tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-75070112682958152182024-03-05T21:39:16.565-05:00Iron Maidens ThoroughbredsThoroFan Handicapper's Cornerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03177519642532691985noreply@blogger.comBlogger201125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7507011268295815218.post-80631742895210949542015-05-09T12:20:00.001-04:002015-05-09T12:20:00.289-04:00Future Turf Stars at Belmont Park<p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Calibri"><img title="belmont-park-racetrack-2" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px 0px 10px; border-left: 0px; display: inline" border="0" alt="belmont-park-racetrack-2" src="http://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-STeaxjkIu9A/VU4zrWc8AmI/AAAAAAAACTo/S6_Em-dHEao/belmont-park-racetrack-2%25255B4%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="244" align="left" height="137"> (May 9, 2015) Saturday’s tenth race at Belmont is for maidens traveling a mile over the lawn. This is a large, contentious field filled with promising youngsters. I expect that we’ll be seeing at least three or four of them headlining stakes in the future. Let’s review the pedigrees. </font> <p align="justify"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>ASBAAD</b> (Street Cry) is the second foal out of Lear's Princess. Lear's Princess won the Gazelle over Rags to Riches and finished 2nd in the CCA Oaks and Alabama. She also won the Tweedside Stakes at 1 1/16 m. on the lawn. Asbaad has a good turf pedigree. Street Cry gets 12% turf winners (that's a Brisnet stat and I think it's wrong, probably closer to 16% or more). Damsire Lear Fan is a French G-1 winner. </font></font> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Calibri">Asbaad’s stablemate <b>ARGHAD</b> (Distorted Humor) (AE) Scratched. is a half brother to multiple turf stakes winner Victory Lap and to multiple graded stakes winning sprinter Zanjero, plus his full sister, the stakes placed Acacia. </font> <p align="justify"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>BUBBA'S D'ORO</b> (Medaglia d'Oro) is Arghad’s older half brother. Trainer Bruce Levine is 0-7 with first timers over the lawn.</font></font> <p align="justify"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>TIZ AFLEET</b> (Tiz Wonderful) is the first foal out of his dam, Afleet Frio. She’s a half sister to the multiple stakes winning veteran Beau’s Town. Now Beau’s Town was noted as a dirt horse, but he did win his sole foray on the lawn, plus two of the dam’s other half siblings won or placed on turf. This is an experiment for Tiz Afleet. His sire gets 10% winners over grass, and the Mott barn is 16% with first time turf runners. Note that Tiz Afleet worked a second to last bullet over the training track. </font></font> <p align="justify"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>LONE TRADER</b> (More Than Ready) is the first foal out of Carriage Trade, whose full brother Art Museum won a turf sprint stakes in Ireland. She’s also a half sister to Fountain of Youth hero Lil’s Lad. Lone Trader’s speed figures have improved in every start and he switches back to turf. Trainer Michael Hushion has a fantastic 31% win rate with a horse making its third start off of a layoff. </font></font> <p align="justify"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>FIRE AWAY</b> (War Front) is a Phipps family bred half brother to Belmont Derby Invitational (G-1) hero Mr. Speaker. Their dam Salute is a graded stakes placed ¾ sister to Miner’s Mark and Our Emblem, plus a half to My Flag, etc. etc. Fire Away’s second dam is the Champion and blue hen Personal Ensign. Yes…THAT family! If he lives up to his pedigree, Fire Away is a sire in the making. Fire Away didn’t show much as a two year old, so he got some time off to grow up. He has a string of fast works from the conservative McGaughey barn and gets first time Lasix. </font></font> <p align="justify"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>INFINITE MIDNIGHT</b> (Giant’s Causeway) is a half to 2011 Santa Anita Derby winner Midnight Interlude and his full brother, Oceanside Stakes winner Midnight Crooner. Their dam is Gr.1 placed in New Zealand. Top grass trainer Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz, Jr. team up for a 39% win rate. </font></font> <p align="justify"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>SHINOBI</b> (Lord Shanakill) has breeding we don’t see every day. His sire is a Gr. 2 winning turf sprinter by Speightstown and his damsire Black Sam Bellamy is a full brother to Galileo. Shinobi is the first foal out of his German-bred dam. He has line breeding (4 generations and back) to the blue hen Special. She’s the dam of Nureyev (4x5 in this pedigree) and she’s also the grand-dam of Sadlers Wells (sire of Black Sam Bellamy). There’s 5Sx5Dx6D (5Sire x 5 Dam x 5 Dam) inbreeding to Special in Shinobi’s pedigree. You can never have too much of a good thing. Shinobi and his stablemate Infinate Transfer appear to be workmates. High percentage trainer Chad Brown and jockey Javier Castellano combine for an outstanding 41% win rate.</font></font> <p align="justify"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>VEYA</b> (Giant’s Causeway) is out of one of the last daughters of the great Seattle Slew. Veya’s second damsire is Northern Dancer It’s rare to find these names so close up in a pedigree and it’s a shame that Veya is a gelding. Althugh looking at his race record of 0-13, perhaps it’s for the best. Veya is a half to Irish 2000 Guineas winner Bachelor Duke, plus a German SW and a French SP runner. Veya’s third through fifth dams (Lisadell, Thong, Rough Shod) are all blue hens. Veya gets blinkers back on. The Ribaudo barn is 0-3 with this angle and has a 5% win rate with turf horses. Veya doesn’t seem to care for racing. Maybe he’d make a good steeplechaser or eventer. </font></font> <p align="justify"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>BRITANNIA'S MOAT</b> (English Channel) is a half to the stakes winning sprinter Freeway Ticket and a two stakes placed runners. There’s some minor blacktype in the first couple of generations and this is the distaff line of Champion Sprinter Xtra Heat. Britannia’s Moat was beaten only a length in his debut as a two year old. His works are on the average/slow side, but Donk and Franco team for a 27% win rate. </font></font> <p align="justify"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>SENOR CASANOVA</b> (Medaglia d'Oro) is the first foal out of the stakes winning veteran Model, who is multiple G-1 placed (Spinster, Santa Maria H., Santa Margarita Inv.). Senor Casanova’s second dam Snowfire placed in the 1000 Guineas. Senor Casanova has been working spectacularly for Clement. </font></font> <p align="justify"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>ROCK EAGLE</b> (Indian Charlie) has very little blacktype in his immediate female family. His dam placed in two stakes races over the lawn (one at Belmont) and his second dam is also stakes placed. Going back a generation is where we find all of the stakes winners, including QE II winner Bit of Whimsy, multiple graded placed Sky Blazer and a host of other turf stakes winners. Rock Eagle went seven wide in a turf sprint at Gulstream and missed by only ½ a length in a blanket finish. Tagg/Maragh are 0-9 together.</font></font> <p align="justify"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>TIZ TIME TO SHAKE</b> (Tiz Wonderful) has turf attributes in his distaff line. None of his half siblings own blacktype, but a couple have won or placed on the lawn. His dam is a stakes winning turf miler and his second dam Shake the Yoke was a multiple group winner in England. The Shivmangal barn has poor stats and jockey Eric Cancel is 0-27 on the turf. </font></font> <p align="justify"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>STEEL SKY</b> (Even the Score) (AE) SCRATCHED.</font></font> <h2></h2> <h2><b><font color="#800000" size="4" face="Calibri">Selections</font></b></h2> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Calibri">In a large field of youngsters, many of whom are making their debut, experience matters.</font> <p align="justify"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>ROCK EAGLE (4-1), BRITANNIA'S MOAT (8-1), LONE TRADER (6-1) </b>and <b>TIZ AFLEET (8-1) </b>all have experience and with the right trip, any one of them could win. <b>SENOR CASANOVA (10-1)</b> has some of the best works in the field. Don’t ignore that second to last bullet breeze. He’ll be live. <b>FIRE AWAY (12-1)</b> didn’t run a step in two starts as a two year old. Note the sharp 3F moves to put some speed into this colt. I’m inclined to give him another chance. Leading trainer Chad Brown’s duo of <b>INFINITE MIDNIGHT</b> <b>(5-1)</b> and <b>SHINOBI</b> <b>(9-2)</b> will be heavy favorites. Both have the class, and the conditioning, to win first time out. </font></font> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Calibri">This is a tough race to handicap. I suggest box exotics. </font> <p align="justify"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>#5 INFINITE MIDNIGHT</b> <b>(5-1)</b></font></font> <p align="justify"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>#6 SHINOBI</b> <b>(9-2)</b><b></b></font></font> <p align="justify"><b><font size="3" face="Calibri">#9 BRITANNIA'S MOAT (8-1)</font></b> <p align="justify"><b><font size="3" face="Calibri">#10 SENOR CASANOVA (10-1)</font></b> <p align="justify"><b><font size="3" face="Calibri">#4 FIRE AWAY (12-1)</font></b> ThoroFan Handicapper's Cornerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03177519642532691985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7507011268295815218.post-25676449605903164102015-05-06T16:19:00.001-04:002015-05-06T16:21:24.728-04:00The Kiddie List – May 6, 2015<p><a href="http://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-KY5lIm59Y0k/VUp3Yyr9VMI/AAAAAAAACS0/GgyVHX5BhfE/s1600-h/The%252520kiddie%252520list%25255B3%25255D.jpg"><font size="3" face="Calibri"><img title="The kiddie list" style="border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px" border="0" alt="The kiddie list" src="http://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-M3TqiHHBK3c/VUp3ZaNUzDI/AAAAAAAACS4/aVyVbnCC0yA/The%252520kiddie%252520list_thumb%25255B1%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="315" height="70"></font></a><font size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri">The most precocious of this year’s crop of two year olds made their arrival on the racing scene at Keeneland’s spring meet this month. Three races are carded for two year old in April.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>As summer deepens, more tracks will be carding races for the babies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>As I’ve done over the last four years, I’ll continue the Kiddie List as I seek out the best and brightest of this next generation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>Condo Commando, Take Charge Brandi, Eskenformoney, Carpe Diem, Mr. Z, Frosted, Dullahan, Take Charge Indy, Union Rags, Creative Cause, Drill, Dreaming of Julia, Beholder,<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"> </b>and countless other runners were featured on the Kiddie List before they hit the national radar. Many juveniles that were highlighted on the Kiddie List have rewarded their backers with double digit wins. <?xml:namespace prefix = "o" /><o:p></o:p></font></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><img title="Kiddie List graphic" style="border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px" border="0" alt="Kiddie List graphic" src="http://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-N_8xpsNuK-g/VUp3w2vnvOI/AAAAAAAACTM/bfYbYyQdPq8/Kiddie%252520List%252520graphic%25255B4%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="229" align="left" height="244"> The Kiddie List covers the fastest workers and blue bloods breezing four furlongs and farther.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>I’ll cover the New York, Kentucky, California and Florida tracks, and occasionally Arlington, Fair Hill and Monmouth.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>If a particularly well bred baby from the database shows up at another track, I’ll include that one as well. Due to the enormous number of juveniles, some of these names may show up only once or twice.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>It’s highly suggested that you use a virtual stable, available through Equibase, DRF or Brisnet to follow the babies in whom you’re most interested. <o:p></o:p></font></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri">Saratoga opened the doors for training on April 20.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span><o:p></o:p></font></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri">SARATOGA:<o:p></o:p></font></font></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri">The first couple of two year olds to set foot on the dirt training track are a couple of precocious youngsters.<o:p></o:p></font></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri">MAY 5 | 3F | TRAINING TRACK<o:p></o:p></font></font></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal">TARPON</b> (Discreet Cat - I Know Better, by Unbridled's Song) (C ) 3F :37.08 (2/8)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>(KEESEP14<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>$110K) Possibly trained by Todd Pletcher, this colt breezed twice previously at Palm Meadows.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>His half brother by Sky Mesa needed six starts to find the right level, but did hit the board in his third start. Discreet Cat gets 11% FTS.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>Tarpon’s dam failed to win in 4 starts, but hit the board twice.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>She’s a half to MSP miler <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal">Elusive Schemes</b> (Elusive Quality).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>Tarpon’s third dam <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal">STORM BEAUTY</b> won the Miss Preakness and his fourth dam is the blue hen Stick to Beauty, dam of Champion Sprinter <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal">GOLD BEAUTY</b> (dam of Champion and sire <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal">DAYJUR</b>).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>Filly Triple Crown heroine <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal">SKY BEAUTY</b>, Cigar Mile winner and sire <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal">TALE OF EKATI</b>, G1 winners <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal">POINT OF ENTRY</b>, and <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal">PINE ISLAND</b> are just some of the accomplished runners descended from Stick to Beauty. Tarpon’s pedigree is miler speed over stamina. He won’t have a problem getting two turns and may prefer longer sprints. <o:p></o:p></font></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify"><o:p><font size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><img title="Malibu Moon-Quanah County at JJ farm Sept 24 2014" style="border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px" border="0" alt="Malibu Moon-Quanah County at JJ farm Sept 24 2014" src="http://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-e_KAwmthwCk/VUp3ZiRAnNI/AAAAAAAACTA/H6hQQ2PDBUg/Tonasah%252520Malibu%252520Moon-Quanah%252520County%25255B7%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="184" align="left" height="156"> TONASAH</b> (Malibu Moon - Quanah County, by Valid Expectations) (F) 3F :37.08 (2/8)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>(KEESEP14<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>$250K) likely Tarpon’s stablemate, her previous breeze at Palm Meadows matches his.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>Tonasah is a half to the G-3 SW sprinter <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal">QUANTUM MISS</b> (Smoke Glacken) and SP <strong><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi">Kelwynne </span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-weight: normal; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi">(Yes Its True).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>Quantum Miss won the Blue Mountain Stakes for juvenile fillies and Kelwynne placed in the race. All five of Tonasah’s half siblings were precocious, winning or placing at two. Their dam won her debut and placed in three stakes races in California, including the </span></strong>Moccasin Stakes at Hollywood Park. Malibu Moon gets an average 14% two year old winners and an excellent 36% FTS.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>Tonasah may be distance challenged beyond a mile to 1 1/16 miles, but she could have an excellent chance of winning or hitting the board in her debut. Keep an eye on her. <o:p></o:p></font></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify"><o:p><font size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri">MAY 6 | 3F | TRAINING TRACK<o:p></o:p></font></font></b></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal">LADY DEVIL</b> (High Cotton - Aztec Sally, by Medaglia d'Oro) (F) 3F :37.60 (2/13) (OBSMAR13 $260K) She’s a half to SP juvenile <strong><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi">Aztec Key </span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-weight: normal; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi">(Circular Quay), and had a 3-1-1-1 race record, all at age two.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>Lady Devil’s fourth dam is the blue hen </span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi">COLD HEARTED</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-weight: normal; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi">, dam of Belmont Stakes hero </span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi">CAVEAT</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-weight: normal; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi">. Other notable names descended from this mare is leading California sire </span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi">BENCHMARK</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-weight: normal; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi">, multiple G1 winner </span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi">TRANQUILITY LAKE</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-weight: normal; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi"> and her offspring, </span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi">AFTER MARKET</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-weight: normal; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi">, </span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi">COURAGOUS CAT</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-weight: normal; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi"> and </span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi">JALIL</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-weight: normal; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi">, plus the MSW veteran </span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi">GIMMIE</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-weight: normal; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi"> </span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi">CREDIT</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-weight: normal; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi">. Other than Aztec Key, this particular family branch hasn’t produced any blacktype for three generations. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>Lady Devil has a miler over stamina pedigree, with 3x3 inbreeding to A.P. Indy (who is the damsire of both High Cotton and Aztec Sally). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></strong></font></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify"><strong><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-weight: normal; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi"><o:p><font size="3"> </font></o:p></span></strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal">SPLIT THE UPRIGHTS</b> (Cape Blanco (IRE) - Saratoga Fling, by Pulpit) (C) 3F :38.17 (7/13) (FTKJUL14 $110K) is a son of Arlington Million hero and Freshman Sire Cape Blanco. He’s the first foal out of his dam, an allowance class dirt sprinter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>Saratoga Fling was unplaced in two turf attempts. She’s a half sister to the French SW turf miler <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal">CHERIEARCH</b> (Arch). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>Split the Uprights’ second dam <b>CHERISH DESTINY</b> is a SW dirt sprinter. This is the distaff line of MG1 heroine <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal">CHAMPAGNE D’ORO</b> and Belmont Stakes winner <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal">RULER</b> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal">ON ICE</b>. Split the Uprights is by a turf router out of a dirt sprinter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>His pedigree suggests that she may prefer going a mile. Anybody’s guess as to which surface. <o:p></o:p></font></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify"><o:p><font size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal">STRATEGIC ELEGANCE</b> (Courageous Cat - Powerful Elegance, by Smart Strike) (C) 3F :38.17 (7/13) is a son of multiple G1 winning turf miler and Freshman Sire Courageous Cat, who is a<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>full brother to G1 turf winner and sire <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal">AFTER MARKET</b>). Strategic Elegance is the first foal out of his unraced dam. Powerful Elegance is a half to Santa Anita Oaks (G-1) heroine <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal">SILENT SIGHS</b> (Bertrando), her full sister G-2 winner <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal">PROPOSED</b> and this year’s San Felipe Stakes runner-up <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal">Prospect Park</b> (Tapit).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>Strategic Elegance has the pedigree to do well over various surfaces and distance as a two year old shouldn’t be an issue. Courageous Cat’s offspring should be mid-season (July forward) types who could do well over various surfaces. <o:p></o:p></font></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify"><o:p><font size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal">DEEPLY UNDERVALUED</b> (Kitten's Joy - Dream About, by Cherokee Run) (C) 3F :39.00 (10/13) (KEESEP14 $200K)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>he’s a half brother to the stakes turf veteran <strong><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi">SLEEPLESS KNIGHT</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-weight: normal; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi"> (War Chant).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>His half sister<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span></span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi">Sleepless Dixie</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-weight: normal; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi"> (Dixie Union) was 0-10 on turf and finished third in two juvie stakes at Monmouth. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span></span></strong><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal">DREAM ABOUT</b> was second in her debut and won the Mazarine Breeders' Cup Stakes (G-2) in her third start as a two year old. Deeply Undervalued’s second through fourth dams all own blacktype. Kitten’s Joy’s two year olds win at an average 16% and 17% winners from FTS.<o:p></o:p></font></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify"><o:p><font size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal">LIFE IMITATES ART</b> (More Than Ready - Habiboo, by Unbridled's Song) (C) 3F :39.00 (10/13) (KEESEP14 $175K)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>has three half siblings, only one raced at two, and was unplaced. <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal">HABIBOO</b> won the First Flight Handicap (G2) as a juvenile and she’s a half sister to the MG1 sprinter and sire <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal">STREET BOSS</b> (Street Cry).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>The second dam is stakes placed and the third and fourth dams are French blacktype earners. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>More Than Ready is an above average sire of juveniles, getting 18% winners, although only 11% winners from FTS. Life Imitates Art could do well over dirt or turf and may prefer longer sprints to middle distances. <o:p></o:p></font></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify"><o:p><font size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal">CYBER SECURITY</b> (Broken Vow - Cameron Crazies, by Lion Heart) (C ) <span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>3F :39.63 (12/13)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>(OBSAUG14 $185K) he’s a half to the stakes winning sprinter <strong><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi">PRUDHOE BAY</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-weight: normal; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi"> (Songandaprayer), who won his debut at two and the </span></strong>Jersey Shore Stakes (G-3) at three. Their dam was second in the Schuylerville Stakes at two and owns the only blacktype in two generations. Broken Vow’s two year olds win at 16% and his FTS at 11%. Cyber Security has the pedigree to be an early summer sprinter/miler.<o:p></o:p></font></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify"><o:p><font size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal">ECONOMIC MODEL</b> (Flatter - Queen of America, by Quiet American)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>(C) 3F :39.63 (12/13) <span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>(KEESEP14 $150K) this Claiborne Farm-bred colt is a half brother to <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal">WELL MONIED</b> (Maria’s Mon), winner of the Honeymoon Handicap (G-2) and runner-up in the American Oaks Invitational and Del Mar Oaks, both G-1 events on the lawn.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>He’s also a half to the stakes winning turf miler <strong><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi">JIMMY SIMMS</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-weight: normal; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi"> (Lost Soldier).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>Two of </span></strong>Economic Model’s half siblings raced at two, both hit the board but didn’t win. Three of his six half siblings to race are winners. Flatter gets an average 16% two year old winners but only 11% FTS win. Economic Model may be a mid-to-late two year old and prefer longer sprints to middle distances.<o:p></o:p></font></font></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify"><o:p><font size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify"><o:p><font size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify"><o:p><font size="3" face="Calibri"> </font></o:p></p> <p><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font></p> ThoroFan Handicapper's Cornerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03177519642532691985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7507011268295815218.post-48023675154949326392015-04-03T15:44:00.001-04:002015-04-03T15:45:25.442-04:002015 Kentucky Derby Trail – Wood Memorial<p><font size="3" face="Calibri"><img title="Derby Trail" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline" border="0" alt="Derby Trail" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-zeklshOQhzE/VR7tuIVpDcI/AAAAAAAACQw/2sB2HMDLD-Q/Derby%252520Trail%25255B8%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="157" align="left" height="241"> Read the <b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/Floridaf/Handicapping_the_Santa_Anita_Derby_123">Santa Anita Derby review</a></b>.</font> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Calibri">At one time, the </font><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/stakes/Wood_Memorial"><font size="3" face="Calibri">Wood Memorial</font></a><font size="3" face="Calibri"> was a prestigious race, won by Seattle Slew, Foolish Pleasure, Fusaichi Pegasus, on their way to Kentucky Derby victories. Secretariat, Genuine Risk, Monarchos and Funnycide also prepped in the 1 1/8 mile event. However, the Grade 1 contest has faded into the woodwork as a legitimate measure of class for Kentucky Derby contestants. Since 2004, none of the top three finishers in the Wood Memorial had an impact on the Kentucky Derby. For the last two years, Wood Memorial runners rounded out the Derby Superfecta in fourth place, as did Tale of Ekati in 2008. Perhaps one of the colts below can reverse the trend for the </font><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/p/c/kentucky_derby_2015_contenders"><font size="3" face="Calibri">2015 Kentucky Derby</font></a><font size="3" face="Calibri">.</font> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="4" face="Calibri">The Favorites:</font></b> <p align="justify"><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/El_Kabier"><b><font size="3" face="Calibri">EL KABEIR</font></b></a><font size="3" face="Calibri"> (Scat Daddy - Great Venue, by Unbridled's Song) has never finished worse than fourth. He’s pretty much ruled the New York Prep races, until Far From Over busted El Kabeir’s winning streak in the Withers. El Kabeir came back to triumph by 2 ¾ lengths in the Gotham over Tiz Shea. The notable point about the victory was that El Kabeir changed his front running style to come from off of the pace. That versatility can only help him with distance in the Wood Memorial. El <strong>Kabeir’s</strong> immediate family is loaded with talent. Four of his dam’s five half siblings own blacktype. </font><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/pedigree_power/Kentucky_Derby_2015_El_Kabeir_Pedigree_Profile_123"><font size="3" face="Calibri">Read his pedigree profile</font></a><font size="3" face="Calibri">.</font> <p align="justify"><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Frosted"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>FROSTED</b> </font></font></a><font size="3" face="Calibri">(Tapit - Fast Cookie, by Deputy Minister) couldn’t compete with the likes of Upstart in Florida. In the Fountain of Youth, Frosted found himself contesting the lead, but couldn’t sustain the run and tired to fourth place. I don’t think this guy likes to go by other horses. Other than outclassing a maiden field, Frosted has been second or third in every start. The pretty gray colt’s dam is a multiple graded stakes winning miler. She’s a half sister to the Champion Juvenile Midshipman. His second dam Fleet Lady is also a multiple graded stakes winner. Frosted should handle the 1 1/8 miles, but I don’t think he’ll get under the wire ahead of the field unless nobody else is up to the task. </font> <p align="justify"><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Daredevil_1"><font size="3" face="Calibri">DAREDEVIL</font></a></b><font size="3" face="Calibri"> (More Than Ready - Chasethewildwind, by Forty Niner) made his three year old season bow in the seven furlong Swale Stakes, finishing a good second after going three wide on the turn chasing a loose on the lead Ready for Rye. It was ten lengths back to the third place horse. Daredevil is a half brother to Donn Handicap (G-1) winner Albertus Maximus and to graded stakes placed Chasethegold. His dam is a half sister to the dam of Forgo Stakes (G-1) hero Here Comes Ben. Daredevil’s second dam Race The Wild Wind is a multiple Grade 2 winner. Daredevil should handle the distance and the competition isn’t too tough. Trainer Todd Pletcher has won two of the last three editions of the Wood Memorial.</font> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="4" face="Calibri">Upset Contenders:</font> </b> <p align="justify"><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Tiz_Shea_D"><font size="3" face="Calibri">TIZ SHEA D</font></a></b><font size="3" face="Calibri"> (Tiznow - Ender's Sister, by A.P. Indy) faced the more experienced El Kabeir on his own ground in the Gotham. The Bill Mott trainee was boxed behind horses when the running began and found a pinhole opening on the rail late to hold second place by a head. It was a very courageous effort for only his second start. Tiz Shea D has the pedigree to love 1 1/8 miles and could handle the Belmont Stakes distance comfortably. His dam is a multiple graded stakes winner at 1 1/16 miles and her full brother Ender’s Shadow is multiple stakes placed. Plenty of back class here, as his third dam is the multiple stakes winning veteran Fit for a Queen. If Tiz Shea D gets a better trip, he could steal the race. Keep an eye on this one.</font> <p align="justify"><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Lieutenant_Colonel"><font size="3" face="Calibri">LIEUTENANT COLONEL</font></a></b><font size="3" face="Calibri"> (Colonel John - Lovely View, by Carson City) was beaten like a new recruit in the Gotham Stakes. His pedigree is stamina over plenty of speed. He may have had an excuse last time out, but I think the distance is too far. Perhaps he can round out the superfecta with a good trip.</font> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="4" face="Calibri">Can’t Recommend:</font></b> <p align="justify"><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Toasting_Master"><font size="3" face="Calibri">TOASTING MASTER</font></a></b><font size="3" face="Calibri"> (Congrats - Broadway Gold, by Seeking the Gold) loves to run on the lead, but he’s finished off of the board in his last three starts. Toasting Master is a half brother to multiple stakes winner R Gypsy Gold, Razorback Handicap hero Golden Lad, and Grade 2 winner and Kentucky Oaks runner-up Broadway’s Alibi. Their dam is a stakes winning half sister to Florida Derby hero and new sire Dialed In. Second dam Miss Doolittle placed in the Schuylerville Stakes (G-2) as a two year old and the second dam Eliza earned Champion 2YO Filly honors. Toasting Master may not want to go much farther than 1 1/16 miles and at this point in his career, he either needs a rest or just isn’t up to this level of competition. </font> <p align="justify"><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Tencendur"><b><font size="3" face="Calibri">TENCENDUR</font></b></a><font size="3" face="Calibri"> (Warrior's Reward - Still Secret, by Hennessy) has watched the gray hind end of El Kabeir pull away in their last two meetings. I don’t see a reversal here. Tencendur has, at best, a miler’s pedigree and also appears to be outclassed.</font> <p align="justify"> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="4" face="Calibri">Selections:</font></b> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Calibri">Race Keys: Four of the last five Wood Memorial winners shipped in from Florida, while the fifth was third in the Gotham. In the last ten years, half of the winners won their prep race. </font> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Calibri">It looks like almost everybody wants to be on the lead or pressing the pace. El Kabeir can sit back and make a move. If he has to go too wide at this distance, he may not sustain the bid. Daredevil fits the race keys, is trained by Pletcher, should handle the distance and shook the rust off in the Swale. Tiz Shea D has the best pedigree in the field for the distance.