router by Harlin. Skip the Wood, try him on turf.



Duca

 The requite last out maiden winner is DUCA. By Empire Maker out of Tempus Fugit (by Alphabet Soup) and with Quiet American as his second damsire, Duca is bred to run all day. His dam won her maiden in April of her three year old year, going 1 1/8 miles over the dirt. She went on to win three listed stakes and competed in several graded events without success. Duca has been on the Iron Maidens Kiddie List since he sold for $350K at the Fasig Tipton Select Sale in 2009. He could turn into a nice three year old later in the year, but he just won his maiden, is going against winners at a new track and distance. Lukas should point for the Belmont. Pass.

SELECTIONS:
How the track is playing: Like practically every other major track in the nation, Aqueduct is speed favoring. Seven races have been held at 1 1/8 miles this meet and 100% of them have been won by horses on or near the lead. Yawn.

If things go as planned, UNCLE MO should comfortably win here and go into the Derby with little more than two paid work outs. The real race is for second and third. NORMAN ASBJORNSON and DUCA are confirmed front runners. If both of them can sit back and let UNCLE MO do his thing, they might be around at the end. Both have router pedigrees and the right running style to be effective. SON OF POSSE will probably be up near the lead along with PREACHINTOTHEDEVIL. The later has enough class to hang around for a piece of the pie. TOBY’S CORNER should come flying at the end, but his running style works against him. Here’s our superfecta pick.

#5 UNCLE MO
#8 NORMAN ASBJORNSON
#2 TOBY’S CORNER
#6 PREACHINTOTHEDEVIL - LONGSHOT

Kicking of Keeneland With Maiden Juveniles

Keeneland kicks off the Spring 2011 meet with a full field of two year old maidens. Nothing like starting with the promise of things to come. 

Tomorrow’s first race drew a full field of debuting two year olds going 5 ½ furlongs over the Polytrack. Traditionally at Keeneland, speed rules and in sprint races, whoever gets the best break and thus, the lead, is usually the winner. Below are a few notes regarding some of the contestants.

Two entrants were scratched, Soul Vacation, who was part of the entry, and Gentlemen’s Code one of my interesting longshots.


EVERYDAY DAVE (Weather Warning – Numerieus, by Numerous), trained by the master of two year olds, Wesley Ward is the even money favorite. Everyday Dave is by a minor son of Storm Cat out of a French juvenile stakes winner. He is the first foal from his dam and the distaff family is unremarkable and European. Nothing in his pedigree catches our eye, but his consistently faster works do, and his moring breezes indicate that he’s ready to roll. It’s hard to argue against a trainer with 69% lifetime wins with debuting maidens, but there’s another prospect in here that caught our eye.

Gold Digger

GIMMEAWISH (Gimmeawink – Wish For Candi, by Candi’s Gold) is worth serious consideration. His sire gets about 25% winners over Polytrack and 15% juvenile winners, which is above average. Gimmeawish has a precocious distaff family His dam won two listed stakes at Hastings as a juvenile and she has a pretty good record as a broodmare. All seven of her foals raced, four are winners, and one is a stakes winner. Three won at two, including Gimmeawish’s full sister Michaela's Candi and Pete’s Wonder, who placed in the Victoria Stakes at Woodbine in his second start.

Gimmeawish has inbreeding to Gold Digger, through her sons Mr. Prospector, the third sire of Gimmeawink, and his unraced half brother Yukon, the sire of Candi’s Gold. The trainer, John Pucek, has a 32% lifetime record with maidens. Gimmeawish has flashed some speed in the mornings and his 10-1 odds are enticing.

CURFEW TOWER (City Zip – Lights Out, by Way Of Light) is by a superior sire of two year olds and Polytrack runners out of a dam by a Champion French Juvenile. His dam failed to win as a juvenile and his half sister by Suave hasn’t won in six attempts. There are still a few things to like about this colt. He’s shown some speed in the mornings at Keeneland and his trainer Eric Reed has a 38% lifetime win rate with two year olds.

CONCEPT (Montbrook – Quincy Market, by Boston Harbor) is the token filly in the race. Her sire and damsire get win-early sprinters and 25% of her sire’s offspring hit the board over Polytrack. Her dam took 10 starts to win her maiden and neither of Concept’s siblings are winners.

HACHI (Cuvee – What’d I Say, by Shuailaan) has sprinter speed over stamina. His dam didn’t win a race until she was four and she’s a half sister to two stakes winners. The distaff family isn’t particularly precocious and Hachi is her first foal. Cuvee gets 16% lifetime juvenile winners, but only around 14% Polytrack winners. The Corrigan barn is 26% lifetime with maidens.

ADENA'S CHANCE (Limehouse - Little Krissy, by Kris S.) only recorded two public works at Keeneland, including a decent gate work, so this colt is likely working at a private farm. At least we hope so. His sire gets an above-average 16% juvie winners and Kris S. is no slouch as a broodmare sire. Adena's Chance’s dam won one of two starts as a three year old, and we’re suspecting she had soundness issues. He’s her fourth foal, and only one half sibling is a winner. That one took his sweet time winning his maiden and only won twice in 18 attempts.

