Early December Watch List

The Breeders’ Cup races are in the history books and the juvenile stakes races will conclude with the Hollywood Starlet (G-1) on December 4. Between now and the first Saturday in May, countless Derby watch lists will be on every webpage, blog and Twitter page in the country. Colts that appear invincible one month will become yesterday’s news the next. Late maturing two year olds with only a few starts under their girth often jump to the top of the Derby rankings the following February or March.

Uncle Mo had an amazing two year old season. Will he continue to improve or go the way of War Pass, Johannesburg, and Arazi. They decimated their Breeders’ Cup Juvenile fields and earned Championships for their perfect seasons, but failed to replicate that form at three. Only time and racing will prove if Uncle Mo can move forward. His precocious pedigree will be a concern as he tries to carry his speed against the late maturing three year olds with pedigrees better suited for the Classics. Below are a few hopefuls that could become contenders next year.

From the connections who brought us Curlin, Astrology (A.P. Indy – Quiet Eclipse, by Quiet American) has a strong stamina-oriented pedigree with breeding to get the Classic distances. He’s a half brother to Lunarpal, a G-3 winner as a juvenile and to stakes winners Lunarlady and Lunargal. Trained by Steve Asmussen, Astrology now has five starts under his girth and has never finished out of the money. After winning the Grade 3 Iroquois by an easy 2 ¾ lengths, Astrology came back to finish second to the promising Santiva in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G-2). With the exception of Super Saver, most of the colts who have run in these two races have stayed at the Grade 2 and Grade 3 level.

Santiva (Giant’s Causeway – Slide, by Smarten) has been running against decent juveniles all summer. He’s been second behind JB’s Thunder twice, once over turf and again over Polytrack. Santiva decided that going two turns over dirt was to his liking and won his maiden in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G-2). On paper, the bay colt is borderline for the Derby distance of 1 ¼ miles We know his international sire gets long-winded runners, but as a broodmare sire, Smarten hasn’t produced a winner past 1 1/8 furlongs. Smarten himself was a Grade 2 and 3 sort, and won once at 1 ¼ miles against lesser company but wasn’t quite up to the top level of competition, finishing second four times at the distance against Grade 1 horses. He also finished second twice at 1 ½ miles. Santiva is a half brother to two stakes placed runners and his unraced dam is a half sister to the Champion Sprinter Safely Kept and the multiple stakes winning sprinter Partner’s Hero. Despite his challenged pedigree, Santiva is still a colt to watch during the Derby preps. Pedigree is only one faucet and the colt could have what it takes to be a major player.

Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes

At Aqueduct a week after the Breeders’ Cup, Lauburu (Unbridled’s Song – Goulash, by Mari’s Book) proved best by a nose over a field of well-bred maidens going seven furlongs at Aqueduct. Stumbling at the break, The Pletcher trainee moved up to press the pace, then sustained a late challenge from Break Up The Game. Lauburu cost $925,000 at the 2009 Keeneland September Yearling Sale and is owned by Michael Tabor, Mrs. Magnier, James Scatuorchio and Derrick Smith. The pretty gray colt is a half brother to five stakes horses, including two-time Champion Ashado, and her full brother Grade 1 turf stakes winner Sunriver.

Gallant in defeat, Break Up The Game (Bernardini – Pennant Champion, by Mr. Prospector) charged from the back of the pack and fought valiantly to the wire. There’s no doubt the son of Bernardini will want to go farther. Break Up The Game descends from the illustrious Phipps family broodmare band. He is a half brother to the dam of multiple graded stakes winner Interactif and his second dam is Champion Mare and blue hen Personal Ensign. Break Up The Game’s dam Pennant Champion was in the money five of seven tries, but never won a stakes race. She is a full sister to Champion My Flag and the Grade 1 winning sires Miners Mark, Our Emblem (sire of Derby winner War Emblem), Proud and True and Traditionally. Break Up The Game’s conservative trainer Shug McGaughey rarely sends his two year olds to the track ready to rumble first time out. The ones that do well in their maiden attempt generally wind up as stakes winners. Hopefully, Break Up The Game will prove to be more talented than his ¾ brothers Powerhouse (by A.P. Indy) who won one of 12 attempts and Powerhouse’s full brother A Great Team, who was in the money five of six starts but has no blacktype (stakes wins).

Lauburu maiden win

Not quite under the radar after his recent win in an allowance race at Churchill, Brethren (Distorted Humor – Super Charger, by A.P. Indy) is a half brother to this year’s Derby winner Super Saver. Despite bolting wide from the outside post, Brethren rated professionally near the back of the pack and won going away.

Second place finisher El Grayling (El Prado (IRE) - Smokey Diplomacy, by Dynaformer) was up near the pace of the mile dirt race and came on to out-finish Justin Phillip. El Grayling has strong turf breeding top and bottom, yet his dam placed in a stakes race over the dirt, showing the influence of her damsire Relaunch. The sire of El Grayling gets winners over all surfaces and his best progeny over dirt are Madaglia D’Oro and Borrego. The pretty gray El Grayling has made six starts. After breaking his maiden on the turf going a mile, he disappointed in subsequent starts over the lawn before getting up for second place behind Brethren. Like many young horses, El Grayling shows signs of ability, but may need time to figure things out.

Justin Phillip (First Samurai – Avaknowsthecode, by Cryptoclearance) was clearly third best in this contest. Justin Phillip’s damsire and second damsire were winners at 1 ½ miles. His dam was stakes paced and Justin Phillip is a half brother to sprinter Keyed Entry who set a new track record at Gulfstream Park for 7 1/2 furlongs in 1:27.12. Two other siblings are stakes winners as well. It’s questionable how far First Samurai offspring will go, but Justin Phillip could turn out to be decent up to 1 1/16 – 1 1/8 miles.

Brethren allowance win

In California, the big news is Santa Anita’s switch back to real, live dirt. A number of horses that run poorly over Polytrack and Cushion often benefit with a switch to dirt, especially the progeny of A.P. Indy and his sons. One to watch in his first dirt attempt is World Renowned (A.P. Indy – Splendid Blended, by Unbridled’s Song). World Renowned’s dam won the Hollywood Starlet and Vanity Stakes, both Grade 1 events. Trained by John Sadler, the colt has had a steady diet of six furlong works punctuated here and there by the occasional four or five furlong work. In his maiden debut on November 28, World Renowned broke from the 3 post, was slightly rank on the inside and had to be steadied at the 5/8 pole. He wasn’t much of a factor and finished about five lengths behind the winner, Oakcrest Drive (Arch – Ascension, by Night Shift). That one’s dam was Group 2 sprinter in France and her sire produced a handful of Group 1 winners, including 1992 Hollywood Starlet winner Creaking Board and the multiple Group 1 stayer Azamour. Oakcrest Drive has strong breeding for turf and will likely remain on the synthetics or the lawn. 6 ½ furlongs in 1:16.94.

Oakcrest Drive maiden win

Another son of A.P. Indy profiting from the Polytrack-to-dirt transfer was Shadow Warrior (A.P. Indy – Victory Ride, by Seeking The Gold). The George Arnold trainee gained ground to finish fourth in his debut this fall at Keeneland, then easily beat a nice field of maidens by three lengths at a mile. His dam Victory Ride was a swift sprinter/miler and won the 2001 Test Stakes (G-1) over eventual champion Xtra Heat. She’s a half sister to Hollywood Derby (G-1) winner River Flyer. Among the Grade 1 stakes winners Seeking The Gold’s daughters have produced are Dancing Forever, Majestic Warrior and Blame. Awesome Bet (Awesome Again – Ellies Moment, by Kris S) gained second and he’s another colt who will want to go longer. His dam is a stakes winning ¾ sister to Preakness and Belmont runner-up Brian’s Time.