</font> <p><b><font size="4" face="Calibri">#6 DAREDEVIL</font></b> <p><b><font size="4" face="Calibri">#1 TIZ SHEA D</font></b> <p><b><font size="4" face="Calibri">#5 EL KABEIR</font></b> <p><b><font size="4" face="Calibri">#4 FROSTED</font></b> ThoroFan Handicapper's Cornerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03177519642532691985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7507011268295815218.post-42422709938482139492015-03-27T16:11:00.001-04:002015-03-27T16:11:42.607-04:00Handicapping the 2015 Louisiana Derby<p align="justify"><img title="Derby Trail" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline" border="0" alt="Derby Trail" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-FEgpI5kYSbU/VRW5Ypq7ZrI/AAAAAAAACQU/GKAICMTt7eU/Derby%252520Trail%25255B7%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="111" align="left" height="168"> The <a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/stakes/Louisiana_Derby">Louisiana Derby</a> is one of the final prep races for the Kentucky Derby. The last horse to contest the Fairgrounds feature and win in Kentucky was Funny Cide, in 2003. He finished second in the Louisiana Derby that year to Peace Rules, but turned the tables in Kentucky, where Peace Rules finished third. Since 2003, the 1 1/8 mile Grade 2 event has been a good place to find contenders to hit the board at long odds in Kentucky. In the last two years, Revolutionary, Commanding Curve and Golden Soul all finished second or third in the Kentucky Derby. In 2011, Nehro and Mucho Macho Man finished second and third, respectively, in the Louisiana Derby and repeated that placing five weeks later. The winner of the Louisiana Derby earns 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points and a spot in the starting gate the first Saturday in May. <p align="justify"> <p align="justify"> <h2></h2> <h2><b><font color="#800000" size="4">The Stars</font></b></h2> <p align="justify">This year’s Louisiana Derby big horse is <b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/International_Star">INTERNATIONAL STAR</a></b> (Fusaichi Pegasus - Parlez, by French Deputy). He’s poised to become the first colt since Friesan Fire in 2010 and Pyro in 2009 to sweep the race series of the LeComte, Risen Star and Louisiana Derby. International Star has dominated the LeComte and Risen Star by a combined 3 ½ lengths. Not ultra-impressive, but the colt’s stalking style and strong late kick earns him the highest late pace speed figure in the field. Of more concern is his ability, pedigree wise, to handle 1 1/8 miles. His sire has produced winners at 1 1/8 miles and beyond, however, damsire French Deputy was a top weighted miler and his daughter’s offspring lean more towards sprinter/miler speed. International Star’s half sister Fools in Love won and placed in stakes races up to 1 1/16 miles. Her full brother D C Dancer won the Maryland Million Sprint Handicap. Their dam was an allowance class winner at 1 1/16 miles. International Star’s running style and class may overcome his miler-type pedigree. <p align="justify"><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Mr_Z"><b>MR. Z</b></a> earns the reward as the most experienced, hard knocking, tough luck colt in this crop of three year olds. He’s taken on the best runners from New York to California and everywhere in between. He hasn’t ducked anyone and always gives a top performance. In his last three starts, Mr. Z was out finished by the California monster Dortmund by a neck and was third, to Far Right in the Smarty Jones and Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn. Mr. Z has raced ten times without a break since his debut last June. He may tangle with St. Joe Bay on the front end and still be in the thick of things at the wire. In 2010, Mission Impazible was third in the Southwest Stakes before winning the Louisiana Derby. <p align="justify"><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/War_Story">WAR STORY</a></b> (Northern Afleet - Belle Watling, by Pulpit) is in the supporting actor role here. He’s finished second behind International Star in both Louisiana Preps. War Story is by the sire of Champion Three Year Old Afleet Alex, who won the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. Northern Afleet also sired the Champion sprinter Amazombie. War Story’s dam is a half sister to a stakes winning miler who bore two stakes winning milers, Whisky Romeo and Shared Property. This is the distaff family of Champion Juvenile Filly Epitome. War Story could handle the stretch out here, and his stalker style could propel him to the winner’s circle. <h2></h2> <h2><b><font color="#800000" size="4">Also Featuring</font></b></h2> <p align="justify"><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Stanford_1">STANFORD</a></b> (Malibu Moon - Rosy Humor, by Distorted Humor) ships to Louisiana in search of easier company after a 5 ½ length defeat at the hooves of his stablemate Materiality in the 1 1/8 mile Islamorada Handicap. Stanford veered out in the stretch of the race and was DQ’d to sixth place. Meanwhile, Materiality is expected to contest the Florida Derby. Stanford descends from a noteworthy Claiborne Farm distaff family. Although this immediate branch has yet to bear blacktype winners, Stanford’s second dam Show Me The Roses is a half sister to Champion Johannesburg. So far, Stanford isn’t living up to his illustrious breeding or his hefty $550K price tag. He’s conquered maidens and optional claimers, but hasn’t fared well in two stakes attempts. Perhaps he can rebound here. Never count out a Pletcher horse. <p align="justify"><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Keen_Ice"><b>KEEN ICE</b></a><b> </b>(Curlin - Medomak, by Awesome Again) shipped in to the Fairgrounds for the Risen Star after a poor placing over the speed favoring Gulfstream Park surface in the Holy Bull. The Dale Romans trainee rewarded his connections with a third place finish in that race. Keen Ice is by a Breeders’ Cup Classic hero out of a mare by a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner, so 1 ¼ miles should certainly be within his scope. As for quality, Keen Ice’s dam is a half sister to the G-3 winning miler Coal Play. This is the distaff family of Grade 1 winners Serra Lake, Somali Lemonade, Verrazano, plus multiple graded winners Hungry Island and Al Khali. The 1 1/8 miles and long Fairgrounds stretch should play to Keen Ice’s strengths. However, is he this year’s version of Commanding Curve (who was last year’s version of Golden Soul) or is there something else here? <h2></h2> <h2><b><font color="#800000" size="4">Supporting Roles</font></b></h2> <p align="justify"><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Fusaichi_Flame">FUSAICHI FLAME</a></b> (Fusaichi Pegasus - Merry Mary, by Leestown) has the pedigree of a sprinter/miler. He romped to a 5 ¼ length victory last time out against optional claimers going a mile over the muddy track and has been out of the money only once in his career. He can run from anywhere in the pack. So what’s the problem? His speed figures aren’t that great and he’s taking on tougher company. He could be worth a play for the exotics at long odds and could hit the board with a lifetime best if the top contenders falter. <p align="justify"><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/St_Joe_Bay"><b>ST. JOE BAY</b></a> (Saint Anddan - Dream Ride, by Honor Glide) loves to mix it up early and does his best to stick around at the end of the race to pick up a check. In his first start around two turns, St. Joe Bay was beaten a head for third place by the surging Keen Ice. The million dollar question is – Can St. Joe Bay tussle with the speedy Mr. Z and last at 1 1/8 miles. Perhaps, but I’m not betting on it. <p align="justify"><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Defondo">DEFONDO</a></b> (El Corredor - Blue Hills, by Cure the Blues) isn’t a bad colt, but he was bested by a colt named Bubba Roan in an allowance race last time out at 1 mile 70 yards after being forwardly placed. He’d have to improve quite a bit to have a say here. <p align="justify"><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/A_Day_In_Paradise">A DAY IN PARADISE</a> </b>(Yes It's True - Tiz Paula, by Tiznow) has a speed over stamina pedigree. He was bested 2 ¾ lengths last year at the Fairgrounds by War Story in an optional claimer. In his three year old debut, the Larry Jones trainee easily beat stakes runners in Texas. Nice colt, but his speed figures and pedigree indicate this is a tough spot. <h2></h2> <h2><b><font color="#800000" size="4">Selections</font></b></h2> <p align="justify">Track bias: Four of the last five winners of the Louisiana Derby have been pace pressers and favorites win only 37%. <p align="justify">There’s plenty of early speed in this race. Mr. Z and St. Joes Bay figure to battle it out early and could ensure a fast early pace. War Story and Stanford should get a good position behind the leaders while International Star and Keen Ice bide their time at the back of the pack. War Story could get the jump on International Star, but the breeding on both colts is iffy for the 1 1/8 mile distance. It could be that International Star will overcome his breeding and we know he loves the Fairgrounds. Only two favorites in the last six years have won this race. I’m chickening out and going with International Star. He reminds me too much of Friesan Fire and Pyro. <p><b>#9 INTERNATIONAL STAR</b> <p><b>#2 MR. Z</b> <p><b>#7 KEEN ICE</b> <p><b>#6 WAR STORY</b> ThoroFan Handicapper's Cornerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03177519642532691985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7507011268295815218.post-686506828667512712015-02-06T15:49:00.001-05:002015-02-06T15:53:58.252-05:00Handicapping the Withers Stakes<p align="justify"><font color="#800000"><strong><font size="3" face="Calibri">Dortmund vs. Firing Line in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes </font><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/Floridaf/Handicapping_the_Robert_B_Lewis_Stakes_201526_123" target="_blank"><font size="3" face="Calibri">here</font></a><font size="3" face="Calibri">.</font></strong></font></p> <p align="justify"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"></font></font> </p> <p align="justify"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><img title="Aqueduct starting gate" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline" border="0" alt="Aqueduct starting gate" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-WJHIwWx1HfI/VNUozqLR76I/AAAAAAAACPY/6hWRskwEAps/Aqueduct%252520starting%252520gate%25255B5%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="155" align="left" height="108"> The 2015 Withers Stakes (G-3) pits Jerome Stakes hero El Kabeir against a seemingly over matched field of last out maiden winners. Early February is when the less precocious runners begin to mature and improve. Kiaran McLaughlin has been hogging the Wither’s winner’s circle. He’s had his picture taken three times in the last ten years. Todd Pletcher has captured the 1 1/16 mile race twice in that time frame. Both of them have contestants who, if they run as expected, could pull an upset on the pretty gray El Kabeir<strong>.</strong></font></font></p> <h2></h2> <h2><b><font color="#800000" size="4" face="Calibri">The Big Hoss</font></b></h2> <p align="justify"><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/El_Kabier"><b><font size="3" face="Calibri"><img title="El_Kabeir_1" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline" border="0" alt="El_Kabeir_1" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-mMvVSHj4FRk/VNUo0ClSMkI/AAAAAAAACPc/aNE1l7o9vK8/El_Kabeir_1%25255B4%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="204" align="left" height="135"> EL KABEIR</font></b></a><font size="3" face="Calibri"> (Scat Daddy - Great Venue, by Unbridled's Song) kicked off his three year old season with a scintillating victory in the 1 mile 70 yard Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct last month, galloping under the wire 4 ½ lengths ahead of his nearest competitor. El Kabeir’s immediate family is loaded with talent. Four of his dam’s five half siblings own blacktype. Read his pedigree profile <a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/pedigree_power/Kentucky_Derby_2015_El_Kabeir_Pedigree_Profile_123" target="_blank"><strong>here</strong></a>.</font></p> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font> </p> <h2> </h2> <h2><b><font color="#800000" size="4" face="Calibri">Contenders</font></b></h2> <p align="justify"><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Far_From_Over"><b><font size="3" face="Calibri">FAR FROM OVER</font></b></a><font size="3" face="Calibri"> (Blame - Alchemist, by A.P. Indy) won his debut on December12. He was briefly headed but determinedly came back at the wire. It was more than six lengths back to the third place finisher. The time for the 1 mile 70 yards was 1:43.11, which was the second-fastest time for that distance in the racing week. For comparison, El Kabeir won the Jerome in 1:44.69. Far From Over has the best pedigree in the field and the farther the better for him. He is a half brother to a listed winner and to the multiple G-1 stakes placed <strong>And Why Not</strong>. His dam placed in 1 1/8 mile Grade 3 stakes. She’s a full sister to Turnback the Alarm Handicap heroine <b>ALTESSE</b>. Far From Over’s second dam is <b>ALDIZA</b>, who won graded events from 6 ½ furlongs to 1 1/8 miles. Far From Over is inbred to the blue hen <b>COURTLY DEE</b> through full sisters Althea, the second dam of Blame’s sire Arch, and Aishah, who is Far From Over’s third dam. The todd Pletcher trainee worked a second to last bullet in preparation for the Withers. </font> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font> <p align="justify"><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/March_1"><b><font size="3" face="Calibri">MARCH</font></b></a><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"> (Blame - Lifeinthefastlane, by Unbridled's Song) earned his maiden victory by a neck in his second start. Like Far From Over, March is a son of Breeders’ Cup Classic hero Blame and March should improve with maturity and distance. He’s a half brother to Bay Shore Stakes (G-3) hero <strong>EIGHTYFIVEINAFIFTY</strong>. There’s little blacktype in March’s Claiborne-bred immediate female family, however, this is the distaff line of the Grade 1 winning sire<strong> SEEKING THE GOLD</strong>, Champion Juvenile Filly <strong>QUEEN OF THE STAGE</strong>, Remsen hero <strong>FAST PLAY</strong> and <strong>REVIEWER</strong>, sire of the legendary <strong>RUFFIAN</strong>. Conditioned by Chad Brown, March prepped with a pre-race bullet breeze.</font></font> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font> <p align="justify"><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Classy_Class"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>CLASSY CLASS</b> </font></font></a><font size="3" face="Calibri">(Discreetly Mine - Collegiate, by Saarland) was tossed into the 1 1/8 mile Remsen last year after a score at 6 ½ furlongs. Not surprising that he weakened in the stretch. Classy Class’s stakes placed dam is a half sister to a stakes winning turf miler and stakes winning sprinter. The colt receives stamina attributes through his damsire, but his sire and distaff line strongly lean towards miler speed. Classy Class may find 1 1/16 miles at the top of his scope. The Kiaran McLaughlin trainee draws the rail which could help.</font> <h2></h2> <h2 align="left"><font color="#800000" size="4" face="Calibri">Long Shot Chance</font></h2> <p align="justify"><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Unrivaled_2"><b><font size="3" face="Calibri">UNRIVALED</font></b></a><font size="3" face="Calibri"> (Super Saver - Safely, by Unbridled) began his career last July in sprints, but it wasn’t until late December when he put it all together, easily out distancing a full field of maidens going a mile at PARX. Yes, the time was a yawn inducing 1:43.52, however, Unrivaled galloped to a 15 length win, little more than a paid breeze. So what’s so special about this colt? He’s an April foal whose pedigree suggests that Unrivaled should improve with maturity and could handle classic distances. His dam is a full sister to <b>HONEST MAN</b>, who hit his best stride as a four and five year old, with victories in the Mineshaft Handicap at 1 1/6 miles and the 1 1/8 miles Philip H. Iselin Stakes, both Grade 3 events. Unrivaled’s second dam <b>OATH</b> won the Spinaway (G-1) and she’s a half sister to Champion Juvenile <b>WAR PASS</b>. Unrivaled could be one of those colts who will mature rapidly. </font> <p align="justify"><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Tencendur"><b><font size="3" face="Calibri">TENCENDUR</font></b></a><font size="3" face="Calibri"> (Warrior's Reward - Still Secret, by Hennessy) got up to beat state-bred maidens by ¾ length in his last race. He was pinned on the inside for most of the race with nowhere to go and had a tough time getting out for running room. Once he was free, the George Weaver colt lengthened stride nicely. The son of the top ten Freshman Sire is a half brother to the multiple restricted stakes winner <b>MOTHER RUSSIA</b>. In his debut, Tencendur was beaten by over six lengths by March On. Tencendur’s speed figure improved in his second start and he gets a jockey upgrade to Cornelio Velasquez. </font> <h2></h2> <h2><b><font color="#800000" size="4" face="Calibri">Not today</font></b></h2> <p align="justify"><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/General_Bellamy"><b><font size="3" face="Calibri">GENERAL BELLAMY</font></b></a><font size="3" face="Calibri"> (Bellamy Road - Sweet Again, by Awesome Again) had an excuse in the Jerome, as he bobbled at the start of the race. He finished a one-paced third, never gaining ground at any point. The colt’s dam is an unraced daughter of Alabama Stakes (G-1) winner <b>SWEET SYMPHONY</b>. Slow but steady describes this colt. His speed figures are improving, but very slowly, and his works are conservative, but steady. Slow and steady may win some races, but not at 1 1/16 miles at Aqueduct. </font> <h2></h2> <h2><b><font size="4" face="Calibri">SELECTIONS</font></b></h2> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Calibri">Track bias: Early speed rules on Aqueduct’s inner track. 20% of the meet’s winners at a mile and beyond have wired the field. Pace pressers have finished first 46% of the time.</font> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Calibri">El Kabeir is a free-running colt who likes to wing it on or near the lead. That and his far outside post, combined with his miler pedigree could make El Kabeir a vulnerable favorite if one of the other contenders takes it to him early. Could a last out maiden winner beat the Champ? Sure, Todd Pletcher did it with Revolutionary in 2013. His contender Far From Over has the speed and could pull an upset. </font> <p align="justify"><b><font size="3" face="Calibri">#2 FAR FROM OVER</font></b> <p align="justify"><b><font size="3" face="Calibri">#7 EL KABEIR</font></b> <p align="justify"><b><font size="3" face="Calibri">#3 MARCH</font></b> <p align="justify"><b><i><font size="3" face="Calibri">#5 UNRIVALED – longshot play</font></i></b> ThoroFan Handicapper's Cornerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03177519642532691985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7507011268295815218.post-67204611306468495722015-01-31T11:24:00.001-05:002015-01-31T11:28:50.275-05:00Sam F. Davis Stakes – Handicapping the Race<p align="justify"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><strong> <font color="#800000" size="4"><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/pedigree_power/Handicapping_the_San_Vicente_Stakes_123" target="_blank">GET THE SAN VICENTE STAKES HANDICAPPING SELECTIONS AT HORSE RACING NATION</a></font></strong></font></font></p> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Calibri"><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-p1hDdp7UlWM/VM0Cig1Y4NI/AAAAAAAACPA/lg73UAnaB0w/s1600-h/Tampa%252520Bay%252520Starting%252520Gate%25255B8%25255D.jpg"><img title="Tampa Bay Starting Gate" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline" border="0" alt="Tampa Bay Starting Gate" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-iZyHU3JFYqA/VM0Ci7GfcnI/AAAAAAAACPE/iznLp1l6vzo/Tampa%252520Bay%252520Starting%252520Gate_thumb%25255B4%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="244" align="left" height="184"></a> During the past 30 editions of the Sam F. Davis Stakes, several horses who have won or placed in the race have continued on to do well either on the Triple Crown trail or in the top mid-summer races. Blue Grass Cat later finished second in both the 2006 Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. A year later, Any Given Saturday won the Haskell Invitational (G-1), and the following year, Musket Man was third in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. In 2031, this prep race for the Tampa Bay Derby was removed as a Kentucky Derby Points Qualifier and we’ve seen a loss in quality in the last two fields.</font></p> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Calibri">That hasn’t stopped twelve hopefuls from entering this year’s 1 1/16 mile Grade Three event. The field consists of the usual last out maiden winners, optional claimers looking for blacktype and some listed stakes runners. Nine of the twelve colts won or placed in their last start. </font> <h2></h2> <h2 align="center"><b><font color="#800000" size="4" face="Calibri">The Favorites</font></b></h2> <p align="justify"><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Amis_Flatter"><font size="3" face="Calibri">AMI'S FLATTER</font></a></b><font size="3" face="Calibri"> (Flatter - Galloping Ami, by Victory Gallop) made up ground in the one mile Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream last time out, finishing second by 1 ¾ lengths to the speedy Bluegrass Singer. That one came back to finish third recently in the Holy Bull Stakes (G-2). Ami’s Flatter should excel with distance. He’s a half brother to <strong>ARAGORN AMI</strong>, who won the Martha Washington Stakes. Ami’s Flatter’s dam is an unraced full sister to stakes winner <b>VICTORIOUS AMI</b>, dam of multiple stakes winner <b>AMI’S HOLIDAY</b>, a winner from 1 1/16 miles to 1 ½ miles. Ami’s Flatter came back to work a post-race bullet and should be ready to take a step forward. </font> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font> <p align="justify"><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Catalina_Red"><font size="3" face="Calibri">CATALINA RED</font></a></b><font size="3" face="Calibri"> (Munnings - Lovely Dream, by Freud) has speed on the rail. He showed his love for the Tampa circuit winning both of his starts at the track. The son of Munnings won his maiden while setting a stakes record of 1:09.32 for six furlongs in the Inaugural Stakes, winning by 7 ¼ lengths. Next out, Catalina Red sat slightly off of the pace in the seven-furlong Pasco Stakes before beating eventual Hutcheson Stakes runner-up X Y Jet in a track record time of 1:21.40. Catalina Red’s pedigree is speed oriented. His sire’s progeny haven’t won beyond a mile seventy yards. Damsire Freud, a full brother to Giant’s Causeway, offers some stamina, but Catalina Red’s distaff line is primarily sprinter/miler oriented. He’s a half brother to <b>Whisky Bravo</b>, a stakes placed turf sprinter and Catalina Red’s first five dams all own minor blacktype. The Chad Stewart barn is 0-7 in graded stakes. </font> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font> <p align="justify"><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Ocean_Night"><font size="3" face="Calibri">OCEAN KNIGHT</font></a></b><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"> (Curlin - Ocean Goddess, by Stormy Atlantic) Ocean Knight made short work of a herd of maidens running six furlongs at Aqueduct last month in a sharp 1:11.94, while being geared down. Ocean Knight’s sire two-time Horse of the Year Curlin is making his mark as one of the best studs in America. Ocean Knight’s dam is a half sister to the stakes winning sprinter <b>LIBBY'S HALO</b> and stakes placed <strong>Mister Alimony.</strong> Conditioned by Kiaran McLaughlin, Ocean Knight had a strong four furlong breeze at Palm Meadows in his last work. </font></font> <h2></h2> <h2 align="center"><b><font color="#800000" size="4" face="Calibri">Spoilers</font></b></h2> <p align="justify"><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/My_Johnny_Be_Good"><font size="3" face="Calibri">MY JOHNNY BE GOOD</font></a></b><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"> (Colonel John - Im So Fine, by Elusive Quality) flashed his love for Tampa in a big way with a 14 length win over optional claimers in a swift 1:09.33 for six furlongs. He’s Crittenden’s stablemate and appears to be better placed here. There’s little blacktype in My Johnny Be Good’s first two generations, but he has hails from the same family as Grade 1 winning sprinter <strong>THE LUMBER GUY</strong>. The colt worked a pre-race bullet and should improve in his second start off of a layoff.</font></font> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font> <p align="justify"><b><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font></b> <p align="justify"><b><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font></b> <p align="justify"><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Royal_Son"><font size="3" face="Calibri">ROYAL SON</font></a></b><font size="3" face="Calibri"> (Tiznow - Mama Nadine, by A.P. Indy) won his maiden last out upon disqualification of the winner. The Todd Pletcher trainee has the pedigree of a late-bloomer and should love Classic distances. Royal Son’s dam <b>MAMA NADINE</b> won a stakes race at one mile seventy yards. Royal Son’s second dam <b>COUNTESS DIANA</b> was a Champion Two Year Old Filly. In five of the last nine years, Todd Pletcher has won the Sam Davis Stakes, including last year with <b>VINCEREMOS</b>.</font> <h2></h2> <p align="justify"><strong><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font></strong> <h2 align="center"><strong><font color="#800000" size="4" face="Calibri">Long Shots Worth a Look</font></strong></h2> <p align="justify"><strong><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font></strong> <p align="justify"><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Divining_Rod"><font size="3" face="Calibri">DIVINING ROD</font></a></b><font size="3" face="Calibri"> (Tapit - Precious Kitten, by Catienus) won his debut in an off the turf mile contest at Laurel. Next time out against Crittenden, Divining Rod was stuck on the inside and wasn’t able to get a clear run until late. His dam is a multiple Grade 1 winner on the lawn and a full sister to Champion Turf Horse and sire <b>KITTEN’S JOY</b>. A half sister to Precious Kitten bore Champion Two Year Old Filly <b>DREAMING OF ANNA</b>, who won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G-1) over dirt and the Summer Stakes (G-3) over turf. By the hot sire Tapit, Divining Rod could develop into a versatile, top-class runner.</font> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font> <p align="justify"><strong><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font></strong> <p align="justify"><strong><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font></strong> <p align="justify"><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Coomer"><font size="3" face="Calibri">COOMER</font></a></b><font size="3" face="Calibri"> (Midshipman - Dixie Satin, by Dynaformer) picked a tough place to make his first start of the year. He won impressively against $50,000 claimers last November at Churchill going 1 1/16 miles. He has a speed over stamina pedigree and there’s some minor blacktype in the second generation of his distaff line. Coomer breezed a pre-race five furlong bullet. I always respect entries from the Maker barn and Leparoux stays on the colt. Could be something here.</font> <h2></h2> <h2 align="center"><b><font color="#800000" size="4" face="Calibri">Toss</font></b></h2> <p align="justify"><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Crittenden_1"><font size="3" face="Calibri">CRITTENDEN</font></a></b><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"> (Distorted Humor - Calla Lily, by Pulpit) won his last two races at Tampa, including a 2 ¼ length score over Divining Rod last time out. What’s not to like? The Eoin Harty conditioned colt was trounced 17 lengths in his only dirt start. This colt’s future appears to be on the turf, but naturally, when one has an aspiring three year old at this time of year, it never hurts to take a shot in a Derby prep. He’s a half brother to the G-2 stakes placed turf runner <strong>Side Road</strong>. Crittenden’s dam is multiple stakes placed over the lawn and was unplaced in three starts on dirt. She’s a half sister to Arlington Million (G-1) hero <strong>HARDEST CORE</strong>. Yes, Crittenden worked a second to last bullet on the dirt, however, a controlled work on dirt cannot emulate race conditions.</font></font> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font> <p align="justify"><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Bandages"><font size="3" face="Calibri">BANDAGES</font></a></b><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"> (Any Given Saturday - Beauty Is, by Personal Flag) is Catalina Red’s less accomplished stablemate. He won his maiden at Tampa and has two five furlong works under his girth. Four of his six half siblings own blacktype, including the multiple stakes veterans <strong>WAYZATA BAY </strong>and<strong> YOURNOTTHEBOSSOFME</strong>. Bandages should enjoy the distance, but his late pace speed figures are poor. </font></font> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font> <p align="justify"><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Brother_Bobo"><font size="3" face="Calibri">BROTHER BOBO</font></a></b><font size="3" face="Calibri"> (Kantharos - Private Prom Party, by Private Terms) was a distant sixth when stretching out to a mile against stakes company in the Mucho Macho Man. Freshman sire Kantharos is getting offspring who are showing distance limitations past a mile. Brother Bobo is a half brother to the talented stakes winning sprinter <strong>RIBO BOBO</strong> and stakes placed sprinter<b> </b><strong>Private Money Game</strong><strong>.</strong> The trainer/jockey combo of Servis and Saez are 0-10.</font> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font> <p align="justify"><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/G_Five"><font size="3" face="Calibri">G FIVE</font></a></b><font size="3" face="Calibri"> (Flashy Bull - Fly Don't Drive, by Harlan's Holiday) can’t beat optional claimers at Gulfstream or Gulfstream West. Despite this race being at Tampa, there’s a solid field in the Sam Davis and G Five is outclassed on paper. G Five’s dam is a half to a multiple Grade 3 sprinter and another half sister bore Del Mar Oaks heroine <b>SUMMER</b> <b>SOIREE</b>. G Five hasn’t shown much speed and this seems to be an odd place for the Pletcher trainee. </font> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font> <p align="justify"><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Bears_Personality"><font size="3" face="Calibri">BEARS PERSONALITY</font></a></b><font size="3" face="Calibri"> (Awesome Again - Yearly Attitude, by Event of the Year) will be tackling dirt for the first time in his five race career. He needed time to get his act together at Woodbine, but he won his last two starts. There is one blacktype earner in his first three distaff generations. Bears Personality has average to good works at Palm Meadows, but his late pace speed figures are poor. He likes to be up near the pace and will be forced to go wide from his outside post. </font> <h2></h2> <h2 align="center"><b><font color="#800000" size="4" face="Calibri">Selections</font></b></h2> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Calibri">Only two of the last ten winners of the Sam Davis Stakes won over the track last time out. Front runners and pace pressers have had the most success in the race. The rail is winning at 17% this meet.</font></p><b> <p align="justify"><br><font size="3" face="Calibri">#3 AMI'S FLATTER</font></b></p> <p align="justify"><b><font size="3" face="Calibri">#2 ROYAL SON</font></b> <p align="justify"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>#1 CATALINA RED</b><b></b></font></font> <p align="justify"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b><i>#5 DIVINING ROD – longshot play</i></b><i></i></font></font> ThoroFan Handicapper's Cornerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03177519642532691985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7507011268295815218.post-41253720451507721162015-01-10T10:33:00.001-05:002015-01-10T10:34:21.198-05:002015 Kentucky Derby Trail – Sham Stakes<p><img title="KENTUCKY DERBY TRAIL" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline" border="0" alt="KENTUCKY DERBY TRAIL" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-QyIcGOuUHIM/VLFGQlQhe_I/AAAAAAAABpo/awcysjDOeZs/KENTUCKY%252520DERBY%252520TRAIL%25255B10%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="154" align="left" height="238"> The <a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/stakes/Sham">Sham Stakes (G-3)</a> was named in honor of the 1973 underdog who chased Secretariat through the Triple Crown and ultimately had his heart broken in the Belmont Stakes. The well-bred colt finished second to Secretariat in the Kentucky Derby, despite bashing his head against the starting gate so hard he lost two teeth. Sham’s time under the wire was a sub 2:00 and faster than Monarchos' winning time in 2001. In any other year, Sham would have been a Triple Crown winner. Sham was a superstar in his own right, equaling the track record for 1 1/8 miles in the Santa Anita Derby. <p>Winners of the two-turn mile event haven’t had much impact on the Kentucky Derby. Since the Grade Three race was first contested in 2001, only two colts have hit the board in both races; Empire Maker finished second in both races and in 2005, Giacomo was third in the Sham before a successful trip in the Derby. <p>A field of eight colts will contest this year’s edition of the one mile Sham Stakes, the first step onto the <a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/p/c/kentucky_derby_2015_contenders">2015 Kentucky Derby Trail</a> for California hopefuls. Derby points will be awarded and the contest is carded as the sixth race. <p>The kings of California racing, Bob Baffert and Jerry Hollendorfer, are noticeably absent. Instead, Peter Miller, the Wesley Ward of California, sends out three prospects, including the likely favorite, Calculator. <p> <h3>The Favorite:</h3> <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Calculator_1">CALCULATOR</a></b> (In Summation - Back to Basics, by Alphabet Soup) has been a model of consistency and class while chasing American Pharoah in the Del Mar Futurity and Frontrunner Stakes, both G-1 events. Calculator’s unraced dam is a half to the stakes veteran turf sprinter <b>ATTICUS KRISTY</b>, his full sister stakes winner <b>FIERY DANCER</b> and to Lexington Stakes hero <b>DISTORTED REALITY</b>. This is the distaff family of Preakness champ <b>SHACKLEFORD</b> and his Grade 1 winning sister <b>LADY JOANNE</b>. Calculator was scratched from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile due to a foot injury. However, he’s back in action and worked a pre-race bullet. Despite being a maiden, Calculator is the most accomplished colt in the field. <p> <h3>Surface Switch:</h3> <p>Two colts will try to add their names to the Derby Trail, but first, they must pass the basic test of wanting to run over dirt. <p>Only two other colts in the race own blacktype placings, both stablemates of Calculator. Neither colt earned their stakes earnings over dirt. <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Rock_Shandy">ROCK SHANDY</a></b> (Lemon Drop Kid - Panthera, by Storm Cat) has made all three starts over the lawn, yet his pedigree is diversified to handle just about any surface. He’s a half to the stakes winning turf mare <b>ANEGADA</b> (by Arch). Rock Shandy dam is a half sister to Hollywood Derby hero and sire <strong>BRAHMS, </strong>and stakes winner <strong>OLYMPIC. </strong>Panthera is also a half sister to the hardy, popular <b>La Reina</b>, who won the Tempted Stakes (G-3) at a mile over dirt and was nosed out for the win by eventual Champion Ashado in the 1 1/8 mile Demoiselle as a two year old. Rock Shandy hails from one of the classiest female families around. His second dam <b>QUEENA</b> was 1991 Champion Older Mare. Her half sister <b>TOO CHIC</b> was also a Grade 1 winner. She and her daughters have produced G-1 winner <b>CHIC SHRINE</b>, multiple graded stakes veterans <b>AL KHALI</b>, <b>SERRA LAKE</b>, <b>SOARING EMPIRE, HUNGRY ISLAND, EL PADRINO, SOMALI LEMONADE</b>, and <b>RASTA FARIAN</b>. Rock Shandy fourth dam Remedia is a blue hen. <p> <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Papacoolpapacool">PAPACOOLPAPACOOL</a></b> (Temple City - Sainttwok, by Saint Ballado) was part of the blanket finish in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf, finishing third, a bare neck behind the winner. Papacoolpapacool is a half to juvenile stakes placed <strong>Dehaven. </strong>The gelding’s first crop sire Temple City gets winners over all surfaces and most of Papacoolpapacool’s half siblings are winners over dirt and or mud.