Selections:
#7 GIMMEAWISH
#1 EVERYDAY DAVE
#3 CURFEW TOWER
#5 HACHI

Formidable Field In Florida

In the last ten years, the Florida Derby has showcased the talents of Monarchos, Barbaro and Big Brown. All three were brilliant winners weeks later in Kentucky. Empire Maker and Ice Box were successful in Florida but were second-best in Kentucky, while the swift Quality Road discovered he was superior at 1 1/8 miles and not one step farther.
This year’s Florida Derby field appears to be the strongest in years, and it would be no surprise if one of the contestants becomes a Kentucky Derby hero.
The dominating conqueror of the Fountain of Youth, SOLDAT (War Front – Le Relais, by Coronados Quest) clearly loves the Gulfstream surface and is the best representative of his second crop sire. Soldat has a speed over stamina pedigree with a mix of dirt and turf attributes. His second crop sire, a son of Danzig, is a Grade 2 winning dirt sprinter while damsire Coronado’s Quest won the Travers Stakes. Second damsire Apalachee was a Champion sprinting juvenile in Europe. Soldat is the deserving favorite in the Florida Derby.
A surprising and distant third against Soldat in the Fountain Of Youth, TO HONOR AND SERVE (Bernardini – Pilfer, by Deputy Minister clearly needed the race. He has a pedigree well-suited to the Classic distances and the Bill Mott Trainee has been working spectacularly over the deep Payson Park surface and should be stronger the second time around.
Uncle Mo’s stable mate STAY THIRSTY (Bernardini – Marozina, by Storm Bird) strode out of his famous stable mate Uncle Mo’s shadow and easily beat a second-rate group in the Gotham Stakes (G-3). Stay Thirsty has a stamina oriented pedigree perfect for the Classics. He is a half brother to freshman sire Andromeda’s Hero and his precocious full brother Superfly. Stay Thirsty adds blinkers to keep him focused and we should get a good indication of how good he is in the Florida Derby.
The Holy Bull (G-3) winner DIALED IN (Mineshaft - Miss Doolittle, by Storm Cat) regressed slightly in his Florida Derby prep race, but he still ran a strong race over a surface that plays against his running style. He’s a half-brother to Astoria Stakes (5F) winner Broadway Gold and turf stakes placed runner Mambo Meister. His dam was third in the Schuylerville Stakes (G-3) and Eliza, the second dam won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and was second in the Kentucky Oaks. Dialed In should get a strong pace to set up his stretch run.
SHACKLEFORD (Forestry – Oatsee, by Unbridled) Like Soldat, Shackleford had no response in the Fountain Of Youth after a good win previously against allowance company. Shackleford has a speed over stamina pedigree. He’s a half-brother to Alabama Stakes (G-1) heroine Lady Joanne and Grade 2 winner Baghdaria. His dam and second dam are both stakes winners. His sire Forestry has produced two dirt stakes winners at 1 1/8 miles, Discreet Cat and Etched. Shackleford and Etched have similar breeding as both have Unbridled sire line dams.
BOWMAN'S CAUSEWAY (Giant’s Causeway – Victory Encounter, by Victory Speech) was thrown into graded stakes competition only two weeks after winning his maiden. The Patrick Biancone trainee has a stamina oriented pedigree and his dam won four stakes races, including the Vanity Handicap (G-1) at 1 1/8 miles. Bowman’s Causeway raced evenly against speedier rivals in his one mile prep for the Florida Derby. Like Dialed In, bowman’s Causeway is hindered by a speed favoring track, but if he wants to buy his ticket to Kentucky, he must overcome the bias and win here.
FLASHPOINT (Pomeroy - Two Punch Lil, by Two Punch) made short work of a nice group of sprinters in the Hutchinson Stakes (G-2) and will try to stretch his front-running speed an extra two furlongs. Flashpoint has a sprinter/miler pedigree. So far, his second crop sire’s offspring have failed to win at 1 1/8 miles. Pomeroy’s best representative on the track is El Camino Real Derby winner Positive Response. Flashpoint’s dam won half of her eight starts, including a stakes race. She is inbred to the blue hen Raise You through her third sire Raise A Native and his full sister, Toast Of The Town, who is Two Punch’s third dam. The pretty gray Flashpoint will has the difficult task of breaking on the far outside.
A newcomer to the Derby trail, ARCH TRAVELER (Sky Mesa – Mettle, by Silver Deputy) has won his last two races, including a win at 1 1/8 miles. Five of his sire’s progeny have been successful in stakes at 1 1/8 miles; all have stamina-oriented female families. Silver Deputy is the damsire of four winners at 1 1/8 miles. Three out of four of Arch Traveler’s siblings of racing age are winners. His dam won three of eight starts sprinting over dirt and she’s a half-sister to a couple of Japanese stakes winners. Arch Traveler won’t get easy fractions in this race and may become a pace casualty.
SELECTIONS:
How the track is playing: 67% pace setters/pressers have won this meet, with 38% going wire-to-wire. Outside posts are at a disadvantage with the first turn just yards from the starting gate. Weather should be beautiful as always and the track should be fast.
This year’s Florida Derby has a plethora of speed and there will be a likely traffic jam around the first turn and down the backstretch. The horses nearest the rail should have the best trip. SOLDAT and TO HONOR AND SERVE can handle a quick pace and still be strong in the final furlong. If DIALED IN doesn’t have to go too wide around the final turn, he’ll mow down the tiring field and should get a piece of it. STAY THIRSTY will get a real class test and it will be no surprise to see his nose on the wire first. If BOWMAN’S CAUSEWAY can get a decent trip, he could round out the exotics at long odds. SHACKLEFORD and ARCH TRAVELER have wins at 1 1/8 miles against lesser company. Their pedigrees indicate this is as far as they’ll want to run and their forward running styles could have them going the wrong way when the real running begins. FLASHPOINT is a sprinter and will be looking for an Oxygen tank after a mile.
#2 TO HONOR AND SERVE
#1 SOLDAT
#7 DIALED IN
#6 STAY THIRSTY
#4 BOWMAN’S CAUSEWAY – longshot pick