Monday, December 24, 2012

High Priced Juveniles - Where Are They Now?

Every year, six and seven figures are spent on royally bred yearlings. The racing world eagerly anticipates the careers of these magnificent looking horses. Following is an update on high priced and well bred babies.

POWERFUL (A.P. Indy - Malka, by Deputy Minister)

Sale Price: $1.4 -million

Owner: Amerman and Evans

Race Record: None

Trainer: Neil Drysdale

The well-monikered colt hasn't started yet, but he has posted a string of consecutive works from 3 to 6 furlongs. His trainer is noted for being on the conservative side. He trained Fusaichi Pegasus to a victory in the 2000 Kentucky Derby. That one made his debut in December, 1999, but didn't win his maiden until January of the following year. Hopefully, we'll see Powerful in the starting gate soon.

Pedigree: Powerful's dam Malka is a full sister to 2010 Vosburgh Stakes (G-1) winner Giralamo, Grade 2 winner Daydreaming, Grade 3 winner Accelerator, and Supercharger, the dam of 2010 Kentucky Derby (G-1) winner Super Saver. Malka also is a half sister to Canadian stakes winner Harborage.

BRABBHAM (Bernardini - Easter Bunnette, by Carson City)

Sale Price: $1.2-million

Owner: Darley

Race Record: None

Trainer: Kiren McLaughlin

Brabbham has recorded one work, on November 27 at Palm Meadows Training Center in Florida. 3F
:39.88 (12/13).

Pedigree: Brabbham is a half brother to 2011 Horse of the Year and champion older female Havre de Grace (by Saint Liam). This distaff family included two-time flower Bowl (G-1) heroine Riskaverse.

SONOMA COUNTY (Street Cry (IRE) - Forest Music, by Unbridled's Song)

Sale Price: $1.2-million

Owner: George Bolton

Race Record: None

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Sonoma County has a string of consecutive works from three to five furlongs. His last recorded work was his first gate breeze on Dec. 22. at Palm Meadows, 4F :48.33 (7/44).

Pedigree: Sonoma County is a half brother to Maclean's Music, who blazed 6F in 1:07 2/5 in his debut. Unfortunately, Maclean's Music ran so fast he hurt himself and hasn't been seen since. Sonoma County's dam Forest Music was a precocious sort who won her six furlong debut in 1:08 and change, wiring the field by 8 ½ lengths. She raced for three years and Forest Music's greatest triumph came in the Honnorable Miss (G-2), where she beat the ecellent fillies Ebony Breeze and Bank Audit by two lengths. This is the distaff family of Vosburgh (G-1) winner Mining and multiple stakes winner Scolara.

TRANSPARENT (Bernardini - Habiboo, by Unbridled's Song)

Sale Price: $725,000

Owner: Darley Stable

Race Record: 4-0-0-1 ($15,850)

Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin

In his third start Transparent was one paced around the Belmont track and finished third in a six furlong sprint, beaten six lengths by Darwin. That one later came back to finsh behind Violence in the Nashua Stakes (G-2). Transparent is entered on December 28 in Race 2 at Aqueduct, a one mile race maiden special weight.

Pedigree: Transparent's dam Habiboo won her maiden by 18 lengths in a 1 1/16 mile dirt race after failing to hit the board in four previous tries. She continued on to place in a couple of graded sprint stakes. Habiboo is a half sister to the Grade 1 sprinter and new sire Street Boss. Transparent's second – fourth dams are all stakes placed.

WATRUGONNADOROSIE (Curlin - Tears I Cry, by Chester House)

Sale Price: $700,000

Owner: St. Elias Stable & West Point Thoroughbreds

Race Record: 2-1-0-0 ($22,630)

Trainer: Bill Mott

Watrugonnadorosie won her second start, a 1 1/16 mile maiden race by 2 ¼ lengths in October. Her last work was a 5F breeze in 1:01.02 (10/49) at Belmont in early November. Currently, she's in light training at Payson Park.

Pedigree: Watrugonnadorosie's dam is a listed stakes winner and Grade 3 placed over the lawn. Her third dam is multiple group 1 winner Helen Street, dam of the international sire Street Cry and second dam of English Champion Juvenile Sharmardal.

LINCHPIN (Elusive Quality – Kobla, by Strawberry Road)

Sale Price: $650,000

Owner: Fox Hill Farm

Race Record: None

Trainer: Larry Jones

Linchpin has had one work, 3F :37.80 (6/) on October 24.

Pedigree: The colt is a full brother to multiple Grade 1 winner and 2010 Virginia Bred Champion Older Male Quality Road.

SNIFTER (Bernardini - Brandy Rose, by Distinctive Pro)

Sale Price: $875,000

Owner: Tabor, Magnier, & Smith

Race Record: 1-0-0-0

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Snifter was fifth in a one mile maiden race at Aqueduct on November 2. He broke slow and was green down the lane. The winner was Normandy Invasion, who would come back to finish second by a nose to Overanalyze in the Remsen Stakes (G-2). Snifter is at Palm Meadows and breezed 4F
:52.03 (25/27) on December 17.