<strong> </strong>There’s some minor blacktype in the third generation of Papacoolpapacool’s pedigree, but overall, this is a modest breeding. <p> <h3>Surface Switch Part Duex:</h3> <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/St_Joe_Bay">ST. JOE BAY</a></b> (Saint Anddan - Dream Ride, by Honor Glide) outclassed maiden claimers by ten lengths over the Santa Anita dirt before switching to Del Mar’s Polytrack to finish third in the Bob Hope Stakes (G-3). He next finished fourth in the Cecil B. DeMille Stakes (G-3) over the lawn, beaten only two lengths for the whole enchilada and nosed out for third by his stablemate Rock Shandy. St. Joe Bay’s dam is a half sister to the multiple stakes winner sprinter <b>OUTFLANKER</b>. Other than that, there’s no blacktype in the immediate distaff line. St. Joe Bay’s third dam is three-time Champion mare <b>SUSAN’S GIRL</b>. St. Joe Bay has Rasmussen Factor inbreeding (inbred to a blue hen within the first five generations) to <b>WEEKEND SURPRISE</b> through her sons <b>A.P. INDY</b>, the sire of <b>SAINT ANDDAN</b> and A.P. Indy’s half brother <b>HONOR GRADES</b>, sire of <b>HONOR GLIDE</b>. So why is this important to the handicapper? Rasmussen Factor occurs in roughly 4% of the racing population, yet 11% of the stakes winners are inbred to blue hens. Approximately 10% of Grade 1 winners carry this type of inbreeding. <p> <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Pioneerof_The_West">PIONEEROF THE WEST</a></b> (Pioneerof the Nile - Del Mar Cat, by Forestry) was second over the dirt before winning his maiden on Polytrack. Next out, he bombed in the Eddie Logan on the lawn and he’s turning around in 15 days. The colt is modestly bred with no blacktype winners in his first two generations. Corey Nakatani has had the most success with this colt and will be back on board. <p> <h3>Trying to Step Up:</h3> <p>The remainder of the Sham Stakes is filled with last out maiden winners or colts who were unplaced in other stake races. Six of the last ten Sham Stakes heroes were last out maiden or allowance winners. <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Rockinatten">ROCKINATTEN</a></b> (High Cotton - Suite Ten, by Rock Hard Ten) added blinkers and stretched out for his maiden win at Calder…uh, Gulfstream Park West, in his last start. After bolting to an 8 ¾ length victory, the colt was sold and relocated to the barn of Doug O’Neil. There’s no blacktype in his immediate distaff family, however, Rockinatten’s second dam is a half sister to the veteran handicap horse <b>STUDENT COUNCIL</b>. <p> <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Unblunted">UNBLUNTED</a></b> (Sharp Humor - Bright Orange, by Bright Launch) won his maiden at Santa Anita but in his first try against winners over Tapeta in the Gold Rush Stakes, the colt was wide and finished fifth. Like many others in here Unblunted is non-descript. His dam is a half to a minor stakes winner, but overall, Unblunted has a modest distaff line. <p> <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Hero_Ten_All">HERO TEN ALL</a></b> (Rock Hard Ten - Silky Smooth, by Mr. Greeley) won his maiden at second asking when stretching out to a mile at Los Al. His dam is a multiple stakes winning turf sprinter/miler and she’s a half sister to Kentucky Cup Classic Stakes hero <b>SHANIKO</b>, who set a new track record for 1 1/8 miles in that Grade 2 event. Hero Ten All’s second dam is a stakes winning half sister to the dam of Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf heroine <b>SHARED ACCOUNT</b>. <h2></h2> <p><strong></strong><strong></strong><b></b> <h2 align="center"><b><font color="#800000" size="4">SELECTIONS</font></b></h2> <p>Since the inception of the Sham Stakes, all winners have finished fourth or better in their prep race. Nine of the last ten winners won their last start. <p>There is a very strong speed bias at Santa Anita this meet. 67% of the pace setters have won. No mid-pack runners or closers have been successful. The horse to beat is Calculator. <p><b>CALCULATOR</b> is the horse to beat – he has the class, running style and is facing a much softer field. Today could be the day that he finally steps foot in the winner’s circle. <b>ROCKINATTEN</b> is the second favorite, but I’m wary of this guy. His final time in Florida was average and the field of $42K maidens was very suspect. Additionally, O’Neil only wins 6% first time out with his barn. St. Joe Bay breaks from post #1 and should be right there in the mix. <b>HERO TEN ALL</b> has the wrong running style, but he’ll be picking them up late and can ruin somebody’s trifecta. Throw out that last by <b>Pioneerof the West</b> and his speed figures aren’t all that bad. <b>ST. JOE BAY</b> breaks from post #1 and has the running style to be dangerous. If <b>PAPACOOLPAPACOOL </b>handles the dirt, he could surprise them all! <p><b>#7 CALCULATOR (8-5)</b> <p><b>#8 HERO TEN ALL (4-1)</b> <p><b>#3 ROCKINATTEN (7-2)</b> <p><b><i>#2 Pioneerof the West </i></b><b><i>– longshot pick (12-1)</i></b> ThoroFan Handicapper's Cornerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03177519642532691985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7507011268295815218.post-39148374810548934862015-01-01T17:07:00.001-05:002015-01-01T17:08:23.430-05:00El Kabeir vs. the Rest in Jerome Stakes<p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS"><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-BdPxA4Vwg8Q/VKXFLmFu11I/AAAAAAAABlM/KLirMP1ex58/s1600-h/KENTUCKY%252520DERBY%252520TRAIL%25255B3%25255D.jpg"><img title="KENTUCKY DERBY TRAIL" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline" border="0" alt="KENTUCKY DERBY TRAIL" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-wLPC4FPgbUA/VKXFLwX_WLI/AAAAAAAABlQ/110hyZdEZb8/KENTUCKY%252520DERBY%252520TRAIL_thumb%25255B1%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="140" align="left" height="244"></a> The </font><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/race/2015_Jerome"><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS">Jerome Stakes</font></a><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS"> kicks off is the first New York prep race for colts aiming to enter the starting gate in the Kentucky Derby. The Withers, Gotham and Wood Memorial make up the quadrumvirate. </font> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS">Eight colts will take on the morning line favorite, </font><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/El_Kabier"><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS">El Kabeir</font></a><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS">, who was last seen winning the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Read his </font><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/pedigree_power/Kentucky_Derby_2015_El_Kabeir_Pedigree_Profile_123"><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS">pedigree profile</font></a><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS">.</font> <p align="justify"><b><font color="#800000" size="3" face="Trebuchet MS">Greatest Challenge:</font></b> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS">The only colt in the field with blacktype is </font><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Nasa"><b><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS">Nasa</font></b></a><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS"> (Smarty Jones - Shootforthestars, by Seattle Slew). The bay colt galloped to a 2 ½ length victory in the restricted Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes, a race his sire won. Like the popular 2004 Kentucky Derby champ, Nasa races for the same connections as his sire. Nasa has a quality pedigree. He’s a full brother to the G-1 winning sprinter <strong>CENTRALINTELIGENCE</strong>; a ¾ brother to My Elusive Star and a half to </font><a href="https://www.brisnet.com/php/brisclub/AprOnline/report.php?foal_id=MjYwMjU0OQ%3D%3D&mare_id=MjYwMjU0OQ%3D%3D"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Trebuchet MS"><strong>General Consensus</strong></font></a><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS"> and <strong>Golden Rainbow</strong>, all stakes placed.<strong> </strong>Nasa’s unraced dam is a half sister to<strong> </strong>Super Derby (G-2) champ <strong>FANTASTICAT</strong>. Their dam <strong>LOTTA DANCING</strong> (by Alydar) is a graded stakes winner and third dam <strong>LOTKA</strong> (by Danzig) was a multiple graded stakes winner from a mile to 1 ½ miles. Like El Kabeir, Nasa has won each of his victories on the lead. </font> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS"></font> <p align="justify"><b><font color="#800000" size="3" face="Trebuchet MS">Allowance Winners:</font></b> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS">Three Jerome Stake’s entrants won at the allowance level last time out.</font> <p align="justify"><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Mini_Cosmo"><b><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS">Mini Cosmo</font></b></a><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS"> (Unbridled Energy - Eyedontblink, by El Corredor) won his debut, but was nosed out for third by Nasa in his next start. Mini Cosmo came back to beat allowance foes at PARX by 1 ½ lengths. Mini Cosmo has no blacktype earners in his first three generations.</font> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS"></font> <p align="justify"><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Now_We_Are_Free"><b><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS">Now We Are Free</font></b></a><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS"> (First Samurai - Ice Cool Kitty, by Tomorrows Cat) enters with a two-race win streak under his girth. After besting maiden claimers by 1 ½ lengths at 1 1/16 miles, the Michelle Nevin trainee beat allowance foes by a head. Now We Are Free’s dam is a multiple stakes winner from six furlongs to 1 1/8 miles. There isn’t much blacktype in his family, however, the colt is inbred to the good mare Sand Buggy through full brothers <b>DIXIELAND BAND, </b>First Samurai’s damsire and <b>NORTHROP</b>, Now We Are Free’s third damsire. </font> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS"></font> <p align="justify"><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Ackeret"><b><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS">Ackeret</font></b></a><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS"> (Mach Ride - Lady Zieg, by Touch Gold) sandwiched a loss in a listed stakes between his maiden and allowance victories. All three starts were at six furlongs. Ackeret’s dam is a half sister to the turf stakes veteran <b>CLASSIC CAMPAIGN</b> and Ackeret’s second dam is a G-3 stakes veteran over the lawn. Ackert’s owners won the 2013 Jerome with <strong>VYJACK</strong>. </font> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS"></font> <p align="justify"><b><font color="#800000" size="3" face="Trebuchet MS">Getting another chance:</font></b> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS">Todd Pletcher sends out two charges who disappointed in the Remsen Stakes, where they finished last and second to last.</font> <p align="justify"><font color="#000000" size="3" face="Trebuchet MS"><strong><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Ostrolenka">Ostrolenka</a></strong></font> <font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS">(Musket Man - Pumpkin's Pride, by Louis Quatorze) raced four and five wide in the Remsen and gave up by the half, fading to 32 lengths behind Leave the Light On. He owns victories at the state-bred level. Ostrolenka is a half brother to multiple stakes placed miler <b>Great Gracie Dane</b> (by Royal Academy). We have to go back a few generations to find the class in his distaff line. Third dam is Champion Filly and blue hen <b>QUEEN EMPRESS</b>. She’s the fifth dam of Champion Older Mare <b>JEWEL PRINCESS</b>.</font> <p align="justify"><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Royal_Burgh"><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS"><strong>Royal Burgh</strong></font></a><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS"> (Street Sense - Amazed by Grace, by Bowman's Band) for another try for a graded stakes win. After winning his maiden by a neck, Royal Burgh bobbled at the start of the Remsen and was never in the game, finishing 28 lengths behind Leave the Light On. There’s little blacktype in Royal Burgh’s female family, although his dam is a stakes winning sprinter and placed in a grade three race. </font> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS"></font> <p align="justify"><b><font color="#800000" size="3" face="Trebuchet MS">Bringing up the field:</font></b> <p align="justify"><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/General_Bellamy"><b><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS">General Bellamy</font></b></a><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS"> (Bellamy Road - Sweet Again, by Awesome Again) found the third time is the charm, winning his maiden by 3 ½ lengths going a mile at Aqueduct. The colt’s dam is an unraced daughter of Alabama Stakes (G-1) winner <b>SWEET SYMPHONY</b>. Bill Mott trained the G-1 winner and also trains her grandson. </font> <p align="justify"><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Tencendur"><b><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS">Tencendur</font></b></a><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS"> (Warrior's Reward - Still Secret, by Hennessy) is still a maiden. The son of the top ten Freshman Sire is a half brother to the multiple restricted stakes winner <b>MOTHER RUSSIA</b>. </font> <h2></h2> <h2 align="center"><b><font color="#800000" size="4" face="Trebuchet MS">Selections</font></b></h2> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS">There are no world beaters here and it looks like a good opportunity for El Kabeir to pick up an easy check and more points towards the Kentucky Derby. However, there’s a lot of speed in here. Nasa, Ostrolenka, Now We Are Free and possibly Mini Cosmo could all vie for the lead.</font> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS">Nasa may give the graded stakes winner his toughest challenge. Roya Burgh could rebound and Ackeret could get a nice stalking trip. </font> <p align="justify"><b><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS">#9 EL KABEIR</font></b> <p align="justify"><b><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS">#8 NASA</font></b> <p align="justify"><b><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS">#4 OSTROLENKA</font></b> <p align="justify"><b><i><font size="3" face="Trebuchet MS">#1 MINI COSMO – LONGSHOT PICK</font></i></b> ThoroFan Handicapper's Cornerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03177519642532691985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7507011268295815218.post-88451907328648878382014-11-29T13:13:00.001-05:002014-11-29T14:41:40.085-05:00STARS OF TOMORROW – Pedigree Notes<p><font size="3" face="Calibri">The juvenile colts and fillies will be out in full force on Saturday at Aqueduct, Churchill Downs and Calder…uh, Gulfstream West, as it’s known now. Churchill and Gulfstream will offer maiden, allowance and stakes races for the youngsters. Perhaps we’ll see a preview of next year’s Kentucky Derby, Preakness or Belmont Stakes winner or future older superstar. </font> <p><font size="3" face="Calibri">Below are pedigree notes on the maiden and allowance race contenders, plus the Golden Rod and Demoiselle Stakes. Many of these babies were mentioned this summer on The Kiddie List. You’ll find the </font><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/pedigree_power/Remsen_Rumble_123"><font size="3" face="Calibri">Remsen</font></a><font size="3" face="Calibri"> and </font><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/pedigree_power/Kentucky_Jockey_Club_Highlights_Stars_of_Tomorrow_Card_123"><font size="3" face="Calibri">Kentucky Jockey Club</font></a><font size="3" face="Calibri"> analysis and selections at the </font><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/pedigree_power"><font size="3" face="Calibri">Pedigree Power</font></a><font size="3" face="Calibri"> blog on </font><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/"><font size="3" face="Calibri">Horse Racing Nation</font></a><font size="3" face="Calibri">. </font> <p><b><font size="3" face="Calibri">CHURCHILL</font></b> <p><b><font size="3" face="Calibri">RACE 1 | Optional Claiming | 1 mile | 2YO Fillies</font></b> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>ZEVEN</b> (Lookin At Lucky - Boot Scoot N Run, by Storm Boot) half to stakes placed <strong>Kowboy Boots </strong>(Kodiak Kowboy). Their dam is a half to stakes placed<strong> Bushwacked. </strong>That’s it for blacktype in this family. </font></font> <p><strong><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font></strong> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>TRIGGER FINGER</b> (U S Ranger - Vibration, by Catienus)<strong> </strong>Her dam is a full sister to stakes winning turf miler <strong>SELF MADE MAN </strong>and also to the stakes placed turf miler <strong>Rules of Honor. </strong>Third dam is the blue hen <strong>Kitten’s First, </strong>dam of Champion Turf Male and top sire <strong>KITTEN’S JOY,</strong> multiple Grade 1 winner<strong> PRECIOUS KITTEN </strong>and granddam of Champion 2YO Filly <strong>DREAMING OF ANNA, </strong>stakes winners and sires <strong>LEWIS MICHAEL </strong>and<strong> JUSTENUFFHUMOR. </strong>Trigger Finger has a terrific turf pedigree and won her debut on the turf. She’ll try to transfer her winning ways to the dirt. </font></font> <p><strong><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font></strong> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>TIGER RIDE</b> (Candy Ride (ARG) - Royal Tigress, by Storm Cat) is a half to the stakes winning sprinter/miler <strong>OL DONYO</strong> (Curlin) and stakes placed <strong>Legend</strong><strong> (Tiznow). Their dam is a Group 3 winning sprinter in Ireland. Third dam </strong><strong>SUMMER MOOD</strong><strong> was a Canadian Champion Sprinter. Tiger Ride has a good pedigree for turf and won her debut over the surface. Like Trigger Finger, she’ll try to do the same over the dirt.</strong></font></font> <p><strong><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font></strong> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>BIG RED SEVEN</b> (Hold Me Back - All Sevens, by A.P. Indy) His Freshman Sire, a son of Giant’s Causeway was best suited for turf although his offspring have no problems winning over the dirt. Big Red Seven’s second dam <b>SIX SEXY SISTERS</b> won 2 of 3 starts, including the Colleen Stakes. This is the distaff family of MGSW sire <b>BEAU GENIUS</b>.</font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>LAVENDER CHRISSIE</b> (Scat Daddy - Lavender Baby, by Rubiano) is a half sister to Grade 3 winning sprinter <strong>BABY </strong><strong>J (J Be K), </strong>stakes winner and turf Grade 1 placed <strong>LAUREATE CONDUCTOR (</strong>Bernstein) and multiple stakes placed <strong>Que Posse </strong>(Posse). The class skipped a generation in this family as we have to go back to the third dam, multiple stakes winner <strong>HOT MILK </strong>to find blacktype<strong>. </strong></font></font> <p><strong><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font></strong> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>HARLAN'S DESTINY</b> (Harlan's Holiday - Mantekilla, by Lemon Drop Kid)<strong> </strong>takes on open company after out-classing state-bred stakes fillies by over seven lengths in the<strong> </strong>Rachel's Turn and the West Virginia Breeders' Classic Stakes. Her dam is a half to a stakes winner. Two-time Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint heroine <b>MIZDIRECTION</b> and Grade 1 winner <b>HOOH WHY</b> are part of this female family. </font></font> <h2></h2> <h2><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>RACE 2</b> <b>| Optional Claiming | 6F | 2YO Fillies</b></font></font></h2> <p><b><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font></b> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>MOVIE MYSTERY</b> (Flatter - Tiz a Fantasy, by Tiznow) her dam is a half to a stakes winning sprinter and second dam <b>FANTASY ANGEL</b> won the Comely Stakes (G-3). This filly is bred to go long, however she won her debut sprinting.</font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>TAYLOR S</b> (Medaglia d'Oro - Miss Macy Sue, by Trippi) cuts back to a sprint after speed/fade in the Rags to Riches Stakes. Her dam is a multiple stakes winning sprinter. Taylor S has plenty of speed in her distaff line as she’s inbred to the two-time Champion Sprinter <b>TA WEE</b>.</font></font> <p><b><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font></b> <p><b><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font></b> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>CLASSY CORINTHIAN</b> (Corinthian - Can't Buy Class, by Elusive Quality) No blacktype in her immediate family, although all four of her siblings, which are fillies, are winners. Their dam is a half to two stakes placed runners and this is the female family of popular Grade 1 stakes veteran <b>BOBOMAN</b>. </font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>ZENITTOWINIT</b> (Zensational - Silver Star, by Silver Deputy) her dam is a half to multiple stakes winner and sire GREELEY’S CONQUEST, G-3 heroine ITTY BITTY PRETTY, and three stakes placed runners. The second dam TIPSY GIRL is also a multiple stakes placed sprinter. </font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>EMPRESSIVE HUMOR</b> (Distorted Humor - Empressive Lady, by Empire Maker) was no factor in the Adirondack or Matron Stakes, so she drops into allowance company. With Empire Maker and A.P. Indy as her first two damsires, she has the pedigree to run all day and might need at least a mile to stretch her legs. Her dam and second dam were both stakes placed sprinters. </font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>SILVER ALLURE</b> Unbridled's Song - Only Seventeen, by Exploit) is a half to Milady Handicap (G-2) heroine <b>MADE FOR MAGIC</b> (Cape Canaveral). </font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>I'M A LOOKER</b> (Henny Hughes - Our Mariella, by Victory Gallop) her dam is a half to a stakes winning sprinter. The third dam, <b>LAKEWAY MISS</b>, was 1977 Champion 2YO Filly. </font></font> <h2></h2> <h2><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>RACE 3</b> <b>| MSW | 1 1/16 miles | 2YO Fillies</b></font></font></h2> <p><b><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font></b> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>TALE OF CLASS</b> (Tale of Ekati - Classic Slew, by Seattle Slew) is a half to turf stakes winner <strong>SURGING RIVER </strong>(Gone West), plus turf stakes placed runners<strong> Comet Kris (Kris S.) </strong>and<strong> Ford Every Stream </strong>(Seeking the Gold). You read that right, her dam is 20+ years old and by <strong>SEATTLE SLEW. </strong>Tale of Class’ second dam and third dams are the blue hens. Second dam No Class bore Champions <strong>GRAY CLASSIC, REGAL CLASSIC, SKY CLASSIC </strong>and <strong>DANCE SMARTLY, </strong>plus No Class is the grand dam of Champion <strong>DANCETHRUTHEDAWN, </strong>top sire <strong>SMART STRIKE, </strong>Queens Plate hero <strong>SCATTER THE GOLD, </strong>also third dam of G-1 winner <strong>MORENO, </strong>etc. Third dam is blue hen <strong>Classy Quillo. </strong></font></font> <p><strong><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font></strong> <p><strong><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font></strong> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>SAVE OUR OCEANS</b> (Super Saver - Atlantic Ocean, by Stormy Atlantic) is a half to turf stakes placed runner Golden Galleon (Medaglia d'Oro). Their dam is a G-3 winner over dirt and turf, and her wins include the Miesque (G-3) Santa Ysabel, and Kentucky Cup Juvenile Fillies.</font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>MARKET APPEAL</b> (After Market - Setareh, by Sky Classic) her dam is a stakes winning miler who placed third in the Vanity (G-1) at 1 1/8 miles. Her half sisters have bore several listed stakes winners/placers. </font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>PURR</b> (Bluegrass Cat - French Kiss, by Hussonet) this well-named filly’s dam was stakes placed at two, and as an older stakes winner, won at 1 1/6 miles. The dam is a half to multiple G-1 winner <b>ON FIRE BABY</b>, who is also a graded stakes winning 2YO. Another half sister, <b>HIGH HEELS</b>, is a stakes placed juvie and won the G-2 Fantasy at three. </font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>SUPER SAKS</b> (Sky Mesa - Broadway Debut, by Unbridled's Song) is a half to juvie SP <b>Mr Bluegrass Music</b> (by Bluegrass Cat). Another half sib was unplaced in 4 starts at two. Their dam Broadway Debut is a half to MGSP <b>Voodoo</b> (by Petionville) and the second and third dams own blacktype.</font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>LASSOFTHEMOHICANS</b> (Indian Charlie - Dream Street, by Tale of the Cat) her unraced dam is a half to Champion Sprinter <b>HOUSEBUSTER</b>. The multiple stakes winning turf sprinter <b>SOMETHING EXTRA</b> (by Indian Charlie), G-2 winner <b>NICOLE H</b>, multiple stakes veteran <b>TAX</b> <b>REFUND</b> and stakes winning sprinter <b>MEAL PENALTY</b> are all part of the immediate (2<sup>nd</sup> gen.) female family. </font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>STROKE PLAY</b> (Warrior's Reward - Candy Ma'am, by Lemon Drop Kid) One of two half sibs to race placed as a 2YO and the dam placed in her second start. The second and third dams own minor blacktype. Freshman Sire WARRIOR'S REWARD, a son of MEDAGLIA D'ORO, is off to a huge start at stud. </font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><strong>SUPER STYLISH</strong> (Super Saver - Stylish Manner, by Touch Gold) is a half to G-3 winner <strong>NONIOS </strong>(Pleasantly Perfect) who was second in the Haskell Inv. (G-1), also a half to juvie stakes winner<strong> CITY COOL </strong>(City Zip), and stakes placed <strong>Super Robusto </strong>(Smoke Glacken). Her dam is a half to G-3 stakes winning turfer<strong> KISS THE DEVIL, </strong>who is the dam of multiple turf stakes winners <strong>KISS MINE </strong>and <strong>KISS MOON. </strong></font></font> <p><strong><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font></strong> <p><strong><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font></strong> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>INCLUDE BETTY</b> (Include - Betty's Solutions, by Eltish) is a half to Hollywood Starlet (G-1) runner-up <b>Blonde Fog</b> (Divine Park) and an English stakes placed runner. Second dam is multiple graded stakes winner <b>BETTY LOBELIA</b>. Grade 1 winning sprinter <b>MY TRUSTY CAT</b> and multiple stakes veteran <b>SOMETHINGABOUTBETTY</b> are part of this immediate family. </font></font> <h2></h2> <h2><b><font size="3" face="Calibri">RACE 4 | MSW | 1 1/8 MILES (Turf) | 2YO Colts/geldings</font></b></h2> <p><b><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font></b> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>OO DE LALLY</b> (Midshipman - Home Run Kiss, by Bertrando) his dam is a full sister to G-1 turf winning miler <b>KARELIAN</b> and a half to G-2 SP turf miler <b>COLGAN'S CHIP</b>. This colt’s pedigree leans more towards sprint speed rather than middle distances.</font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>RANSOM THE MOON</b> (Malibu Moon - Count to Three, by Red Ransom) his dam is a SW sprinter and a full sister to Canadian G-3 winner THNIK RED. The second dam <b>COUNTUS IN</b> is a three-time winner of the Maryland Ladies Handicap. </font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>PAT'S SHOES</b> (Eskendereya - Isabell's Shoes, by King of Kings (IRE)) is a half to SP runners Bell's Shoes (Mineshaft) and <strong>Amazing Shoes (Empire Maker). </strong>Their dam won the one mile Martha Washington stakes. She’s a half to multiple SW miler PROM SHOES and to the stakes winning sprinter <b>WILDCAT SHOES</b>. Second dam <b>PINK SHOES</b> and third dam <b>FUN FLIGHT</b> also won the Martha Washington. This is the female family of G-1 winning sprinter and sire <b>ZENSATIONAL</b> and MGSW <b>DEPARTING</b>.</font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>TASK FORCE GLORY</b> ( Badge of Silver - Glory Dancer, by Honour and Glory) is a half to SW <strong>GUNG HO</strong> and SP <strong>Kitten’s Dancer</strong> (both by Kittens Joy). The second dam is a G-2 winner and third dam is the important blue hen <strong>BLITEY, </strong>dam of <strong>DANCING SPREE, FANTASTIC FIND, </strong>(dam of MG1W <strong>FINDER’S FEE</strong>). Multiple stakes winning veteran <strong>T.D. VANCE </strong>and Champion 3YO Filly <strong>HEAVENLY PRIZE </strong>are also part of this illustrious distaff family. </font></font> <p><strong><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font></strong> <p><strong><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font></strong> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>STREET TOUGH</b> (Street Sense - Dreamy Maiden, by Meadowlake) is a half to U.A.E. Derby (G-2) & Royal Lodge (Eng-G-2) winner <b>DADDY LONG LEGS</b> (Scat Daddy) and multiple stakes winning dirt sprinter <b>TRES DREAM</b> (Chester House). Their dam is a SW over dirt and the second dam is a stakes winner over dirt & turf.</font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>HEY HEY IT'S D K</b> (Exchange Rate - Latitude Forty, by Chester House) his dam is a MSW at 1 1/8 miles over the turf. The second dam <b>Planchette</b> was third in the Iroquois Stakes against 2YO colts. </font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>TIZ TOWN</b> (Tiznow - Bird Town, by Cape Town) Only four of seven half siblings of racing age made to the track. None own blacktype, and only two won. One of the two hit the board as a 2YO. The dam was Champion 3YO filly and half sister to Belmont Stakes winner and sire <b>BIRDSTONE</b>. The second dam Dear Birdie is a blue hen.</font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>UNION RIVER</b> (Tiznow - Our Khrysty, by Newfoundland) his dam is a MSW sprinter and a half sister to MG1W and sire <b>BULLSBAY</b> (Tiznow) and juvenile SW <b>VEGAS NO SHOW</b> (Hard Spun). The second and third dams were stakes placed as juveniles and fourth dam is the blue hen <b>GRECIAN COMEDY</b>, who was a juvie SW. </font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>JEWISH HOLIDAY</b> (Purim - Red Dot, by Diesis (GB)) his dam is a half to Kentucky Oaks heroine <b>FLUTE</b>.</font></font> <h2></h2> <h2><b><font size="3" face="Calibri">RACE 5 | MSW | 6 1/2F | 2YO Fillies</font></b></h2> <p><b><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font></b> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>PRETTY PERFECTION</b> (Majesticperfection - Suchaprettygirl, by Mazel Trick) her dam is a half to MG1 winning turf router <b>SWEET TALKER</b> and multiple G-3 turfer <b>SILVER MEDALLION</b>. This is the distaff family of MGSW <b>INCLUDE ME OUT</b> and <b>CHECK THE LABEL</b>.</font></font> <p><b><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font></b> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>FASHIONABLY COOL</b> (Tiznow - Kanani, by E Dubai) his dam is a half to many stakes winners, including <b>LITTLEEXPECTATIONS</b>, <b>LITTLE SISTER</b>, and <b>VALID EXPECTATIONS</b>. This is also the distaff family of MG1SW <b>PURGE</b>, <b>JERSEY GIRL</b> (dam of <b>JERSEY TOWN</b>), and stakes winner and leading CA sire <b>VALID WAGER</b>.</font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>QUEEN BUXLEY</b> (Super Saver - Finmore Queen, by Grand Slam) her dam is a half to Ruffian Stakes (G-1) <b>POOL LAND</b> and MSP <b>My Chickadee</b>. </font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>ANYTHINGYOUCANDO</b> (Curlin - Glorified, by Honour and Glory) her dam is a G-1 stakes placed sprinter and a half to MSP <b>Gangbuster</b>. The second, third and fourth dams are all stakes winners and Hollywood Starlet heroine <b>DIPLOMAT LADY</b> is part of this family.</font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>MOON MEDAL</b> (Medaglia d'Oro - Moonbow, by Distorted Humor) her dam is a half to G-3 winner <b>BUFFUM</b>, MSW <b>STORMY WEST</b> and SP <b>Value Stream</b>. Second dam <b>STORM BEAUTY</b> won the Miss Preakness Stakes and she’s a half to Champion Sprinter <b>GOLD BEAUTY</b> (dam of Champion and sire <b>DAYJUR</b>), G1 winner and blue hen <b>MAPLEJINSKY</b> (dam of Champion Older Mare <b>SKY</b> <b>BEAUTY</b>, plus granddam to <b>TALE OF EKATI, PLEASANT HOME, PINE ISLAND</b>, etc.). Third dam is blue hen <b>STICK TO BEAUTY</b>.</font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>ROSE TO GLORY</b> (Majestic Warrior - Rose Tiara, by St. Jovite) pretty gray filly is a half to SP sprinter <strong>Clayton's Trick </strong>(Phone Trick). Their dam’s half sister bore G-3 winner <strong>KID GRINDSTONE. </strong>Second dam is Champion Sprinter <strong>PRINCESS ROONEY. </strong></font></font> <h2></h2> <p><strong><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font></strong> <p><strong><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font></strong> <h2><strong><font size="3" face="Calibri">RACE 6 | OPT. CLAIMER | 6F | 2YO colts/geldings</font></strong></h2> <p><b><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font></b> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>INSTANT REPLAY</b> (Lemon Drop Kid - Run Kate Run, by Cherokee Run) is a full brother to MSW veteran <b>KID KATE</b> and a half to SW <strong>AMIE'S DINI </strong>(Bandini). The second and third dams both won stakes as 2YO.