Shadow Warrior maiden win

Shifting our focus to the fillies to watch for next year’s big races, Royal Delta (Empire Maker – Delta Princess, by A. P. Indy) stormed out of the back of the pack to win her debut by 12 lengths Belmont Park. She has the pedigree to be not only a Kentucky Oaks contender, but could be well suited to become the first Triple Tiara winner since 1993. By a Belmont Stakes winner out of a mare by a Belmont Stakes winner, Royal Delta is the second foal for her dam, a multiple graded stakes winner over turf. Delta Princess is a full sister to Grade 1 winner Indy Five Hundred and she is a half sister to the Group 1 winner Biondetti, who competed in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Royal Delta’s third dam Proud Delta won the Beldame and Top Flight Handicaps (both Grade 1) as well as four other stakes races over dirt.

Royal Delta maiden win

Equally impressive in an allowance race at the Fairgrounds on November 27 was Flash Mash (Smarty Jones – Magical Flash, by Miswaki). Now undefeated in two starts, the Chestnut miss got the best of a quarter-mile speed duel then opened up, embarrassing three other fillies by over 10 lengths at the Fairgrounds. Don’t expect that win to be a fluke. Flash Mash is a half sister to three stakes winners and one half sibling set a new track record at Woodbine for 1 ¼ miles in 2:04.69. Her dam is a half sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Magical Maiden, who is the granddam of Pappa Clem. Flash Mash has now won both of her six furlong starts in under 1:11. Her pedigree leans towards speed, so we likely won’t see her in the Kentucky Oaks, but she could be one to consider for next year’s sprints, especially the Test Stakes. The distant second place finisher to Flash Mash, Tristanme was on a previous watch list for her courageous battle against Just Louise in the Churchill Downs Debutante (G-3). Tristanme finished second by a neck in that race, but hasn’t fared well in subsequent starts.

Flash Mash allowance race

Another youngster that may not aim for the Oaks, but should still be one to watch is Amusing (Distorted Humor - Cloud Break, by Dr Carter). The half sister to Champion Sprinter Lost In The Fog won in her second try at Belmont Park on Halloween. Getting the six furlongs in an average 1:11, she sat just off of the pace and took over in the stretch, going away by 1 ¾ lengths. Amusing has inbreeding to the blue hen Pocahontas and to Ribot within five generations, which is uncommon. The chestnut filly hasn’t worked back after her win, which is worrisome, but we’ll keep an eye on her anyway.

Amusing maiden win

December Watch List

The Breeders’ Cup races are in the history books and the juvenile stakes races will conclude with the Hollywood Starlet (G-1) on December 4. Between now and the first Saturday in May, countless Derby watch lists will be on every webpage, blog and Twitter page in the country. Colts that appear invincible one month will become yesterday’s news the next. Late maturing two year olds with only a few starts under their girth often jump to the top of the Derby rankings the following February or March. This is a continuation of the Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds December Watch List which was started on our main website. 

World Renowned - Photo: Jessica M

In California, the big news is Santa Anita’s switch back to real, live dirt. A number of horses that run poorly over Polytrack and Cushion often benefit with a switch to dirt, especially the progeny of A.P. Indy and his sons. One to watch in his first dirt attempt is World Renowned (A.P. Indy – Splendid Blended, by Unbridled’s Song). World Renowned’s dam won the Hollywood Starlet and Vanity Stakes, both Grade 1 events. Trained by John Sadler, the colt has had a steady diet of six furlong works punctuated here and there by the occasional four or five furlong work. In his maiden debut on November 28, World Renowned broke from the 3 post, was slightly rank on the inside and had to be steadied at the 5/8 pole. He wasn’t much of a factor and finished about five lengths behind the winner, Oakcrest Drive (Arch – Ascension, by Night Shift). That one’s dam was Group 2 sprinter in France and her sire produced a handful of Group 1 winners, including 1992 Hollywood Starlet winner Creaking Board and the multiple Group 1 stayer Azamour. Oakcrest Drive has strong breeding for turf and will likely remain on the synthetics or the lawn. 6 ½ furlongs in 1:16.94.

Shadow Warrior -  Photo: Jessica M

Another son of A.P. Indy profiting from the Polytrack-to-dirt transfer was Shadow Warrior (A.P. Indy – Victory Ride, by Seeking The Gold). The George Arnold trainee gained ground to finish fourth in his debut this fall at Keeneland, then easily beat a nice field of maidens by three lengths at a mile. His dam Victory Ride was a swift sprinter/miler and won the 2001 Test Stakes (G-1) over eventual champion Xtra Heat. She’s a half sister to Hollywood Derby (G-1) winner River Flyer. Among the Grade 1 stakes winners Seeking The Gold’s daughters have produced are Dancing Forever, Majestic Warrior and Blame.
Awesome Bet (Awesome Again – Ellies Moment, by Kris S) gained second and he’s another colt who will want to go longer. His dam is a stakes winning ¾ sister to Preakness and Belmont runner-up Brian’s Time.

Royal Delta Photo Coglianese

Shifting our focus to the fillies to watch for next year’s big races, Royal Delta (Empire Maker – Delta Princess, by A. P. Indy) stormed out of the back of the pack to win her debut by 12 lengths Belmont Park. She has the pedigree to be not only a Kentucky Oaks contender, but could be well suited to become the first Triple Tiara winner since 1993. By a Belmont Stakes winner out of a mare by a Belmont Stakes winner, Royal Delta is the second foal for her dam, a multiple graded stakes winner over turf. Delta Princess is a full sister to Grade 1 winner Indy Five Hundred and she is a half sister to the Group 1 winner Biondetti, who competed in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Royal Delta’s third dam Proud Delta won the Beldame and Top Flight Handicaps (both Grade 1) as well as four other stakes races over dirt.

Flash Mash - Photo: Candice Chavez

Equally impressive in an allowance race at the Fairgrounds on November 27 was Flash Mash (Smarty Jones – Magical Flash, by Miswaki). Now undefeated in two starts, the Chestnut miss got the best of a quarter-mile speed duel then opened up, embarrassing three other fillies by over 10 lengths at the Fairgrounds. Don’t expect that win to be a fluke. Flash Mash is a half sister to three stakes winners and one half sibling set a new track record at Woodbine for 1 ¼ miles in 2:04.69. Her dam is a half sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Magical Maiden, who is the granddam of Pappa Clem. Flash Mash has now won both of her six furlong starts in under 1:11. Her pedigree leans towards speed, so we likely won’t see her in the Kentucky Oaks, but she could be one to consider for next year’s sprints, especially the Test Stakes. The distant second place finisher to Flash Mash, Tristanme was on a previous watch list for her courageous battle against Just Louise in the Churchill Downs Debutante (G-3). Tristanme finished second by a neck in that race, but hasn’t fared well in subsequent starts.

Amusing - Photo: Sheri Pitzer



Another youngster that may not aim for the Oaks, but should still be one to watch is Amusing (Distorted Humor - Cloud Break, by Dr Carter). The half sister to Champion Sprinter Lost In The Fog won in her second try at Belmont Park on Halloween. Getting the six furlongs in an average 1:11, she sat just off of the pace and took over in the stretch, going away by 1 ¾ lengths. Amusing has inbreeding to the blue hen Pocahontas and to Ribot within five generations, which is uncommon. The chestnut filly hasn’t worked back after her win, which is worrisome, but we’ll keep an eye on her anyway.

Remsen Stakes (G-2) Pedigree Profiles and Handicapping Selections

The historical Remsen Stakes (G-2) has been run consecutively since 1918 and several winners competed successfully in the Spring Classics. In the last twenty years, two Kentucky Derby heroes completed the Remsen/Derby double and Pine Bluff notched a Remsen/Preakness double. 2005 Remsen victor Bluegrass Cat was second in the Derby and 2002 Remsen third place finisher Empire Maker won the Belmont. Get more Juvenile Stakes race selections on Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds website.

To Honor And Serve: Photo - Coglianese

This year, two highly regarded sons of the fantastic freshman sire Bernardini are scheduled to take on five other colts in the Remsen Stakes. The likely favorite To Honor and Serve (Bernardini – Pilfer, by Deputy Minister) has demolished his competition by over 12 lengths in his last two races, including the Grade 2 Nashua. To Honor and Serve has a pedigree that bodes well for next year’s Classics. Read more about him in our November 10 blog posting.