Pedigree: Snifter is a ¾ brother to Alabama (G-1) heroine Sweet Symphony (by A.P. Indy). He's also a half to stakes winners Infinite Glory and Patriotic Flame. Snifter's dam Brandy Rose is a half sister to HOY Holy Bull.

QUALIFY (Medaglia d'Oro - Open Flirt, by A.P. Indy)

Sale Price: $125,000

Owner: WinStar Farm

Race Record: None

Trainer: Graham Motion

Qualify started working in the spring/summer, but was given time off. He started working seriously at Fair Hill, where he's recorded five breezes since November. His last work was December 14, 6F 1:14.40 (1 /2).

Pedigree: Qualify has the pedigree to become a Derby contender. His dam is a half to Jena Jenna and Win With A Wink. Both won the Won Joseph A. Gimma Stakes. She's also a half to Bertram F. Bongard Stakes winner Up Like Thunder.

SAINT X. (Tiznow - Flaming Heart, by Touch Gold)

Sale Price: $450,000

Owner: Donegal Racing, WinStar Farm et al

Race Record: 2-0-0-1

Trainer: Dale Romans

Saint X. last raced on November 25 in a 7F maiden race. He improved his position along the rail to get up for third behind Oxbow. That one was last seen finishing fourth in the CashCall Futurity (G-1).

Pedigree: By a two-time HOY out of a stakes winning mare by a Belmont Stakes winner, Saint X. has the pedigree to improve with racing. The first five dams in Saint X. female family all own blacktype. Grade 1 winning sprinter I'm the Tiger and multple stakes veteran Noosa Beach are part of this family.

ESCAPE ACT (Medaglia d'Oro - Miss Houdini, by Belong to Me)

Sale Price: None

Owner: Bo Hirsch LLC

Race Record: 3-1-0-1

Trainer: Gary Stute

Escape Act wired the field in a turf sprint maiden race on December 15 at Hollywood Park. It was her first try over the lawn.

Pedigree: Escape Act is a half sister to multiple G-2 winner Pappa Clem. Her first two dams are G-1 winners.

Others to watch:

BIEN ROULEE (Bernardini - Ultrafleet, by Afleet) – Filly is breezing regurarly at Palm Meadows. She's a half to BC Sprint hero California Flag.

KAY ELLEN (Tiznow - River's Prayer, by Devon Lane) – Filly had three gate works, and is breezing at the Fairgrounds. Kay Ellen is the first foal out of multiple G-1 sprinter River's Prayer.

THE GATEKEEPER (Ghostzapper - Dearest Trickski, by Proudest Romeo) – Colt had his first breeze on Dec. 20 at Hollywood Park for Mike Puype. The Gatekeeper is by 2004 HOY out of a G-1 winning sprinter.

HUMOR ME (Indian Charlie - Slew Peg, by Fusaichi Pegasus) – is getting ready for his debut. He's been breezing steadily at Hollywood Park for Bob Baffert. Humor Me has recorded three gate works, two of them bullets in his last three breezes. He's the second foal out of his G-3 stakes placed dam. She's a half sister to G-3 winner Slew Gin Fizz and G-2 winner Igotrhythm. His fourth dam is Gold Digger, the dam of Mr. Prospector.

Friday, December 14, 2012

He’s Had Enough Lookin for Luck in the Cashcall Futurity

Three years ago n the 2009 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Lookin At Lucky finished second by a desperate head after a horrendous trip behind Vale of York. He came back to win the CashCall Futurity by a measured ¾ length and the following year, the Preakness Stakes. Flash forward to this year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He's Had Enough fought Shanghai Bobby to head decision at the wire. The pretty gray colt had to steady and was shuffled back during the running of the race, but didn't let it deter him.

he's had enough2HE'S HAD ENOUGH will attempt to follow the path of Lookin At Lucky in this year's CashCall. He'll face off against the first four finishers of the Real Quiet Stakes, the winner of the Hollywood Prevue (G-3), the victor of the Generous Stakes (G-3) and the hero of the Nashua Stakes (G-2), plus other assorted runners.

Violence2VIOLENCE, the winner of the aforementioned Nashua, ships in for Todd Pletcher. The undefeated colt has raced only twice and soundly defeated his foes in the Remsen. The talent in Violence's female family seems to have skipped a couple of generations as there is no blacktype in the first two. Violence's third dam is Filly Triple Crown heroine and Older Female of the year, Sky Beauty.

reallyMrGreeleyREALLY MR GREELY the wire-to-wire winner of the Hollywood Prevue is suspect at the 1 1/16 mile distance of the CashCall. He has a sprinter's pedigree and was all out to hold on by ½ length in the 7F Prevue.

CarvingAs usual, Bob Baffert stuffed the entry box with multiple contenders. His strongest chance appears to be with CARVING. Undefeated in three of four starts, Carving tired badly in the Frontrunner Stakes after contesting the lead to the half mile pole. Coming back against listed company in the Real Quiet Stakes, Carving fought three wide in the stretch to prevail by a half a length over Fury Kapcori. He gets another shot against tougher rivals but his late pace figures are poor.

FURY KAPCORI beat up on lesser rivals in Northern California before taking on listed runners at Hollywood. The game colt fought the entire way in the Real Quiet, but he appears a step below the best here.