<strong> </strong></font></font> <p><strong><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font></strong> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>HOLY BOSS</b> (Street Boss - Holy Grace, by Holy Bull) his dam is a half sister to graded stakes winners <b>MARK ONE</b> and <b>ROOKIE SENSATION</b>. Another half sister foaled Ohio Derby hero <b>PLEASANT PRINCE</b>.</font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>GREAT REZULTS</b> (Zensational - Quarterly Report, by General Meeting) has a fairly precocious female family. His dam is a multiple SP full sister to SW <b>YEARLY REPORT</b>, the dam of recent Spinaway (G-1) winner <b>CONDO COMMANDO </b>and multiple SP <b>CHECKLIST</b>. Second dam <b>FISCAL</b> <b>YEAR</b> is a SW Juvenile. </font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>TOASTING MASTER</b> (Congrats - Broadway Gold, by Seeking the Gold) he’s a half brother to multiple stakes winner <strong>R GYPSY GOLD </strong>(Bernardini), Razorback Handicap hero <strong>GOLDEN LAD</strong> (Medaglia d'Oro) Grade 2 winner and Kentucky Oaks runner-up <strong>BROADWAY’S ALIBI </strong>(Vindication). Their dam won the<strong> </strong>Astoria Stakes as a 2YO and she’s a half sister to Florida Derby hero and new sire <strong>DIALED IN. </strong>Second dam <strong>Miss Doolittle</strong> placed in the Schuylerville Stakes (G-2) as a two year old and the second dam <b>ELIZA</b> earned Champion 2YO Filly honors. </font></font> <h2><b><font size="3" face="Calibri Light"></font></b></h2> <h2><b><font size="3" face="Calibri Light">RACE 7 | MSW | 6 ½ F | 2YO colt/geldings</font></b></h2> <p><b><font size="3" face="Calibri Light"></font></b> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri Light"><b>FRACULA</b> (Rockport Harbor - Light and Liberty, by Arch) both half siblings are winners. His dam is a half to SW sprinters <b>RISEN WARRIOR</b> and <b>AWESOME LADY</b>, who is the dam of MSW turf sprinter <b>SENSIBLE LADY</b>. </font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri Light"><b>MARKET GUESSING</b> (Blame - Run Sarah Run, by Smart Strike) is a half to multiple stakes veteran <b>FIRST DUDE</b> (Stephen Got Even) and SW <b>VIA VENETO</b> (Orientate). Second dam <b>BREECH</b> is a SW.</font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri Light"><b>NO SMALL REWARDS</b> (Warrior's Reward - No Small Wonder, by Capote) is a half to Cinderella Stakes winner <b>WONDERFUL LUCK</b> (Trust n Luck). That’s it for blacktype in the immediate distaff line. </font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri Light"><b>HIDDEN DANGER</b> (Tiznow - North Cork, by Doneraile Court) his dam is a half sister to Louisiana Derby (G-1) hero <b>HIGH LIMIT</b>. Recent BC Juvenile Turf winner <b>HOOTENNANNY</b>, plus G1 winners <b>DANCE TEACHER</b> and <b>CAT MOVES</b> are part of this family. </font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri Light"><b>FLASHY JEWEL</b> (Flashy Bull - Indian Jewel, by Distorted Humor) is a half to SP Juvie <b>KENTUCKY</b> <b>GEM</b> (Friends Lake). Their dam is a full sister to Busanda Stakes winner <b>AGE OF HUMOR</b>, plus a half to MSP <b>Coach Ryan</b> and juvie SP <b>Meeker Avenue.</b></font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri Light"><b>DECORATION</b> (Congrats - Preemptive Attack, by Smart Strike) is a half to MGSP <strong>Sky Treasure </strong>(Sky Mesa) and juvie SP <strong>Panther Strike </strong>(Black Minnaloushe). Second dam is Canadian Champion Older Mare and Champion Turf Mare <strong>BOLD RURITANA</strong>. </font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri Light"><b>AMERICAN ROAD</b> (Quality Road - I Love America, by Quiet American) is a half to 2YO SW <strong>AMERICAN SUGAR </strong>(Harlan's Holiday) and SP <strong>Love to Run </strong>(Pulpit). Their dam is a half to the dam of MG1 winning sprinter <strong>SASSY IMAGE, </strong>who was also a SW 2YO<strong>. </strong>I Love America is a half to the dams of 2YO SW <b>LA WILDCAT</b> and her turf SW half brother <b>EXTENSIVE</b>. The second dam is stakes placed and the third dam <b>HEADER CARD</b> won the Oak Leaf (G-1) as a two year old. Do you see a trend here?</font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri Light"><b>KID ZIP</b> (Unbridled's Song - Baby Zip, by Relaunch) the pretty gray colt is a half brother to multiple graded stakes winners and top sires CITY ZIP (Carson City) and GHOSTZAPPER (Awesome Again) plus multiple G3 winner CITY WOLF (Giant’s Causeway). Their dam is a blue hen. </font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri Light"><b>TWISTED FANTASY</b> (Touch Gold - Miss Attractive, by Running Stag) is a half to MGSW <strong>AWESOME BABY</strong><strong> (Awesome Again) heroine of the </strong>Santa Ynez, Santa Ysabel and Sunland Park Oaks. Their dam is a half to SW <b>AMIABLE GRACE</b> and <b>MISS TIZZY</b>.</font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri Light"><b>VICI</b> (War Front - Viva, by Pulpit) hails from a family of Claiborne Farm bluebloods. He’s a half to G-3 SP <b>Luster</b> (Touch Gold). His dam is a half sister to stakes winning sires <b>EASTERN ECHO</b> and <b>ROAR</b>, plus Multiple graded stakes winner <b>YELL</b>. Second dam stakes winner <b>WILD APPLAUSE </b>is the grand-dam of GSW<b> CONGRATS </b>and SP<b> Flatter</b>, both are sires.<b> </b>The fourth dam is dam is blue hen <b>GLOWING TRIBUTE</b>, dam of Kentucky Derby winner <b>SEA HERO, </b>plus she is grand-dam of Champion European sprinter <b>MOZART</b> and many other notable stakes winners.</font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri Light"><b>HAWKSHAW</b> (Discreetly Mine - Count to Six, by Saratoga Six) is a half to the multiple stakes winning veterans MERIBEL (Peaks and Valleys) and <strong>KNOX</strong><strong> (Menifee). Six of nine half siblings that raced are winners. </strong>Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint heroine <b>INFORMED DECISION</b> is part of this distaff family.</font></font> <h2></h2> <h2><b><font size="3" face="Calibri Light">RACE 8 | MSW | 1 MILE (TURF) | 2yo Fillies</font></b></h2> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri Light"><b>LIVE FOREVER</b> (Pioneerof the Nile - Smokin Again, by Smoke Glacken) her dam is a SW 2YO on dirt and went 0-2 over the lawn. PON is an excellent (33%) turf sire. We have to skip back to the third dam to find blacktype. Third dam <b>DIANES HALO</b> is a G-2 winner and was second in the Santa Anita Oaks (G-1). This is the female family of multiple graded stakes winner and sire <b>DOMESTIC DISPUTE</b>. </font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri Light"><b>SWEETER THAN EVER</b> (Exchange Rate - Sweet Eloise, by Sky Classic) pretty gray filly is a half to SW SWEET RELISH (Smoke Glacken) and <strong>DON DULCE </strong>(Maria’s Mon). Both earned their SW over dirt. She’s also a half to G-3 turf placed <strong>Wherethewestbegins </strong>(Gone West). Their dam is stakes placed and a half to several stakes placed runners. Second dam <strong>MS ELOISE</strong> won the Shuvee (G-1), Top Flight (G-1) Bed O’Roses (G-3) etc. This is the female family of MG1 winner <b>OCTAVE</b>.</font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri Light"><b>STRIKE BACK FAST</b> (English Channel - Elegant Prospect, by Mr. Prospector) is a full sister to <strong>Changethechannel </strong>who placed in the Santa Barbara Handicap (G-3). Third dam <b>GORGEOUS</b> won the Ashland (G-1), Hollywood Oaks, Vanity Invitational (G-1) etc. Fourth dam <b>KAMAR</b> was Champion 3YO Filly in Canada. Her descendants bore Santa Anita Oaks (G-1) winner <b>TURBULENT</b> <b>DECENT</b>, Ruffian Stakes (G-1) heroine <b>SWIFT TEMPER</b>, and many other stakes winners.</font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri Light"><b>BELPIANA</b> (Rock Hard Ten - Sweet Rider, by Seeking the Gold) her sire is a strong turf sire. Her dam is a half to <b>SANTA CATERINA</b>, who won the Hollywood Oaks (G-2) and placed in the KY Oaks, Frizette, Del Mar Debutante and BC Juvenile Fillies. She’s also a half to Sanford Stakes runner up Power World. English Champion 2yo filly <b>CULTURE VULTURE</b> is part of this distaff family. </font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri Light"><b>DYNAMY ROAD</b> (Bellamy Road - Dynacielo, by Dynaformer) is related to American Road, who is entered in Race 6. Their dams are half sisters. </font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri Light"><b>PANTANAL</b> (Congrats - Selva, by Forest Wildcat) her dam won the Monmouth Sorority and Glorious Song Stakes at Woodbine as a 2YO, plus the Mardi Gras Stakes sprinting on the lawn at Fairgrounds. She owns the only blacktype in two generations. </font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri Light"><b>BETTER BE BETTER</b> (Smart Strike - Lake Huron, by Salt Lake) is a full sister to Dogwood Stakes (G-3) heroine <b>SALTY STRIKE</b> and half stakes winner <b>SALTY RESPONSE, </b>plus SP<b> Northern Vacation</b>.</font></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri Light"><b>HEART LOVE KISS</b> (Zensational - Indigene, by Deputy Minister) is a half to MSP sprinter <strong>Pretty Katherine </strong>(Vindication). Her dam is a<strong> </strong>is a full sister to MGSW <b>ATELIER</b> (who bore GSP Alaazo). She’s also a half to the graded stakes veteran ALDIZA who won the Go For Wand Handicap (G-1) and placed in the Test, Frizette, Spinster, etc.</font></font> ThoroFan Handicapper's Cornerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03177519642532691985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7507011268295815218.post-7381913143476298112014-11-20T12:30:00.001-05:002014-11-20T12:30:14.564-05:00Delta Downs Jackpot – Who Wants to be a Millionaire?<p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Calibri"><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-tytz7aXreHY/VG4lI1Z62aI/AAAAAAAABkk/ckmUmPp3XXA/s1600-h/KENTUCKY%252520DERBY%252520TRAIL%25255B7%25255D.jpg"><img title="KENTUCKY DERBY TRAIL" style="margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; display: inline" alt="KENTUCKY DERBY TRAIL" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGMARcaj4eWnBLUYG9p2w3aVYq5NhG9aokSihCsNxUcQkGiTmRrprLXcmV9tQXKHWqooSnyS2tCF-k9X5aGC4SXr7ZJ_IKpPZPeRji6SKtI-jNs1wCdNLiRGyZ4IARnrdq-j8nLC4UzRFn/?imgmax=800" width="187" align="left" height="315"></a> The top four finishers in the Delta Downs Jackpot will earn points towards the Kentucky Derby. But so far, the race is just a blip on the Derby trail. Only one horse that has finished in the top three in the Jackpot has made an impact on the Triple Crown races, 2005 Kentucky Derby runner-up Closing Argument.</font> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Calibri">In the eleven years that the <b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/stakes/Delta_Jackpot">Delta Downs Jackpot (G-3) </a></b>has been contested, only two winners, Big Drama and Goldencents, have continued on to win Grade 1 stakes. It seems the only thing going for the race is the million dollar purse and a chance for the horses’ connections to indulge in some Cajun cuisine. </font> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Calibri">This year, a full field of ten, with two also-eligibles are scheduled to run 1 1/6 miles. There’s a 90% chance of a wet track, so let’s scout for the mud pedigrees.</font> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Calibri">Colts exiting the Breeders' Cup haven't fared well in the Delta Jackpot. Only Z Humor, fifth in the BC Juvenile, has won the Jackpot. This year, <b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Mr_Z">MR. Z</a></b> enters the Jackpot after a fifth place finish in the Juvenile. The well-traveled colt has started at five different tracks in six races since June and has finished worse than second only twice. An exhausting schedule that many horses couldn’t handle, but Mr. Z seems to thrive on it. Have to consider him as a contender as he’s facing a much softer field here, plus, he has one of the best mud pedigrees in the field.</font> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Calibri">Another colt that figures to see a lot of action on the tote is <b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Golden_Actor">GOLDEN ACTOR</a></b>. The son of Curlin made an eye-catching move in his debut in a Gulfstream maiden race, breaking from the far outside and circling the field only to miss by ¾ length over the speed favoring track going seven furlongs. Golden Actor captured the Jean Lafitte Stakes, the Jackpot prep by over 4 lengths. Golden Actor is a half brother to multiple stakes winner BIG APPLE DADDY and stakes placed River Dancer, so there’s some quality here. Golden Actor’s speed figures have improved in every start and he’s firing off bullet works at Delta Downs. On the downside, his resume is light, he’s taking a major step up in class and his mud pedigree is average. </font> <p align="justify"><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Conquest_Tsunami"><font size="3" face="Calibri">CONQUEST TSUNAMI</font></a></b><font size="3" face="Calibri"> has been defeated only once in his six race career. After going virtually unchallenged over the Woodbine Poly and turf, the son of Stormy Atlantic faded to sixth after pressing the pace in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. It was the colt’s first race over dirt and around two turns. The Mark Casse trainee won the Street Sense Stakes at a mile over the Churchill dirt in his last start and could be one of the colts vying for the lead in this year’s Jackpot. He has an above average mud pedigree.</font> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Calibri">The word must’ve gone out that Delta Downs favors speed. A contingent of California shippers will bring their brand of crazy to bear in the Jackpot. Leading the herd is <b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Wake_Up_Nick">WAKE UP NICK</a></b>. Undefeated in his first five starts, which include a slew of state-bred stakes, the son of Cindigo suffered his first defeat in the Golden State Juvenile in his last start, finishing second by 1 ¼ lengths after a wide trip chasing blistering fractions. His sire Cindago gets a superior 26% winners over off tracks.</font> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Calibri">Speaking of speed, <b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Ocho_Ocho_Ocho">OCHO OCHO OCHO</a></b> couldn’t have been more impressive running away in the rained off Juvenile Turf Sprint. The son of Street Sense dueled through insane fractions of :21.46, and :43.96 before widening to a 5 ¾ length lead, flashing under the wire in 1:14.57 for 6 ½ furlongs. On paper, he’s easily the fastest one in the field, but will have to stretch that speed an extra two furlongs. He does have an above average mud pedigree.</font> <p align="justify"><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Prime_Engine"><font size="3" face="Calibri">PRIME ENGINE</font></a></b><font size="3" face="Calibri"> breaks from the #1 position, and he will likely be right up on the lead with Ocho Ocho Ocho. The son of Northern Afleet has won both stars by a combined 15 ½ lengths at Emerald Downs. After those huge victories, Prime Engine switched to the barn of Jerry Hollendorfer and has been flashing sensational works. Prime Engine has to prove himself against tougher, more experienced horses and his pedigree is average for mud, but Hollendorfer doesn’t ship for the fun of it. </font> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Calibri">Looking for a live longshot? How about <b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Saratoga_Heater">SARATOGA HEATER</a></b>? Conditioned by Al Stall Jr., the son of Temple City has improved his speed figures in every start, including a 4 length victory against NY state-breds in the Bertram F. Bongard. The colt has made all three starts over a sloppy track and there’s 90% rain/snow in the forecast for Saturday. Plus, this colt has shown the ability to race on or off of the lead. At morning line odds of 15-1, he’s a tempting play.</font> <p align="justify"><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Far_Right"><font size="3" face="Calibri">FAR RIGHT</font></a></b><font size="3" face="Calibri">, <b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Red_Button">RED BUTTON</a></b> and <b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Dekabrist">DEKABRIST</a></b> appear up against it. </font> <p>Far Right has been wide in his last two starts and will be in the same position in the Jackpot. He was gaining ground in the Street Sense after going wide, but I expect much of the same here. Perhaps he can round out a Super. <p>Red Button has raced over dirt, poly and turf. His speed figures have improved in each start and he likes to run from off of the pace. The drawback is his trainer’s 0-24 record in stakes and this colt has been beaten by weaker opponents. If the Jackpot pace is strong, perhaps Red Button can hit the board, but I don’t see him winning here. <p>Dekabrist gets his fourth jockey in six starts. That’s not going to help. Take this guy back to Calder…uh, Gulfstream West, and let him play with the allowance types. <p>The two also-eligibles don’t appear to have a chance either. <b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Unblunted">UNBLUNTED</a></b> is a last out maiden winner at Saratoga. <b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Two_Six_Wins">TWO SIX WINS</a></b> comes from the Pender barn, which is 0-23 with shippers. <h2> </h2> <h2 align="center"><b><font color="#800000" size="4">SELECTIONS</font></b></h2> <p align="justify"><font size="3" face="Calibri">TRACK BIAS: 33% of winners go wire-to-wire on the rail. In the last five editions of the Jackpot, three colts won on the lead, one each won from mid-pack and from the back of the pack.</font> <p align="justify"><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>PRIME ENGINE</b> has speed on the rail, but he may not be as fast as <b>OCHO OCHO OCHO</b>. If Ocho gets an uncontested lead, it could be game over, but I’ll bet that he’ll be pushed along by the other speed.</font></font> <p align="justify"><b><font size="3" face="Calibri">#5 SARATOGA HEATER</font></b> <p align="justify"><b><font size="3" face="Calibri">#4 CONQUEST TSUNAMI</font></b> <p align="justify"><b><font size="3" face="Calibri">#8 WAKE UP NICK</font></b> <p align="justify"><b><font size="3" face="Calibri">#3 MR. Z</font></b> ThoroFan Handicapper's Cornerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03177519642532691985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7507011268295815218.post-88259350463916126722014-10-04T11:33:00.001-04:002014-10-04T11:33:00.738-04:00DIRTY DOZEN IN CLAIBORNE BREEDERS’ FUTURITY<p><font size="3" face="Calibri"><img title="CONQUEST TSUNAMI" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline" border="0" alt="CONQUEST TSUNAMI" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-lfdj3xzNVOA/VDATJ9VxXwI/AAAAAAAABj8/eh1jRsSxMK8/CONQUEST%252520TSUNAMI%25255B5%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="204" align="left" height="135"> The 1 1/16 mile Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, this year sponsored by Claiborne, will send a dozen colts to the post, led by the undefeated stakes winner <b>CONQUEST TSUNAMI</b>. Not only will the son of Stormy Atlantic be checked for class, but also surface and distance limitations. The Mark Casse trainee has recorded wins over Woodbine’s polytrack and turf. He’s outclassed the Canadians by more than a combined 20 lengths, blowing to the front of every race and thundering past the finish line first. Conquest Tsunami showed a chick in his armor in his latest start, an allowance turf contest at seven furlongs. He held onto the victory by a short head. So, what about the big questions of dirt and distance? Conquest Tsunami’s full brother, the stakes placed <strong>Stormy Pacific, </strong>won from six furlongs on dirt to a mile on the Polytrack. Their stakes winning dam was proficient at 1 1/16 miles over the turf. Her dam,<strong> NICKEL CLASSIC</strong>, won the Delaware Oaks at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. Conquest Tsunami should handle 1 1/6 miles and might go to 1 1/8 miles. The accomplished youngster could be one of those rare horses who can win over any surface.</font></p> <p><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font> </p> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b><img title="Hashtag Bourbon" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline" border="0" alt="Hashtag Bourbon" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-XSgV1C9ZZAI/VDATKCs_IrI/AAAAAAAABkE/RNCsGy_qAEk/Hashtag%252520Bourbon%25255B5%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="197" align="left" height="147"> HASHTAG BOURBON</b> was a troubled horse in the Iroquois Stakes. He tracked the pace on the inside, but found himself with nowhere to run through the stretch. The Kellyn Gorder trainee managed to find running room, but it was too late. He finished third, beaten only 1 ½ lengths. The son of top Freshmen Sire Super Saver is that stallion’s third most accomplished offspring, right behind Competitive Edge and I Spent It, who finished one-two in the G-1 Hopeful. Hashtag Bourbon is a half to 2002 Arkansans Derby runner-up <b>Wild Horses</b> and stake placed <strong>Waltzing With Blue. </strong><strong>Their dam</strong><strong> </strong>Waltzing With Deb is a half to the dam of multiple graded sprinter and sire <b>SUCCESSFUL APPEAL</b> and his half brother G-2 winner <b>TRUE TO TRADITION</b>. Hashtag Boubon gets a jock switch to Leparoux, who won the Alcibiades with Peace and War.</font></font></p> <p><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font> </p> <p><font size="3" face="Calibri">After beating maidens, <b>BOLD CONQUEST</b> stepped up against winners in the Iroquois Stakes. The Asmussen trainee made an eye-catching five-wide move around the turn and even had the lead briefly before his more experienced stable mate Lucky Player stuck his neck in front at the wire. This was a good learning experience for Bold Conquest. He should benefit from racing and really shine when the distances get longer. Bold Conquest’s sire Curlin has already sired a Classic winner when his son Palace Malice won the Belmont Stakes. Bold Conquest’s dam One for Jim is a multiple stakes miler. His second dam by Belmont hero A. P. Indy is an unraced half sister to Cigar Mile hero <b>JERSEY TOWN</b>. Bold Conquest’s third dam <b>JERSEY GIRL</b> won the Test, Acorn and Mother Goose Stakes, all Grade 1 events. Bold Conquest has a classic pedigree and should improve with maturity and distance.</font> <p><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b><img title="Mr Z3" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline" border="0" alt="Mr Z3" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-dbwrUVC5TJc/VDATKi8fbNI/AAAAAAAABkM/DOdPZLclWqA/Mr%252520Z3%25255B9%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="244" align="left" height="173"> MR. Z</b> is back at it again. This colt has raced in more graded stakes than any of his classmates, and has yet to record a victory. His closest defeat was by a neck in the Saratoga Special. The tenacious, gritty son of Malibu Moon had troubled trips in the Sanford and Saratoga Special, yet still finished second in both races. Instead of resting up for the Champagne Stakes, Mr. Z was sent to Churchill to contest the Iroquois Stakes. In his previous stakes attempts, the Lukas trainee sat off of the pace before making his run, but switched to lead the pace in the Iroquois. That didn’t end well, as the colt tired to fifth place. <strong>Mr. Z </strong>is a half brother to the UAE stakes placed <strong>Ibn Al Nafis. </strong>Their dam Stormy Bear is a half to Champion Turf Horse <b>CHIEF BEARHEART</b>, Hollywood Derby (G-1) winner <b>EXPLOSIVE</b> <b>RED</b>, stakes winner <b>RUBY RANSOM</b> and the stakes placed runners <strong>Memorized </strong>and <strong>Sundown Serenade. </strong>Mr. Z has a 4 x 4 Rasmussen Factor inbreeding to the blue hen Gold Digger, who is Mr. Z’s fourth dam. Gold Digger is also the dam of Mr. Prospector, Malibu Moon’s damsire. Mr. Z finally gets a jock switch to Jon Court. </font></font></p> <p><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font> </p> <p><strong><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font></strong> <p><font size="3" face="Calibri">Mr. Z’s stablemate <b>SHARM</b> finished a non-threatening third in the Hopeful Stakes behind Competitive Edge and I Spent It. He’s still a maiden. His trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, has conditioned the winners of six Breeders’ Futurities, the last in 2004.</font> <p><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font> <p><font size="3" face="Calibri">The rest of the Breeders’ Futurity is comprised mostly of last out maiden winners. Of those, <b>KEEN ICE</b> is the only one who has traveled past sprint distances. The son of Curlin out of an Awesome Again mare, Keen Ice is bred to relish classic distances. His dam is a half to <b>COAL PLAY</b>, runner up in the Haskell. His second and third dams are graded stakes winners and this is the family of Grade 1 winners <b>SOMALI</b> <b>LEMONADE</b> and <b>VERRAZANO</b>.</font> <p><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>TOUGH CUSTOMER</b> lived up to his name in his debut, handing Churchill maidens a 5 ½ length defeat. This is another colt who will wake up with racing and longer distances. He’s a son of Giant’s Causeway out of a stakes placed Arch mare. Tough Customer’s dam is a half sister to multiple stakes winner and sire <b>POMEROY</b> and a full sister bore multiple G-1 winner <b>CONTESTED</b>. The Wayne Catalano trainee posted a pre-race bullet breeze at Monmouth. </font></font> <p><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>FIRESPIKE</b> is a winner at the Futurity distance of 1 1/16 miles – over the turf. So how should he handle the dirt? Neither of his two half siblings won, but one placed on dirt. Sire Flower Alley is a graded stakes winner over dirt and Firespike’s dam won on the dirt. She’s a half to Queen’s Plate hero <strong>BASQUEIAN </strong>who won over both surfaces, so FIRESPIKE could be a multi-surface winner like his distaff family. The Michael Maker trainee posted a pre-race bullet and the colt gets a jock switch to Mike Smith.</font></font> <p><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font> <p><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font> <p><font size="3" face="Calibri">It isn’t a stakes race without a Pletcher horse. <strong>CARPE DIEM</strong> dueled through swift factions to capture a 5 ½ furlong maiden at Saratoga in 1:03 4/5. The son of Giant’s Causeway is a half to J. B.’s Thunder, who won the Breeders’ Futurity in 2010. Pletcher trained last year’s Breeders’ Futurity hero <b>WE MISS ARTIE</b>. The trainer is 26% with horses stretching to a route.</font> <p><font size="3" face="Calibri"></font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>IKE WALKER</b> switches to dirt after three starts on the Poly. He was three and four wide in the Arlingon-Washington Futurity and was never a factor. The son of Bellamy Road out of a Hold That Tiger mare can likely handle the distance and dirt, but class is an issue. The Michael Stidham trainee posted an average pre-race work at Keeneland. </font></font><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>W V JETSETTER</b> bobbled at the break and then was four wide in the Saratoga Special, which was his last start. The Texas-bred colt has been breezing well for conditioner George Weaver. </font></font><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><strong>DEKABRIST</strong> has raced five times and his only victories came sprinting at Gulfstream this summer.</font> </font> <h2></h2> <h2 align="center"><b><font color="#800000" size="5" face="Calibri">SELECTIONS</font></b></h2> <p><font size="3" face="Calibri">The new Keeneland dirt surface should be dry.</font> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>CONQUEST TSUNAMI</b> is the one to catch. A few others in here, mainly <b>TOUGH CUSTOMER</b> and <b>CARPE</b> <b>DIEM</b> could run with him, setting it up for one of the other pace pressers or closers. Of those, <b>HASHTAG</b> <b>BOURBON</b> and <strong>BOLD CONQUEST</strong> have the best chance, although <b>KEEN ICE</b> could also come running from the clouds. </font></font> <p><b><font size="3" face="Calibri">#7 CONQUEST TSUNAMI</font></b> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b>#10 HASHTAG</b> <b>BOURBON</b></font></font> <p><b><font size="3" face="Calibri">#6 BOLD CONQUEST</font></b> <p><font size="3"><font face="Calibri"><b><i>#11 KEEN ICE – longshot pick</i></b><i></i></font></font> <p></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p></p> <p> </p> <p><strong>CHECK OUT THE CHAMPAGNE STAKES WRITE-UP AND SELECTIONS HERE: </strong><a href="http://www.thorofan.com/backend/News2/psNews.php?database=2&action=viewone&id=46&rnd=314.97252616100013"><strong>http://www.thorofan.com/backend/News2/psNews.php?database=2&action=viewone&id=46&rnd=314.97252616100013</strong></a></p> ThoroFan Handicapper's Cornerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03177519642532691985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7507011268295815218.post-83681760321654366752014-09-26T18:43:00.001-04:002014-09-26T18:43:03.615-04:00FRONTRUNNER STAKES - AMERICAN PHAROAH VS. THE REST<p>The Front Runner Stakes (formerly the Norfolk) offers a guaranteed spot in the starting gate of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile for the victor. The race is also a Kentucky Derby qualifying race, meaning the winner receives ten points towards entry into the Derby. <p>The 1 1/16 mile Grade 1 event is comprised of four colts who exited the Del Mar Futurity, the first and second place finishers in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf and four last out maiden winners. Let’s review the field. <p><b></b> <p><b></b> <p><b>TEXAS RED </b>(Afleet Alex - Ramatuelle (CHI), by Jeune Homme) jumps up in company after winning his maiden last time out at a mile over the Del Mar poly. His speed figures have improved in every start. He’s out of a stakes placed mare who is a half to two Chilean group winners. <p><b></b> <p><b>LORD NELSON</b> (Pulpit - African Jade, by Seeking the Gold) cost $340K as a yearling and ran like it in his debut in July beating Del Mar Futurity runner-up Calculator by a length. Baffert kept the colt out of the Futurity and has sent the son of Pulpit out for a few months of consistent breezes. Lord Nelson’s second dam is Argentinean Champion <b>MISS LINDA</b>. Santa Margarita Invitational winner <b>MISS MATCH</b> is part of this female family. Despite his strong morning works, Lord Nelson is jumping from five furlongs to two turns and doesn’t have the benefit of a recent race.<b></b> <p><b></b> <p><b></b> <p><b>SKY PREACHER</b> (Sky Mesa - My Dear Lady (ARG), by Mutakddim) recorded a maiden win when switched to the lawn and was ½ a length shy of the win in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf in his last start. Both races were at a mile. Was it the distance or surface that boosted his performance? Sky Preacher is a full to the stakes winner <strong>SKY HIGH LADY, </strong>whose victories came over the turf and Polytrack. Their dam is an Argentinean Group winner over the turf at classic distances. <p><strong></strong> <p><strong></strong> <p><b>DADDY D T</b> (Scat Daddy - Issues, by Awesome Again) beat Sky Preacher by ½ length in an exciting blanket finish in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf. The Sadler colt has worked well over the Santa Anita dirt, but most of Scat Daddy’s babies prefer turf and polytrack to dirt. That being said, Daddy D T is a full brother to Willard L. Proctor winner <strong>AMARISH,</strong> a winner over dirt and poly, but not turf. <p><b></b> <p><b></b> <p><b>RED BUTTON</b> (Distorted Humor - Skipping Around, by Skip Trial) won his second start, which was a maiden race at Del Mar. He showed absolutely nothing in the Del Mar Futurity, finishing a zip code behind American Pharoah. Red Button is a half brother to the Grade 1 winner <b>SUGAR SHAKE</b> (Awesome Again) and stakes placed <strong>Explosive Heat </strong>(Touch Gold). Despite the colt’s swift works at Santa Anita, the Glatt barn is 0-23 in stakes races. <p><b></b> <p><b></b> <p><b>REFLECTED STAR</b> (Eskendereya - Retool, by Gone West) was no match for Lord Nelson in their debut and faded after flashing some early speed. The son of freshman sire Eskendereya came back a month later to beat maiden claimers at Del Mar. Reflected Star should show improvement with distance and a switch to dirt but Eskendereya’s offspring will be later developing types. Reflected Star’s dam is a half to the graded stakes winners <b>LE BERNARDIN</b> and <b>TAITTINGER ROSE</b>. His third dam is BC Juvie fillies heroine <b>TWILIGHT RIDGE</b>. <b></b> <p><b></b> <p><b></b> <p><b>AMERICAN PHAROAH</b> (Pioneerof the Nile - Littleprincessemma, by Yankee Gentleman) led every step of the way to score a decisive 4 ¾ victory in the Del Mar Futurity. He’s recorded two sharp breezes over the new Santa Anita dirt for Baffert. His dam is a half to the graded stakes winners <b>MISTY ROSETTE</b> and <b>STORM WOLF</b>. His second dam <b>EXCLUSIVE ROSETTE</b> is a stakes winner. <p><b>CONQUEST PANTHERA</b> (Kitten's Joy - Lastofthsummerwine, by Sky Mesa) was a $475K yearling and showed it winning his debut by 1 ½ lengths over the Del Mar poly. By turf star Kitten's Joy, Conquest Panthera has a pedigree better suited to the lawn and polytrack. His second damsire Boundary won on the dirt, but was a better sire of turf horses. This colt must be gorgeous, because there is little blacktype in his female family to warrant his huge price tag. His dam is a half sister stakes winner <b>SONG WARRIOR</b> and to a Russian stakes winner. Conquest Panthera’s third dam is Test heroine <b>CLEF DARGENT</b>. <p><b>SKYWAY</b> (Sky Mesa - Bedside Manner, by Dr. Blum) won the Best Pal Stakes but weakened after going wide the entire way in the Del Mar Futurity. He did his best to check in fourth, beaten 13 lengths. Skyway is a half to multiple stakes winner <b>AVA K.