Buffum (inside) Photo: Coglianese

The other well-regarded colt who may go to the post as the second choice in the betting is Buffum (Bernardini – Storm Beauty, by Storm Cat). The Tom Albertrani trainee sat off of a swift :45 2/5 half mile and took the lead at the top of the stretch. He raced greenly in mid-stretch, ducking out from a left handed whip, but held off the second place finisher by a nose. Buffum is a half brother to multiple stakes winner Stormy West and brought to you by the family of Champion Sprinter Gold Beauty (dam of Dajur and Maplejinsky and grand-dam to Champion Older Mare Sky Beauty), Multiple Grade 1 winners Pine Island, Pleasant Home, and Tale of Ekati. Buffum‘s second, fourth and fifth dams are blue hens. Buffum had a strong five furlong breeze for this race.
Two horses that contested the Nashua Stakes will aim for better results in the Remsen. Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno – Ponche De Leona, by Ponche) offered no challenge to Honor And Serve in the Nashua, but his speed figures have been improving. He probably won’t want to go farther than 1 1/16 miles. His sire has a few winners at 1 1/8 miles, but produces mostly miler types. Mucho Macho Man’s dam and damsire are stakes winning sprinters.

Economic Summit - Photo: Coglianese

Economic Summit (Malibu Moon – Summit Lite, by Mt. Livermore) was a distant fifth in the Nashua after winning his maiden by a length. He has a stamina over speed pedigree and may find the distance a half-furlong too far. His dam is a half sister to Grade 3 turf winner Strategic Partner. Second dam Very Special Lite set a new course record for a mile in 1:33.60 at Keeneland. The graded stakes winning miler Two Step Salsa was produced by this distaff family.

Bandbox - Photo: Coglianese

Many eyes will be on Bandbox (Tapit – Empty The Bases, by Grand Slam). The pretty gray colt is undefeated and has won his three races by over ten lengths, including the Sleepy Hollow Stakes for state-breds. Bandbox will be stretching from a sprint to 1 1/8 miles, which could be within his range, but he probably won’t want to go much farther. Tapit has some Grade 2 winning colts, but his most talented offspring are fillies and he has only three stakes winners at 1 1/8 miles. Bandbox has no blacktype in the first two generations, but his third dam won a couple of stake races. Many of his dam’s half siblings made 10 or more starts.
The well-bred Mountain Town (Cape Town – Mountain Bird, by Mt. Livermore) was a distant second in the Champange Stakes (G-1) to eventual Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Uncle Mo. Mountain Town is a product of the Whitney family breeding program. His dam is a graded stakes placed half sister to Belmont Stakes winner Birdstone and Kentucky Oaks winner Bird Town his second dam Dear Birdie was the 2004 Broodmare of the Year. Mountain Town has worked well but his pedigree indicates that he’ll be better at shorter distances.
Pants On Fire (Jump Start – Cabo De Noche, by Cape Town) took three tries to win his maiden, but got the job done against softer company over a sloppy track at Delaware. The Kelly Breen trainee has a stamina over speed pedigree. His sire Jump Start, a well bred son of A.P. Indy, produced Grade 2 winners Rail Trip and Sir Whimsey. His offspring are generally best at a mile and farther. Cape Town generally gets sprinters, but his speed is tempered by the stamina influence of third damsire Bates Motel. Pants On Fire’s dam is a half sister to stakes winning sprinters Hatfield and Key Hunter. Pants On Fire’s speed figures have improved with every start.
Selections:
How the track is playing: So far, only two races have been held at the 1 1/8 mile distance at Aqueduct this meet. Both were won by pace setter/pressers on the rail, typical for this track.
To Honor And Serve has already bested two entrants and is the only graded stakes winner in the field. Mucho Man and Pants On Fire may try to press the pace while the rest sit in varying positions behind Bandbox may post the strongest threat to the top horse. Bandbox has stakes experience and his off the pace running style could help. His pedigree is borderline for this distance. Buffum will get plenty of attention off of his maiden win. His pedigree suggests that this distance might not be within his scope and he may be overbet. Mountain Town was no match for the best two year old colt in the nation, but meets a softer group here. He could also find the distance too far, but his stalking running style can help. Mucho Macho Man’s speed figures have improved with every race and he can move forward in his second start off of a brief layoff.
To Honor And Serve
Bandbox
Buffum
Mucho Macho Man - longshot

Weekend Update 11-20-10

Hollywood Premier

Premier Pegasus (Fusaichi Pegasus – Squall Linda, by Summer Squall) remained un-defeated in the Hollywood Prevue and will be the likely favorite for next month’s Cash Call Futurity. The half brother to Norfolk Stakes (G-1) victor Street Hero wired the field by 1 ½ lengths, getting the seven furlongs in 1:22.78.

 

By Street Cry, Street Hero was injured and retired after his two year old season and never had a chance to prove himself at longer distances. Premier Pegasus has a more speed-oriented pedigree than his older half-brother. At stud, his sire Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus gets stakes winners up to 1 1/8 miles, however he does have six turf stakes winners at 1 ¼ miles.

Premier Pegasus receives stamina from his first three damsires, yet his dam Squall Linda was a stakes placed sprinter who won or placed in 11 of 17 starts. She is a half sister to the stakes warrior Kohen With a K, who won 10 of 59 starts as a turf sprinter. Squall Linda has inbreeding to Lavendula, who is Squall Linda’s fourth dam. Lavendula was a precocious sprinter and won three of nine starts at age two. Lavendula produced Source Sucree, Squall Linda’s third dam and a stakes winner at 11 furlongs. Source Sucree is a half sister to the stallion Ambiorix who won from a mile to 1 ½ miles. Ambiorix was bred to Source Sucree’s daughter Giff-Gaff, a ¾ sister to the brilliant chef – de – race Turn To. An interesting note - Turn- To the grandsire of Halo. Halo is the second damsire of Fusaichi Pegasus.

Summer Squall

Premier Pegasus damsire Summer Squall is an excellent broodmare sire and works well with the Mr. Prospector sire line. There are six graded stakes winners based upon the Mr. Prospector/Summer Squall bloodline cross. Of those, only Seeking The Best, a turf miler in Japan has Mr. Prospector in her second generation, similar to Premier Pegasus.

Premier Pegasus’ second damsire The Axe II raced for five years, winning 15 of 38 starts. He won from six to 13 furlongs on the turf and retired sound. Going back another generation, Premier Pegasus’ third damsire Ambiorix raced in France and won stakes races from a mile to 1 ½ miles.

Despite the stamina farther back in his pedigree, one must also take into account Premier Pegasus’ pace setting running style. He will likely be at his best up to 1 1/6 miles, but could carry his speed 1 1/8 miles if unpressured on the lead, especially if traveling over the lawn. Premier Pegasus should be able to get the distance of the 1 1/16 Cash Call Futurity, but a protracted speed duel could be his undoing.

 

Jackpot!

Gourmet Dinner - Photo: Coady

Since its inception, the victors of the Delta Jackpot have been sprinter/milers. This year isn’t an exception. Gourmet Dinner (Trippi - Potluck Dinner, Pentelicus) invaded from Florida and the In Reality Stakes runner-up was virtually ignored in the betting, going to the gate at 20-1. The bay colt tried blinkers for the first time and relaxed off of the pace. He rewarded his connections with a strong sustained move down the stretch getting 1 1/6 miles in 1:45.23.

Gourmet Dinner has speed top and bottom in his pedigree. His sire and damsire are both descended from Mr. Prospector, who in this case, is a brilliant speed influence. Additionally, inbreeding to In Reality also lends speed to Gourmet Dinner.

Trippi - Photo: Coglianese

Gourmet Dinner’s sire Trippi was a seven furlong specialist, Vosburgh (G-1) over More Than Ready, but he also outclassed his rivals in the 1 1/8 mile Flamingo Stakes. At stud, Trippi transfer speed to his offspring. He has nine stakes winners at a mile and three winners at 1 1/8 miles.

Gourmet Dinner’s damsire Pentelicus was a multiple listed stakes winner at six furlongs. His daughters produce mostly sprinter/milers, however Pentelicus is the damsire of the graded stakes warrior Awesome Gem and Mecke Daughter, a Grade 1 stakes winner in Puerto Rico. Both have won at 1 ¼ miles.