DEN'S LEGACY has done his best running over turf and Polytrack. He was unplaced in races over dirt and Cushion Track.

DIRTY SWAGran a deceptively good race in the Real Quiet. He was wide the entire way, got into a dog fight in the stretch, and was bested by only a length. He has the pedigree to enjoy running long and should improve with time. He may not be up to this level of competition yet, but he's shown some ability.

TitleContenderAfter easily winning his maiden, TITLE CONTENDER was tossed to the wolves in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He made the brisk early pace then faded like a spray on tan to be beaten by 16 lengths. There's some quality in his distaff family and he's shown some talent.

SIMON EYES shipped in from Keeneland for trainer Wesley Ward to run an even fourth in the Real Quiet. He's been working steadily at Hollywood. His dam was in the money five of seven starts over the turf and Simon Eyes really enjoyed the Polytrack at Keeneland. He may turn out to appreciate the lawn in the long run.

Two last out maiden winners will try to pull an upset in the Cashcall. OXBOW ships in from Churchill for Wayne Lukas. Oxbow is a full brother to Hollywood Prevue hero Awesome Patriot and their dam is a full sister to two-time Horse of the Year Tiznow.

LITTLE JERRY was green early in his 1 1/16 mile debut, but once he figured it out, he came charging down the stretch to win. His dam is a half to two stakes placed runners, plus a stakes winner. Little Jerry has been working well and owns the highest late pace figure in the field. Maybe he can pick up a piece of the pie if there's a torrid early pace.


Half of the last ten winners of the CashCall won on the lead. Two pressed the pace while two others sat mid-pack before unleashing their successful rally.

Most of the Cashcall field are within a few late pace speed figure points of each other. Most are in the mid to high eighties. Not an impressive bunch for a Grade 1 race. HE'S HAD ENOUGH is the proven class of the field. He's had a light campaign, so there's a good chance that he won't regress like other Breeders' Cup runners have in subsequent races. VIOLENCE will gather plenty of interest due to his connections and unbeaten record. CARVING also has a good record, and this field is coming up light. He's proven that he can sit behind the pace and win. TITLE CONTENDER flashed good figures in his maiden. If he runs back to that form, he could beat these. LITTLE JERRY shows the most upside, winning his last with a 99 lat pace speed figure. He's giving away experience. The other recent maiden winner OXBOW, shows a developing pattern of speed figures. He's bred to go long and is showing improvement.




#10 LITTLE JERRY - Longshot pick

Saturday, December 1, 2012

December Watch List

At HRN:  Uncaptured Has Derby Connections

November and December are traditionally quiet months in terms of racing action. The spectacle of the Breeders’ Cup is over and many precocious juveniles are getting a well deserved vacation before returning to action next year. However, November and December are good months to look at the two year olds who are bred to enjoy classic distances. The majority of the Derby winners from 1990 – 2012 won their maiden races between August and November of their juvenile season. Only two horses, Fusaichi Pegasus and Monarchos, didn’t win their maiden race until the following January. Let’s take a look at horses that are flying under the radar and could show up in next year’s stakes races.
APEX (Dynaformer - Enth, by Seeking the Gold)
Race Record: 2-0-2-0 ($32,000)
Trainer: Bill Mott
This Claiborne Farm homebred has yet to break his maiden, however, he finished second while sprinting in both starts and appeared green. Apex is bred to be a late-developer and should improve with time and distance. When we think of Apex's sire Dynaformer, we immediately think of grass horses, but Dynaformer produces long-winded runners over all surfaces. His stakes-wining dirt progeny include Champion Barbaro, Stephen Foster victor Perfect Drift and Lone Star Derby winner Dynever. Apex's dam Enth is a half sister to stakes winners Total and Cease. Apex's third dam, the blue hen Bound, is the grand-dam of HOY Blame and his half brother, multiple stakes winner Tend. Apex has comparable breeding to Tend as both are by Dynaformer out of Seeking The Gold mares. Apex is taking a break at Payson Park and we may see him make a start at Gulfstream Park. He could be a late-developer on the Triple Crown trail.
ArchwarriorARCHWARRIOR (Arch -Winner's Edge, by Seeking the Gold)

Race Record: 2-1-0-0 ($68,000)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
A $375K OBS March 2 YO in training sales graduate purchased by Alto Racing, Archwarrior was quick to win a six furlong maiden race in his August debut. He was tossed into the Hopeful Stakes against his tougher stablemate Shanghai Bobby and finished a lackluster fourth. Archwarrior is a half to a two minor stakes winners and a stakes placed runner. His dam is Grade 3 stakes placed. She's a half sister to the English highweighted filly Lucky Song, a winner at 13 furlongs. Archwarrior last worked in October and may be taking some time off to grow up over the winter. He's one of many talented juveniles stabled in Todd Pletcher's barn at Palm Meadows. We may see Archwarrior next at Gulfstream Park.
DeweySQuare photo David StephensonDEWEY SQUARE (Bernardini –Somethinaboutbetty, by Forestry)