</b> (Dixie Union). Skyway has a sprinter’s pedigree and may find the 1 1/6 miles at the top of his distance range. He has a good/bad race cycle and worked a last out bullet at Santa Anita <p><b>CALCULATOR</b> (In Summation - Back to Basics, by Alphabet Soup) has been slow to put it all together. He was a surprise second in the Del Mar Futurity at long odds and it was another 8 + lengths back to the third place finisher. Calculator’s unraced dam is a half to the stakes veteran turf sprinter <b>ATTICUS KRISTY</b>, his full sister stakes winner <b>FIERY DANCER</b> and to Lexington Stakes hero <b>DISTORTED REALITY</b>. This is the distaff family of Preakness champ <b>SHACKLEFORD</b> and his Grade 1 winning sister <b>LADY JOANNE</b>. Calculator should appreciate two turns and a switch to dirt. He worked a bullet before his last race and also in preparation for the Frontrunner. <h2></h2> <p><b></b> <h2 align="center"><b><font color="#800000" size="3">SELECTIONS</font></b></h2> <p>It’s anyone’s guess how the new track surface will play at Santa Anita. In one day of racing, speed appears to be holding, as the first races were won either on the lead or horses sitting a few lengths from the front. <p><b>American Pharoah</b> and possibly <b>Sky Preacher</b> and <b>Skyway</b> appear to have the most speed. American Pharoah posted a triple digit speed figure in his last performance, a 19 point jump. He could simply run away from them here, but he could also regress slightly. I dismissed <b>Calculator</b> in the Del Mar Futurity, but this is a colt showing all signs of improvement. <b>Sky Preacher</b> has hit the board in three of four starts. Not sure if he’ll handle the dirt at this level of competition, but he’s worth a look. <b>Texas Red</b> is also showing improvement and should benefit from a surface change. If Kenty D. can hustle him out of the gate from that one post, he could hit the board. An intriguing longshot is <b>Red Button</b>. He bombed in the Futurity, but his speed figures aren’t that bad and he has two really good works at Santa Anita. I don’t see him winning it, but he could spoil the party at huge odds. <p><b>#7 AMERICAN PHAROAH</b> <p><b>#10 CALCULATOR</b> <p><b>#3 SKY PREACHER</b> <p><b><i>#5 RED BUTTON – longshot pick.</i></b></p> ThoroFan Handicapper's Cornerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03177519642532691985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7507011268295815218.post-53995567906950571272014-09-05T16:26:00.001-04:002014-09-05T16:35:29.670-04:00Iroquois Stakes Kicks Off Derby Points<p align="justify"><img title="Churchill Downs Fall" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline" border="0" alt="Churchill Downs Fall" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-rlISZG9-aqE/VAocObEVfEI/AAAAAAAABhw/c3eOpJFf5sI/Churchill%252520Downs%252520Fall%25255B4%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="244" align="left" height="155"> The Grade 3 <b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/stakes/Iroquois">Iroquois Stakes </a></b>is a highlight of Churchill Downs opening day for the fall meet. This is the first race of the Kentucky Derby qualifying events, with points distributed as follows - the winner will earn 10 points, 4 for second, 2 for third and 1point for fourth. <p align="justify">None of the past winners of the Iroquois Stakes have had influence on the three Triple Crown races, although the 1983 third place finisher At The Threshold was also third in the Kentucky Derby. The 2012 Iroquois third place runner Overanalyze won the Arkansas Derby. Some of the previous winners, Court Vision, Harlan’s Holiday and Capt Candyman Can became Grade 1 winners. <p align="justify"> <p align="justify"><img title="Mr Z 2" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline" border="0" alt="Mr Z 2" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-XKgeXtJ8BzA/VAocO_1IucI/AAAAAAAABh0/INg6tT1rOzQ/Mr%252520Z%2525202%25255B10%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="88" align="left" height="107"> This year’s 1 1/6 mile contest is headed by <b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Mr_Z">MR Z</a></b>, runner-up in the Sanford and Saratoga Special. He faces eight other colts. Mr Z should love the extra distance. He’s a tough colt who doesn’t know the meaning of quit. He’s the one to beat. He’s bested Iroquois entrants Hashtag Bourbon and Cleveland Sound. <p align="justify"><b></b> <p align="justify"><b></b> <p align="justify"><b><img title="Hashtag Bourbon" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline" border="0" alt="Hashtag Bourbon" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-h5BQnwH1qUc/VAocVWv7-GI/AAAAAAAABiA/88hmUmc51qc/Hashtag%252520Bourbon%25255B12%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="98" align="left" height="74"> HASHTAG BOURBON</b> (Super Saver - Waltzing With Deb, by Robyn Dancer) won the Mountaineer Juvenile by over four lengths, but was beaten 3 ¾ lengths in his debut by Mr Z. The son of hot sire Super Saver should also enjoy running longer distances. Hashtag Bourbon is a half to 2002 Arkansans Derby runner-up <b>Wild Horses</b> (Saint Ballado) and stake placed <strong>Waltzing With Blue</strong> (Malibu Moon). The Keller Gordon trainee was forced to go wide in both starts, but draws post one in the Iroquois. <p align="justify"><strong></strong> <p align="justify"> <p align="justify">Both Mr Z and Hashtag have raced over the Churchill dirt.<strong> </strong><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Lucky_Player"><strong>LUCKY PLAYER</strong></a><strong> </strong>(Lookin At Lucky - Janetstickettocats, by Storm Cat) won his debut at Churchill and then finished fourth in the Bashford Manor Stakes. He was on the wrong end of a photo finish, beaten a neck in the Prairie Meadows Juvenile Mile in his last start. <p align="justify"><b><img title="Cleveland Sound" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline" border="0" alt="Cleveland Sound" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-Kq5FPEUUW8U/VAocWcWuV0I/AAAAAAAABiI/y6zzMyA0hco/Cleveland%252520Sound%25255B5%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="83" align="left" height="68"> CLEVELAND SOUND</b> (More Than Ready - Twilight Service, by Horse Chestnut (SAF)) was all over the place in the Sanford Stakes. He was behind a wall of horses going five wide on the turn, then ducked down to the inside. He did manage to make up ground despite this and was beaten a nose for third. He adds Lasix and gets a jock switch. <p align="justify"> <p align="justify">The rest of the field appears up against it. <b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Dekabrist">DEKABRIST</a></b> was soundly beaten by 23 lengths just last week in the Hopeful at Saratoga. <b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Holy_Frazier">HOLY FRAZIER</a></b> has three starts at a mile under his girth, all over the Ellis Park lawn. He won his maiden last out, but was beaten previously by <b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Danny_Boy_1">DANNY BOY</a></b>. That one is a half to Arlington Classic hero Meal Penalty. Both Holy Frazier and Danny Boy have dirt-oriented pedigrees, and could hit the board. <p align="justify">Two others are coming off of maiden victories. <b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Bold_Conquest">BOLD CONQUEST</a></b> (Curlin - One for Jim, by Distorted Humor) won the dog fight by a head in his last race at Saratoga. After finishing second at 5 ½ furlongs, the colt added a furlong and got the job done. Sprinting isn’t his game, he should love the extra distance and he’s had two strong post-race breezes. <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/The_Gorilla_Man">THE GORILLA MAN</a></b> (After Market - War Indian, by Indian Charlie) beat maidens by ½ length at Ellis Park last time out. In his debut which was over the lawn, he finished three lengths behind Holy Frazier after having to steady. He faces a deeper field here. <h2></h2> <h2 align="center"><b><font color="#800000" size="4">SELECTIONS</font></b></h2> <p align="justify"><b>MR Z </b>has faced :21 and change early fractions in each start, but has the ability to rate. <b>LUCKY PLAYER</b> and <b>CLEVELAND SOUND</b> may also vie near the lead. <b>HASHTAG BOURBON</b> draws the rail, but he’ll likely take back. If he stays out of traffic, he could come running at the end. <b>CLEVELAND SOUND</b> could have earned a graded stakes placing with a better ride last time out. He gets a jock switch and could play the spoiler’s role. <b>BOLD CONQUEST</b> had a strong debut for Assmusen. Joel Rosario rides and he could also be tough. <p><b>#2 MR Z</b> <p><b>#5 LUCKY PLAYER</b> <p><b>#1 HASHTAG BOURBON</b> <p><b><i>#6 CLEVELAND SOUND – longshot pick</i></b> ThoroFan Handicapper's Cornerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03177519642532691985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7507011268295815218.post-40496772918786964292014-08-30T16:51:00.001-04:002014-08-30T16:52:36.551-04:00Spinaway/Hopeful Stakes Review<p><img title="Saratoga_starting_gate_" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline" border="0" alt="Saratoga_starting_gate_" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-tWTMi4yEk9w/VAI5SvG2_mI/AAAAAAAABgw/QqQ5P19ZtXo/Saratoga_starting_gate_%25255B4%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="244" align="left" height="160"> Two year old fillies and colts are highlighted in the closing days of the Saratoga meet. Two youngsters will gallop off as graded stakes winners and one filly will have the designation as the last winner pronounced by legendary Saratoga mainstay Tom Durkin. <p>The seven furlong <a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/stakes/Spinaway">Spinaway Stakes</a> (G-1) has been contested since 1881. As you can imagine, the roll call of winners is a who’s who of racing. However, in the last ten years, there has been only one filly, Folklore, who has won both the Spinaway and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. The 2011 Spinaway heroine Grace Hall placed in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and was third the following year in the Kentucky Oaks. Last year’s Spinaway proved to be a very strong race. The winner Sweet Reason captured this year’s editions of the Test and Acorn Stakes. Runner-up Stopchargingmaria scored back-to-back victories in the CCA Oaks and Alabama Stakes. <p> <p><img title="angela renee1" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline" border="0" alt="angela renee1" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-ruZa6bm_fpc/VAI5TY_ig_I/AAAAAAAABhQ/JjZN71jgXrM/angela%252520renee1%25255B6%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="132" align="left" height="111"> This year’s Spinaway cast includes the Adirondack Stakes runner-up Angela Rene. After capturing her maiden, she was out finished 1 ¾ lengths by Cavorting in the Adirondack. Mentioned a few times on the Kiddie List, <a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Angela_Renee"><b>ANGELA RENEE</b></a> (Bernardini - Pilfer, by Deputy Minister) is a full sister to multiple G-1 stakes winner and sire <strong>TO HONOR AND SERVE, </strong>and a half to stakes placed <strong>Elnaawi</strong> (by Street Sense). She’s the most accomplished filly in the field and the one to beat. <p><strong></strong> <p><strong></strong> <p> <p> <p>Eight other fillies will try to do just that. Three have been spotted on the Kiddie List. <p><strong></strong> <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/By_The_Moon">BY THE MOON</a></b> (Indian Charlie - By the Light, by Malibu Moon) had a professional debut. After tucking into third place early in a 5 ½ furlong sprint, she spread five wide on the turn and raced determinedly down the stretch, winning by ½ length. Her precocious dam won all four starts at two, and is a multiple stakes earner of almost $900K. By The Moon should love the extra distance in the Spinaway. <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Winter_Dawn">WINTER DAWN</a></b> (Sky Mesa - Reboot, by Rubiano) was wide the entire way in her 6 furlong debut while pressing the pace. She prevailed by a bare head. Winter Dawn is a half to stakes winner <b>SUMMER CRUISE</b> (by Vicar) and to <strong>Rebuttal</strong> (Mr. Greeley) who placed in the Middle Park (Eng. Gr.1). Her dam Reboot has Rasmussen Factor inbreeding to the blue hen <b>FOGGY NOTE</b> through full siblings <b>RELAUNCH</b> (Reboot’s second damsire) and <b>MOON GLITTER</b> (second dam of Rubiano). Winter Dawn’s second dam <b>LAUNCH LIGHT TEK</b> is a G-3 winner. Winter Dawn has a sprinter’s pedigree. She may find seven furlongs beyond her scope if she has to go wide again. <p><b><img title="Curalina" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline" border="0" alt="Curalina" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-5dY8CA1W5XA/VAI5TzBvSkI/AAAAAAAABhY/1UGNILVi4io/Curalina%25255B6%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="115" align="left" height="136"> CURALINA</b> (Curlin - Whatdreamsrmadeof, by Graeme Hall) had a wild debut filled with trouble. After veering in and bumping at the start, she was pushed to keep up in the early stages. After finding her footing, Curalina traveled four wide on the turn and staggered greenly down the stretch, gaining second place from talent, not skill. Curlina is a half to multiple stakes placed <a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Dream_Spinner">Dream Spinner</a><strong> </strong>(by Hard Spun). Two of her three half siblings have raced. Both are winners. One placed multiple times as a 2YO. Her dam<strong> Whatdreamsrmadeof</strong> placed in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile Fillies and Grade 2 Fairgrounds Oaks. She’s a half to stakes winner <b>LADY ECHO</b>. Curlina will likely be best up to 1 1/16 miles. <p><b></b> <p><b></b> <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Condo_Commando">CONDO COMMANDO</a></b> (Tiz Wonderful - Yearly Report, by General Meeting) drag raced out of the starting gate and was gone, embarrassing maiden claimers by 12 lengths and stopping the clock in 1:03.82 for 5 ½ furlongs, a little more than a second off of the track record. She’s a half to True North (G-2) placed <strong>Checklist. </strong>Their dam is a multiple G-2 winner from 7 furlongs to 1 1/8 miles. The second dam<strong> FISCAL YEAR </strong>is also a stakes winner. Condo Commando is certainly the speed of the race. If they let her go, she could be hard to catch. <p><strong></strong> <p>Another daughter of Sky Mesa, <b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Darling_Sky">DARLING SKY</a></b> (Sky Mesa - Darling Mambo, by Broad Brush) is a runaway debut winner. She beat maidens by over 7 lengths at PARX, stopping the clock in a sharp :57 for five furlongs. Her dam is a half sister to Ancient Title runner-up Irrefutable. <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Bonnie_K">BONNIE K</a></b> (Majestic Warrior - Royal Confection, by Candi's Gold) fought hard for a neck victory in her debut at 5 ½ furlongs. She’ll be adding first time Lasix and blinkers for the Spinaway. Bonnie K breezed two pre-race bullets for the race. Bonnie K is a half to Prairie Meadows Derby winner <b>KARMA</b>. He and their stakes placed dam own the only blacktype in two generations of the female family. <p>From the last crop of international sire Dynaformer, <b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Lady_Zuzu">LADY ZUZU</a></b> (Dynaformer - Indy Pick, by A.P. Indy) takes a shot sprinting over dirt after a third place finish sprinting on turf. Three of her four half siblings placed on dirt, but never won. They were all more proficient on the turf, including multiple graded stakes winner <strong>OPTIMIZER. </strong>Lady Zuzu is royally bred. Her dam won over the dirt and is a half sister to multiple G-1 winner <strong>FINDERS FEE. </strong>Her second dam <strong>FANTASTIC FIND </strong>is a Grade 1 winner and third dam<strong> BLITEY </strong>is a blue hen. Although Lady Zuzu’s sire has a few winners over the dirt, his progeny are noted turf routers. Lady Zuzu’s immediate family prefers turf and she is bred to go long on turf. <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Ryabinka">RYABINKA</a></b> (Sharp Humor - West Coast Kitty, by Bertrando) is the most experienced runner in the field with four starts under her girth. After winning her maiden in her third attempt, the sprint-oriented filly finished seventh in the Cassidy Stakes at Gulfstream after having to check at the 1/16 pole. Her dam is a half to Triple Bend (G-1) winner <b>UNFURL THE FLAG</b>. <h2></h2> <h2 align="center"><b><font color="#800000" size="4">SELECTIONS</font></b></h2> <p>In the last four years, pace setters haven’t done so well in the Spinaway. The winners either pressed the pace (sat third/fourth) or were one-run types. There’s an 80% chance of rain in the late afternoon. <p><b>CURALINA </b>is the only one with experience in the mud, although <b>RYABINKA</b> won her maiden on a good track. That one has a superior mud pedigree. <b>BY THE MOON, ANGELA RENE, CONDO COMMANDO</b> and <b>BONNIE K</b> also have good mud pedigrees. <p>Angela Rene is the class of the race, but just about any one of these fillies could step up and beat her. If <b>CURALINA</b> gets a good trip, she could be right there. <b>BY THE MOON</b> has the pedigree to stretch out and the running style to be effective. <b>BONNIE K </b>could surprise.<b> </b> <p><b></b> <p><b>#2 ANGELA RENE</b> <p><b>#7 CURALINA</b> <p><b>#4 BY THE MOON</b> <p><b><i>#9 BONNIE K – longshot pick</i></b> <p><strong><em></em></strong> <h2></h2> <p align="center"><font size="5"><font color="#800000"><strong>HOPEFUL STAKES</strong></font></font> <p>The seven furlong <a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/stakes/Hopeful"><b>Hopeful Stakes</b></a> was inaugurated in 1903. In 1973, the American Graded Stakes Committee bestowed Grade 1 status on the race. Traditionally, the Hopeful was the first Grade 1 event held for juveniles in the country. Winners of the prestigious race include the first fillies to win the Belmont Stakes and Kentucky Derby, Tanya and Regret, the legendary Man O'War, plus Triple Crown Champs Whirlaway, Secretariat and Affirmed. After Affirmed's victory, the last two horses to capture the Hopeful Stakes and a Triple Crown race were Preakness winner Summer Squall in 1989 and Preakness/Belmont hero Afleet Alex in 2004. <p>The Hopeful Stakes can be a good indicator of Breeders’ Cup strength. In the last three years, The Hopeful hero has either won or placed in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. In 2012, Shanghai Bobby completed the Hopeful/Juvenile double to capture the Eclipse Award as outstanding Two Year Old Colt. <p>Perhaps it is a sign of modern American breeding trends that the majority of the Hopeful Stakes winners since 2000 have continued their careers as sprinter – middle distance runners. <p>This year's Hopeful appears pretty light. I Spent It, winner of the Saratoga Special faces mostly last out maiden winners and some who still haven’t visited the winner’s circle. <p><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/I_Spent_It"><b><img title="I Spent It 2" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline" border="0" alt="I Spent It 2" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-_QYfThaSRiw/VAI5WGUtSdI/AAAAAAAABhI/s4T0jxXcccw/I%252520Spent%252520It%2525202%25255B5%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="115" align="left" height="120"> I SPENT IT</b></a> has raced from off of the pace in both starts. The son of Freshman Sire Super Saver conquered a strong group in the Saratoga Special by 2 ¾ lengths. His main competition may come from another son of Super Saver, <a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Competitive_Edge"><b>COMPETITIVE EDGE</b></a>. That one ran away from maidens in his debut, galloping under the wire ten lengths in front and getting six furlongs in 1:09 3/4. The third place horse from that race has come back to win. The fourth place finisher was Hopeful entrant <a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Sharm"><b>SHARM</b></a>, who finished 14 lengths behind Competitive Edge. Sharm raced 16 days ago and finished third against maidens. Both colts were mentioned on the July 22 Kiddie List. <p> <p>The freshmen stallion Warrior’s Reward is proving to be a very good sire. His son <a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Requite"><b>REQUITE</b> </a>(Warrior's Reward - New Hope Seven, by Carson City) won a 5 ½ furlong sprint at first asking by 3/12 lengths. I’m not sure how classy he’ll turn out to be. Both half siblings are 1-13. Requite’s dam New Hope Seven is multiple stakes placed and owns the only blacktype in two generations. Requite posted the third highest late pace speed figure in the Hopeful. <p>The California-bred <a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Signature_Cat"><b>SIGNATURE CAT</b></a> finished second to the Quality Road colt Blofeld just 18 days ago. Signature Cat had a five length lead early in the race, but was passed by his rival and finished second, beaten a length at five furlongs. <p>A pair of longshot invaders from Florida, <a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Dekabrist"><b>DEKABRIST</b></a> and <a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Maratik"><b>MARATIK</b></a>, appear to have little chance. Dekabrist won two starts, including a minor stakes race at Gulfstream before flopping in the Birdonthewire Stakes, beaten soundly by 11 lengths. Maratik finished fourth, beaten six lengths in a maiden race at Gulfstream. <h2></h2> <h2 align="center"><b><font color="#800000" size="4">SELECTIONS</font></b></h2> <p><b>I SPENT IT</b> has the class edge in here. He can race on or off of the pace. If he stubs a hoof or doesn’t feel like running, <b>COMPETITIVE EDGE</b> could offer a challenge. Let’s toss <b>REQUITE</b> in there for the trifecta. <p>#5 <b>I SPENT IT</b> <p>#6 <b>COMPETITIVE EDGE</b> <p>#3 <b>REQUITE</b> ThoroFan Handicapper's Cornerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03177519642532691985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7507011268295815218.post-25760344494020421942014-08-29T12:35:00.001-04:002014-08-29T12:54:13.513-04:00Del Mar Debutante a Strong Prep for BC Juvie Fillies<p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-CkWfiHIpJkc/VACwFUvVpfI/AAAAAAAABgY/L43A-4xwxeg/s1600-h/BC%252520Juvie%252520Fillies%252520RiaAntonia%25255B7%25255D.jpg"><img title="BC Juvie Fillies RiaAntonia" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline" border="0" alt="BC Juvie Fillies RiaAntonia" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-BKSMqHFr-m8/VACwFxE8twI/AAAAAAAABgg/P_1_ExVaw_o/BC%252520Juvie%252520Fillies%252520RiaAntonia_thumb%25255B5%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="124" align="left" height="110"></a> Since 2000, seven fillies who would later be crowned Champion Two Year Olds have contested the seven furlong <a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/stakes/Del_Mar_Debutante">Del Mar Debutante</a> (G-1). Three of them, Halfbridled, Sweet Catomine and Stardom Bound, won the Debutante and completed a Debutante/BC Juvenile Fillies double. Tempera, Blind Luck and Beholder were runners-up in the Debutante but won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. All would capture the Eclipse Award as outstanding two year old filly. Last year’s Debutante heroine She’s a Tiger won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies by a thrilling nose, but was disqualified for interference. She was still named Champion Juvenile Filly. <p> <p>This year, a field of nine hopefuls will enter the starting gate at Del Mar. All except two fillies won their last start. Bob Baffert has sent out seven winners since 1997. Let’s review the field. <p><b><img title="Seduire" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline" border="0" alt="Seduire" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-6NKEMh13kPQ/VACruuC4FGI/AAAAAAAABfo/YJuGSp0WMWU/Seduire%25255B7%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="109" align="left" height="78"></b><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Seduire">SEDUIRE</a></b> (Elusive Quality - Holy Eclair, by Holy Bull) was a distant second, beaten by over six lengths by Sunset Glow in the Sorrento. The pretty gray filly tries Polytrack for the first time. Her sire gets 12% winners at Del Mar and enters for leading trainer Hollendorfer. Top jock Elvis Trujillo rides. <p><b></b> <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Manahatta">MANAHATTA</a></b> (Old Fashioned - Ermelinda, by Sea Hero) made all of the pace in her debut, beating Windy Forecast and Dad’s Princess by a length, despite drifting out. Manahatta is her sire’s only winner over the Del Mar Polytrack. She’s a half to stakes placed <b>Game for More</b> and Terrys<b> Tom</b> <b>Cat</b>. She’s a stablemate to Seduire, and Bejarano rides back. <p> <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Starlet_Ohara">STARLET O'HARA </a></b>(Discreetly Mine - My Chanel, by Gilded Time) showed improvement in her second start, stretching out and switching to Poly. Discreetly Mine is a superior Polysire. Mentioned on an early June Kiddie List, Starlet O’Hara is a half to multiple graded stakes placed turf router <b>Trend</b>. Their dam is a half to the graded stakes winning veterans WANDERING<b> BOY, EARLY WARNING</b> and graded stakes placed <b>Vivid Sunset</b>. The second dam <b>VID KID</b> is a stakes winning Juvenile. Starlet O’Hara is trained by Bob Baffert. <p> <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Dads_Princess">DAD'S PRINCESS</a></b> (Mineshaft - Rooneys Princess, by Deputy Minister) was off slow in her debut, but made up ground to finish third to Manahatta, earning the highest late pace speed figure in the field. Extra distance will help, but Mineshaft’s progeny are 1-28 at Del Mar. Dad’s Princess is a half sister to Mountaineer Juvenile winner Prince Rooney. Their second dam is Champion Older Mare, Princess Rooney. Cassidy/Smith have won/placed in three of four attempts in the last two weeks. <p> <p><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Sunset_Glow"><b><img title="Sunset Glow" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline" border="0" alt="Sunset Glow" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-WoXfsw5d0WM/VACrveOZZZI/AAAAAAAABgA/gYBKWCFkLtE/Sunset%252520Glow%25255B7%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="67" align="left" height="84"> SUNSET GLOW</b></a> (Exchange Rate - Perfectforthepart, by Dynaformer) jetted to a 3 ¼ length win in the Sorrento Stakes in her last start. Fillies exiting that race have done well in the Debutante. In 2012 <b>EXECUTIVEPRIVILEGE</b> captured both races. Last year, <b>SHE’S A TIGER</b> was second in the Sorrento before being crowned in the Debutante. The pretty gray Sunset Glow is the first foal born of her stakes placed dam. There’s little blacktype in this distaff family, although the third dam <b>ANDESTINE </b>is a Grade 1 winner. <p><b></b> <p><b></b> <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Her_Emmynency">HER EMMYNENCY</a> </b>(Successful Appeal - Chic Dancer, by Joyeux Danseur) sat in third in the early stages of her debut before scoring a 2 ¾ length win. She was mentioned in the July 8 Kiddie List. Her dam won the G-3 Modesty at 1 3/16 miles and the 1 1/16 mile Flawlessly both over the lawn. There isn’t much blacktype in the first two distaff generations, but the second dam is a half sister to 3 time California Champ <b>BEST PAL</b>. Her Emmynency has posted two strong post-race breezes. <p> <p><b></b> <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Stealth_Drone">STEALTH DRONE</a></b> (Smoke Glacken - Stealth Cat, by Magic Cat) battled gamely on the inside and fought back after being headed, earning a determined ½ length victory in her debut in a maiden claimer. She was quickly snatched up by Doug O’Neil. Her dam is a multiple stakes winning sprinter and owns the only blacktype in two generations of this female family. <p> <p><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Conquest_Eclipse"><b><img title="Conquest Eclipse" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline" border="0" alt="Conquest Eclipse" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-crVlG103H7k/VACrv31R2lI/AAAAAAAABf0/m20ecrZhooA/Conquest%252520Eclipse%25255B8%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="109" align="left" height="85"> CONQUEST ECLIPSE</b></a> (Malibu Moon - Grand Traverse Bay, by Repriced) was mentioned on the July 1 Kiddie List. Trained by Mark Casse, Conquest Eclipse stopped the clock in 1:11.48 in her debut at Churchill. This will be Conquest Eclipse’s first start in California. Her unraced dam is a half to Sweet Damsel, who bore Travers Stakes winner and sire <b>COLONEL JOHN</b>. Conquest Eclipse has posted a series of five furlong breezes for her start in the Debutante. <p><b></b> <p><b></b> <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Windy_Forecast">WINDY FORECAST</a></b> (4-1) fought hard in her debut and finished in between Manahatta and Dad’s Princess. Windy Forecast is a half sister to stakes winners <b>TRES CORONAS, DESCAPATE</b> and stakes placed <b>Brocco Bry</b>. Talamo sticks with Her Emmynency and Kenty D. picks up the mount. <h2></h2> <h2 align="center"><b><font color="#800000" size="4">Selections</font></b></h2> <p>Speed from the rail has been dominant the entire Del Mar Meet. Last week, 67% of the front runners wired the field. Six of the nine fillies in the Debutante have early speed. That being said, all but one of the last seven winners sat in fourth place or farther back before making their move. Last year’s winner She’s a Tiger, was a far back second place before making up almost five lengths to win. <p><b>SUNSET GLOW</b> is the class of the field and the most accomplished with four starts under her girth. <b>STARLET O'HARA</b> doesn’t need the lead to win and is Baffert’s sole entry. <b>HER EMMYNENCY</b> has a good running style for this race. Have to respect <b>SEDUIRE</b>, who has speed on the rail. <b>DAD'S PRINCESS</b> will benefit from the extra distance. <p><strong>#5 SUNSET GLOW</strong> <p><strong>#3 STARLET O'HARA</strong> <p><b>#6 </b><b>HER EMMYNENCY </b> <p><b><i>#4 DAD'S PRINCESS – longshot pick</i></b> ThoroFan Handicapper's Cornerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03177519642532691985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7507011268295815218.post-30769958953064170542014-08-26T15:07:00.001-04:002014-08-26T15:07:30.663-04:00P.G. Johnson a glimpse at BC Juvie Fillies Turf<p><img title="PG Johnson contenders" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline" border="0" alt="PG Johnson contenders" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-1qJoJY-pmSY/U_za7vaCUqI/AAAAAAAABfQ/7w8R05lXD7A/PG%252520Johnson%252520contenders%25255B4%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="244" align="left" height="133"> The P.G. Johnson Stakes is a chance for the turf fillies to show off while running 1 1/6 miles at Saratoga. Some quality fillies have exited this race to earn further blacktype. <b>TAPITSFLY</b> captured the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fililes Turf. In 2019 <b>KATHMANBLU</b> placed in both races and in 2012, <b>WATSDACHANCES</b> won the PG Johnson and was second in the Breeders’ Cup. <p><b></b> <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Ancient_Goddess">ANCIENT GODDESS</a></b> (Iffraaj (GB) - Jezebel (GB), by Owington (GB)) raced twice in France, finishing second in her debut and winning in her second attempt, both times against the colts. The second place finisher came back to win. There isn’t much blacktype in her female family. She’s a large two-turn looking filly that should appreciate the extra distance. Trainer John Terranova breezed her an easy four furlongs over the turf course six days ago. Ancient Goddess will receive first time Lasix. <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Sunday_Sonnet">SUNDAY SONNET</a></b> (Any Given Saturday - Red Piano, by Red Ransom) tries the lawn for the first time after a dominating 7 ½ length performance over a sloppy Saratoga track. Chances are good that she’ll like the turf. Sunday Sonnet is a half sister to multiple Grade 3 turf star <strong>PIANIST </strong>(More Than Ready) and two other half siblings placed over grass. Her damsire was a leading sire in England and Australia, while her second damsire was the Classic chef-de-race and top turf horse Nureyev. Trainer Kelly Breen wins with 22% first tine grass starters. <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Partisan_Politics">PARTISAN POLITICS</a></b> (More Than Ready - Bluegrass Princess, by Dynaformer) was third in her 5 ½ furlong debut, beaten a bare neck by Rainha Da Bateria. The farther the better for this filly. Her dam won the 1 1/16 mile Valley View Stakes (G-3) and placed in two graded stakes at 1 1/8 miles. Trainer Chad Brown is a top conditioner of turf runners. <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Flying_Tipat">FLYING TIPAT</a></b> (Tapit - Flying Marlin, by Marlin) is the only filly in the field who has raced at 1 1/16 miles over the lawn. She just missed in her debut by ¾ length after going four wide on the turn. Flying Tipat is a full sister to BC Juvenile Fillies Turf heroine <strong>TAPITSFLY,</strong> who also won the P. G. Johnson Stakes in 2009. The full sisters are conditioned by Dale Romans. <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Magnificent_Margo">MAGNIFICENT MARGO</a></b> (Congrats - Holy Miss, by Holy Bull) angled out three wide and nailed her debut by a nose at 5 ½ furlongs. She’s a half sister to the stakes winning veterans <strong>GENERAL CHARLEY </strong>and <strong>TRULY LUCKY </strong>(both by Truluck) and the stakes placed juvenile <strong>Holy Mission </strong>(Open Forum). Trainer Mike Maker gets 21% winners in non-graded stakes. <p><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Rainha_Da_Bateria_1"><b>RAINHA DA BATERIA</b> </a>(Broken Vow - Amelia, by Dixieland Band) was mentioned on the Kiddie List in July. After settling in sixth place for most of the race, Rainha Da Bateria unleashed a furious charge to win a blanket photo finish by a head. She’s a half to MSW <strong>KINDERGARDEN KID (</strong>by Dynaformer), stakes winner <strong>ASSATEAGUE </strong>(by Stormy Atlantic) and stakes placed <strong>He's Had Enough </strong>(by Tapit). In this distaff family, the colts have proven to be the better runners. Out of three fillies, only one has hit the board and she’s a stakes winner. Four of five half siblings raced and hit the board as 2YO. The first two dams own blacktype and the second dam is a full sister to Champion 3YO Filly <strong>ALTHEA. </strong>Third dam is the blue hen,<strong> Courtly Dee. </strong>Rainha Da Bateria is trained by Graham Motion. Only 6% of his grass horses win second time out.