Trippi has 13 offspring out of Pentelicus mares with nine starters and six winners. Gourmet Dinner is the only stakes winner to date.

Gourmet Dinner’s dam Potluck Dinner was unplaced in her only start, but has shined in the breeding shed. All six of her foals to race are winners and are durable runners. Her first foal, I’mroyalymecke’d raced 55 times and was stakes placed. She also produced stakes winner Gaston A She’s a half sister to the sprint stakes winners Lady Gin, Sea Of Green, and her half sister Almost Aprom Queen is the dam of 2010 Oak Leaf Stakes (G-1) winner Rigoletta.

Gourmet Dinner’s mid-pack running style should enable him to get two turns, although 1 1/8 miles might be out of his scope against top stakes runners. According to his trainer Steven Standridge, Gourmet Dinner will point to the one mile Holy Bull Stakes in January at Gulfstream Park.

The New Derby Rules – Does Uncle Mo Fit The Profile?

Over the last twenty years, colts that have been victorious in the Kentucky Derby have followed a fairly specific training pattern. The majority of the Derby winners from 1990 – 2010 made their initial start between June and October and won their maiden between August and November. Only two horses, Fusaichi Pegasus and Monarchos, didn’t win their maiden race until the following January. All except six contenders in twenty years have run in a stakes race as a two year old. Over the last eight years, all except three Derby heroes had a high cruising speed and sat in the first flight of horses. Of those, four had pedigrees considered borderline to get 1 ¼ miles.

Street Sense

Until 2007, the Derby champs started their three year old season in January or February and participated in three or four prep races before the big dance. Things changed in 2007 when Street Sense didn’t start his year until March and had only two prep races. Street Sense had a good two year old foundation. He had five starts and an Eclipse Award under his girth and he could rely on the purse earned from the lion’s share of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

The following year, Big Brown only made one start as a juvenile and didn’t start his journey on the Derby trail until March. Like Street Sense, Big Brown had only two prep races before the Kentucky Derby. Following in the hoof prints of Street Sense, Mine that Bird and Super Saver participated in two races before entering the Derby starting gate. Mine That Bird had his first start in February; Super Saver didn’t make his season debut until March. Of the three, only Big Brown earned his way into the Kentucky Derby off of his three year old earnings. His connections took a gamble and it paid off. A lesser horse would have been excluded from the starting gate.

There’s no question that Uncle Mo is currently the most talented colt of his generation. Besides locking up the Juvenile Championship with his decisive win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Uncle Mo gave an impressive display of speed and determination in the Champagne Stakes. Even though he didn’t beat a very accomplished field, Uncle Mo did it in style. His final time of 1:34.51 was a fifth off of the stakes record, and he tied Seattle Slew for the second fastest running of the Champagne. Unlike Seattle Slew, Uncle Mo fought with rivals every step of the way and showed an extra gear pulling away from an exhausted field.

Let’s take a closer look at this precocious colt’s pedigree.

Indian Charlie - Photo: Tony Leonard

His sire Indian Charlie won the Santa Anita Derby at 1 1/8 miles, but in the 1988 Kentucky Derby, weakened in the final furlong and finished third behind his stable-mate Real Quiet. Indian Charlie raced only five times and was retired after the Kentucky Derby due to injury.

 Unfortunately, In Excess, Indian Charlie’s sire, is prone to getting swift but often fragile sprinter/miler types and Indian Charlie is passing these genes along to his progeny. Six of Indian Charlie’s stakes wining progeny have won at 1 1/8 miles, but only Indian Charlie’s daughter Fleet Indian has been successful at 1 ¼ miles. Victorious in the Personal Ensign (G-1) and Delaware Handicap (G-2), Fleet Indian proved that her achievements at the top level of racing was no fluke.

Playa Maya

Uncle Mo’s stakes placed dam Play Maya was in the money in all six starts with earnings of $81,521. The versatile mare won over dirt, turf and placed over off going. She was the only foal produced by the Dixieland Band mare Dixie Slippers. Dixie Slippers achieved three career wins as a sprinter. She’s a half sister to Federico Tesio Stakes (G-3) winner Woods of Windsor and two stakes placed sprinters.

Arch, Uncle Moe’s damsire, won the 1 1/8 mile Fayette Stakes in 1:53.87 setting a new track record at Keeneland. He also took the 1 ¼ mile Super Derby and earned $480,969 in seven starts. At stud, the son of Kris S. is passing along his stamina. His best progeny are Horse of the Year contender Blame, Canadian Female Turf Champion Arravale, English Champion Les Arcs, South African Champion Sprinter Overreaching and multiple Grade 1 winner Pine Island. Both Blame and Pine Island are successful at 1 ¼ miles.

Arch - Photo: Claiborne Farm

Arch is a relatively new broodmare sire. His 70 producing daughters have produced 32 foals with 21 starters and eight stakes winners. Most are miler-types, but Arch’s grandson Blue Exit won the Prix Matchem (Fr. Listed) at 2000 meters (about 1 ¼ miles) over turf. Arch’s pedigree and record at stud indicate that his daughters could pass along stamina influences but it is too soon to make a definitive factual statement that Arch will be a stamina-oriented damsire.

Uncle Moe’s second damsire Dixieland Band was the damsire of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile/Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense and five other racers that were successful at 1 ¼ miles. Dixieland Band’s daughters passed along versatility to their offspring with the sire of the progeny often determining how far they would run.

Uncle Mo

Uncle Mo has shown that he is fast, precocious and has the will to win, but his pedigree appears borderline for getting the Kentucky Derby distance. Only time will tell if his talent can deepen with maturity and if he can stay abreast of rapidly developing late bloomers who should relish 1 ¼ miles and beyond. According to trainer Todd Pletcher, Uncle Mo will enjoy some down time in Ocala, Florida before joining the racing stable at Palm Meadows, Florida. Uncle Mo is slated to have two prep races before the Derby.

High cruising speed, borderline pedigree, two starts before the big dance. Uncle Mo fits the profile of a modern Kentucky Derby winner and could become the second horse to take Breeders’ Cup Juvenile/Kentucky Derby stakes.

In the Hoofprints of a Kentucky Derby Contender

Payson Park Training Center

Like snowbirds, promising two year old race horses head south in the fall, usually after the Breeders’ Cup. Many wind up at Palm Meadows Training Center in Delray Beach, Florida or farther north at Payson Park in Indiantown.

Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds will follow the up-and-coming colt To Honor and Serve throughout the winter and spring to give horse fans an idea of the intense preparation needed to get a horse through the Triple Crown prep races. Since To Honor and Serve is still in New York, we’ll review his bloodlines and determine if his pedigree indicates if he can go 1 ¼ miles and longer.

To Honor and Serve as a yearling

To Honor and Serve began his life on March 18, 2008 and was bred by Twin Creeks Farm, Larry Byer and Rancho San Miguel in Kentucky’s bluegrass region. The good-looking colt fetched $250,000 as a 2008 Keeneland November weanling and commanded $575,000 from Live Oak Plantation as a Keeneland September Yearling.

Sent to Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, To Honor and Serve began his career on August 4 in a seven furlong dirt maiden race at Saratoga. He found the distance a little too shot, but managed a sharp second place finish to the well regarded Astrology, who would later capture the Iroquois Stakes (G-3) at Churchill. Stretching out to 1 1/16 miles on October 2, To Honor and Serve made short work of a large field of maidens.

To Honor and Serve Maiden Win October 2, 2010

A month later while all eyes were watching Uncle Mo defeat a nice group of colts in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs, To Honor and Serve was quietly crushing an average field of two year olds in the Nashua Stakes (G-2) at Aqueduct. In the Nashua, To Honor and Serve went to the lead and never looked back. He ran a mile in 1.35.86, getting the last quarter in 23.76, while under a mild hand ride.

 Bill Mott, the bay colt’s trainer, elected to keep To Honor and Serve out of the Breeders’ Cup because of the colt’s light racing experience.
 