Race Record: 2-2-0-0 ($55,200)
Trainer: Dale Romans
The RNA (Reserve not Attained) $575K Keeneland Yearling has been impressive in his two starts so far for his owner-breeder Siena Farms. Dewey Square outclassed maidens and allowance runners in his first two starts. Then the son of super stud Bernardini Dewey Square gained ground to finish third, two lengths behind the frontrunners in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G-2). The race was better than it looked on paper because Dewey Square raced four wide the whole way. Dewey Square's dam is a multiple stakes winning veteran of 25 races, mainly in Maryland. Humana Distaff winner My Trusty Cat is a member of this female family. Dewey Square may be distance challenged down the road since as a broodmare sire, Forestry isn't represented by a stakes winner past 1 1/16 miles.
FracDaddy1FRAC DADDY (Scat Daddy - Skipper's Mate, by Skip Away)

Race Record: 3-1-2-0 ($80,116)
Trainer: Ken McPeek
After his half siblings sold for six figures, Frack Daddy was scooped up by Magic City Thoroughbred Partners for $50K at last year's Keeneland September Yearling sale. Frack Daddy has finished in the money in all three starts at Churchill, including a monster finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. In that race, he went four wide and fought to the finish with the top runner Uncaptured, losing by a bare neck to his more experienced rival. Between the two, Frac Daddy ran the more impressive race. Frac Daddy receives his pretty gray coat from his damsire the Champion Skip Away, who was practically unbeatable as a five year old. Frack Daddy's dam is a half sister to the stakes winner Vegas Play. His second dam Power Play captured the Delaware Handicap at 1 ¼ miles. Should he stay healthy, Frac Daddy should be a major player on the Triple Crown trail.
FLYING BIRD (Street Boss - Caged Glory, by Honour and Glory)
Race Record: 5-2-0-1 ($60,334)
Trainer: Nick Zito
The Whitney Stables homebred is a late developing juvenile. After placing in his debut in June, he was off of the board in two starts. At the end of September, Flying Bird switched to turf and promptly won his maiden by over five lengths. He came back to score in an allowance race by two lengths over the Churchill turf. Flying Bird's first crop sire Street Boss set records as a sprinter. His offspring are winning up to 1 1/16 miles. They will likely be distance challenged, but may run farther over turf than dirt. There's little blacktype in the first two generations of Flying Bird's distaff line. However, his third dam is the blue hen Dear Birdie, dam of Belmont Stakes hero Birdtown and his full sister, Kentucky Oaks winner Birdtown. Flying Bird is inbred to the good mare Gongalon, dam of multiple G-1 winner and very good damsire Ogygian. Gonfalon is also the grand-dam of Grade 1 miler and sire Honour and Glory. Will Zito keep Flying Bird on the turf or experiment once again with dirt? Flying Bird's pedigree is filled with dirt influences, so we may see him take another shot at the surface next year at Gulfstream Park.
GulfportGULFPORT (Unbridled's Song - Dream Supreme, by Seeking the Gold)

Race Record: 4-1-1-1 ($55,460)
Trainer: Dale Romans
The exceptionally well-bred Gulfport was purchased by the partnership of Kinsman Stable, Michael Lauffer and Mike Rutherford for $775K at the Fasig Tipton August Yearling Sale in Saratoga. He's a half brother to Hopeful (G-1) hero and sire Majestic Warrior, stakes winner Crystal Current and Grade 3 placed Evolutionist. Gulfport's dam is a multiple G-1 winning sprinter. Gulfport freaked over the Churchill dirt scaring his rivals by over seven lengths in a seven furlong sprint on October 31. He followed up with a victory in an allowance race, getting a mile in 1:35.93 at Churchill on November 24. Among beaten rivals were stakes placed Midas Dancer (3rd Kentucky Downs Juvenile Stakes) and Five Iron (2nd, Swynford Stakes).
LITTLE DISTORTED (Distorted Humor - Asbeautifulasyou (IRE), by A.P. Indy)
Race Record: 1-1-0-0 ($40,800)
Trainer: Michael Mareina
An $180K Keeneland September Yearling purchase by Kuehne Racing, Little Distorted was impressive in his six furlong debut at Belmont. He dueled from the start with Soulsinging to the ½ mile pole, put that one away and was re-engaged by the well-bred favorite, Revolutionary. The two colts opened up eight lengths on the field, Little Distorted refused to yield and pulled away to win by 2 ½ lengths at the end. With Belmont Stakes hero A.P. Indy and Kentucky Derby champ Unbridled as his first and second damsires, Little Distorted has the pedigree to run all day. His second dam is Hollywood Oaks (G-2) heroine Santa Catarina. The English Champion Two Year Old Filly Culture Vulture is also a member of this female family. Little Distorted breezed 4F :48.46 (13/13) at Gulfstream Park on November 24. He may be pointed to an allowance race in December or January.
MIDNITE POPPA (Unbridled's Song - Island Sand, by Tabasco Cat)
Race Record: 2-0-0-2 ($14,800)
Trainer: Nick Zito
The My Meadowview Farm homebred has the pedigree to handle classic distances. He was third in two attempts sprinting over dirt. Midnite Poppa is a son of the multiple graded stakes winner Island Sand. The mare won from one mile to 1 ¼ miles, including the Acorn (G-1), Delaware Handicap (G-2), and placed in in the Kentucky Oaks behind the champion Ashado over a muddy track. She was also second in the Mother Goose Stakes. Midnite Poppa has been breezing at Churchill.
NormandyInvasionNORMANDY INVASION (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor)

