Friday, December 14, 2012

He’s Had Enough Lookin for Luck in the Cashcall Futurity

Three years ago n the 2009 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Lookin At Lucky finished second by a desperate head after a horrendous trip behind Vale of York. He came back to win the CashCall Futurity by a measured ¾ length and the following year, the Preakness Stakes. Flash forward to this year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He's Had Enough fought Shanghai Bobby to head decision at the wire. The pretty gray colt had to steady and was shuffled back during the running of the race, but didn't let it deter him.

he's had enough2HE'S HAD ENOUGH will attempt to follow the path of Lookin At Lucky in this year's CashCall. He'll face off against the first four finishers of the Real Quiet Stakes, the winner of the Hollywood Prevue (G-3), the victor of the Generous Stakes (G-3) and the hero of the Nashua Stakes (G-2), plus other assorted runners.

Violence2VIOLENCE, the winner of the aforementioned Nashua, ships in for Todd Pletcher. The undefeated colt has raced only twice and soundly defeated his foes in the Remsen. The talent in Violence's female family seems to have skipped a couple of generations as there is no blacktype in the first two. Violence's third dam is Filly Triple Crown heroine and Older Female of the year, Sky Beauty.

reallyMrGreeleyREALLY MR GREELY the wire-to-wire winner of the Hollywood Prevue is suspect at the 1 1/16 mile distance of the CashCall. He has a sprinter's pedigree and was all out to hold on by ½ length in the 7F Prevue.

CarvingAs usual, Bob Baffert stuffed the entry box with multiple contenders. His strongest chance appears to be with CARVING. Undefeated in three of four starts, Carving tired badly in the Frontrunner Stakes after contesting the lead to the half mile pole. Coming back against listed company in the Real Quiet Stakes, Carving fought three wide in the stretch to prevail by a half a length over Fury Kapcori. He gets another shot against tougher rivals but his late pace figures are poor.

FURY KAPCORI beat up on lesser rivals in Northern California before taking on listed runners at Hollywood. The game colt fought the entire way in the Real Quiet, but he appears a step below the best here.

DEN'S LEGACY has done his best running over turf and Polytrack. He was unplaced in races over dirt and Cushion Track.

DIRTY SWAGran a deceptively good race in the Real Quiet. He was wide the entire way, got into a dog fight in the stretch, and was bested by only a length. He has the pedigree to enjoy running long and should improve with time. He may not be up to this level of competition yet, but he's shown some ability.

TitleContenderAfter easily winning his maiden, TITLE CONTENDER was tossed to the wolves in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He made the brisk early pace then faded like a spray on tan to be beaten by 16 lengths. There's some quality in his distaff family and he's shown some talent.

SIMON EYES shipped in from Keeneland for trainer Wesley Ward to run an even fourth in the Real Quiet. He's been working steadily at Hollywood. His dam was in the money five of seven starts over the turf and Simon Eyes really enjoyed the Polytrack at Keeneland. He may turn out to appreciate the lawn in the long run.

Two last out maiden winners will try to pull an upset in the Cashcall. OXBOW ships in from Churchill for Wayne Lukas. Oxbow is a full brother to Hollywood Prevue hero Awesome Patriot and their dam is a full sister to two-time Horse of the Year Tiznow.

LITTLE JERRY was green early in his 1 1/16 mile debut, but once he figured it out, he came charging down the stretch to win. His dam is a half to two stakes placed runners, plus a stakes winner. Little Jerry has been working well and owns the highest late pace figure in the field. Maybe he can pick up a piece of the pie if there's a torrid early pace.


Half of the last ten winners of the CashCall won on the lead. Two pressed the pace while two others sat mid-pack before unleashing their successful rally.

Most of the Cashcall field are within a few late pace speed figure points of each other. Most are in the mid to high eighties. Not an impressive bunch for a Grade 1 race. HE'S HAD ENOUGH is the proven class of the field. He's had a light campaign, so there's a good chance that he won't regress like other Breeders' Cup runners have in subsequent races. VIOLENCE will gather plenty of interest due to his connections and unbeaten record. CARVING also has a good record, and this field is coming up light. He's proven that he can sit behind the pace and win. TITLE CONTENDER flashed good figures in his maiden. If he runs back to that form, he could beat these. LITTLE JERRY shows the most upside, winning his last with a 99 lat pace speed figure. He's giving away experience. The other recent maiden winner OXBOW, shows a developing pattern of speed figures. He's bred to go long and is showing improvement.




#10 LITTLE JERRY - Longshot pick