Nashua Stakes (G-2)

Bernardini

To Honor and Serve has a pedigree that bodes well for next year’s Classics. He is by freshman sire Bernardini out of the Deputy Minister mare Pilfer. Bernardini, a son of A.P. Indy, raced for only one year and made it count. He had the speed to win the Withers’ Stakes at a mile, the Preakness Stakes at 1 3/16 miles and proved himself to be the top three year old with victories in the Jim Dandy at 1 1/8 miles and Travers Stakes at 1 ¼ miles. In the fall, Bernardini defeated his elders in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, but his racing schedule caught up to him in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, where he finished second to Invasor. 

 At stud, Bernardini is passing his class and talent on to his offspring. Besides To Honor and Serve, the first crop sire’s progeny includes Group 1 winner Biondetti, Grade 1 winner AZ Warrior and graded/group stakes placed Theyskens’ Theory and Stay Thirsty.

Deputy Minster, Honor and Serve’s dam sire, won multiple graded stakes from five furlongs to 1 1/8 miles and was second in the Meadowlands Handicap (G-1) at 1 ¼ miles. In 1981, he earned acclaim as Horse of the Year and Champion Two Year Old Male in Canada, and Champion Two Year old Male in the USA.

Deputy Minister - Photo: Tony Leonard

Deputy Minster failed to win past 1 1/8 miles, but many of his offspring didn’t have distance limitations. He produced Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Awesome Again, Kentucky Oaks heroine Keeper Hill, Belmont Stakes winner Touch Gold and Travers Stakes winner Deputy Commander. The remarkable fillies Go For Wand Open Mind and precocious colt Dehere captured Eclipse Awards as Juveniles.

Deputy Minster was a very good sire, toping the leader board in 1997-1998, but he really distinguished himself as a broodmare sire and captured leading broodmare sire honors in 2007. The daughters of Deputy Minster have produced 82 stakes winners, including Belmont Stakes winners Rages to Riches, Jazil and Savara, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Halfbridled, Horse of the Year Curlin, turf star and top sire Redattore.

To Honor and Serve ‘s dam Pilfer won the 1 1/16 mile Go For Wand Stakes and placed in the Instant Racing Breeders' Cup Stakes at a mile. She raced three years with an overall record of 11-3-2-0 and earnings of $126,360. Pilfer made two starts as a juvenile, wining and placing respectively. She won one sprint, and two routes including a win over an off track. Pilfer is a half sister to the swift multiple stakes winning sprinter India. To Honor and Serve’s second dam was a stakes winner and finished second in the Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes.

To Honor and Serve’s distaff family 4-r is one of the most prolific in the breed. His fourth dam Java Moon is a blue hen (superior female) and her daughters have produced Memories of Silver and her daughter, recent Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf placed runner Winter Memories. Other branches of this family have given us Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos, international sires Dynaformer and Runaway Groom, and the great Zenyatta.

To Honor and Serve - Photo: Coglianese

To Honor and Serve is being pointed to the Remsen Stakes at 1 1/8 miles on November 27. Afterward, he will likely join trainer Bill Mott’s stable at Payson Park for the winter. On paper, To Honor and Serve has a shot to become a legitimate Triple Crown contender and so far has proven to have the talent to be competitive in next year’s prep races. Starting in December, Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds will follow To Honor and Serve’s progress at Payson Park with videos and weekly reports throughout the winter. Until then, we will post weekly reviews of other promising juveniles that may wind up on the Triple Crown Trail.

Breeders’ Cup Picks for Friday, November 5, 2010

The Breeders’ Cup has produced some spectacular displays throughout the last 26 years, many of them created at Churchill Downs. This year should prove to be no different. We all know the big names set to defend their titles, but there are a few races where the long-shots can upset the applecart or mess up the exotics. After long hours of research, studying the past performances until the numbers blurred together and banging my head against the keyboard for clarification, I’ve come up with a list of my picks. Of course, a morning line underdog, or horse in this case, could drop to 4-1 by post time.

MARATHON

Prince Will I Am – Getting good right now and is 3-1-1 over the surface.

Awesome Gem – How can’t you like him. He just keeps grinding away.

Alcomo - Very competitive lately, can sit off the pace and make the first move.

Precision Break – Bred to like the dirt, can’t discount the Euros.

Longshot - Gabriel’s Hill – appears to be lone speed. Leparoux is crafty enough to slow them down and steal the race.

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

Winter Memories – the deserving favorite, impossible to overlook the pretty gray/roan filly.

Tale Untold – lost two heartbreakers at 7 furlongs, a mile should be just right for her.

Fancy Point – Very well-bred filly will take them as far as she can. Cutting back in distance could make her

dangerous on the front. Plus she and Winter Memories won in identical times over firm turf.

Kathmanblu – Speed figures have improved in every race and she gets a strong jock in Leparoux.

Longshot - Flood Plain – lightly raced and a tough post, but attracts one of the hottest jocks in Europe.

FILLY & MARE SPRINT

Evening Jewel – In the money in all but one start. Have to love her price and she almost won the KY Oaks.

Rightly So – In the money in all of her starts. Her front-running style has to overcome a tough outside post.

Switch – Beaten only ½ length by Zenyatta, her speed figures are improving and has the pedigree to like the

dirt.

Moonturn Misy – She’s fast and improving…and 30-1.

JUVENILE FILLIES

AZ Warrior – Has the breeding to love two turns and has given indications that she can sit off of the pace.

Awesome Feather – Can’t argue with undefeated. She can also sit off of the pace.

R Heat Lightning – Grade 1 winner is bred for dirt. She regressed a little last time out, but can rebound here.

Theyskens’ Theory – Stevie Wonderboy’s little half sis should love the dirt and distance.

Longshot – Harlan’s Ruby - She’s been working very well, one of the few who made up ground over conveyer

belt surfaces at Saratoga and Keeneland.

FILLY & MARE TURF

Midday – Hard to see beyond the favorite.

Harmonious – There’s something about John Shirreffs and fillies.

Red Desire – Strong effort last time out should set her up here.

Longshot - Keertana – Her daddy dead-heated in the BC Turf. This filly likes the CD lawn and has been in the money 18 of 20 lifetime starts.

DISTAFF

Blind Luck – She just keeps going and going and…

Unrivaled Belle – Pretty gray filly has been out of the money only once in her career.

Havre De Grace – She’ll get first jump on Blind Luck and can be right there, but drew a poor post position for

her running style.

Life At Ten – Might get into a duel with Malibu Prayer, which will soften her up.

Longshot - Acoma – Two for two over the track and can close into a hot pace. Her best lat pace speed figures

have come over the Churchill surface.

2010 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Races – Contender Profiles

2010 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Contender Profiles

On this blog and the Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds main website are profiles of the entrants for all four of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile races. The profiles contain straightforward pedigree and surface analysis and how the particular horse may do against the others in the race. All links open another window to each horse's race and pedigree charts, race videos, latest news and other features.

This year, six of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly entrants will confront a dirt racing surface for the first time in their brief careers. Some have the breeding to enjoy the dirt while others will want no part of it. The field is fairly contentious and includes four Grade 1 winners, A Grade 3 winner, Graded stakes placed runners and an undefeated filly.

AWESOME FEATHER (Awesome of Course – Precious Feather, by Gone West)

AwesomeFeather - Photo: Jim Lisa

Pedigree: Awesome of Course is a fairly obscure Florida-based sire and he won only a couple of minor sprint stakes races. He is a half brother to stakes winners Imperfect World, Monsieur Cat, and the dam of Graded stakes winner Krypton. Awesome Feather’s dam Precious Feather was a multiple stakes winner and her second dam Last Feather was a Group 3 winner in France. Third dam Quill was Champion Two Year Old Filly and blue hen.
Surface: Awesome Feather is undefeated over fast dirt. She hasn’t encountered an off track, but her pedigree indicates that it shouldn’t bother her.
Outlook: Awesome Feather is undefeated and basically untested. She is only the third filly to sweep the Florida Stallion Stakes series in Florida and has won all of her races by a combined 20 lengths. She’s won on the lead, pressing the pace and from off of the pace. The “who did she beat?” question comes into play here, but her winning times are consistent with the rest of this field.