Race Record: 3-1-1-0 ($92,240)
Trainer: Chad Brown
Normandy Invasion was purchased at the Keeneland April 2012 sale for $230K by Fox Hill Farm. After blasting maidens by over nine lengths in a one mile maiden race at Aqueduct, Normandy Invasion came back just 22 days later to face winners in the Remsen Stakes (G-2). He mad a blinding move around the far turn and was just nipped by the more experienced Overanalyze at the wire. Normandy Invasion galloped out past his rivals at the end of the race. There is very little blacktype in the colt's female family. However, he is bred along similar lines to West Virginia Derby winner Concord Point, who is by Tapit out of a Boston Harbor mare. Despite the ability to quicken and sustain a run, Normandy Invasion's pedigree is borderline for Classic distances. His damsire Boston Harbor was the precocious winner of the 1996 Breeders' Cup Juvenile and Champion Two Year Old. The majority of his daughters' offspring are best up to 1 1/16 miles, although one runner, Sealy Hill, has won at 1 ¼ miles. Despite the lack of class and shortcomings in his pedigree, Normandy Invasion appears to be a serious racehorse who could be a significant force on the Triple Crown trail.
palaceMalicePALACE MALICE ( Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem)

Race Record: 2-1-10 ($62,000)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
A $200K Keenland 2YO in training purchase by Dogwood Stable, Palace Malice was the first US based winner for his sire, Curlin, a two-time HOY. Palace Malice has a turf-oriented pedigree through his distaff line. His dam placed in a listed stakes over the lawn. She's a half sister to the dam of California stakes veteran Rail Trip. Palace Malice hasn't been heard from since winning his maiden in a 6 ½ furlong dirt sprint in August. He beat Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint champ Hightail by 4 ½ lengths. He may show up in an allowance race at Gulfstream sometime next year and the lawn could be an option.
WAR ACADEMY (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy)
Race Record: 1-1-0-0 ($27,000)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
The $450K '11 KEESEP Yearling purchase by Demi O'Byrne stalked nicely three wide and professionally dominated his rivals by 1 ¾ lengths, including his well regarded stablemate Denzel (Lion-Heart – Jindy's Dream, by A.P. Indy). War Academy's dam placed in two stakes over the lawn. She's a half sister to a stakes winner and stakes placed runner. The Champion Euro Juvie filly Gay Gallanta is part of this female family. War Academy's fourth dam Gay Missile is also the third dam of his broodmare sire, A.P. Indy. War Academy has an astounding 31 Classic Chef de race attributes in his pedigree. Should he live up to his hype, huge sales price and pedigree, War Academy could be a very serious contender on the Triple Crown Trail. War Academy breezed 4F :48.20 (14/47) on November 27 over the Santa Anita dirt.

Monday, November 19, 2012

Hollywood Prevue a Baffert Brigade

The Hollywood Prevue Stakes (G-3) hasn't produced a legitimate Triple Crown contestant since 2003, when the aptly named Lion Heart out-performed his pedigree to place second in the Kentucky Derby. As to be expected, the winners of the seven furlong Prevue Stakes are sprinter/miler types.

This year, Bob Baffert will have a profitable Thanksgiving since he entered four of the five contestants. All four are coming off of maiden victories and all four have at one point beaten each other.

ShakinItUpReminiscent of his sire, Champion Sprinter Midnight Lute, SHAKIN IT UP (Midnight Lute - Silver Bullet Moon, by Vindication) likes to sit behind horses and unleash an explosive move in the stretch. Come to think of it, his second dam, Champion Silverbulletday used to do the same thing. Shakin It Up was beaten 1 ¼ lengths by Super Ninety Nine in his debut.

Breeders' CupSUPER NINETY NINE (Pulpit - Exogenetic, by Unbridled's Song) has the pedigree to become a nice middle distance horse. His half sister is a stakes winner in Washington State while their dam is a ¾ sister to the ill-fated Exogenous, heroine of the Beldame and Gazelle, and runner -up in the Alabama and CCA Oaks.

Z BIG APPLE (Malibu Moon - Stormy Monday, by Storm Cat) is a full brother to the stakes winning sprinter Pinkarella. CashCall Futurity (G-1) hero Liaison is descended from the same female family. Z Big Apple beat Really Mr Greely by 3 ½ lengths in their debut.

Rounding out the Prevue field is the aforementioned REALLY MR GREELY (Horse Greeley - Mattie Camp, by Forest Camp). There isn't much blacktype in the first two generations of his female family, however, his third dam is the grand-dam of HOY/Sire Ghostzapper and his half brother City Zip.

HEIRKITTYThe fifth contestant, trained by Peter Miller is the filly HEIR KITTY. She's the most experienced horse in the race and was second in the Best Pal Stakes (G-2) in her second start. The daughter of Wildcat Heir was off slow and never got involved in the Del Mar Debutante against Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies duo Executiveprivilege and Beholder.