<strong></strong> <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Slava_1">SLAVA</a></b> (Sharp Humor - Splendorella, by Deputy Minister) is the most experienced filly in the field with three races under her girth. After winning her second race sprinting at Gulfstream, she finished a distant second in an allowance race to eventual stakes placed Naval Command. Slava is the second of her dam’s foals to race. There’s no blacktype in the first two generations of her distaff family. Her dam won on Polytrack, placed over dirt, but was unplaced in her sole turf race. Trainer Gennadi Dorochenko is 3-76 with turf runners. <h2></h2> <h1></h1> <h4></h4> <h2 align="center"><b><font color="#800000" size="4">Selections</font></b></h2> <p>The PG Johnson Stakes has been contested seven times. Three of those editions were won by pace setters. One pace presser and mid-pack runner won, while two winners unleashed their run from the back of the pack. <p>There appears to be very little early pace in the PG Johnson. Sunday Sonnet has won on the lead and could be the pace setter. If she slows them down enough, she could wire the field. Magnificent Margo and Slava have also raced near the pace. These young fillies are discovering their best running style, so any one of them could change tactics and be closer to the pace if it is slow. <p><b>#5 MAGNIFICANT MARGO </b> <p><b>#1 ANCIENT GODDESS</b> <p><b>#6 RAINHA DA BATERIA </b> <p><b><i>#4 FLYING TIPAT – LONGSHOT SELECTION</i></b> ThoroFan Handicapper's Cornerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03177519642532691985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7507011268295815218.post-14969560427712598272014-08-10T09:39:00.001-04:002014-08-10T09:39:55.020-04:00SARATOGA SPECIAL STAKES SELECTIONS<p>The <a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/stakes/Saratoga_Special">Saratoga Special</a> (G-2) is the second of three graded stakes for two year old colts at Saratoga. <p><img title="Sanford_Stakes" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline" border="0" alt="Sanford_Stakes" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-qQJsUHH91cU/U-d2JY7-wzI/AAAAAAAABew/aQmnVw6btgQ/Sanford_Stakes%25255B8%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="115" align="left" height="94"> The first, theSanford Stakes (G-3) was won in a thriller <a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Big_Trouble">Big Trouble</a>, by a neck over a bothered Mr. Z and a game Cinco Charlie, who kept his neck in front of an also game Nona’s Boy. Unfortunately, Big Trouble, living up to his name, tore a suspensory ligament in his right foreleg recently and will be out of commission for about six months. However, Mr. Z, and Cinco Charlie and Nona’s boy are back for more and will be challenged by Lone Star Park’s TTA Sales Futurity hero W V Jetsetter and seven last out maiden winners. The top three or four colts will most likely contest the Hopeful Stakes (G-1) on September 1. <p> <p>Of the three Sanford Stakes contenders, <a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Mr_Z"><strong>Mr. Z</strong> </a>(Malibu Moon - Stormy Bear, by Storm Cat) had the worst trip. He had every reason to give it up on the final turn when Cory Lanerie checked off of the heels of Nona’s Boy, whom he’d been following around the turn. Mr. Z was sharply guided towards the rail to avoid an incident while Nona’s Boy took on the pace setter Cinco Charlie. In mid-stretch, Mr. Z found himself boxed behind the two pace setters in front and Big Trouble to his outside. Cory Lanerie aggressively bashed the game Mr. Z against Big Trouble, forcing that rival out. The two nailed the battling Cinco Charlie and Nona’s Boy at the wire. Mr. Z was making his second career start in the Sanford. It’s impossible to say how much that wild ride took out of the colt, but he must be included here. <p>If Mr. Z wins the award for worst trip, <a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Cinco_Charlie"><strong>Cinco Charlie</strong></a> wins for fastest horse in the field. He battled three wide through a blazing :21.65 first quarter and a :45.17 half. The son of Indian Charlie melted <a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Chocolate_Wildcat">Chocolate Wildcat</a> by the ½ mile pole and the other early rival, <a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Bessies_Boy">Bessie’s Boy</a>, retreated soon thereafter. Cinco Charlie had no time to slow down. As Bessie’s Boy was going in reverse, Nona’s Boy challenged Cinco Charlie on the outside. The two rivals battled head and head to the shadow of the wire, where they were passed by Big Trouble and Mr. Z. The big question is – can Cinco Charlie hold that blazing speed an additional furlong? If he can slow the pace by a second or two, yes, he probably can. <p>Take nothing away from <a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Nonnas_Boy"><strong>Nona’s Boy</strong></a> for his fourth place finish. He settled nicely off of the pace in the early going and provided a challenge at the top of the stretch. He didn’t miss by much and you can be sure that Todd Pletcher will have Nona’s Boy ready to mount a serious threat. <p>So, who can challenge the top three? <p><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/I_Spent_It"><strong><img title="ISpentIt_1_" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline" border="0" alt="ISpentIt_1_" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/--YMbxQVCRDU/U-d2J46CTuI/AAAAAAAABe0/c0ZQu77WmYw/ISpentIt_1_%25255B9%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="115" align="left" height="94"> I Spent It </strong></a>had a noteworthy debut. While arguing for the lead, he was passed and had to check due to another horse passing and cutting in. The son of Freshman sire Super Saver was allowed to collect himself. In the stretch I Spent It appeared to hang, then shifted gears while drifting out from the whip. He still managed to win the sprint by ½ length. The colt posted a pre-race bullet to sharpen him for this race. <p> <p> <p><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Stanford_1"><strong><img title="Stanford" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline" border="0" alt="Stanford" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-9PL5x1vWCQA/U-d2KZR9SdI/AAAAAAAABe8/NGcE55P_MGw/Stanford%25255B7%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="115" align="left" height="94"> Stanford</strong></a> is the “other” Pletcher runner, the first being Nona’s Boy. He needed a few furlongs to find his stride, but once he did, the race was over. The son of Malibu Moon glided under the wire 1 ½ lengths in front. Pletcher won this race last year with Corfu and you know he’ll have Stanford ready to go. <p> <p> <p><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Rod_Mcleod"><strong>Rod McLeod</strong></a> likewise had a bothered debut. After stalking early, he had to steady on the turn and swung four wide. The son of Roman Ruler breezed by the leaders to win by ¾ a length. Rod McLeod is the The Dale Romans trainee enters off of a pre-race bullet work. <p><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Tizcano"><strong>Tizcano </strong></a>outclassed a group of maidens at Gulfstream by 6 ½ lengths. He’s a son of Alcibiades Stakes heroine Westerly Breeze and Tiznow. Tizcano switched to Peter Miller’s barn and has posted three moderate works. <p>Lord Tyrion, Cleveland Sound, Majestic Affair and W V Jetsetter won at minor tracks and may be up against it. <h2></h2> <h2 align="center"><b><font size="4">Selections</font></b></h2> <p>Tizcano appears to have enough early speed to keep Cinco Charlie busy on the front end for at least half of the race. Nona’s Boy made a strong middle move in the Sanford couldn’t handle Cinco Charlie after that one blazed a fast early pace. Mr. Z may regress a bit off of his eventful trip. I Spent It and Rod McLeod had pre-race bullet works and should be at their best. Always beware of the Pletcher horse with the higher odds. Stanford should appreciate the extra distance. <p><b>#1 I Spent It (7-2)</b> <p><b>#6 Nona’s Boy (4-1)</b> <p><b>#7 Cinco Charlie (9-2)</b> <p><b>#8 Stanford (12-1)</b> <p><i><strong>#5 Rod McLeod – longshot pick (alternate should one scratch)</strong></i> <p><strong><em></em></strong> <p><strong><em>Photos #1 & #2 by <a href="http://www.eclipsesportswire.com/" target="_blank">Eclipse Sportswire</a>.</em></strong> <p><strong><em></em></strong> </p> <div id="scid:0767317B-992E-4b12-91E0-4F059A8CECA8:35fe1219-4c49-4f6c-a936-fcc5acc699de" class="wlWriterEditableSmartContent" style="float: none; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px">Technorati Tags: <a href="http://technorati.com/tags/2014+Two+Year+Olds" rel="tag">2014 Two Year Olds</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/The+Kiddie+List" rel="tag">The Kiddie List</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Juvenile+Stakes+Races" rel="tag">Juvenile Stakes Races</a></div> ThoroFan Handicapper's Cornerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03177519642532691985noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7507011268295815218.post-46957272496818805332014-07-17T16:01:00.001-04:002014-07-17T16:01:02.169-04:00SCHUYLERVILLE & SANFORD STAKES at SARATOGA<h2 align="center"><font color="#800000"><font size="4">SCHUYLERVILLE STAKES</font> </font></h2> <p><b></b> <p>Summer is here and along with it comes the opening of Saratoga Racetrack for another season. Adding to the heat is the barbecue which will be held during the <a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/stakes/Schuylerville"><b>Schuylerville Stakes</b></a><b> </b>(G3). No, not the kind where steaks sizzle over an open fire. This type of barbecue entails five juvenile fillies all gunning for the lead. Who can endure a broiling pace, who will be baked and which one of them can cool her heels and come from off of the pace? <p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-BYwJ6a44KfI/U8grbsbU0II/AAAAAAAABd8/6xQwEW9urfI/s1600-h/Take%252520Charge%252520Brandi%25255B4%25255D.jpg"><img title="Take Charge Brandi" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline" border="0" alt="Take Charge Brandi" src="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-UbgtBcX3yg4/U8grcnuaHQI/AAAAAAAABeA/N-EUMuF6iUo/Take%252520Charge%252520Brandi_thumb%25255B2%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="120" align="left" height="147"></a> All five youngsters enter this Grade 3 event off of a victory. The trainer with the most victories in the Schuylerville is Wayne Lukas. He owned the race from 1986 – 1988, won it again in 1995, 1999 and his latest triumph was in 2004 with Classic Elegance. This year, Lukas has entered the very well-bred <a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Take_Charge_Brandi"><b>TAKE CHARGE BRANDI</b></a><b> </b>who has been mentioned on The Kiddie List a few times. Her dam is a half to Florida Derby winner <strong>TAKE CHARGE INDY</strong> and multiple G-1 winner <a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Will_Take_Charge">WILL TAKE CHARGE</a><strong>. </strong>By Giant’s Causeway out of a Seeking the Gold mare, Take Charge Brandi is bred to relish two turns, but she showed her class and her heels to a group of maidens at Churchill traveling 4 ½ furlongs in :52 1/5. Lukas has only a 8% win rate with his stakes horses, but never, ever count him out, as his horses will ruin your exotics when least expected. He’s sneaky that way. <p><strong></strong> <p> <p>Lukas’ former assistant Todd Pletcher is no stranger to the winner’s circle at Saratoga. He’s won the Schuylerville four times, the last was in 2011 with Georgie’s Angel. This year, he’s brought a nicely-bred daughter of Old Fashioned.<strong> </strong><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Fashion_Alert"><strong>FASHION ALERT</strong></a>, a half-sister to Santa Ynez Stakes (G-2) winner <b>RENE’S TITAN</b>, skipped the maiden races and went straight for the blacktype. The daughter of Old Fashioned made all of the pace in the Astoria Stakes. Although the Pletcher trained miss raced greenly, Fashion Alert made short work of her opponents in the 5 ½ furlong race, winning by 4 ¾ lengths. She’s posted three very strong post-race works and will be tough to beat. <p>The remaining three trainers, Gary Contessa, Richard Mettee and John Robb, are all looking for their first Schuylerville trophy. <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Evrybdymstgetstonz">EVRYBDYMSTGETSTONZ</a></b> surprised a field of state-bred maidens at Belmont by rolling gate to wire, getting 5 ½ furlongs in 1:05 2/5 while six lengths in front. In her last breeze, she had a strong 3 furlong “lung opener” of :35 1/5 (2/13). She’s entering back after only 16 days. <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Tuliras_Star">TULIRA'S STAR</a></b> is a daughter of Congrats and a half sister to multiple stakes winning veteran <strong>MOUNTAIN GENERAL</strong> and Challenger Stakes winner <strong>TULIRA CASTLE. </strong>She won her debut over the Arlington Poly and has since switched to the barn of Richard Mettee. She’s 5-2 morning line, but her trainer is 0-11 with two year olds this year. <p>Breaking from post one is <b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Mast_Cove">MAST COVE</a></b>. The daughter of Cowboy Cal is the most experienced filly in the field, with three starts under her girth. She’s posted improving speed figures in every start against maiden claimers. Mast Cove is the first of her dam’s foals to race. Her dam Crafty Melissa is a half to Oake Tree Derby (G-2) winner <b>MUNY</b>. Mast Cove has fired three post-race bullets and her race fractions are comparable to the other contestants. John Robb is 22% with shippers. <h2></h2> <h2><b><font color="#800000" size="4">SELECTIONS</font></b></h2> <p>The last five winners of the Schuylerville either sat mid-pack or pressed the pace.<strong> MAST COVE </strong>and <strong>TULIRA'S STAR</strong> have shown the ability to sit off of an early pace. On paper, <b>FASHION ALERT</b> is the fastest filly in the race. She could wire the field, but given that there are only five fillies entered, it’s unlikely that she’ll establish a clear lead. Let’s tab <b>TAKE CHARGE BRANDI</b> for the upset. Lukas knows how to get them ready for a big race. She breaks outside of all of the speed and her pedigree should enable her to go wide without effort. <p><b></b> <p><b>#5 TAKE CHARGE BRANDI (6-1) </b> <p><b>#4 FASHION ALERT (3-5) </b> <p><b>#2 TULIRA'S STAR (5-2) </b> <p><strong></strong> <h2><strong></strong></h2> <h2 align="center"><font color="#800000" size="4">SANFORD STAKES</font></h2> <p>First contested in 1913, the <a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/stakes/Sanford">Sanford Stakes (G-3)</a> has a list of winners that reads like a who’s who of racing legends. The 1914 winner was the filly Regret, who would become the first filly to win the Kentucky Derby the following year. Other major winners include champions Tom Fool, Hail To Reason, Secretariat, Affirmed, Forty Niner and Afleet Alex. Famous also-rans include the great Man O’War who suffered his only defeat in the Sanford Stakes in 1919, Triple Crown hero Omaha, and Champion Juvenile Boston Harbor. <p>This year, a field of nine colts will vie for the honor of adding their name to the illustrious roll call of the Sanford Stakes. Trainer Wayne Lukas and Todd Pletcher are tied for the most wins in modern history, with five each. <p>Surprisingly, although they enter charges almost yearly Steve Asmussen, and Wesley Ward haven’t had a victory in the Sanford. Also looking for their first wins are Tony Dutrow, Jason Servis, Bret Calhoun, Eddie Pleasa, and Kevin Rice. Asmussen and Ward finished second and third, respectively in last year’s Sanford Stakes. <p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-uZN7JaWpMq8/U8grdP8kfxI/AAAAAAAABeI/WQrME8yYC_Y/s1600-h/Cinco%252520Charlie%25255B5%25255D.jpg"><img title="Cinco Charlie" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline" border="0" alt="Cinco Charlie" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-4jF9nr5RHN4/U8greB0zOZI/AAAAAAAABeQ/d4Xavd8z_Y0/Cinco%252520Charlie_thumb%25255B3%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="113" align="left" height="90"></a> This year’s undefeated Bashford Manor (G-3) winner <a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Cinco_Charlie"><b>CINCO CHARLIE</b></a> looks strongest on paper. From the last crop of deceased sire Indian Charlie, Cinco Charlie is the first of his three siblings to earn blacktype. His juvenile stakes placed dam is a half sister to multiple graded stakes winners and sires <b>BWANA CHARLIE</b>, his full brother, <b>MY PAL CHARLIE </b>(by Indian Charlie) plus <strong>BWANA BULL </strong>(by Holy Bull). Cinco Charlie had a slow pre-race work over the Saratoga training track. He breaks from the outside for Asmussen. <p> <p>Runner-up in the Bashford Manor was the courageous <a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Silverhill"><strong>SILVERHILL</strong></a>. His sire Silver City, an unheralded son of Unbridled’s Song who is standing in Texas for a $2K stud fee, sired recent Debutant heroine Promise Me Silver, Silverhill’s stablemate. The pretty gray colt was only beaten 1 ¾ lengths after disputing the pace in the Bashford Manor and he has excellent numbers. I’m taking a stand against as his speed figure jumped 15 points from his first to second race and his last breeze was on the slow side. <p>Wesley Ward brings Tremont Stakes hero <b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Bessies_Boy">BESSIE'S BOY</a></b> to contest the Sanford. The son of Champion Sprinter Smoke Glacken easily dominated the 5 ½ furlong race by six lengths in a very quick 1:03 4/5. He came back with a strong post-race 4 furlong work in :47 3/5 at Saratoga. Bessie’s Boy’s second dam <b>EXPENSIVE ISSUE</b> hit the board in all four starts at two, including a win in the Blue Hen Stakes. <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Chocolate_Wildcat">CHOCOLATE WILDCAT</a></b> was a distant second to Bessie’s Boy in the Tremont. The son of Wildcat Heir is bred to be precocious. His dam won two of three starts at two, including the Fashion Stakes. Unfortunately, she suffered a career-ending injury in the Astoria Stakes. She bore Chocolate Wildcat’s half brother <strong>CHRISTIESBORNTORUN</strong> who finished third in the Tremont in 2010. The John Servis trainee hasn’t recorded a breeze in the last month. <p>Three very promising maiden winners will take on more experienced horses. Two of the three have been featured on the Kiddie List. <p><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Mr_Z"><b><img title="Mr Z 2" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline" border="0" alt="Mr Z 2" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-A8EYDFfoJ9A/U8gre6_se2I/AAAAAAAABeY/yRKiQpKcQ9g/Mr%252520Z%2525202%25255B4%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="106" align="left" height="163"> MR. Z</b></a> is only one of two colts in the field who has won at six furlongs. In his Churchill debut the son of Malibu Moon battled with the pace setter through quick early fractions then prevailed over his rival by ½ length at the wire in a final time of 1:11.76 for the six furlongs. Mr. Z is a half to the UAE stakes placed <strong>Ibn Al Nafis </strong>(by Distorted Humor). Their dam<strong> </strong>Stormy Bear is a half to Champion Turf horse <b>CHIEF BEARHEART</b>, Hollywood Derby (G-1) winner <b>EXPLOSIVE</b> <b>RED</b>, stakes winner <b>RUBY RANSOM</b> and the stakes placed runners <strong>Memorized </strong>and <strong>Sundown Serenade. </strong>Mr. Z has worked two swift bullets for Wayne Lukas at Saratoga. <p><strong></strong> <p>A stakes race at Saratoga isn’t complete without a Pletcher runner.<b> <a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Nonnas_Boy">NONNA'S BOY </a></b>is a son of Distorted Humor out of Frizette runner-up Nonna Mia. His dam is a half to Nashua & holy Bull Stakes winner <b>CAIRO PRINCE</b> (by Pioneerof the Nile) and stakes placed <b>Holdin Bullets</b> (by Ghostzapper). Nona’s Boy splashed his way to a 5 ½ length win over a sloppy Belmont track in his debut. The second place horse Bustin It came back to win the Rockville Centre Stakes in his next start. Nona’s Boy has worked sharply since his debut. <p><b></b> <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Souper_Colossal">SOUPER COLOSSAL</a></b> is a son of the hot sire WAR FRONT out of a daughter of Kingmambo. Although he won his debut sprinting at Monmouth and has come back with a couple of decent post-race works, I think this colt’s future will be on the lawn. His second dam is a stakes-placed runner on turf and his third dam CAERLINA is a French Group 1 winner. Most of his distaff line is filled with European quality. Souper Colossal’s final time and speed figures weren’t that impressive and he simply outclassed this particular group of maidens. Can he surprise in the Sanford? Sure, anything is possible. <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Big_Trouble">BIG TROUBLE</a></b> was just that for a field of maidens last month at Belmont. He flew five furlongs in :59 flat and 4 12 lengths in front of his competition. He’s a full brother to the stakes placed sprinter <strong>Silver Lining John. </strong>Their dam is a half to graded stakes winners SUNSHINE FOR LIFE and TUBOK. The Tony Dutrow trainee blazed a bullet pre-race work in :59 4/5. <p><strong></strong> <p><strong>Making his first start over dirt is </strong><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Less_Than_Perfect">LESS THAN PERFECT</a></b>. Last seen finishing a distant fifth in the Victoria Stakes at Woodbine, the son of Pleasantly Perfect hasn’t breezed over the Saratoga dirt. His third dam is the graded stakes winner <b>METER MAID</b> but that’s it for blacktype in the immediate family. This colt should enjoy a stretch out in distance, but may be up against it here. <h2></h2> <h2><b><font color="#800000" size="4">SELECTIONS</font></b></h2> <p>Three of the last five years the favorite hasn’t won the Sanford Stakes. In four of the editions, the winner settled off of the pace. Since all of these colts have raced on or near the lead, it’s hard to determine which ones might give up the lead for a strong stretch drive. I’ll take a stand against the likely favorite <b>CINCO CHARLIE</b> and side with <b>BIG TROUBLE</b>. He put in the best work over the Saratoga track and he sat a length off of the pace setter in the early stages of his debut. <b>MR. Z</b> is also enticing at 30-1. He’s one of the best bred colts in the field. <p><b>#4 BIG TROUBLE (10-1)</b> <p><b>#8 NONA’S BOY (5-2)</b> <p><b>#9 CINCO CHARLIE (2-1)</b> <p><b><i>#5 MR. Z (30-1) – LONGSHOT PICK</i></b> <p> </p> <div id="scid:0767317B-992E-4b12-91E0-4F059A8CECA8:c0f339d8-895a-41fa-87b5-af77c0012984" class="wlWriterEditableSmartContent" style="float: none; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px">Technorati Tags: <a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Two+year+olds" rel="tag">Two year olds</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/The+Kiddie+List" rel="tag">The Kiddie List</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Juvenile+Stakes+Races" rel="tag">Juvenile Stakes Races</a></div> ThoroFan Handicapper's Cornerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03177519642532691985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7507011268295815218.post-29596515625895041992014-06-28T13:59:00.001-04:002014-06-28T13:59:27.009-04:00A Governmentshutdown in the BASHFORD MANOR?<p><img title="" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 5px 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline" border="0" alt="" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-EyX3EOf_t4U/U68Ce6HFAJI/AAAAAAAABds/GypBSu0hT-0/Governmentshutdown_Rollicking_2014_615x400_orig%25255B5%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="244" align="left" height="160"> The Bashford Manor is carded as Churchill’s sixth race. Typical of early season juvenile stakes races, distance challenged sprinters are prevalent in the six furlong event. The last colt to win/place in the Grade 3 event and have an influence on the following year’s Classics was 1989 Bashford Manor champ Summer Squall. In previous years, the back to back winners in 2006 and 2007, Circular Quay and Kodiak Kowboy, became multiple graded sprinter/milers. <p>This year’s Bashford Manor field is very competitive. All except one entrant is coming off of a maiden victory. Let’s take a look at the field and try to sort them out. <p>The most accomplished colt is morning line favorite at 2-1 <b>Governmentshutdown</b> (Exchange Rate - Shy Baby, by Out of Place). The gelded of Exchange Rate, showed maturity in only his third start in the Rollicking Stakes. The John Robb trainee was checked and had to steady before sweeping by them three wide to win the five furlong race by 3 ¾ lengths. The pretty gray gelding has shown increasing speed figures in each start and recorded two bullet breezes. <p>The second favorite at 9-5 is <b>Cinco Charlie</b> (Indian Charlie - Ten Halos, by Marquetry). His juvenile stakes placed dam is a half sister to multiple graded stakes winners and sires <b>BWANA CHARLIE</b> and his full brother, <b>MY PAL CHARLIE </b>(by Indian Charlie) plus <strong>BWANA BULL </strong>(by Holy Bull). The Asmussen trainee won his debut by a widening 2 ¾ lengths. His works have been steady, but not spectacular. <p><strong></strong> <p>The New York bred<strong> Skyway</strong> (Sky Mesa - Bedside Manner, by Dr. Blum) is 3-1. He’s a half to the multiple stakes winner <a href="https://www.brisnet.com/php/brisclub/AprOnline/report.php?foal_id=Mjc4Nzc2MA%3D%3D&mare_id=Mjc4Nzc2MA%3D%3D"><strong>AVA K.</strong></a> (by Dixie Union). Skyway broke from the rail in his debut at Keeneland and overpowered maidens to win a 4 ½ furlong MSW by over six lengths. He’s had plenty of time to recover and the Mark Casse trainee’s last three works have been brisk. <p>Sons of two freshmen sires could be worth a hard look. <b>Silverhill</b> (Silver City - Indian Nation, by Pleasant Tap) was off slow in his debut but cleared the field to win a five furlong MSW by 3 ¾ lengths. His sire Silver City, an unheralded son of Unbridled’s Song who is standing in Texas for a $2K stud fee, sired recent Debutant heroine Promise Me Silver. The stallion is ranked #2 on the Freshman Sire List. The pretty gray Silverhill, a stablemate of Promise Me Silver, has recorded some sharp works at Lonestar. <p>Two Year Old Champ Lookin at Lucky is off to a great second career as a stallion. His son <b>Lucky</b> <b>Player</b> ( Lookin At Lucky - Janetstickettocats, by Storm Cat) won his debut despite his rider losing the whip. The stablemate to Cinco Charlie gets an upgrade to Leparoux. Lucky Player’s dam is a half to multiple graded stakes winners <b>RUNWAY MODEL</b>, <b>MAMBO TRAIN</b> and stakes placed <b>Texas Kitty</b> and <strong>Elena Strikes</strong><strong>.</strong> <h2><strong> </strong></h2> <p><strong></strong> <h2 align="center"><strong><font color="#800000" size="4">SELECTIONS</font></strong></h2> <p><strong></strong> <p>Unlike previous years, not all of these colts appear need the lead types. <strong>Cinco Charlie </strong>may jump for the early lead and perhaps <strong>Skyway</strong> down on the rail will keep him company<strong>. Governmentshutdown</strong> is the most experienced colt in the field and the only stakes winner. He also owns the second highest late pace speed figure and it is hard to look past him. The outside posts have the advantage in this short field, so let’s take the two on the outside to hit the board. <p><b>#2 Governmentshutdown – First</b> <p><b>#5 Silverhill - Second</b> <p><b>#6 Lucky</b> <b>Player – Third</b> <p><strong></strong> </p> <div id="scid:0767317B-992E-4b12-91E0-4F059A8CECA8:8709e56e-b90f-465e-b989-88c88c229f64" class="wlWriterEditableSmartContent" style="float: none; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px">Technorati Tags: <a href="http://technorati.com/tags/pedigree+handicapping" rel="tag">pedigree handicapping</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/2014+two+year+olds" rel="tag">2014 two year olds</a></div> ThoroFan Handicapper's Cornerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03177519642532691985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7507011268295815218.post-43601403342690067412014-06-20T16:26:00.001-04:002014-06-20T16:28:46.538-04:00THE KIDDIE LIST JUNE 20, 2014<p><a href="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-Ln8oxHYqKiM/U6SY3-wWhMI/AAAAAAAABdU/yyImlsoqFsk/s1600-h/THE%252520%252520KIDDIE%252520%252520LIST%25255B2%25255D.jpg"><img title="THE KIDDIE LIST" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-left: 0px; display: block; margin-right: auto" border="0" alt="THE KIDDIE LIST" src="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-wLhWtKdYDjI/U6SY4c9NUII/AAAAAAAABdY/DXFK6uOc5Hw/THE%252520%252520KIDDIE%252520%252520LIST_thumb.jpg?imgmax=800" width="244" height="43"></a> </p> <p><b><font size="4">THE KIDDIE LIST IS MOVING TO THE </font><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/pedigree_power"><font size="4">PEDIGREE POWER BLOG</font></a><font size="4"> ON HORSE RACING NATION STARTING JUNE 23.</font> </b> <p>The Kiddie List searches for the best and brightest of this next generation of two year olds. Dullahan, El Padrino, Take Charge Indy, Union Rags, Creative Cause, Drill, Dreaming of Julia, Beholder,<b> </b>Kauai Katie, Emollient, Fortify and countless other runners were featured on the Kiddie List before they hit the national radar. Many juveniles that were highlighted on the Kiddie List rewarded their backers with double digit wins. <p>The Kiddie List will cover the best workers and blue bloods breezing four furlongs and farther. I’ll cover the New York, Kentucky, California and Florida tracks, and occasionally Arlington, Fair Hill and Monmouth. If a particularly well bred baby from the database shows up at another track, I’ll include that one as well. Due to the enormous number of juveniles, some of these names may show up only once or twice. It’s highly suggested that you use a virtual stable, available through Equibase, DRF or Brisnet to follow the babies in whom you’re most interested. <h2></h2> <h2 align="center"><b><font color="#800000" size="4">RESULTS</font></b></h2> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="3">SANTA ANITA</font></b> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="3">6/19/14 Race 1</font></b> <p><b>Caval</b> (Blame - Sultana, by Storm Cat) – featured on the June 19 Kiddie List, she’s the first winner for her Freshman Sire, Horse of the Year, Blame. Caval dueled on the outside, took command at the top of the stretch, raced greenly, but opened up to win the five furlong maiden race by 5 ½ lengths in a final time of :56.78. Paid $4.20 to win. <p><b>Haleys Rainbow</b> (Songandaprayer - Holy Spirit, by Ghostzapper) fought with Caval, but had to settle for second best, 7 ¼ lengths ahead of the third place finisher. Paid $2.60 to place. <p><b>So You Say</b> (Flatter - Hurricane Hannah, by Southern Halo) chased in third the whole way ‘round and was no match for the top two. No show wagering. <p>Exacta in the 4 horse field paid $8.20. <h2></h2> <h2 align="center"><b><font color="#800000" size="3">ENTRIES</font></b></h2> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="3">June 21, 2014</font></b> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="3">BELMONT PARK</font></b> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="3">Race 1 | MSW | 6F Turf</font></b> <p><b>Beauty Sisters</b> (War Front - Nafisah (IRE), by Lahib) $300K KEESEP13; She’s a half to UAE Gr. 3 winner <strong>SNAAFY </strong>(by Kingmambo). Their dam was second in an English listed stakes at age two and was a SW at three. Third dam MGSW <strong>AL BAHATHRI </strong>was an Irish Champion 3YO Filly. This entire distaff family is filled with European class. MGSW<strong> HAAFHD, RED CADEAUX, </strong>Hong Kong Horse of the Year <strong>MILITARY ATTACK </strong>and Dubai Duty Free (UAE-1) winner<strong> GLADIATORUS </strong>are all descended from this line. <p><b>Lamontagne</b> (Congrats - Orion's Daughter, by Tactical Cat) $95K FTKOCT13; Her dam is a full sister to the dam of Darley Alcibiades S. (G-1) and Sorrento S. (G-3) heroine <b>WICKEDLY PERFECT</b> (by Congrats). The dam is also a half to the dam of MGSW <b>SAILORS SUNSET</b>. <p><b>International Star</b> (Fusaichi Pegasus - Parlez, by French Deputy) $85K FTMSEP13; He’s a half to SW and juvie SP <b>FOOLS</b> <b>IN LOVE</b> (by Not For Love). This is the distaff line of MGSW <b>HALORY HUNTER</b> and his half brother, the Group 1 winner and sire <b>VAN NISTELROOY.</b> <p><b>Thank You</b> (Congrats - Actceptional, by Noactor) $60K FTNAUG13; The gelding is a half to SW <strong>OMNISCIENT</strong> (by Pulpit), SP runners <strong>Mrs. Debbie M</strong> (by War Chant) and <strong>Miss Emelina </strong>(by Big Brown). Another half sister bore Best Pal Stakes winner <strong>ALBERTS HOPE </strong>(by Run Away and Hide). This is the distaff line of SW sires <strong>LITTLEEXPECTATIONS and VALID EXPECTATIONS.</strong> <p><b>Spanish Armada</b> (War Front - Sister Marilyn, by Saint Ballado) $290K (RNA) KEEAPR13; He’s a full brother to French SP <strong>War Singer. </strong>There’s little blacktype in the immediate distaff line. Fourth dam is the Kentucky Oaks heroine and blue hen<strong> NATIVE STREET. </strong>Spanish Armada has RF inbreeding to Almahmoud through her daughters Natalma, dam of War Front’s grandsire <b>NORTHERN DANCER</b> and Cosmah, dam of <b>SAINT BALLADO’S</b> damsire <b>HALO</b>. <p><b>Penalty Phase</b> (Congrats - Bear's Lightning, by Maria's Mon) $27K KEESEP12; His SP dam is a full sister to the dam of SW <b>PEAK MARIAS WAY</b> and to the dam of G-1 winner <b>MEADOW BREEZE</b> and her half brothers, MGSW <b>OVERANALYZE </b>and GSW <b>MIGHTY MONSOON</b>. <p> <p><b></b> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="3">CHURCHILL DOWNS</font></b> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="3">RACE 8 | DEBUTANTE STAKES | 6 FURLONGS | 2YO FILLIES</font></b> <p><b>Unbridled Reward</b> (Warrior's Reward - Unbridled Appeal, by Unbridled) she’s a half sister to Belleofthebridle and Southern Parkway, who are juvenile stakes placed. First crop sire Warrior's Reward, a son of Medaglia D’Oro, has three starters, all winners. <p><b>Rachel's Ready</b> (More Than Ready - My Rachel, by Horse Chestnut (SAF)) She’s a half sister to <b>Firehouse Red</b> who placed in stakes at ages three and four. Her dam is G-3 stakes placed half sister to the graded stakes winners <b>JACK MILTON</b> (Transylvania S., Poker S.) and <b>PEACE PRESERVER</b> (Noble Damsel S.). <p><b>Promise Me Silver</b> (Silver City - Uno Mas Promesa, by Macho Uno) First crop sire Silver City, a son of Unbridled’s Song, has nine starters, four winners. There’s no blacktype in the first two generations of this female family. <p><b>Rousanne</b> (Desert Party - Auntie Soph, by Valiant Nature) First crop sire Desert Party has four starters, three winners. There’s no blacktype (stakes winners/placers) in the first two generations of the female family, however, the G-1 winners <b>CETEWAYO</b>, <b>WILCOX INN</b> and <b>DYNAFORCE</b> can be found in the third generation. <p><b>Irish Nuggets</b> (Irish Road - Nuggets, by Deep Gold) The dam is a full sister to the juvenile stakes placed One Good Reisen and a half to restricted stakes winner Da Candy Man, who also placed in a stakes at age two. <p><b>Ol Sanish</b> (Curlin - Dimple Pinch, by Smoke Glacken) The dam is a minor stakes winner and is a half sister to a minor stakes winner. There’s very little blacktype in this distaff line. <p> <p><b></b> <p><b></b> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="3">June 22, 2014</font></b> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="3">SANTA ANITA</font></b> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="3">Race 7 | Santa Anita Juvenile Stakes | 5 ½ Furlongs</font></b> <p><b>Homer Matt</b> (Majesticperfection - Ms. Cornstalk, by Indian Charlie) $625K FTFMAR13; He’s a half-brother to Canadian Champion Two Year Old Fillies <b>BIOFUEL</b> and <b>TU ENDIE WEI</b>. Freshman sire Majesticperfection has one winner from four starters.<b></b> <p>Mentioned on the June 19 Kiddie List,<b> Wake Up Nick</b> (Cindago - Storm Hearted, by Lion Hearted) (C) $35K BESMAR14; 1:00.60 (16/50); first work back for this 9 ¼ length MSW debut winner who zipped 4 ½ F in :51.22. Not much blacktype in the female family, but <b>watch for this one in the baby stakes</b> <b>races</b> at Del Mar. His sire is a superior Polysire with 23% winners and 50% ITM. Wake Up Nick is trained by Doug O’Neil. <p><b>Story to Tell</b> (Bluegrass Cat - Haddie Be Good, by Silver Deputy) $200K BESMAR14; His dam won the PG Johnson as a 2YO. This is the distaff line of G-1 winners <b>SWEET TALKER, INCLUDE ME OUT</b>, GSW <b>SILVER MEDALLION, CHECK THE LABEL</b> and SW <b>ON THE MENU</b>. <p><b>Henry's Holiday</b> (Harlan's Holiday - Ford Gallop, by Victory Gallop) $115K OBSMAR; His dam is a full sister to the precocious <b>VICTORY USA</b>, who won the Moccasin Stakes and placed in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, Frizette and Del Mar Debutante at age two and won the Beaumont S. (G-2) at three. Third dam is MGSW and new course record setter <b>FORESTA</b>. <h2></h2> <p><b></b> <h2 align="center"><b><font color="#800000" size="4">WORKS</font></b></h2> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="3">FLORIDA | CALDER</font></b> <p><b>Wicked Rascal</b> (West Acre - Seductive Lady, by Langfuhr) (C) 6/10/14 – 4F :52.20 (1/4); won his debut by 4 ½ lengths on May 18 in a 4 ½ furlong MSW. He’s a half to <strong>TWO T'S AT TWO B </strong>(by Untuttable) who won the<strong> </strong>Frank Gomez Memorial and the first leg of the Florida Stallion Stakes series, Dr. Fager Stakes. He placed in the two other contests of the series. Wicked Rascal is a half to <strong>SCANDALOUS ACT (Act of Duty) </strong>who swept three races in the Filly Division of the Florida Stallion Series -<strong> </strong>My Dear Girl, Susan’s Girl and Desert Vixen S. <strong>Don’t be surprised to see Wicked Rascal develop into a FL stakes horse.