A Z WARRIOR (Bernardini - Carson Jen by Carson City)

AZWarrior - Photo: Coglianese

Pedigree: Bernardini’s offspring have been surprisingly precocious but have shown the quality one would expect from a stallion with his talent and pedigree. A Z Warrior’s half siblings EZ Warrior and JZ Warrior are multiple stakes winning sprint specialists. Both are by sprint sires, but AZ Warrior may want to travel farther than her siblings. Their dam Carson Jen is a multiple stakes placed sprinter.
Surface: AZ Warrior won over Cushion Track, was so-so on the Polytrack and gave her best performance over the fast Belmont dirt. Her sire has produced winners over the off going.
Outlook: In the Darley Debutante, AZ Warrior was a fast closing second to Wickedly Perfect over Polytrack, which isn’t A Z Warrior’s best surface. She was flattered by Wickedly Perfect’s win over a nice group of stakes fillies in the Darley Alcibiades at Keeneland. A Z Warrior came back in Frizette, where she galloped away from R Heat Lightning, the recent Spinaway winner. A Z Warrior has the pedigree, experience and ability to be a serious contender in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.

BELIEVE IN A. P. (A.P. Indy - I Believe in You, by Pleasant Tap)
Pedigree: Believe in A. P. has strong stamina and dirt attributes throughout her pedigree. She is by Breeders’ Cup Classic Champ A.P. Indy and out of a dam by the second place finisher in the same race. Believe in A. P.‘s dam was in the money in all four starts and won the Hollywood Starlet, but her promising career was cut short due to injury.
Surface: Successful over fast dirt, hasn’t encountered an off track but has breeding to appreciate the mud.
Outlook: After butting heads with fillies at Saratoga and Belmont over the summer, Believe in A. P. was a blowout winner at Philadelphia Park. Like many of A.P. Indy’s progeny, she probably needed time to mature, but this is a tough spot for a repeat win. Keep an eye on her next year.

DELIGHTFUL MARY (Limehouse – Deputy's Delight, by French Deputy)

Delightful Mary

Pedigree: Delightful Mary has a sprinter/miler oriented dirt pedigree. Limehouse is a multiple graded stakes winner from five to nine furlongs. The majority of his offspring are sprinters. Delightful Mary is a half sister to the multiple graded stakes winning warrior Delightful Kiss. Her second dam was also a stakes winner.
Surface: Untested over dirt.
Outlook: After trouncing the competition by over 11 lengths in her first two starts, Delightful Mary couldn’t catch a loose on the lead Wyomia, who is entered in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Delightful Mary may be talented, but she has a lot to prove against top class competition that will set faster fractions than she’s encountered.

Harlans Ruby  Photo  Candice Chavez

HARLAN’S RUBY (Harlan's Holiday - Smiling Eyes, by Saint Ballado)
Pedigree: Harlan’s Holiday’s offspring are sprinter milers and Smiling Eyes is a full sister to the G-3 stakes winning sprinter Popular. Harlan’s Ruby has already won at 1 1/16 miles but may not want to go much farther.
Surface: Harlan’s Ruby is a winner over turf and placed over the Polytrack at Keeneland. She was unplaced in her only dirt attempt.
Outlook: Harlan’s Ruby was beaten by over nine lengths in her sole dirt attempt at Churchill. She was no match for Wickedly Perfect in the Alcibiades but finished second, ahead of some stakes winning fillies. Her stalking running style could help, but she’s appears to be ducking the stronger Turf division.

INDIAN GRACEY (Indian Ocean – Miz Betty Grace, by Matty G)
Pedigree: Indian Gracey has a sprinter/miler pedigree with dirt influences. Her sire is well-bred but hasn’t been very promising at stud. His offspring are sprinter/miler types and he has yet to get a stakes winner in two crops. Indian Gracey’s dam is a half sister to a couple of stakes-placed runners, one of whom produced Grace 2 winning sprinter Warbling.
Surface: Untested over dirt.
Outlook: Indian Gracey has been in the money in all four starts. She finally won her maiden in her third start after stretching out to a mile. After leading the pack in the Oakleaf Stakes (G-1) , she tired but still finished third, beaten only 1 ½ lengths. She’s a talented filly who should move forward over dirt, but she’ll have plenty of company on the front end.

IZSHELEGAL (Macho Uno – Unkatzable, by A.P. Indy)
Pedigree: Izshelegal has a pedigree to appreciate dirt and a route of ground. By Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Macho Uno, Izshelegal’s distaff family is a long list of whose who and includes multiple graded stakes winners Katz Me if You Can and Cuddles as her first and second dams. Northern Afleet and the classy Tap to Music are also part of this family.
Surface: Untested over dirt.
Outlook: Izshelegal is still a maiden after four starts. She stared her ambitious career with a second place finish in the Landaluce Stakes, but has been off the board against Grade 1 winners in her last two attempts. She has a one-run style and should enjoy the switch to dirt, but she may be up against it class wise. She might be worth a longshot look.

JORDY Y (Congrats – Debt Free, by Fly So Free) *Second preference Juvenile Fillies Turf

Jordy Y - Photo: Crystal Jones

Pedigree: Congrats is the leading first crop sire and has several stakes horses. His offspring are winning over all surfaces and distances. Jordy Y is a half sister to stakes winner Cape Time and stakes placed Mississippi Hippie. Her dam is a half sister to the graded stakes winning sprinter Alke; stakes winners Debit My Account and Red and Gold.
Surface: Jordy Y has spent her career running on Polytrack. She has a strong dirt pedigree and should do well over the surface.
Outlook: Jordy Y tried to make up ground over the speed favoring Keeneland track in the Alcibiades in a futile effort. She was only beaten 2 lengths and finished third. Her off the pace style and experience at the race distance will help her in the Breeders’ Cup Fillies. Coincidently, her connections won this race in 2006 at Churchill with Dreaming of Anna, who prepped for the race over the Woodbine Polytrack.

Joyful Victory - Photo: Eclipse Sportswire

JOYFUL VICTORY (Tapit – Wild Lucy Black, by Wild Again)
Pedigree: Tapit, a son of Pulpit, is known for producing classy fillies. Joyful Victory has a very modest but durable distaff family and one half sibling has raced 67 times.
Surface: Successful over fast dirt.
Outlook: After winning her debut, Joyful Victory found herself in the deep end of the pool facing winners in the Frizette (G-1). She was a steady third all the way around, beaten by over three lengths. She can move forward off of that race, but this field appears too strong for her current form.

R HEAT LIGHTNING (Trippi – Yellow Heat, by Gold Fever)

R Heat Lightning - Photo: Coglianese

Pedigree: R Heat Lightning’s sire and damsire are sons of Forty Niner. R Heat Lightning is a full sister to stakes placed Hot Trip. Her dam won three of five starts as a sprinter.
Surface: R Heat Lightning is successful over a fast dirt track. She hasn’t encountered an off track. Trippi’s offspring are average in the mud.
Outlook: The dominant four length winner of the Spinaway Stakes, R Heat Lightning couldn’t catch A Z Warrior in the Frizette, but finished up well to place second, by 1 ¾ lengths. She has the ability to sit off of the pace and could rebound in this race.

Soundwave - Photo: Eclipse Sportswire

SOUNDWAVE (Friends Lake - Echo Echo Echo, by Eastern Echo)
Pedigree: Soundwave has a dirt sprinter’s pedigree. Her sire Friends Lake never won past a mile and hasn’t sired a graded stakes winner. Most of his progeny are sprinters, but he gets the occasional two turn winner. Soundwave is a half sister to the stakes winning Letgomyecho and another half sister produced last year’s Sapling winner, Western Smoke. Her dam is a stakes placed sprinter.
Surface: A winner over a fast track.
Outlook: Soundwave has won three of four starts, including the Monmouth Park NATC Futurity. Her only defeat came in her debut over the Churchill dirt. She will try to stretch her speed while contesting the lead in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.