Frontrunners have won four of the last ten editions of the Prevue Stakes, while the rest were divided evenly between pace-pressers/stalkers.

One of two scenarios can happen. Baffert won't want to cook his horses on the lead against each other, so whomever is fastest out of the gate may just slow the pace to a crawl and cruise on home.

However, HEIR KITTY will have to punch it from the one hole if she's to keep from being boxed in by the Baffert brigade. She could bring a speed duel to the two faster horses, REALLY MR. GREELEY or SUPER NINETY NINE. If the speed duel develops, SHAKIN IT UP'S late pace speed figures outclass the rest of the field. He can sit back and let the others sort it out up front and pass at will.

I'll go with the second scenario.




Friday, November 16, 2012



In the nine years that the Delta Jackpot (G-3) has been contested, only one winner, Big Drama, has gone on to a career as a Grade 1 winner. Only one horse that finished in the money has made an impact on the Triple Crown races. That was 2005 Kentucky Derby runner-up Closing Argument.
Traditionally, horses that ran in the Breeders' Cup haven't fared well in the Delta Jackpot. Only Z Humor, fifth in the BC Juvenile, has won the Jackpot. Last year, Drill was unplaced in the BC Juvenile and Delta Jackpot after finishing second in the Norfolk Stakes. In 2008, Skipadate was unplaced in both the BC Juvenile Turf and Jackpot. Colts from Florida have done very well in the Delta Jackpot. Big Drama and Gourmet Dinner both won the Jackpot after winning the In Reality Stakes and last year Decisive Moment was a runner up in the In Reality and Jackpot.
This year's Delta Jackpot field is loaded with stakes winners, including Breeders' Cup Sprint champ Hightail. As in previous years, the majority of the field is loaded with sprinter/miler pedigrees that will be challenged at classic distances.
HightailLeading the field is Breeders' Cup Sprint Champ HIGHTAIL. The Wayne Lukas trainee surprised in the Sprint with a nose victory to win his maiden race. The son of Mineshaft has the pedigree to improve with maturity. He's coming off of the highest speed figure of his career.
Bern_Identity_Sanford_StakesBERN IDENTITY won the Sanford Stakes (G-2), but like every other two year old this year, was no match for Shanghai Bobby when he tangled with that rival in the Hopeful (G-1). Bern Identity easily won the Jean Lafitte Stakes, the prep race for the Jackpot by three lengths over Mylute. Read more about Bern Identity.
Mylute photo steveQueenMYLUTE came from off of the pace and went five wide around the turn in the Jean Lafitte Stakes, he made up some ground, but wasn't going to catch Bern Identity. Mylute descends from a precocious female family. His half brother She Digs Me won the Sapling (G-3) and Tyro. Their dam and second dam are both stakes winners.
Know_More_Two colts ship in from California for trainer Doug O'Neil. KNOW MORE won his maiden in the Best Pal (G-2). He wound up in a speed duel in the Frontrunner Stakes and finished a distant second to Power Broker. Experimenting with turf for the first time in the BC Juvenile Turf, Know More was wide the whole way and wasn't in the same zip code as the winner.
GoldencentsKnow More's stablemate GOLDENCENTS wowed in his 7 ¼ length winning debut. Then he was tossed in against the monster known as Shanghai Bobby in the Champagne Stakes. Making his first start on dirt, shipping to a new track and adding 2 ½ furlongs, Goldencents did very well to place second, five lengths behind the winner.
itsmyluckydayITSMYLUCKYDAY is the Florida representative in the Jackpot field. He crushed them in his last two races by over nine lengths, including a paid workout in the Foolish Pleasure Stakes. Itsmyluckyday hails from the female family of Florida Derby winner Vicar.
CentralBankerCENTRAL BANKER beat Hightail by a head in a maiden race and then finished second in the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Stakes. Both contests were over the lawn. Trying dirt for the first time, the son of Speightstown demolished a group of Churchill allowance runners by five lengths. Central Banker's half brother Gantry is a Grade 2 wining sprinter. Their dam is a stakes winner over the lawn. She's a half sister to Arkansas Derby winner Private Emblem. This is the female family of Met Mile hero Dixie Brass.
HEAVEN'S RUNWAY showed some ability on Presque Isle Downs Tapeta when he speed dueled his way to a ½ length win in the Fitz Dixon, Jr. Memorial. Switching barns, the son of Run Away and Hide tired badly to finish over 10 lengths behind the winner in the Iroquois in his first try over dirt.
Rounding out the Jackpot field is SHOW SOME MAGIC. After winning his maiden at Saratoga, he's been totally outclassed in both the Hopeful Stakes, and most recently, he was embarrassed by over 15 lengths by Bern Identity in the Jean Lafitte Stakes.