</strong> <p><strong></strong> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="3">GULFSTREAM PARK</font></b> <p><b>Southern Barbecue</b> (Hear No Evil - Sexy Stockings, by Tabasco Cat) (C) 6/11/14 - 5F :59.93 (2/7); He’s a full brother to MG1SW <strong>JACKSON BEND, </strong>and a half to SW <strong>GARTER BELT</strong> (by Anasheed) and to SP<strong> Grande Shores </strong>(Black Mambo). <p> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="3">PALM MEADOWS TRAINING CENTER</font></b> <p><b>Beautiful Tashy</b> (Pomeroy - Racene, by Miner's Mark) (F) $95K (RNA) OBSAPR14; 6/15/14 - 4F :49.90 (4/5) She’s a half to this year’s Fountain of Youth hero <strong>WILDCAT RED </strong>(by D’Wildcat) and to Jamaican SW <strong>RACING MACHINE </strong>(by Skimming). <h2></h2> <h2 align="center"><strong><font color="#800000" size="4">GLOSSARY</font></strong></h2> <p><strong>SW – Stakes Winner</strong> <p><strong>MSW – Multiple Stakes Winner</strong> <p><strong>GSW – Graded Stakes Winner (G1SW, G2SW, G3SW – Grade, 1, 2, 3 stakes winner)</strong> <p><strong>SP – Stakes Placed</strong> <p><strong>MSP – Multiple Stakes Placed</strong> <p><strong>GSP – Graded Stakes Placed</strong> <p><b>Blacktype</b> – A stakes race. A horse’s name is designated in bold print when they have won or placed in any stakes race. Names in bold capital letters designate a stakes winner, including Graded or Group races. Bold small lettered names specify that the horse has placed in a stakes race including Graded or Group races. Names with no bold print designate horses that have not won or placed in a stakes race and thus, they have no Blacktype. <p><b>Blue Hen</b> – A superior mare who has a widespread influence on the breed through her sons and daughters. Examples: La Troienne, Almahmoud, Somethingroyal. See <b>Rasmussen Factor</b> regarding inbreeding to these mares. <p><b>Broodmare Sire</b> – a/k/a <b>Damsire</b>. The sire of the dam.<b></b> <p><b>Classics – </b>In the US, for colts, Kentucky Derby-G1, Preakness Stakes [G1], Belmont Stakes [G1]; for fillies, Coaching Club of America Oaks [G1]. The classic distance in the US is one and one-quarter miles, (10 furlongs), the length of the Derby. In England, for colts, 2,000 Guineas [G1], Epsom Derby [G1], St. Leger Stakes [G1]; for fillies, 1,000 Guineas [G1], Epsom Oaks [G1]. The classic distance in England is one and one-half miles (12 furlongs), the length of their Derby. <p><b>Dam</b> – female parent of the horse (mother). <p><b>Damsire</b> – a/k/a <b>Broodmare sire</b>. The sire (father) of the dam. <p><b>Distaff Family</b> – a/k/a <b>Female Family</b> - The maternal line, starting with the dam, tracing back to the second dam, third dam, etc. <p><b>Full Brothers or Sisters – </b>Full brothers and sisters are by the same sire and out of the same dam. <p><b>Half Brothers or Sisters - </b>Half-brothers or sisters have the same dam but a different sire. <p><b>Inbreeding - </b>Mating of closely related individuals, for instance, <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/danehill">Danehill </a>is inbred to Natalma through her son, Northern Dancer, the grandsire of Danehill, and through Spring Adieu, the second dam of Danehill. Thus, Danehill is inbred through two half siblings to one dam. <p><b>Rasmussen Factor</b> – The "Rasmussen Factor" (or RF) is a term used to describe inbreeding to superior females (see <b>Blue Hen</b>) through different individuals in the first five generations. Leon Rasmussen and Rommy Faversham developed the breeding theory. The inbreeding must occur through the sire and the dam (on both sides of the pedigree) and the duplication of the inbred female must be within five generations. Examples of the RF Factor: <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/elusive+quality">Elusive Quality</a> – RF to Somethingroyal through her sons Secretariat and Sir Gaylord. <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/unbridled">Unbridled </a>– RF to Aspidistra through her son, Dr. Fager and daughter, Magic; Article by Leon Rasmussen regarding the <a href="http://www.werkhorse.com/pdf/RFSERIES.pdf">Rasmussen Factor</a>. <p><b>Sire</b> – male parent of the horse (father). A thoroughbred horse becomes a sire after one of his offspring is registered in the Jockey Club Registry.</p> <div id="scid:0767317B-992E-4b12-91E0-4F059A8CECA8:124eb715-8413-4555-828f-1cbb4248220f" class="wlWriterEditableSmartContent" style="float: none; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px">Technorati Tags: <a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Kiddie+List14" rel="tag">Kiddie List14</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/two+year+olds" rel="tag">two year olds</a></div> ThoroFan Handicapper's Cornerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03177519642532691985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7507011268295815218.post-16825208028746989082014-06-19T12:04:00.001-04:002014-06-19T12:11:08.717-04:00THE KIDDIE LIST JUNE 19, 2014<p><a href="http://lh5.ggpht.com/-oFYF6hFDCfg/U6MKCz7ynAI/AAAAAAAABc8/UVo5IgaTAWM/s1600-h/THE%252520%252520KIDDIE%252520%252520LIST%25255B2%25255D.jpg"><img title="THE KIDDIE LIST" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-left: 0px; display: block; margin-right: auto" border="0" alt="THE KIDDIE LIST" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-gygZ1SUt5WI/U6MKDrLgIjI/AAAAAAAABdA/UrjjkkWNL9Y/THE%252520%252520KIDDIE%252520%252520LIST_thumb.jpg?imgmax=800" width="244" height="43"></a> </p> <p>The Kiddie List searches for the best and brightest of this next generation of two year olds. Dullahan, El Padrino, Take Charge Indy, Union Rags, Creative Cause, Drill, Dreaming of Julia, Beholder,<b> </b>Kauai Katie, Emollient, Fortify and countless other runners were featured on the Kiddie List before they hit the national radar. Many juveniles that were highlighted on the Kiddie List rewarded their backers with double digit wins. <p>The Kiddie List will cover the best workers and blue bloods breezing four furlongs and farther. I’ll cover the New York, Kentucky, California and Florida tracks, and occasionally Arlington, Fair Hill and Monmouth. If a particularly well bred baby from the database shows up at another track, I’ll include that one as well. Due to the enormous number of juveniles, some of these names may show up only once or twice. It’s highly suggested that you use a virtual stable, available through Equibase, DRF or Brisnet to follow the babies in whom you’re most interested. <h2></h2> <h2 align="center"><b><font color="#800000" size="5">ENTERED</font></b></h2> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="3">SANTA ANITA</font></b> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="3">Entered 6/19/14 Race 1</font></b> <p><b>Caval</b> (Blame - Sultana, by Storm Cat) (F) $150K KEESEP13; June 14 - 5F :59.20 (2/49) handily from gate. She’s a half to Group 3 winner <b>DERBAAS</b>, who was a SP juvenile. The dam is a full sister to French G-1 winner <strong>ALJABR </strong>and the second dam <strong>SERRA MADRE </strong>is also a<strong> </strong>French G-1 winner.<strong> </strong>Freshman Sire Blame has two starters, no winners. His offspring will likely be best from mid-season onward and do well with longer distances. <p><b></b> <p><b>Haleys Rainbow</b> (Songandaprayer - Holy Spirit, by Ghostzapper) (F) $80K (RNA) BESMAR14; June 13 4F :46.40 (1/7); She’s the first foal out of her unraced dam. The second dam is BC Distaff heroine ADORATION. Sire Songandaprayer is noted for getting win-early babies (43% 2YO winners). <p><b></b> <p><b>So You Say</b> (Flatter - Hurricane Hannah, by Southern Halo) (F) $250K OBSAPR14; June 16 4F :47.60 (5/62) ) handily from gate. Dam won her debut and hit the board in 9 of 12 tries. Sire gets 38% 2YO winners, but only 9% FTS. The dam is a half to SW <b>SWEET SWEET, LOVELY LIL, LITTLE</b> <b>ROCKET</b> and SP <b>War Paint</b>. <h2></h2> <h2 align="center"><font color="#800000" size="4">WORKS</font></h2> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="3">BELMONT</font></b> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="3">June 15, 2014 | Four Furlongs</font></b> <p><b>Battle</b> (Quality Road - War Thief, by Lord At War (ARG)) (C) $185K (RNA) KEENOV12; :48.50 (12/51) Gate breeze. He’s a half to G-3 winner <strong>BOSS LAFITTE</strong> (by Dynaformer). Two of four half siblings won/placed at two. The dam is a MSW and a stakes winning 2 YO. She’s a full to SW <strong>STOP WATCH </strong>and <strong>WATCH, </strong>plus a half sister to G-3 winner <strong>PRIME MERIDIAN, </strong>SW<strong> REMIND, </strong>and SP <strong>Clock. </strong> <p><strong></strong> <p><b>Wonder</b> <b>Gal</b> (Tiz Wonderful - Passe, by Dixie Union) (F) $250K OBSMAR13; :48.06 (3/75) Gate breeze, dirt training track. She’s a first foal. Her dam is a half to MGSW <b>SOCIAL QUEEN</b>. The second through fifth dams own blacktype. <p> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="3">June 16, 2014 | Four Furlongs</font></b> <p><b>Irish Causeway</b> (Giant's Causeway - Lady Diplomat, by Silver Deputy) (C) $250K KEESEP13; :49.76 (14/32); He’s a half to SW <strong>CITY DWELLER </strong>(by Carson City), SW 2 YO <strong>GLACKEN’S GAL </strong>(by Smoke Glacken), and SW <strong>BANKER’S Buy</strong> (by Distorted Humor). Three of nine half siblings won/placed at two. The dam is a SP juvenile and a half to two stakes winners. Irish Causeway will likely prefer the turf. <p> <p><b>On Tenterhooks</b> (More Than Ready - Red Hot Buddha, by Buddha) (C) $200K KEESEP13; :48.90 (6/32); He’s a first foal. His dam is a half to G-3 placed juvenile <strong>Cue the Moon, </strong>SP<strong> Knockout Bertie </strong>and <strong>Red Hot Maria. </strong>This is the distaff line of the veteran stakes winning mares<strong> ALLAMERICAN BERTIE </strong>and <strong>HURRICANE BERTIE. </strong> <p><strong></strong> <p><strong></strong> <p><strong><font color="#800000" size="3">Greentree Training Center (Darley)</font></strong> <p><strong><font color="#800000" size="3">June 16, 2014 | Four Furlongs</font></strong> <p><b>Kick Off</b> (Bernardini - Game Face, by Menifee) (C ) :48.40 (3/5); His ¾ sister by A.P. Indy is unraced. Their dam is a MGSW sprinter who won the Princess Rooney (G-1), First Lady (G-2), Inside Information (G-2), etc. She owns the only blacktype in two generations. Kick Off will likely prefer distances up to 1 1/16 to 1 1/8 miles. <p> <p><b>Mine for Life</b> (Distorted Humor - Abby's Angel, by Touch Gold) (F) :48.40 (3/5); She’s the first foal produced by her stakes winning dam. Abby’s Angel is a half to Irish Oaks (Gr. 1) runner up <strong>Miss Jean Brodie</strong><strong>. </strong>Mine for Life’s damsire and second damsire A. P. Indy are Belmont Stake winners. The farther the better for this filly! <p> <p><b>Shot Clock</b> (Medaglia d'Oro - Flashing, by A.P. Indy) (C ) :48.00 (1/5); He is a full brother to Make It Snappy, who is entered on 6/18/14 in race 5 at Belmont. Their dam won the Test and Gazelle Stakes (G-1). The second dam was a juvie SW in France and third dam is Canadian Champion 3YO Filly <b>KAMAR</b>. Shot Clock has a pedigree fit for the Triple Crown races. <p> <p><b>Zennor</b> (Medaglia d'Oro - Zelanda (IRE), by Night Shift) (C ) :48.40 (3/5); He is a half to English juvenile stakes winner <b>GREY PEARL</b> (by Gone West) and to French Gr.3 winner <strong>TIME PRISONER </strong>(by Elusive Quality<strong>). </strong>Zennor’s dam is a half to French Gr.3 winner <b>EMILY</b> <b>BRONTE</b>, the dam of French Group winners <b>LOCKWOOD</b> and <b>EARNSHAW</b>, the latter is by Medaglia d'Oro. Zennor’s damsire spent his stud career in Ireland and Australia. He’s a full brother to the blue hen <b>FANFRELUCHE</b>, the dam of three Canadian Champions and to Canadian G-1 winner and sire <b>BARACHOIS</b>. Zennor has plenty of turf influences throughout his pedigree and will likely develop into a turf router. <p> <p><strong></strong> <p><strong><font color="#800000" size="3">SARATOGA</font></strong> <p><strong><font color="#800000" size="3">June 15, 2014 | Four Furlongs</font></strong> <p><b>Gap Year</b> (Bernardini - Dubai Escapade, by Awesome Again) (F) :49.13 (10/35); She’s the second foal out of a G-1 winning sprinter. Dubai Escapade is a half sister to G-1 winner Madcap Escapade, the dam of G-1 winner Mi Sueno. The second dam Sassy Pants is also a stakes winner. <p> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="3">June 16, 2014 | Four Furlongs</font></b> <p><b>Aljalela</b> (Unbridled's Song - Be My Prospect, by Forest Wildcat) (F) :49.23 (6.64) $450K OBSMAR14; She’s a full to MGSP <strong>Cat Burglar. </strong>The unraced dam is a half to SW <strong>RICH FIND, </strong>dam of MSW <strong>BROKEN SPELL </strong>and <strong>AWAY,</strong> dam of MGSW <strong>EIGHT BELLES, </strong>plus juvenile SP<strong> Fiddler's Find.</strong> <p><strong></strong> <p><strong></strong> <p><b>Can't Happen Here</b> (Desert Party - Forbidden Kiss, by Touch Gold) (C) $285K (RNA) KEESEP13; :49.44 (12/64); He’s a half to MSP <b>Indulgence</b> (by Macho Uno). Both half siblings to race in the U.S. won/placed at two. Freshman Sire Desert Party has three winners from four starters. Forbidden Kiss is a half to three stakes winners, one of whom, <b>SAY A NOVENA</b>, set a new track record at Monmouth in the 5 ½ furlong Colleen Stakes as a two year old. <p> <p><b>Competitive Edge</b> (Super Saver - Magdalena's Chase, by Cape Town) (C) $750K FTFMAR14; :48.00 (1/64); he’s a firstborn foal. The dam is SP and won her second start, but overall, there is little blacktype in this family. Freshman sire, Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver has 3 starters, no winners. His babies will likely start winning late July/August onwards. <p> <p><b>Sky Limit</b> (Sky Mesa - Special American, by Quiet American) (F) $95K FTKJUL13; :49.23 (6/64); She’s a half to MSW <strong>MONTANA NATIVE </strong>(by Yes Its True) and SP <strong>American Romance</strong> (by Successful Appeal). Three of five half sibs to race won/placed at two and Sky Mesa is noted as a sire of very precocious babies. Sky Limit should do well up to 1 1/16 miles. <p> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="3">June 16, 2014 | Four Furlongs, Turf</font></b> <p><b>Supa</b> (War Chant - Blended Beauty, by Fusaichi Pegasus) (C) :51.02 (3/4); One of Supa’s half siblings is a winner over the turf. His dam is a half to <b>SPLENDED</b> <b>BLENDED</b>, winner of the Hollywood Starlet (G-1) at two and Vanity (G1) at three, and MGSW <strong>RICHLY BLENDED. </strong>War Chant gets 20% juvie winners. <p> <p><strong></strong> <p><b>Tariff</b> (Pulpit - Toll, by Giant's Causeway) (C) :51.02 (3/4) gate breeze; He’s a first born foal. His dam is a half to SW Cherry and her full sister SP Shrill, both by Distorted Humor. Second dam YELL is a MGSW. Her half siblings include the SW sires <b>EASTERN ECHO</b> and <b>ROAR</b>. She’s also a half to the dam of GSW <b>CONGRATS</b> and SP <b>Flatter</b>, Second dam is MGSW <b>WILD APPLAUSE</b> and the third dam is blue hen <b>GLOWING TRIBUTE</b>, dam of Kentucky Derby winner <b>SEA HERO</b>, grand-dam of Champion European sprinter <b>MOZART</b>, etc. Tariff and Supa are likely stablemates in Bill Mott’s barn. <p> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="3">June 18, 2014 | Four Furlongs, Dirt Training Track</font></b> <p><b>Theophilia</b> (Flatter - Theola, by Arch) (F) :49.22 (2/12) gate breeze. She’s a first foal. The dam is a full sibling to SW <b>CHOOSE</b>. The second dam is a half to Juvie SW <b>CAT ATTACK</b>, dam of MSW turf sprinter <b>GREAT</b> <b>ATTACK</b>. Theophilia will likely prefer running two turns, but could prevail in longer sprints. <p> <p><b>Ginger Rush</b> (Speightstown - Victorina, by Delaware Township) (F) $90K KEESEP13; :49.44 (4/12) gate breeze. This filly has a very precocious sprinter’s pedigree. Her dam won both starts at two and is a MSW of over $700K. She’s a veteran of 30 starts and won/placed in 26 of them. The second dam is a half to MGSW <b>C.S. SILK</b> and to the dam of Juvie SW <b>DEN’S LEGACY</b>. Expect to see this filly hitting the early baby stakes races if she’s fast enough. <p> <p><b>Dubai Sky</b> (Candy Ride (ARG) - House of Danzing, by Chester House) (C ) :49.76 (5/12) gate breeze. This is a full brother to MGSW <strong>TWIRLING CANDY </strong>winner of the Malibu (G-1), Del Mar Derby (G-2) etc. He’s also a half to <strong>ETHNIC DANCE</strong> (by Tribal Rule) who won the Del Mar Derby. Juvie SW<strong> CHOCOLATE CANDY </strong>(by Candy Ride) is a member of this female family and the blue hen Won’t Tell You, dam of the great <b>AFFIRMED</b> is Dubai Sky’s fourth dam. <p> <p><b>Go Around</b> (Medaglia d'Oro - Mediation (IRE), by Caerleon) (C ) $300K (RNA) KEESEP13; :50.40 (10/12); He’s a half to MGSW <strong>GO BETWEEN </strong>(by Point Given), winner of the<strong> </strong>Pacific Classic (G-1), Virginia Derby (G-2), etc. and a half to juvenile Group 2 placed <b>Extreme Beauty</b> (by Rahy). Half of Go Around’s ten half siblings won/placed at two. <p> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="3">Five Furlongs, Dirt Training Track</font></b> <p><b>Harbouring</b> (Indian Charlie - Snug Harbour, by Boston Harbor) (F) 1:03.90 (5/6) gate breeze. This filly is a full sister to the MSW sprinter <strong>STAR HARBOUR </strong>and a half to juvenile SP<strong> Lemon Point </strong>(by Lemon Drop Kid). All three of her siblings won/placed at two and their dam is juvenile SP. This filly should be fairly precocious. <p> <p><strong></strong> <p><font size="3"><font color="#800000"><b>June 19, 2014 |</b> <b>Four Furlongs, Dirt Training Track</b></font></font> <p><b>High Noon Rider</b> (Distorted Humor - Modesty Blaise, by A.P. Indy) (C ) $400K KEESEP13; :50.05 (2/9); This colt has the pedigree of a Classic winner. He’s a half to French SW <strong>POUPEE FLASH </strong>(by Elusive Quality). All three half siblings raced in Europe. Their dam is a ¾ sister to Atto Mile (CAN G-1) winner <strong>GOOD JOURNEY</strong> (by Nureyev) and a half to MG1W and sire <strong>ALDEBARAN,</strong> two-time winner of the Met Mile. The second dam <strong>CHIMES OF FREEDOM </strong>(by Private Account) is a multiple ENG-Gr.1 winner and High Noon Rider’s third dam is the Irish G-1 winner and blue hen <b>AVIANCE</b>. High Noon Rider traces back to the amazing producer and blue hen <b>BEST IN SHOW</b>. Keep this colt on your watch list as he matures and goes two turns. <p> <p><b>Summer Chant</b> (Summer Bird - Melody Maiden, by Saint Ballado) (F) :50.60 (4/9) gate breeze. She’s a daughter of deceased Freshman Sire and Belmont Stakes winner Summer Bird. Her sire’s offspring are 0-3. Expect them to start maturing later in the year as most will want to go a mile or farther. Summer Chant is a half to SW <strong>MEDOLINA</strong> (by Aragorn) and SP <strong>Skating </strong>(by Awesome Again). Summer Chant’s dam is stakes placed and this filly’s fourth dam is the blue hen Cosmah, dam of Halo. Melody Maiden has an RF to Cosmah as Halo is the sire of Saint Ballado. Summer Chant has turf influences in her family and we may see her on the lawn. She’ll likely be best at longer sprints and two turns. <p> <h2></h2> <p><b></b> <p><b></b> <h2 align="center"><strong><font color="#800000" size="5">GLOSSARY</font></strong></h2> <p><strong>SW – Stakes Winner</strong> <p><strong>MSW – Multiple Stakes Winner</strong> <p><strong>GSW – Graded Stakes Winner (G1SW, G2SW, G3SW – Grade, 1, 2, 3 stakes winner)</strong> <p><strong>SP – Stakes Placed</strong> <p><strong>MSP – Multiple Stakes Placed</strong> <p><strong>GSP – Graded Stakes Placed</strong> <p><b>Blacktype</b> – A stakes race. A horse’s name is designated in bold print when they have won or placed in any stakes race. Names in bold capital letters designate a stakes winner, including Graded or Group races. Bold small lettered names specify that the horse has placed in a stakes race including Graded or Group races. Names with no bold print designate horses that have not won or placed in a stakes race and thus, they have no Blacktype. <p><b>Blue Hen</b> – A superior mare who has a widespread influence on the breed through her sons and daughters. Examples: La Troienne, Almahmoud, Somethingroyal. See <b>Rasmussen Factor</b> regarding inbreeding to these mares. <p><b>Broodmare Sire</b> – a/k/a <b>Damsire</b>. The sire of the dam.<b></b> <p><b>Classics – </b>In the US, for colts, Kentucky Derby-G1, Preakness Stakes [G1], Belmont Stakes [G1]; for fillies, Coaching Club of America Oaks [G1]. The classic distance in the US is one and one-quarter miles, (10 furlongs), the length of the Derby. In England, for colts, 2,000 Guineas [G1], Epsom Derby [G1], St. Leger Stakes [G1]; for fillies, 1,000 Guineas [G1], Epsom Oaks [G1]. The classic distance in England is one and one-half miles (12 furlongs), the length of their Derby. <p><b>Dam</b> – female parent of the horse (mother). <p><b>Damsire</b> – a/k/a <b>Broodmare sire</b>. The sire (father) of the dam. <p><b>Distaff Family</b> – a/k/a <b>Female Family</b> - The maternal line, starting with the dam, tracing back to the second dam, third dam, etc. <p><b>Full Brothers or Sisters – </b>Full brothers and sisters are by the same sire and out of the same dam. <p><b>Half Brothers or Sisters - </b>Half-brothers or sisters have the same dam but a different sire. <p><b>Inbreeding - </b>Mating of closely related individuals, for instance, <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/danehill">Danehill </a>is inbred to Natalma through her son, Northern Dancer, the grandsire of Danehill, and through Spring Adieu, the second dam of Danehill. Thus, Danehill is inbred through two half siblings to one dam. <p><b>Rasmussen Factor (RF) </b></p> <div id="scid:0767317B-992E-4b12-91E0-4F059A8CECA8:17e96ced-76d8-44a5-8840-c85fe366c19c" class="wlWriterEditableSmartContent" style="float: none; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px">Technorati Tags: <a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Kiddie+List+14" rel="tag">Kiddie List 14</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Two+Year+Olds" rel="tag">Two Year Olds</a></div> <p><b></b> – The "Rasmussen Factor" (or RF) is a term used to describe inbreeding to superior females (see <b>Blue Hen</b>) through different individuals in the first five generations. Leon Rasmussen and Rommy Faversham developed the breeding theory. The inbreeding must occur through the sire and the dam (on both sides of the pedigree) and the duplication of the inbred female must be within five generations. Examples of the RF Factor: <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/elusive+quality">Elusive Quality</a> – RF to Somethingroyal through her sons Secretariat and Sir Gaylord. <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/unbridled">Unbridled </a>– RF to Aspidistra through her son, Dr. Fager and daughter, Magic; Article by Leon Rasmussen regarding the <a href="http://www.werkhorse.com/pdf/RFSERIES.pdf">Rasmussen Factor</a>. <p><b>Sire</b> – male parent of the horse (father). A thoroughbred horse becomes a sire after one of his offspring is registered in the Jockey Club Registry. ThoroFan Handicapper's Cornerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03177519642532691985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7507011268295815218.post-76510548944024628392014-06-16T14:39:00.001-04:002014-06-16T14:39:44.666-04:00THE KIDDIE LIST JUNE 16, 2014<p><a href="http://lh3.ggpht.com/-Vc8g3XFT6Dk/U5857GaPQ9I/AAAAAAAABck/e_eRr0u_uJw/s1600-h/THE%252520%252520KIDDIE%252520%252520LIST%25255B2%25255D.jpg"><img title="THE KIDDIE LIST" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-left: 0px; display: block; margin-right: auto" border="0" alt="THE KIDDIE LIST" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-NX3-VE9xvak/U58577yxy5I/AAAAAAAABco/7XWG2zaGV7Y/THE%252520%252520KIDDIE%252520%252520LIST_thumb.jpg?imgmax=800" width="244" height="43"></a> </p> <p>The Kiddie List searches for the best and brightest of this next generation of two year olds. Dullahan, El Padrino, Take Charge Indy, Union Rags, Creative Cause, Drill, Dreaming of Julia, Beholder,<b> </b>Kauai Katie, Emollient, Fortify and countless other runners were featured on the Kiddie List before they hit the national radar. Many juveniles that were highlighted on the Kiddie List rewarded their backers with double digit wins. <p>The Kiddie List will cover the best workers and blue bloods breezing four furlongs and farther. I’ll cover the New York, Kentucky, California and Florida tracks, and occasionally Arlington, Fair Hill and Monmouth. If a particularly well bred baby from the database shows up at another track, I’ll include that one as well. Due to the enormous number of juveniles, some of these names may show up only once or twice. It’s highly suggested that you use a virtual stable, available through Equibase, DRF or Brisnet to follow the babies in whom you’re most interested. <h2></h2> <h2 align="center"><font color="#800000" size="4">SANTA ANITA</font></h2> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="3">Entered 6/19/14 Race 1</font></b> <p><b>Caval</b> (Blame - Sultana, by Storm Cat) (F) $150K KEESEP13; June 14 - 5F :59.20 (2/49) handily from gate. She’s a half to Group 3 winner <b>DERBAAS</b>, who was a SP juvenile. The dam is a full sister to French G-1 winner <strong>ALJABR</strong><strong> and the second dam SERRA </strong><strong>MADRE</strong><strong> is also a </strong>French G-1 winner.<strong> </strong>Freshman Sire Blame has two starters, no winners. His offspring will likely be best from mid-season onward and do well with longer distances. <p><b></b> <p><b>Haleys Rainbow</b> (Songandaprayer - Holy Spirit, by Ghostzapper) (F) $80K (RNA) BESMAR14; June 13 4F :46.40 (1/7); She’s the first foal out of her unraced dam. The second dam is BC Distaff heroine ADORATION. Sire Songandaprayer is noted for getting win-early babies (43% 2YO winners). <p><b></b> <p><b>So You Say</b> (Flatter - Hurricane Hannah, by Southern Halo) (F) $250K OBSAPR14; June 16 4F :47.60 (5/62) ) handily from gate. Dam won her debut and hit the board in 9 of 12 tries. Sire gets 38% 2YO winners, but only 9% FTS. The dam is a half to SW <b>SWEET SWEET, LOVELY LIL, LITTLE</b> <b>ROCKET</b> and SP <b>War Paint</b>. <p><b></b> <p><b></b> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="3">June 14, 2014 | 4 Furlongs</font></b> <p><b>C'Mon Sister</b> (Successful Appeal - Concinnous, by El Corredor) (F) :49.20 (30/52); first breeze after placing fourth in her debut. O’Hara trainee is a half to recent Vanity (G-1) heroine <strong>IOTAPA</strong><strong> and SW </strong><strong>SAINTLY JOAN</strong><strong>. </strong> <p><strong></strong> <p><b>Suva Harbor</b> ( Rockport Harbor - Queen Dido, by Thunder Gulch) (F) :48.60 (16/52); The dam is a half to MSW <b>MISS A</b> <b>BOMB</b>, SP <b>Shinnecock</b> and MSP <b>Cargo</b>, the dam of Preakness Stakes winner and sire <b>RED BULLET.</b> <p><strong></strong> <p><b></b> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="3">Five Furlongs</font></b> <p><b>Zinvor</b> (Tribal Rule - Shady Lady Dancer, by Woodman) (C ) $15K BESOCT13; :59.60 (5/39); He’s a full to SP <b>Leaving New</b> <b>York</b>. The dam is a full to SW LENA and a half to MSW <b>LAVENDER</b>, who is the second dam of Juvie SW <b>WELL DESERVED</b>. <p> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="3">June 15, 2012 | 4 Furlongs</font></b> <p><b>Luminance</b> ( Tale of the Cat - Siren Serenade, by Unbridled's Song) (F) $320K KEESEP13; :48.80 (31/63); Her dam is a ¾ sister to Remsen Stakes winner <strong>SAARLAND </strong><strong>and a half to BC Juvie Turf (G-1) winner</strong><strong> GEORGE VANCOUVER</strong><strong>. Second dam is MG1W </strong><b>VERSAILLES TREATY</b>. Luminance is trained by Bob Baffert. <p> <p><b></b> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="3">Five Furlongs</font></b> <p><b>Don't Blame Me</b> (Blame - Forestier, by Forestry) (F) $145K (RNA) KEESEP13; 1:00.00 (8/50); Only two of four half sibs raced and one is a winner. The SW dam is a half to G-3 winner <b>UNBRIDLED HOPE</b>, dam of SW <b>SUGAR SHOCK</b>, and to the dam of SW <b>BEARPATH</b>. Don’t Blame Me is trained by Kristen Mulhall. <p><b>Mahee</b> (Unbridled's Song - Elrose, by Deputy Minister) (F) $370K KEESEP13; 1:00.00 (8/50) handily from gate. She’s a half to G-3 winner <b>SUPER FREAKY</b> (by Smart Strike). Three of four half siblings to race won/placed at two. The dam is a half sister to Champion 3YO <b>SILVER CHARM.</b> Mahee Me is trained by Kristen Mulhall. <p><b>Roth</b> (Discreetly Mine - Tasha's Delight, by Afternoon Deelites) (C ) 1:01.00 (22/50); He’s a half to MGSW <strong>WILKINSON </strong><strong>(by Lemon Drop Kid). The Juvie SP dam dam is a full sister to Golden Rod (G-2) winner MISS PICKUMS. Freshman Sire </strong>Discreetly Mine has no winners from 2 starters. His babies should do well from mid-season onwards and should be fairly precocious. Roth is trained by Jeff Mullins. <p><b>Wake Up Nick</b> (Cindago - Storm Hearted, by Lion Hearted) (C) $35K BESMAR14; 1:00.60 (16/50); first work back for this 9 ¼ length MSW debut winner who zipped 4 ½ F in :51.22. Not much blacktype in the female family, but watch for this one in the baby stakes races at Del Mar. His sire is a superior Polysire with 23% winners and 50% ITM. Wake Up Nick is trained by Doug O’Neil. <p><b>Ultimate</b> <b>Holiday</b> (Harlan's Holiday - Molly Peaches, by Meadowlake) (F) $75K OBSMAR14; 1:00.80 (19/50); She’s a first foal. Her dam is a half to 2YO SW <b>SHEZACRAZYGIRL</b> and that one’s full sister, SP <b>Shezacrazylilsis</b>. Ultimate Holiday is trained by Richard Baltis. <p> <p><b></b> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="3">June 16, 2014 | 4 Furlongs</font></b> <p><b>Elementar</b> (More Than Ready - Val Marie, by Coronado's Quest) (F) $280K KEESEP13; She’s a half to MGSW <strong>GRAND ADVENTURE </strong><strong>(by Grand Slam) who won the Summer Stakes (G-3) as a 2YO. The dam is a half to</strong><strong> </strong><strong>GSW</strong><strong> SCOUTUS </strong><strong>and the</strong><strong> </strong><strong>SP second dam is a half to Champion</strong><strong> </strong><strong>mare</strong><strong> LAKEWAY. </strong>Elementar is trained by Richard Mandella.</p> <div id="scid:0767317B-992E-4b12-91E0-4F059A8CECA8:515fcfd5-9739-4f6e-aebb-765b67d3fd8c" class="wlWriterEditableSmartContent" style="float: none; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px">Technorati Tags: <a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Kiddie+List+14" rel="tag">Kiddie List 14</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Two+Year+Olds" rel="tag">Two Year Olds</a></div> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="3">Five Furlongs</font></b> <p><b>Lord Nelson</b> (Pulpit - African Jade, by Seeking the Gold) (C) $340K KEESEP13; :59.80 (7/50) handily from gate. He’s a first foal. His second dam is Argentinean Champion 3YO Filly <b>MISS LINDA</b>. Lord Nelson is trained by Bob Baffert. <p><b>Starlet</b> <b>O'Hara</b> (Discreetly Mine - My Chanel, by Gilded Time) (F) $100K KEESEP13; :59.80 (7/50) handily from gate. She’s a half to MGSP turf router <b>Trend</b> (by Sligo Bay). Only one of Starlet O'Hara’s half sibs to race have won. The dam is a half to MGSW <b>WANDERING BOY, EARLY WARNING</b> and GSP <b>VIVID SUNSET</b>. The second dam <b>VID KID</b> is a SW Juvenile. Starlet O'Hara is trained by Bob Baffert. ThoroFan Handicapper's Cornerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03177519642532691985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7507011268295815218.post-21283802893312316252014-06-14T13:43:00.001-04:002014-06-14T13:43:52.361-04:00THE KIDDIE LIST 6-14-14<p><a href="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-Z__DHuOhrWE/U5yJ1d1iGYI/AAAAAAAABcM/nM0mNVh6qxo/s1600-h/THE%252520%252520KIDDIE%252520%252520LIST%25255B2%25255D.jpg"><img title="THE KIDDIE LIST" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline" border="0" alt="THE KIDDIE LIST" src="http://lh6.ggpht.com/-5dPOqQ7mqOA/U5yJ181WZJI/AAAAAAAABcQ/rCzReUWN_ms/THE%252520%252520KIDDIE%252520%252520LIST_thumb.jpg?imgmax=800" width="244" height="43"></a> </p> <p>As I’ve done over the last three years, I’ll continue the Kiddie List as I seek out the best and brightest of this next generation. Dullahan, El Padrino, Take Charge Indy, Union Rags, Creative Cause, Drill, Dreaming of Julia, Beholder,<b> </b>Kauai Katie, Emollient, Fortify and countless other runners were featured on the Kiddie List before they hit the national radar. Many juveniles that were highlighted on the Kiddie List rewarded their backers with double digit wins.