TELL A KELLY (Tapit – Evrobi, by Tabasco Cat)

Tell A Kelly - Photo: Benoit

Pedigree: Tapit, a son of Pulpit, gave us Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly winner Stardom Bound, Juvenile Fillies Turf winner Larah and Alabama Stakes winner Careless Jewel. Tell a Kelly’s damsire won the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. He is the damsire of Florida Derby winner Ice Box (by Pulpit) and last year’s Brooklyn Handicap (G-2) winner Eldaafer (by A.P. Indy), a multiple winner at 1 ½ miles. Adding more stamina to the mix is Tell a Kelly’s second damsire Alydar. Tell A Kelly’s dam is a half sister to an Irish stakes placed runner.
Surfaces: A Grade 1 winner over Polytrack, Tell A Kelly is also Grade 1 placed over Cushion Track. Her sire and damsire have dirt pedigrees, but Tell A Kelly’s dam won or was in the money in half of her turf starts and none of her dirt attempts.
Outlook: Tell A Kelly was an easy 4 ½ length winner of the Darley Debutant over Wickedly Perfect, but offered no resistance to Rigoletta in the closing stages of the Oak Leaf Stakes in her first attempt at two turns. Now that she has experience at the distance, Tell A Kelly should be fitter and could rebound in the B.C. Fillies.

THEYSKENS' THEORY (Bernardini - Heat Lightning, by Summer Squall) *First Preference Juvenile Fillies

Theyskens' Theory - Photo: PA

Pedigree: Theyskens' Theory has one of the best pedigrees in the field. Her Champion sire is getting winners over all surfaces. Theyskens' Theory is a half sister to Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Stevie Wonderboy. Her dam is a half sister to the Group 2winner Fair Judgment and her second dam Mystical Mood won the Schuylerville. Theyskens' Theory has inbreeding to the blue hen Weekend Surprise through the half brothers A.P. Indy (Bernardini’s sire) and Summer Squall.
Surface: Has won over good to soft turf. Untested over dirt
Outlook: Theyskens' Theory is a Group 3 winner and was 1 ½ lengths shy of a Group 1 win in the Meon Valley Mile. Her pedigree is geared more towards dirt, but this talented filly appears to be flexible. She has experience, class and should take to the dirt. Theyskens' Theory can be a threat wherever she’s placed.

2010 Juvenile Fillies Turf Contender Profiles

Since it’s inception in 2008, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly Turf has been won by U.S. based horses. This year’s field doesn’t appear as deep as the previous fields, but there are a few Grade 3 winners and a couple that are Group 1 or 2 placed. The only undefeated contestant, Winter Memories, is also the likely favorite to win the race.

ALLURE D'AMOUR (Giant’s Causeway - Salut d'Amour, by Danehill Dancer)
Pedigree: Allure D’Amour has a strong turf pedigree top and bottom. Giant’s Causeway is an international sire. Allure D’Amour’s dam was a stakes winner in England and is a half sister to an English Group 3 winner. damsire was 1995 Irish high-weighted 2yo male. Second damsire is the legendary Sadler’s Wells.
Surface: Successful over yielding turf, hasn’t encountered firm going.
Outlook: Allure D’Amour is a recent (10/17) maiden winner. She has only two starts under her girth and while she has potential talent, she’s facing a more accomplished and experienced field.

Arch Support - Photo: Candice Chavez

ARCH SUPPORT (Arch – Two Ninety Jones, by Sir Harry Lewis)
Pedigree: By the same sire as Blame, Arch Support’s pedigree has predominately turf and stamina bloodlines. Her damsire, a son of the great Alleged, won the 10 furlong Irish Derby (G-1) and was an excellent broodmare sire. Arch Support is a half sister to the stakes placed sprinter Bounding. Her dam was a listed stakes winner and placed in several stakes, all over turf.
Surface: Successful over firm turf and was second over yielding ground.
Outlook: Arch Support was 5 ¼ lengths second to Winter Memories when they crossed the finish line in the Miss Grillo Stakes and will met a tough group of fillies in this race. Arch Support should improve off of her last race, but might not be up to beating this group. She should improve with maturity and distance.


DOS LUNAS (Hennessy – Mi Luna Nueva, by El Prado) (AE List)
Pedigree: Dos Lunas has a sprinter/miler pedigree. Her dam is a stakes placed half sister to the graded stakes winning turf warriors Kim Loves Bucky and Transduction Gold.
Surface: Dos Lunas won her debut over the firm Churchill Turf and has and placed over yielding turf.
Outlook: Dos Lunas has won or placed in her two turf attempts. After dismal experiments over dirt and Polytrack, she finally gets back to her preferred surface. Of concern is her class level. She finished second in a listed stakes but has been unplaced against graded stakes company. She could be an interesting longshot.

FANCY POINT (Point Given – Fancy Clancy, by Rahy)

Fancy Point - Photo: Coglianese

Pedigree: Fancy Point has a stellar distaff family full of turf stars. She is a half sister to stakes placed Powerchord. Her dam Fancy Clancy is a half sister to the Grade 1 winning sire Joyeux Dancer, his stakes winning full brother Fabuleux Dancer, and their full sister Danseur Fabuleux, the dam of European Champion, Arazi and his Group 1 winning half brother Noverre. Fancy Clancy is also a half sister to Grade 3 winner Doubles Partner, Grand dam of Group 1 winner Eagles Cafe and his multiple Grade 1 winning half sister Let. Fancy Point’s third dam Native Partner and fourth dam Dinner Partner are blue hens.
Surface: Fancy Point is a winner over firm turf and placed over yielding turf.
Outlook: After wiring the field in the PG Johnson Stakes, Fancy Point tired slightly after making the pace in the Miss Grillo to finish third behind Winter Memories over the boggy Belmont lawn. Her speed figures still improved and she should bounce back in this race. Fancy Point has been on the lead in her last two starts, and will have company up front. The cut back in distance won’t be a problem.

FLOOD PLAIN (Orpen - Delta, by Zafonic)
Pedigree: Flood Plain has a strong turf oriented pedigree. Her sire and damsire were Champion Two Year Olds in Ireland and Europe. Her dam was a stakes placed turf miler and second dam is a half sister to the multiple stakes winners Eltish and Forest Gazelle.
Surface: Successful over good-soft turf. Hasn’t encountered firm going.
Outlook: After winning her maiden at seven furlongs in her first attempt, Flood Plain took on Listed stakes competition and finished second to an unbeaten filly. She does have experience in large fields but she’s taking on a strong group of fillies in only her third start. The extra furlong should pose not problem.

Forest Legend -  Photo: Candice Chavez

FOREST LEGEND (Forest Camp – Silver Comic, by Silver Hawk) (AE List)
Pedigree: Forest Legend is a half sister to Grade 2 turf miler Silver Reunion. Their dam won half of her 8 starts over the lawn, including the Mrs. Revere Stakes (G-2). She’s a half sister to multiple G-3 winners Comic Strip, Lucayan Prince and Sam Davis stakes winner Akiba. The third and fourth dams were European stakes winners.
Surface: Winner over firm turf, hasn’t encountered off going.
Outlook: Forest Legend won her debut over the Ellis Park turf in August but was unplaced when tossed into Grade 1 stakes competition in the Alcibiades over the Keeneland Polytrack. Despite the Keeneland conveyor belt, she was one of the only ones making up ground at the end and passed the rest on the gallop out. Like some others in here, she’s basically a maiden taking on more experienced fillies who have proven their form.

JORDY Y (Congrats – Debt Free, by Fly So Free) * First Preference Juvenile Fillies

Jordy Y -  Photo: Crystal Jones

Pedigree: Jordy Y has a versatile pedigree with some turf attributes. Congrats is the leading first crop sire and has produced several stakes horses. His offspring are winning over all surfaces and distances. Jordy Y is a half sister to stakes winner Cape Time and stakes placed Mississippi Hippie. Her dam is a half sister to the graded stakes winning sprinter Alke, stakes winners Debit My Account and Red and Gold. Jordy Y’s second damsire Crow won the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr. Gr.1).
Surface: Jordy Y has spent her career running on Polytrack. She has a flexible pedigree and could take to the turf.
Outlook: Jordy Y tried to make up ground over the speed favoring Keeneland track in the Alcibiades in a futile effort. She was only beaten 2 lengths and finished third. Her off the pace style and experience at the race distance will help her in the Breeders’ Cup Fillies. Coincidently, her connections won this race in 2006 at Churchill with Dreaming of Anna, who prepped for the race over the Woodbine turf.