Track bias: Since the Delta Jackpot was held over a resurfaced track in 2006, two one run closers and two pace pressers have won. One mid-pack runner and one pace setter have also won.
Bern Identity is the obvious pick. His easy win in the Jean Lafitte earned him the highest late pace speed figure of his career and the second highest in the field. The son of Bernstein worked a bullet over the Delta Downs dirt in his latest breeze for the Jackpot. His trainer Kelly Breen is 17% with next out winners.
Hightail owns the highest late pace speed figure in the field. Is the well-bred colt living up to his pedigree or was his win in the Juvie Sprint a fluke? Trainer Wayne Lukas is 3% with graded stakes winners, and 13% with last out winners.
Mylute has shown improving speed figures in every race. He has the same late kick that his sire Midnight Lute did and the extra distance could be to his benefit. His trainer Tom Amoss wins with 30% two year olds.
Goldencents is fast, but he'll have to clear the field and may get into a fight with Heaven's Runway or Itsmyluckyday. The later doesn't need the lead to win and Heaven's Runway needs to show greater improvement over dirt.
#1 BERN IDENTITY-             $3.00   $2.60  
#9 GOLDENCENTS  - $7.20  $3.60   $3.40

$2  EXACTA        $26.60
$2 TRIFECTA   $175.40

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Breeders' Cup Winning Ways

The Breeders' Cup contests bring together the best horses in the United States and top European counterparts. These races can be very lucrative for handicappers. Since 2000, more than 65% of the winners have paid double digits. Multi-race wagers and exotics have paid thousands of dollars.

In the last decade, the Breeders’ Cup has been held at Santa Anita three times, 2003, 2009 and 2010. The 2003 edition was contested over dirt while the 2009 and 2010 versions were held over synthetic surfaces.

Below we’ll examine which running styles, prep races and track surfaces yield the most Breeders’ Cup winners in the Filly & Mare Sprint, Turf Sprint, Dirt Mile, and Filly & Mare Turf. The Sprint, Turf, Distaff (Ladies Classic) and Classic are analyzed on the Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds website.


musicalromancePrep Races: The Filly & Mare Sprint has been contested four times, twice over the Santa Anita Polytrack. The Thoroughbred Club of America (G-2) figured prominently as a prep race, with two mares completing the TCA and Filly & Mare Sprint double. One filly placed in the TCA before winning the Filly & Mare Sprint. One mare was victorious in the Ballerina and one placed in the Woodbine Mile before victories in the Breeders' Cup.

Running Style: No mare won the race from wire-to-wire. Three sat in fourth place or closer while one sat mid-pack before gaining their wins. One did her best work from the back of the pack.

Favorites: None of the favorites have won in the five editions of the Filly & Mare Sprint. Two finished second while the rest were off the board.

Europeans: Only one European took on the North American female sprinters. She finished off of the board.


RegallyReadyPrep Race: The Turf Sprint has been contested four times. The two times the race has been held over the downhill turf course at Santa Anita, not surprisingly, California-based horses won. Three races, the

Morvich Handicap, San Simeon Handicap (both contested at Santa Anita) and Woodford Stakes have been used as prep races. Two of the winners preped in the Morvich. Two of the Turf Sprint heroes finished off of the board in their respective preps.

Running Style: A pace setter and one run closer each won the Sprint when it was held over the Santa Anita downhill course. A pace presser and one run closer won at Churchill.

Favorites: Two favorites, California Flag and Regally Ready won, while one favorite placed third and another was off the board.

Europeans: Five Europeans have contested the Turf Sprint in the last four years. One finished second while the rest were off of the board.


caleb's possePrep Race: The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile has been contested five times. Two winners raced previously in the Goodwood Stakes, while one each ran in the Woodward, Kentucky Cup Classic and Indiana Derby. Only two Dirt Mile heroes won their prep. Two finished third and one was fourth.

Running Style: No Dirt Mile winner has wired the field. Two made their runs from the back of the pack while one mid-pack runner and a pace presser won. When the Dirt Mile was contested at Santa Anita, one winner pressed the pace while the other raced in the back of the pack and made his run in the stretch.

Favorites: None of the favorites won and only one hit the board.

Europeans: Only one European horse has entered the Dirt Mile since its inception. He placed fourth.


Perfect-Shirl-her-blanketPrep Races: The Filly and Mare Turf has been contested 13 times. Only one mare, world traveler Ouija Board won the race twice and placed once. In three attempts. In two of three runnings held at Santa Anita, European Fillies prevailed. Additionally, at Santa Anita in 2003, three of the four Europeans finished in the money, the other finished tenth. The Flower Bowl Invitational was used as a prep by four mares. Two won that prep while the other two finished off of the board. Two mares each used the WinStar Galaxy and the Arc de Triomphe as preps prior to their victories in the Filly & Mare Turf. Six of the 13 mares won their prep for the Breeders' Cup. One was second, three were third and four were unplaced.

Running Style: One mare in 13 editions of the Filly and Mare Turf has wired the field. Longshot Intercontinental denied the overwhelming favorite Ouija Board a second consecutive victory in the Breeders' Cup. Ouija Board would come back the following year and triumph.

The pace pressers and mid-pack running styles were used by the remaining 12 runners.

Favorites: Like other Breeders' Cup turf contests, the Filly and Mare Turf has been an attractive betting race for handicappers. Four of the favorites won, two each placed second and third, while the remaining five finished off of the board. Five winners had double digit payouts. The 2010 Champ Shared Account paid $46.00 to win, the highest in the race's history.

Europeans: 30 Europeans have entered the Filly and Mare Turf. Similar to the results of the other Breeders' Cup turf races, foreign horses have fared well. Of the 30, 13 have hit the board, with four each winning or placing, while five finished third.