</p> <p>The Kiddie List will cover the best workers and blue bloods breezing four furlongs and farther. I’ll cover the New York, Kentucky, California and Florida tracks, and occasionally Arlington, Fair Hill and Monmouth. If a particularly well bred baby from the database shows up at another track, I’ll include that one as well. Due to the enormous number of juveniles, some of these names may show up only once or twice. It’s highly suggested that you use a virtual stable, available through Equibase, DRF or Brisnet to follow the babies in whom you’re most interested. <h2></h2> <h2 align="center"><font color="#800000" size="4">CHURCHILL DOWNS</font></h2> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="3">June 10, 2014 | 4 Furlongs</font></b> <p><b>Thirtysevenliveson</b> ( Giant's Causeway - Mining My Own, by Smart Strike) (C) $675K KEESEP13; :49.00 (9/47); He’s a ½ brother to Kentucky Derby winner <b>MINE THAT BIRD</b> and MG1W <b>DULLAHAN</b>. Owned by Zayat and trained by Dale Romans. <p><b>Jack Tripp</b> (Flatter - Vindicated Angel, by Vindication) (C ) $60K KEESEP13; :49.00 (9/47); Both ½ sibs won/placed as two year olds. Second Dam is a G-3 SW. Sire is only 9% with FTS. (First Time Starters). Likely workmate for Thirtysevenliveson. <p><b>Cool Comfort</b> (Big Brown - Singing Sensation, by Coronado's Quest) (F) $115K OBSAPR14; :50.40 (29/47); Previously worked 4F :48.20 (2/49) from the gate on 6/4 at CD and had a 4F :47.40 (3/26) at KEE on 5/5. Her ½ sibling placed as a 2 YO. Her dam is ½ to G-2 winners <b>RUBY’S RECEPTION</b> and <b>HERITAGE HALL</b>. Third dam MSW <b>COURT HOSTESS</b> is the grand-dam of PA Derby winner <b>HANDSOME MIKE</b>. Big Brown gets 10% FTS, but keep an eye on her, especially if she heads for the Poly or turf. <p> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="3">June 11, 2014 | 4 Furlongs</font></b> <p><b>Big Red Seven</b> (Hold Me Back - All Sevens, by A.P. Indy) (C) $11K KEESEP13; :48.80 (5/36) gate breeze; His Freshman Sire, a son of Giant’s Causeway has 4 starters, 2 winners. Second dam <b>SIX SEXY SISTERS</b> won 2 of 3 starts, including the Colleen Stakes. This is the distaff family of MGSW sire <b>BEAU GENIUS</b>. Likely workmate of Simply Confection. <p><b>Simply Confection</b> (Candy Ride (ARG) - Ballado's Halo, by Saint Ballado) (F) $20K KEESEP13; :48.80 (5/36) gate breeze; So far, none of her 5 half sibs to race own blacktype. Her dam is a SP full sister to Champion <b>ASHADO</b>, MGSW <b>SUNRIVER</b> and G-3 winner <b>SAINT STEPHEN</b>. Candy Ride gets 13% FTS. <p><b>Bold Conquest</b> (Curlin - One for Jim, by Distorted Humor) (C ) :50.40 (23/36) first gate breeze; His ½ sibling by Langfuhr placed in 2 of 3 starts as a 2YO. The dam is a SP half sister to Cigar Mile winner <b>JERSEY TOWN</b> and the second dam is MG1W <b>JERSEY GIRL</b>. Curlin gets 13% FTS, but this one will likely prefer two turns. <p><b>Pressing Luck</b> ( Lookin At Lucky - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) (C ) $300K KEESEP13; :50.20 (18/36); He’s a half to MGSP <strong>Normandy Invasion</strong> (by Tapit). Freshman sire Lookin At Lucky has 4 winners from 8 starters. <p><strong></strong> <p><strong></strong> <p><font size="3"><font color="#800000"><b>June 13, 2014 |</b> <b>4 Furlongs</b></font></font> <p><b>Holy Frazier</b> (Holy Bull - Sandstorm Cat, by Tale of the Cat) (C) :49.20 (11/41); half sib. Won one of 2 starts as a 2YO. There’s no notable blacktype in the first two generations, however the 3<sup>rd</sup> dam is a SP half sister to <b>SEATTLE SLEW</b>. <p><b>Lawn Ranger</b> (U S Ranger - Lalka, by Dynaformer) ) (C) :49.20 (11/41); He’s a ½ to Schuylerville Stakes winner <b>GEORGIE’S</b> <b>ANGEL. </b>Two of four half sibs to race won as two year olds. The dam is ½ to a SW and the second through fourth dams own blacktype. Lawn Ranger has a 3x3 RF (see glossary) to Andover Way, who is the second dam of <b>US Ranger</b> and she is the dam of <b>Dynaformer</b>. Expect to see this colt on the turf. <p><b>Redlace and Pearls</b> (Line of David - Maggie's Pearle, by Bright Launch) (F) $110K OBSAPR14; :48.40 (4/41); Two of three half sibs that raced at two were winners. The dam is a half to the dam of G-1 winner <b>MANDY’S GOLD</b>. So far, the offspring of Freshman Sire Line of David are 0-5. The few that I’ve seen have good size and I expect they’ll start to mature mid-season (July) onward. <p> <p><font size="3"><font color="#800000"><b>June 13, 2014 |</b> <b>5 Furlongs</b></font></font> <p><b>Amazing Party</b> (Desert Party - Amazing Storm, by Awesome Again) (F) 1:03.00 (15/20) gate breeze; She’s the first foal out of her dam. Amazing Storm was 3<sup>rd</sup> in her debut. Freshman Sire Desert Party has two winners from four starters, so this one could hit the board fairly early in her career. There’s no blacktype in the first two generations of the distaff line, but the second dam is a half- sister to Champion Sprinter <b>SQUIRTLE SQUIRT</b>. <p><b>Stroke Play</b> (Warrior's Reward - Candy Ma'am, by Lemon Drop Kid) (F) $7,500 (RNA) KEENOV12; 1:02.20 (11/20) gate breeze; One of two half sibs to race placed as a 2YO and the dam placed in her second start. The second and third dams own minor blacktype. Freshman Sire Warrior's Reward, a son of <b>MEDAGLIA D'ORO</b>, is off to a huge start at stud with three winners from three starters. <p><b>Tiz Town</b> (Tiznow - Bird Town, by Cape Town) (C ) 1:03.80 (17/20) gate breeze; Only four of seven half sibs of racing age made to the track. None own blacktype, and only two won. One of the two hit the board as a 2YO. The dam was Champion 3YO filly and half sister to Belmont Stakes winner and sire <b>BIRDSTONE</b>. The second dam <b>Dear Birdie</b> is a blue hen. Tiz Town is likely trained by Wayne Lukas. I don’t expect Tiz Town to be precocious and he should love two turns. Great pedigree, but so far, the dam hasn’t re-produced anywhere close to her form. <p> <p><font size="3"><font color="#800000"><b>June 14, 2014 |</b> <b>4 Furlongs</b></font></font> <p><b>Calmbeforethestorm</b> (Stormy Atlantic - Ruby Surprise, by Farma Way) (C ) $190K KEESEP13; :48.60 (9/89); She’s a half to MSW <b>FREE FLYING</b> <b>SOUL</b> (by Quiet American) and SP <b>Lady Stonewall</b> (by Harlan’s Holiday). Two half sibs raced at two and both placed. Dam Ruby Surprise is a MGSW and the second and third dams own blacktype. <p><b></b> <p><b>Skipalute</b> ( Midnight Lute - Skipstone, by Montbrook) (F) $130K FTKJUL13; :48.40 (4/89) gate breeze; neither of her two half sibs raced. The dam is a half to Demoiselle Stakes (G-2) winner <b>TIZHIT</b> (by Tiznow). The second dam is an unraced half to Contrive, the dam of Champion 2YO Filly <b>FOLKLORE</b> (by Tiznow). <p><b></b> <p><b>Super Saks</b> (Sky Mesa - Broadway Debut, by Unbridled's Song) (F) $250K FTSAUG13; <b>:47.00 (1/89);</b> She’s a half to juvie SP Mr Bluegrass Music (by Bluegrass Cat). Another half sib was unplaced in 4 starts at two. Broadway Debut is a half to MGSP Voodoo (by Petionville) and the second and third dams own blacktype. <p><b>Moonlight Charmer</b> (Malibu Moon - Words of War, by Lord At War (ARG)) ( ) $140K KEESEP13; :48.60 (9/89); He’s a half to MGSW Sire <b>E DUBAI</b> (by Mr. Prospector) and Del Mar Oaks (G-1) winner <b>NO MATTER WHAT</b> (by Nureyev). No Matter What is the dam of the multiple Group 1 winning filly <b>RAINBOW VIEW</b> (by Dynaformer), MGSWs <b>JUST AS WELL</b> (by A.P. Indy) and <b>WINTER VIEW</b> (by Thunder Gulch) and SW <b>UTLEY</b> (by Smart Strike). Words of War is a half to the dam of MGSW and sire <b>RAVEN’S PASS</b> and SW <b>GIGAWATT.</b> <h2></h2> <h2 align="center"><font color="#800000" size="4">FAIR HILL</font></h2> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="3">June 12, 2014 | 4 Furlongs</font></b> <p><b>Giant Crystal</b> (Giant's Causeway - Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector) (F) $450K KEENOV12; :50.40 (4/9); She’s a half to Wood Memorial winner <strong>GEMOLOGIST</strong><strong> (by Tiznow) who also won the </strong>Kentucky Jockey Club at two. Half sister CLEAR DESTINY (by Deputy Minister) is a MSW and half sibling <strong>Perfect Cut (by A.P. Indy) is SP. </strong>Four of seven half siblings won/placed as 2YO. <p><b>I'll Show Me</b> (Bernardini - Pacific Spell, by Langfuhr) (F) $1.3 Million KEESEP13; :51.40 (6/9); She’s a half to Champion 3YO <b>PROUD SPELL</b> (by Proud Citizen) and Proud Spell’s full sister SP <b>Proud Pearl</b>. The fillies in this distaff line are more accomplished than the colts. Only two of Pacific Spell’s five sons raced and only one is a winner. Pacific Spell is a half to a SW who also bore a SW and SP daughter. <p><b>Rainha Da Bateria</b> (Broken Vow - Amelia, by Dixieland Band) (F) $435K KEESEP12; :50.40 (4/9); She’s a half to MSW <strong>KINDERGARDEN KID </strong>(by Dynaformer), <strong>SW ASSATEAGUE</strong> (by Stormy Atlantic) and SP <strong>He's Had Enough </strong>(by Tapit). In this distaff family, the colts have proven to be the better runners. Out of three fillies, only one has hit the board and she’s a stakes winner. Four of five half siblings raced and hit the board as 2YO. The first two dams own blacktype and the second dam is a full sister to Champion 3YO Filly <strong>ALTHEA. </strong>Third dam is the blue hen,<strong> Courtly Dee.</strong> <p><strong></strong> <p><b>Tsunami of Love</b> (Bernardini - My Typhoon (IRE), by Giant's Causeway) (F) :51.40 (6/9); She has two half sibs, both colts, both raced one is a winner. Pedigrees don’t get any better than this. My Typhoon is a MGSW to Champion <strong>SEA THE STARS</strong> (by Cape Cross) and his ¾ brother SW <strong>BORN TO SEA</strong> (by Invincible Spirit), Italian Champ<strong> BLACK SAM BELLAMY</strong> (by Sadler’s Wells) and his full siblings, internationally acclaimed MG1SW sire <strong>GALILEO, </strong>MSW<strong> ALL TOO BEAUTIFUL,</strong> the sire Atticus<strong>,</strong> and half siblings MSW <strong>URBAN OCEAN</strong> (by Urban Sea), SW <strong>MELIKAH </strong>(by Lamntarra) and SP <strong>Cherry Hinton</strong> (by Green Desert). Second dam MGSW <strong>URBAN SEA </strong>is a blue hen. </p> <div id="scid:0767317B-992E-4b12-91E0-4F059A8CECA8:b0be9e07-4980-4ad2-bb91-5d23111faad4" class="wlWriterEditableSmartContent" style="float: none; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px">Technorati Tags: <a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Kiddie+List+14" rel="tag">Kiddie List 14</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Two+Year+Olds" rel="tag">Two Year Olds</a></div> ThoroFan Handicapper's Cornerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03177519642532691985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7507011268295815218.post-78761671222225300142014-06-11T16:00:00.001-04:002014-06-11T16:00:37.584-04:00THE KIDDIE LIST 6-11-14<p><img title="THE KIDDIE LIST" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; float: none; margin-left: auto; border-left: 0px; display: block; margin-right: auto" border="0" alt="THE KIDDIE LIST" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYXbQ6O_-O6RLh_-zcDp-x17FzGgRlw2i88wssHqMJKkBKe4cbOMSd6fSrkP82ZKMSJKDbTYX4RdH1lqT4VkltPQ2_j2a24QolhUSbVArAiwYPXmaRikQCE_JNBh9Dvvdbg8HxQcGw025e/?imgmax=800" width="359" height="87"> </p> <p>The most precocious of this year’s crop of two year olds made their arrival on the racing scene at Keeneland’s spring meet. As summer deepens, more tracks will be carding races for the babies. As I’ve done over the last three years, I’ll continue the Kiddie List as I seek out the best and brightest of this next generation. Dullahan, El Padrino, Take Charge Indy, Union Rags, Creative Cause, Drill, Dreaming of Julia, Beholder,<b> </b>Kauai Katie, Dry Summer, Renee's Titan, Power Broker, Honorable Dillon, Redwood Kitten, Emollient, Fortify and countless other runners were featured on the Kiddie List before they hit the national radar. Many juveniles that were highlighted on the Kiddie List rewarded their backers with double digit wins. <p>The Kiddie List will cover the best workers and blue bloods breezing four furlongs and farther. I’ll cover the New York, Kentucky, California and Florida tracks, and occasionally Arlington, Fair Hill and Monmouth. If a particularly well bred baby from the database shows up at another track, I’ll include that one as well. Due to the enormous number of juveniles, some of these names may show up only once or twice. It’s highly suggested that you use a virtual stable, available through Equibase, DRF or Brisnet to follow the babies in whom you’re most interested. <p>Due to the large number of breezing two year olds, I’ll cover New York separately. Look for works from other states in the next couple of days. <h2></h2> <h2 align="center"><font color="#800000" size="5">NEW YORK</font></h2> <p><strong><font color="#800000" size="4">BELMONT</font></strong> <p><strong><font color="#800000" size="3">June 7, 2014| Four furlongs:</font></strong> <p><b>Just too Perfect</b> (Pleasantly Perfect - Winter Tide, by Tale of the Cat) (F) :50.38 (27/34) $50K OBSMAR14. This is a full sister to juvenile MSP runner <strong>Pleasant Miss </strong><strong>(Landaluce S., Cinderella</strong><strong>, </strong>Oak Tree Juvenile Fillies Turf, etc.). Three of four half siblings won/placed as 2 YO, so keep an eye on this one. <p><b>King of New York</b> (Street Boss - Princess Consort, by Dixieland Band) (C) :48.99 (5/34) $65K KEESEP14. He’s a half to juvenile Eng. Gr. 3 winner <strong>WATERWAY RUN </strong><strong>(by Arch). Two of three half sibs. Are juve winners. Sire Street Boss gets over 25% first time winners.</strong> <p><b>Over Ridin Royalty</b> (Malibu Moon - Silver Reserve, by Silver Deputy) (C) :49.62 (13/34) $195K FTKJUL13. He’s a full to MSW sprinter <strong>RULE BY NIGHT</strong><strong>. Three of six siblings won/places as juveniles. The unraced dam is a half to Sapling (G-3) winner Boones Mill (by Carson City).</strong> <p><b>Skerkis</b> (Majesticperfection - Touch of Joy, by Crafty Prospector) (C) :49.62 (13/34) $48K FTKJUL13. He’s a half to Juvie SW <strong>SEA THE JOY </strong><strong>(by Stormy Atlantic). Two of five half sibs to race won/placed as juveniles. The dam is a half to the dam of MSW </strong><strong>ZEE ZEE</strong><strong>, who was also a juvie SW. </strong><b>Skerkis is entered 6/13/14 Race 1 at BEL.</b> <p><strong></strong> <p><b></b> <p><strong><font color="#800000">Four furlongs Dirt Training Track:</font></strong> <p><b>Daredevil</b> (More Than Ready - Chasethewildwind, by Forty Niner) (C) :48.83 (6/22) $260K KEESEP13. He’s a half to G-1 winner <strong>ALBERTUS MAXIMUS </strong><strong>(by Albert The Great) and to G-3 SP </strong><a href="https://www.brisnet.com/php/brisclub/AprOnline/report.php?foal_id=MjM0MjM2OA%3D%3D&mare_id=MjM0MjM2OA%3D%3D"><strong>Chasethegold</strong></a> (by Touch Gold), who bore a G-3 SP Juvie. This isn’t a particularly precocious family. <p><b>Fashion Alert</b> (Old Fashioned - Titan Queen, by Tiznow) (F) :49.44 (10/22) $125K KEESEP13. She’s a half to G-3 winner <strong>RENEE'S TITAN</strong><strong> (by Bernstein) who was also a SP Juvie. The dam is a half to two SW. </strong> <p><b>June 8, 2014 | Five furlongs<strong>:</strong></b> <p><b></b> <p><b>Nonna's Boy</b> (Distorted Humor - Nonna Mia, by Empire Maker) (C) :59.55 (Handily Gate) (1/12). He’s the first foal out of a Juvenile G-1 SP runner. His dam is a half to MGSW <b>CAIRO PRINCE</b> (by Pioneerof the Nile) and SP <b>Holdin Bullets</b> (by Ghostzapper). The second dam is also a SW<b>. Nonna’s Boy</b> <b>is entered 6/13/14 Race 1 at BEL.</b> <p><b></b> <p><b>Stanford</b> ( Malibu Moon - Rosy Humor, by Distorted Humor) (C) :59.55 (Handily Gate) (1/12). $550K BESMAR14. He’s the second of three foals to race. A half sibling was unplaced in one start. The dam was 0-3 in her career. The second dam is a ¾ sister to Champion <b>Johannesburg</b>. <b>Stanford</b> <b>is entered 6/13/14 Race 1 at BEL.</b> <p><strong></strong> <p><b></b> <p><b><font size="3"><font color="#800000">June 10, 2014 | <strong>Four furlongs Dirt Training Track:</strong></font></font></b> <p><b>Isabella Sings</b> (Eskendereya - Isobel Baillie (GB), by Lomitas (GB)) (F) :51.27 (6/7). She’s a half to Juvie turf SW <strong>ALAURA MICHELE </strong><strong>(by Arch).</strong><strong> </strong><strong>First crop sire </strong>Eskendereya was a juvie turf winner and also won the FOY and Wood Memorial. His babies should be moderately precocious and be proficient over all surfaces. <p><b>Reality</b> (Super Saver - Dianehill (IRE), by Danehill) (C) :49.44 (2/7) $150K OBSMAR14. He’s a half to UAE G-3 winner <strong>SPLASH POINT </strong><strong>(by Street Cry). The dam is MGSP turf sprinter/miler. The second dam is MGSW Very Subtle. Sire Super Saver won the KY Derby. This immediate family isn’t very precocious. </strong> <p><b></b> <p><b>Tasunke</b> (Indian Charlie - Dancing Flame, by Seeking the Gold) (F) :49.42 (1/7) $350K KEESEP13. One half sib to race was unplaced in 3 starts. The dam is a half to CAN. G-2 Juvie winner <b>BEAR’S KID</b> (by Lemon Drop Kid). The second dam is MGSW <b>TAP TO MUSIC</b>, a half to GSW sire <b>NORTHERN AFLEET</b>. Fourth dam Square Angle was a Canadian Champion Juvenile Filly. This distaff line produced Champions <b>KAMAR, FANTASTIC LIGHT, GOLDEN ATTRACTION, SWAIN</b>, plus MG1SW <b>GORGOUS, TURBULENT DECENT, SWIFT TEMPER, ALPHA, CAPE TOWN</b>, etc. <p><b></b> <p><b><font color="#800000" size="4">SARATOGA</font></b> <p><font size="3"><font color="#800000"><b>June 8, 2014 | Four Furlongs, </b><b>Dirt Training Track:</b></font></font> <p><b>Escondido</b> (Eskendereya - Kamaal, by Irgun) (C) :50.59 (17/34). $370K KEESEP13. He’s a half to MSW juvie <strong>CAVE'S VALLEY </strong><strong>(by Steven Got Even) and to SW </strong><strong>GETAWAY GUY </strong><strong>(by Yankee Gentleman). Out of 7 half sibs to race, only three are winners, but all three won/placed as 2 YO’s. The first three dams own blacktype.</strong> <p><strong></strong> <p><b>Mariano Intheninth</b> (Summer Bird - Affluenza, by Giant's Causeway) (C) :50.49 (14/34) 470K KEENOV12. One of two half sibs is a juvie winner. This distaff line is pure Claiborne breeding. The dam is a half to SW juvie <b>HAIT</b> and SP <b>Play With</b> <b>Fire</b>; a half sister bore two SW juveniles. This distaff line produced the top sires <b>PULPIT</b> and <b>JOHANNNISBURG</b>. Deceased freshman sire Summer Bird won the Belmont Stakes. I expect <strong></strong>Mariano Intheninth will relish two turns and could be proficient over dirt or turf. <p> <p><strong></strong> <p><font color="#800000"><strong>Five Furlongs,</strong><strong> </strong><b>Dirt Training Track:</b></font> <p><b>Angela Renee</b> (Bernardini - Pilfer, by Deputy Minister) (F) 1:01.24 (2/4). She’s a full sister to MG1W sire <strong>TO HONOR AND SERVE</strong><strong> and a half to SP </strong><strong>Elnaawi</strong><strong> (by Street Sense). Two of four half siblings to race are winners, both won/placed as juvies. </strong> <p><strong></strong> <p><font size="3"><font color="#800000"><b>June 9, 2014 | Four Furlongs, </b><b>Dirt Training Track:</b></font></font> <p><b>Ashland Park</b> (Street Cry (IRE) - Ashado, by Saint Ballado) (C) :50.12 (8/27). Like many Champion mares, Ashado hasn’t done a whole lot as a broodmare. Two of her three foals have raced and one is a winner. Both are very lightly raced full sibs to Ashland Park. <p><b>Bebop Raindrop</b> ( Scat Daddy - Weatheringthestorm, by Kyle's Our Man) (F) :49.96 (4/27). $140K FTNAUG13. Her dam is a half to Canadian Turf Champ <b>CLOUDY’S KNIGHT</b> and to SW <b>STORMY IMPACT</b>. That’s it for blacktype in two generations of the female family. Bebop Raindrop could enjoy the Turf and/or Poly. <p><b>Drafting</b> (Street Cry (IRE) - Indy Five Hundred, by A.P. Indy) (C) :51.02 (17/27). This Darley homebred is a half to Eng. Gr. 3 juvie placed runner <strong>Ecliptic </strong><strong>(by Kingmambo). Their dam is a G-1 winning ¾ sister to Italian Gr. 1 juvie winner </strong><strong>BIONDETTI</strong><strong> and to MGSW </strong><strong>DELTA</strong><strong> </strong><strong>PRINCESS</strong><strong> the dam of Champion </strong><strong>ROYAL DELTA</strong><strong>. Drafting’s 3 half sibs and their dam won/placed as juvies. </strong> <p><strong></strong> <p><b>Epsilon</b> (Desert Party - Munnaya, by Nijinsky II) (C) :51.23 (19/27) Likely stablemate to Drafing, <strong></strong>Epsilon is a half to MGSW ALPA (by Bernardini), French SW <a href="https://www.brisnet.com/php/brisclub/AprOnline/report.php?foal_id=MjI5ODYzNA%3D%3D&mare_id=MjI5ODYzNA%3D%3D"><strong>MYSTIC MELODY</strong></a> (by Seattle Slew) and to SP <b>Yaya</b> (by Rahy) and <b>Lavender Sky</b> (by Mt. Livermore). The dam and second dam are SW. <p><b>Kool Charli </b>(Tale of the Cat - Desafinado, by Pulpit) (F) :49.96 (4/27). One of three half sibs to race has won. The dam is a half to the MSW veteran <b>DEELIGHTFUL IRVING</b> and to G3 SW <b>IRVING’S BABY</b>. Tale of the Cat’s babies win 16% first time out and he’s a pretty good sire of win-early types. Kool Charli has been working steadily in the 4F :49 range. <p><b>Marking</b> (Bernardini - Seventh Street, by Street Cry (IRE)) (C) :50.12 (8/27). Stablemate to Drafting, Maring is the first of his dam’s foals to make it to the races. Seventh Street won the Apple Blossom, Go For Wand, and placed in the Ruffian and Ogden Phipps H., all G-1 events. She’s a half to Dubai Golden Shaheen (UAE Gr. 1) hero <strong>REYNALDOTHEWIZARD </strong><strong>and to MSP</strong><strong> </strong><a href="https://www.brisnet.com/php/brisclub/AprOnline/report.php?foal_id=Mjc1Njc3OQ%3D%3D&mare_id=Mjc1Njc3OQ%3D%3D"><strong>American Story</strong></a>. <p><b>Moreno Street</b> (Street Sense - Danceinthesunlight, by A.P. Indy) (C) :50.90 (13/27). He’s a half to Dwyer (G-2) winner <strong>MORENO</strong><strong> (by Ghostzapper). Their dam is an unraced daughter of Canadian Champion Three Year Old Filly </strong><strong>DANCETHRUTHEDAWN</strong><strong>, and her dam is the Champion and blue hen </strong><strong>DANCE SMARTLY</strong><strong>, winner of the BC Distaff and half sister to top sire </strong><strong>SMART STRIKE</strong><strong>. </strong>Moreno Street will likely not be precocious and prefer running two turns. <p><b>Wealth Creation</b> (Super Saver - Lunargal, by Yes It's True) (F) :49.98 (7/27) $250K OBSMAR13. Two of her four half siblings were juvie winners. This is a precocious distaff family. Their dam is a juvie stakes winning full sister to juvie SW <b>LUNARLADY</b>; a half sister to <strong>ASTROLOGY, </strong><strong>who won a G-3 at two and placed in the Preakness; and to </strong><strong>LUNARPAL</strong><strong> who won also a G-3 at age two. </strong> <p><strong></strong> <p><b></b> <p><font size="3"><font color="#800000"><strong>June 11, 2014</strong><strong> | </strong><b>Four Furlongs, </b><b>Dirt Training Track:</b></font></font> <p><b>Divine Praises</b> (Medaglia d'Oro - Grand Prayer, by Grand Slam) (F) :49.00 (1/19). She’s a full sister to G-3 SP <strong>Valid</strong> and a half sister to Ruffian Stakes (G-1) heroine <a href="https://www.brisnet.com/php/brisclub/AprOnline/report.php?foal_id=MjY4MzA1Nw%3D%3D&mare_id=MjY4MzA1Nw%3D%3D"><strong>MALIBU PRAYER</strong></a> (by Malibu Moon). Two of Divine Praises’s siblings have won. She has RF* inbreeding to the blue hen Prayer Bell, who is her fourth dam and Prayer Bell is the dam of Silent Screen, the second damsire of Medaglia d'Oro. Divine Praises full sister won one of two starts as a juvie and their dam placed in both starts at two. <p><b>Militsa</b> (Yes It's True - Mind Eraser, by Unbridled's Song) (F) :49.00 (1/19). It is quite likely that Militsa and <b>Divine Praises</b> are stablemates trained by Bill Mott. It’s rare to see Mott babies post bullet works, so pay attention to these two. Militsa’s dam is a half to the stakes winning miler KATY NOW (by Tiznow). The second and third dams own blacktype. Militsa’s dam placed in her debut and sire Yes It's True is noted for getting precocious offspring. <p><strong></strong> <p><b>Yippee</b> (Harlan's Holiday - Hip Hip, by Monarchos) (F) :50.55 (10/19). She’s a first foal for her Claiborne-bred dam, Hip Hip is a half sister to the stallions GSW CONGRATS and SP Flatter. This is also the distaff line of sire’s <b>EASTERN ECHO</b> and <b>ROAR</b>, and MGSW <b>YELL</b>. Yipee’s fourth dam is blue hen Glowing Tribute, dam of Kentucky Derby winner <b>SEA HERO</b>, grand-dam of Champion European sprinter <b>MOZART</b>, etc. </p> <div id="scid:0767317B-992E-4b12-91E0-4F059A8CECA8:87b7e070-4c49-4b06-b6e2-0871a9061d8e" class="wlWriterEditableSmartContent" style="float: none; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px">Technorati Tags: <a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Kiddie+List+14" rel="tag">Kiddie List 14</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/Two+Year+Olds" rel="tag">Two Year Olds</a></div> <h2><strong></strong></h2> <p><strong></strong> <h2 align="center"><font color="#800000" size="5">GLOSSARY:</font></h2> <p><strong>SW – Stakes Winner</strong> <p><strong>MSW – Multiple Stakes Winner</strong> <p><strong>GSW – Graded Stakes Winner (G1SW, G2SW, G3SW – Grade, 1, 2, 3 stakes winner)</strong> <p><strong>SP – Stakes Placed</strong> <p><strong>MSP – Multiple Stakes Placed</strong> <p><strong>GSP – Graded Stakes Placed</strong> <p><b>Blacktype</b> – A stakes race. A horse’s name is designated in bold print when they have won or placed in any stakes race. Names in bold capital letters designate a stakes winner, including Graded or Group races. Bold small lettered names specify that the horse has placed in a stakes race including Graded or Group races. Names with no bold print designate horses that have not won or placed in a stakes race and thus, they have no Blacktype. <p><b>Blue Hen</b> – A superior mare who has a widespread influence on the breed through her sons and daughters. Examples: La Troienne, Almahmoud, Somethingroyal. See <b>Rasmussen Factor</b> regarding inbreeding to these mares. <p><b>Broodmare Sire</b> – a/k/a <b>Damsire</b>. The sire of the dam.<b></b> <p><b>Classics – </b>In the US, for colts, Kentucky Derby-G1, Preakness Stakes [G1], Belmont Stakes [G1]; for fillies, Coaching Club of America Oaks [G1]. The classic distance in the US is one and one-quarter miles, (10 furlongs), the length of the Derby. In England, for colts, 2,000 Guineas [G1], Epsom Derby [G1], St. Leger Stakes [G1]; for fillies, 1,000 Guineas [G1], Epsom Oaks [G1]. The classic distance in England is one and one-half miles (12 furlongs), the length of their Derby. <p><b>Dam</b> – female parent of the horse (mother). <p><b>Damsire</b> – a/k/a <b>Broodmare sire</b>. The sire (father) of the dam. <p><b>Distaff Family</b> – a/k/a <b>Female Family</b> - The maternal line, starting with the dam, tracing back to the second dam, third dam, etc. <p><b>Full Brothers or Sisters – </b>Full brothers and sisters are by the same sire and out of the same dam. <p><b>Half Brothers or Sisters - </b>Half-brothers or sisters have the same dam but a different sire. <p><b>Inbreeding - </b>Mating of closely related individuals, for instance, <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/danehill">Danehill </a>is inbred to Natalma through her son, Northern Dancer, the grandsire of Danehill, and through Spring Adieu, the second dam of Danehill. Thus, Danehill is inbred through two half siblings to one dam. <p><b>Rasmussen Factor</b> – The "Rasmussen Factor" (or RF) is a term used to describe inbreeding to superior females (see <b>Blue Hen</b>) through different individuals in the first five generations. Leon Rasmussen and Rommy Faversham developed the breeding theory. The inbreeding must occur through the sire and the dam (on both sides of the pedigree) and the duplication of the inbred female must be within five generations. Examples of the RF Factor: <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/elusive+quality">Elusive Quality</a> – RF to Somethingroyal through her sons Secretariat and Sir Gaylord. <a href="http://www.pedigreequery.com/unbridled">Unbridled </a>– RF to Aspidistra through her son, Dr. Fager and daughter, Magic; Article by Leon Rasmussen regarding the <a href="http://www.werkhorse.com/pdf/RFSERIES.pdf">Rasmussen Factor</a>. <p><b>Sire</b> – male parent of the horse (father). A thoroughbred horse becomes a sire after one of his offspring is registered in the Jockey Club Registry. ThoroFan Handicapper's Cornerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03177519642532691985noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7507011268295815218.post-17491791481941638382014-03-27T21:56:00.001-04:002014-03-27T21:56:08.269-04:00Louisiana Derby 2014 – Handicapping and Selections<p><strong>Florida Derby handicapping & selections are at my <a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/pedigree_power/Kentucky_Derby_2014_Handicapping_the_Florida_Derby_123" target="_blank">Pedigree Power blog on Horse Racing Nation</a>.</strong></p> <p> <p><img title="startgate" style="border-top: 0px; border-right: 0px; border-bottom: 0px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; border-left: 0px; display: inline" border="0" alt="startgate" src="http://lh4.ggpht.com/-r31O0oGUyVg/UzTWtjLhO7I/AAAAAAAABbo/jkakFnt_5VU/startgate%25255B8%25255D.jpg?imgmax=800" width="240" align="left" height="160"> The last five Louisiana Derbies have been predicative indicators of Kentucky class. Colts who won or placed in the premiere 1 1/8 mile race at the Fairgrounds have placed in the Kentucky Derby in 2013 and 2011. In 2010, Drosselmeyer was third at the Fairgrounds and won the Belmont Stakes. <p>This year, a full field of ten colts will vie for the enough points to enter the starting gate at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. Four of the ten are graded stakes earners and one is a nose shy from a Grade 2 win. Todd Pletcher’s charges have won three of the last seven editions of the Louisiana Derby while Steve Assmussen and Larry Jones have entered the winners’ circle once. All three trainers are represented this year. <p>Stablemates Intense Holiday and King Cyrus have drawn the two inside positions in the <a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/race/2014_Louisiana_Derby">Louisiana Derby</a>. The Pletcher trainees have traveled very different roads to merge at the Fairgrounds. <b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Intense_Holiday">INTENSE HOLIDAY</a></b> (Harlan's Holiday - Intensify, by Unbridled's Song) got up in time to win the Risen Star by a nose after a very wide trip. His speed figures and second to last bullet work signal that he should continue improving. The rail post probably isn’t the best for him, but Mike Smith should be able to keep the 2-1 favorite out of trouble and the colt acts like he’ll handle the extra distance. <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/King_Cyrus">KING CYRUS</a></b> (Bellamy Road - Queen of Empire, by Empire Maker) has raced only four times, finishing on the board in three of them. The Louisiana Derby will be his second start off of a layoff. His sire won the Wood Memorial in impressive fashion and has produced two winners at 1 1/8 miles, including Toby’s Corner, who won the Wood in 2011. King Cyrus receives plenty of stamina from his damsire, Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker and second damsire, Super Derby hero Seeking the Gold. Additionally, his third dam Dispute won the Kentucky Oaks, Beldame, Gazelle and Spinster, so there’s some classy genes a few generations back. King Cyrus is taking a huge class and distance jump, but the extra ground should suit him. <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Louies_Flower">LOUIES FLOWER</a></b> (Flower Alley - Tembisa, by Johannesburg) was a big deal at Remington Park, but needed a guide dog to find the wire at Oaklawn, where he crossed the wire 26 lengths out of it in the Southwest Stakes. Do we draw a line through that performance or should Louie sail his ship back to Remington? <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Flat_Gone">FLAT GONE</a></b> (Flatter - Me Gotta Go, by Kayrawan) needed seven starts to win his maiden. Tossed into the Risen Star, Flat Gone didn’t lift a hoof and finished 15 lengths behind Intense Holiday. ‘Nuff said. <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Gold_Hawk">GOLD HAWK</a></b> (Empire Maker - Caressing, by Honour and Glory) has one of the best pedigrees in the group. The second son of Empire Maker in the field, Gold Hawk’s dam was a Champion Juvenile filly. Unfortunately, something’s going on with Gold Hawk. He’s either a head case or is having emotional/physical issues that aren’t being addressed. In his last two races, he hasn’t wanted to enter the gate and in his first start he dumped his jockey. Gold Hawk won his first two starts, but has underperformed in both stakes preps for the Louisiana Derby. I think a couch session with Emotional Conformation guru Kerry Thomas would help Gold Hawk sort out his issues. <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Vicars_In_Trouble">VICAR'S IN TROUBLE</a></b> (Into Mischief - Vibrant, by Vicar) has won two of three starts at Fairgrounds. In the Risen Star, he was four wide the entire way. He made a good move in the stretch, but flattened out to finish third, beaten by 5 ½ lengths. Vicar's in Trouble has a borderline pedigree for 1 1/8 miles. His sire’s only stakes winner at the distance is Into Mischief. Vicar’s damsire won the Florida Derby and his second damsire Tanks Prospect wore the Preakness flower. This is a talented colt who may have what it takes to improve. <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Commanding_Curve">COMMANDING CURVE</a></b> (Master Command - Mother, by Lion Hearted) never got into the swing of things in the Risen Star, which was his first start since last November. It was a tough spot for the ridgling, since his last race in 2013 was his maiden win. Maybe he can improve on his last performance, but I don’t see it happening. <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Rise_Up">RISE UP</a></b> (Rockport Harbor - Appenzell, by Johannesburg) outclassed competitors in the Delta Downs Jackpot by running them off of their feet. He tried the same tactics in the Risen Star, his first start off of the layoff. Rise Up was rank during the race and faded to seventh. He’s had three strong works since then and trainer Tom Amoss slaps the hood on Rise Up in an effort to relax the colt. I’m not sure Rise Up wants to go 1 1/8 miles. His sire has only one stakes winner at the distance and as a damsire Johannesburg, has no stakes winners past 1 1/16 miles. Rise Up’s dam and second dam were both sprinters. <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/In_Trouble">IN TROUBLE</a></b> (Tiz Wonderful - Ballpark Butterfly, by Grand Slam) is a lightly raced, speedy, yet talented colt. He finished only ½ length behind the dueling Samraat and Uncle Sigh in the Gotham on a track known for speed. I think he’ll find it totally different at the Fairgrounds. A young stallion, Tiz Wonderful has sired one winner at 1 1/8 miles and his daughter My Happy Face placed at the distance in the CCA Oaks. In Trouble’s pace setting running style indicates that he likely won’t last the trip, especially if he’s stuck on the outside with other speed horses. <p><b><a href="http://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Albano">ALBANO</a></b> (Istan - Pocho's Dream Girl, by Fortunate Prospect) is a half-brother to 2012 Louisiana Derby runner-up Mark Valeski. Albano has a miler-oriented pedigree. None of his sire’s offspring have won past 1 1/16 miles over the dirt, although they don’t appear to be limited on turf. Exhibiting the gameness as his half-brother, Albano has won or placed in every start while setting or pressing the lead. Those tactics might not work here, as the colt has drawn the far outside post and is practically guaranteed a wide trip unless he can sit behind the pace setters. Even then, he may not have the lungs to win at 1 1/8 miles. <p><u>Track bias:</u> Only two races have been held at 1 1/8 miles this year at the Fairgrounds. Pace pressers and mid-pack runners won both races from the outside. Favorites win 37% of the time at this class/distance and finish in the money 72%. There’s a 40% chance of rain early morning, so the track should be dry and fast by race time. <p><b>Intense Holiday</b> really looks like the horse to beat here. He owns the highest late pace speed figure and can likely settle behind all of the outside speed. <b>Albano</b> ran the race of his life in the Risen Star, showing a huge 19 point jump in his Bris speed figure. His last two works were very sharp. He’ll have to gun from the far outside to get a favorable position, which could cost him at the end. I think this talented youngster sticks around for a piece of it. <b>Vicar’s In</b> <b>Trouble</b> showed a new dimension in the Risen Star, breaking from post 13, he was able to pick off rivals before getting tired. I think he got not only a schooling, but a good workout and should be more fit this time around. Experience and losing wagers have taught me to be wary of the <b><i>other</i></b> Pletcher horse in stakes races. I doubt Intense Holiday just wanted a friend to tag along on his trip to New Orleans. I’m giving <b>King Cyrus</b> the nod here as my long-shot pick to gumbo up the works. <h2> </h2> <h2 align="center">SELECTIONS</h2> <p><b>#1 Intense Holiday - Win</b> <p><b>#6 Vicar’s In</b> <b>Trouble - Place</b> <p><b>#10 Albano - Show</b> <p><b>#2 King Cyrus <em>longshot pick</em></b></p> <div id="scid:0767317B-992E-4b12-91E0-4F059A8CECA8:78b70c03-1f5d-464d-b58c-457f73bf3f96" class="wlWriterEditableSmartContent" style="float: none; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; margin: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px">Technorati Tags: <a href="http://technorati.com/tags/2014+Louisiana+Derby" rel="tag">2014 Louisiana Derby</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/2014+Triple+Crown+Trail" rel="tag">2014 Triple Crown Trail</a>,<a href="http://technorati.com/tags/2014+Kentucky+Derby+Trail" rel="tag">2014 Kentucky Derby Trail</a></div> ThoroFan Handicapper's Cornerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03177519642532691985noreply@blogger.com1