Kathmanblu - Photo: Coady

KATHMANBLU (Bluegrass Cat - Abba Gold, by Devil’s Bag)
Pedigree: Bluegrass Cat is #2 on the First Crop Sires’ List and Kathmanblu is his first winner over turf. Kathmanblu’s dam was a stakes placed dirt sprinter and a half sister to Grade 1 winner Friendly Michelle. At first glance, Kathmanblu has primarily a dirt pedigree. Her sire is proving to be very versatile, getting winners over every surface. Her damsire is a full brother to the known turf influence Saint Ballado. Devil’s Bag was a Champion Juvenile and at stud he produced winners over dirt and turf.
Surface: Kathmanblu is a winner over firm turf at a mile. She hasn’t tried good or yielding turf.
Outlook: After winning her maiden gong a mile on the lawn, Kathmanblu came back in the PG Johnson Stakes to gain second place, closing to finish 1 ½ lengths from the winner, Fancy Point. Kathmanblu followed up with an impressive four length win in the JPMorgan Chase Jessamine Stakes at Keeneland. The field in that race wasn’t particularly strong and she’ll be taking on a more competitive group in the Juvenile Filly Turf.

MORE THAN REAL (More Than Ready – Miss Seffens, by Dehere)
Pedigree: Sire More Than Ready has become a leading sire in Australia. More Than Real’s dam was a stakes winning dirt sprinter and her second dam was also a stakes winner.
Surface: Successful over firm lawn, placed over good ground.
Outlook: More Than Real was a fast closing second to New Normal, beaten 1 ½ lengths in her graded stakes debut in the one mile Natalma (G-3). Like some others, she’s lightly raced, but talented with a flexible running style.


NINA FEVER (Borrego – Impact Now, by Major Impact) (AE List)
Pedigree: Nina Fever was the first winner for her freshman sire. Although Nina Fever’s dam was sprinter over dirt, Impact Now’s half sister was graded stakes placed over turf. Nina Fever has other strong turf bloodlines through her sire, who is descended from the premiere stallion Saddler’s Wells and her damsire Major Impact is a son of English/Irish Champion Roberto. Nina Fever’s second dam won the Sorority Stakes (G-3) and Arlington Washington Futurity (G-2) as a two year old.
Surface: Successful over firm turf.
Outlook: Nina Fever won her only start over turf and has been successful over Polytrack. She’s recently been running against $30,000 claimers at Keeneland.

QUIET OASIS (Oasis Dream - Silent Heir, by Sunday Silence)
Pedigree: By a Group 1 winning turf sprinter out of a mare by Champion Sunday Silence, Quiet Oasis has a classic speed over stamina pedigree. She’s a half sister to a Group 3 winner and her second dam is a ¾ sister to Champion New Approach.
Surface: Placed over soft turf.
Outlook: Quiet Oasis tried winners in a Group 3 Stakes over the lawn after a winning debut on Polytrack. She was stuck on the inside most of the way and never got into the clear. She hung slightly but finished fourth, only a length behind the winner in the seven furlong race. She could move forward off of that race and prefer firm ground, but may not have the class to fit here.

SILENT JOY (Kitten’s Joy – Silent Emotion, by Ghazi) (AE List)
Pedigree: Silent Joy has a turf oriented pedigree. She’s a half sister to the multiple turf stakes winner Unspoken Word, however her full brother Keith’s Kitten has only one win in six attempts. Her turf stakes winning dam is a half sister to the dam of the turf sprinter Cannonball and her second dam was also a stakes winner.
Surface: Winner over firm lawn, unplaced on yielding ground.
Outlook: Silent Joy won a turf sprint at first asking but showed nothing in the Miss Grillo Stakes. She shortens up, but may not have the ability to deal with this strong group of fillies.

TALE UNTOLD (Tale of the Cat – Bank on Her, by Rahy)
Pedigree: This filly has a sprinter/miler pedigree and could be capable over dirt as well as turf. Tale Untold is a half sister to turf stakes winner I’m in Love. There isn’t much black type (stakes winners) in her first two generations, however, Tale Untold’s fourth and fifth dams Intriguing and Glamour are blue hens and Tale Untold descends from the great mare La Troienne.
Surface: Tale Untold is a winner over Polytrack and has experience over good and yielding lawn.
Outlook: Tale Untold won sprinting over the Kempton Polytrack, but has lost her last two races by a scant nose sprinting seven furlongs over the turf. She beat Together by a neck in her last race and could benefit by the extra furlong here.

TOGETHER (Galileo - Shadow Song, by Pennekamp)

Together - Photo: Racing Post

Pedigree: By one of Sadler’s Wells best sons at stud and from the female family that produced Kentucky Derby winner Bold Forbes, Together is a half sister to French Gr. 1 winner Jan Vermeer. Typical of many well-bred European horses, she has inbreeding to the blue hen Lalun. Together has a solid turf pedigree.
Surface: Together is effective over good turf and just missed in her last two races by a neck over soft ground. She hasn’t caught a firm turf course, but should really excel over the going.
Outlook: Together has been running with the best fillies England and Ireland has to offer and she’s won or been in the money in all but one start in her career. She is the strongest European representative in the race and could be the first European winner of the Juvenile Filly Turf.

THEYSKENS' THEORY (Bernardini - Heat Lightning, by Summer Squall) *First Preference Juvenile Fillies
Pedigree: Theyskens' Theory has one of the best pedigrees in the field. Her Champion sire is getting winners over all surfaces. Theyskens' Theory is a half sister to Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Stevie Wonderboy. Her dam is a half sister to the Group 2winner Fair Judgment and her second dam Mystical Mood won the Schuylerville. Theyskens' Theory has inbreeding to the blue hen Weekend Surprise through the half brothers A.P. Indy (Bernardini’s sire) and Summer Squall. She receives strong turf influences through her second damsire Roberto.
Surface: Has won over good to soft turf. Untested over firm lawn.
Outlook: Theyskens' Theory is a Group 3 winner and was 1 ½ lengths shy of a Group 1 win in the Meon Valley Mile. Her pedigree is geared more towards dirt, but this talented filly appears to be flexible. She has experience, class and can be a threat in either race.

Winter Memories - Photo: Coglianese

WINTER MEMORIES (El Prado- Memories of Silver, by Silver Hawk)
Pedigree: Winter Memories has a strong turf pedigree and should be proficient up to 1 1/8 miles and possibly beyond. Her breeding is similar to multiple graded stakes winner Asi Siempre, who is by El Prado out of a Silver Hawk mare. Winter Memories' sire is known for producing strong runners over every surface (Kitten's Joy, Medaglia d'Oro). Memories of Silver, the dam of Winter Memories, was a multiple graded stakes winner over the turf up to 1 1/8 miles. She won the Q.E. II Challenge Cup, Beverly D, Diana Handicap, etc.
Surfaces: Winter Memories has a strong turf pedigree and has been successful over firm and yielding turf.
Outlook: Winter Memories has won both of her starts by a combined 6 1/2 lengths and is very capable over firm or yielding turf. In the Miss Grillo Stakes, Winter Memories demolished a nice group of fillies that included one graded and two listed stakes winners, stakes placed runners and the usual assortment of maidens. Winter Memories showed an electrifying turn of foot in the stretch of the Miss Grillo that others in this field will be hard pressed to match.

WYOMIA (Vindication - Beyond the Sun, by Kingmambo)
Pedigree: Wyomia is a half sister to world record holder Red Giant and turf stakes winner Carnera. Her first through third dams are stakes winners or stakes placed. Wyomia has a strong distaff family filled with graded stakes winners and Champions.
Surface: Unplaced over turf.
Outlook: Wyomia was unplaced in her debut over the turf and was soundly defeated by New Normal. Switching to the Woodbine Polytrack, Wyomia has been undefeated, including an easy win against Grade 3 company. Wyomia may deserve another shot over turf, but picked a tough place to prove it.