Thursday, October 18, 2012

Breeders' Cup Winning Ways

Head LogoThe Breeders' Cup contests bring together the best horses in the United States and top European counterparts. These races can be very lucrative for handicappers. Since 2000, more than 65% of the winners have paid double digits. Multi-race wagers and exotics have paid thousands of dollars.

In the last decade, the Breeders’ Cup has been held at Santa Anita three times, 2003, 2009 and 2010. The 2003 edition was contested over dirt while the 2009 and 2010 versions were held over synthetic surfaces.

Below we’ll examine which running styles, prep races and track surfaces yield the most Breeders’ Cup winners in the Juvenile Divisions. Throughout next week we'll cover the rest of the races.



The Juvenile Sprint was held for the first time last year at Churchill Downs.

Prep Race:  Secret Circle prepped in the Jack Goodman Stakes at Santa Anita.


Running Style:  Secret Circle speed dueled with Trinniberg through opening fractions of :20.96 and :44.55. Secret Circle was in command by the ½ mile pole and held on to win the six furlong race by a length in 1:10.52.


Favorites:  Secret Circle was the favorite.


Europeans:  Shumoos, the only European based horse in the field, finished second.


HansenPrep Race:  The historic Champagne has proved to be the most form-full prep race for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. In 2007, War Pass and Pyro, the first two finishers in the Champagne, duplicated their placings in the Champagne. Uncle Mo pulled off the Champagne/Juvenile double and last year, Union Rags missed pulling off the feat by the narrowest margin.

The Norfolk is also a good gauge. Four of the last six horses that hit the board in the Norfolk (renamed the Frontrunner this year) have also hit the board in the Juvenile. When the Breeders' Cup was held at Santa Anita in 2003, Action This Day won his maiden over the Santa Anita dirt and then shocked the Breeders' Cup field with a victory.


Running Style:  In the last six years, two horses, War Pass and Hansen lead wire – to -wire. Two pace pressers won, while one mid-pack runner and one closer were victorious. In 2003 at Santa Anita, Action This Day sat in last place throughout much of the race, made his move through the stretch to win by 1 ½ lengths.


Favorites:  In the last six years, favorites have won only twice, while the other four placed second.

Pedigree matters too. Sprint-oriented precocious youngsters don’t usually fare well in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile or Juvenile Fillies.


Europeans:   Three Europeans, Arazi, Wilko and Vale of York have won the Juvenile. The later won over a synthetic surface.


mymissauriliaPrep Race:  In the last ten years, the Oak Leaf and Frizette Stakes have produced the most Juvenile Fillies winners.

The Matron Stakes gave us two Breeders' Cup winners, while the Summer Stakes and My Dear Girl each produced one winner. Only one filly in the last ten years didn't win her Breeders' Cup prep. In 2009, She Be Wild was second in the Alcibiades before winning over the Santa Anita Polytrack.


Running Style:  Four fillies pressed the pace, sitting either second – fourth before making their winning moves. Two fillies went wire to wire while one, Stardom Bound, made her run from the back of the pack. In 2003, Halfbridled sat on the outside in mid-pack before making her move in the stretch.


Favorites: Favorites won five of the last six editions of the Juvenile Fillies. 2009 post-time favorite Blind Luck finished third.


Europeans:  Five Europeans have raced in the Juvenile Fillies. None have hit the board and the best placing was last year's fifth place finisher, Questing.


wrotePrep Race: The Juvenile Turf has been contested five times. Four of the last five winners had their final prep overseas. Two raced in the Grand Criterium, one won while the other was second. The lone US based Juvenile Turf hero won the Bourbon Stakes in his previous start. Two of the four winners placed second and third in their final prep.


Running Style:  Two Juvenile Turf champs raced mid-pack before unleashing their stretch drive. A closer and pace presser also won.


Favorites: One favorite was successful while two ran second and one was unplaced.


Europeans:   The Europeans have proved to be a strong factor in the Juvenile Turf. 14 runners were entered in the last four years. Of those, three won, two were second and one placed third. Eight finished off of the board.


Stephanie's KittenPrep Race: The Juvenile Fillies' Turf has been contested four times. Two prep races stand out as key factors. The first two Fillies' Turf heroines, Maram and Tapitsfly, respectively won and placed in the Miss Grillo Stakes (G-3). The 2008 and 2009 Breeders' Cup events were held at Santa Anita.

The one mile Natalma (G-3) over the Woodbine green was instrumental in the victories of the next two Juvenile Fillies Turf winners. More Than Real placed second in the Natalma (G-3) in 2010 before succeeding in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Last year, Stephanie's Kitten was third in the Natalma. Stephanie's Kitten squeezed in a victory in the Alcibiades (G-1) over the Keeneland Polytrack before posting her win in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.


Running Style:  All four winners sat in fifth place or farther back before unleashing their stretch runs.


Favorites:  All four fillies paid double digits to win. In all but one instance, the favorite for the Juvenile Fillies Turf finished out of the money.


Europeans: Out of 12 European fillies to contest the four editions of the Juvenile Fillies' Turf, only one finished in the money.