Friday, July 23, 2010

Schuylerville Stakes (G-3)

clip_image002The Grade 3 Schuylerville for two year old fillies kicks off the summer racing festival on opening day at Saratoga on Friday, July 23. Two days later on July 25, the colts will burst on the scene in the Grade 2 Sanford.
This year’s edition of the Schuylerville Stakes features seven fillies – three of them by the freshmen sires Bandini, First Samurai, and Too Much Bling. The youngsters are untested at six furlongs and all except two of them have dominated their previous competition.

clip_image002[6]First Samurai’s daughter Le Mi Geaux (out of Message Red by Cryptoclearance) won her maiden in her second start at Churchill Downs. After contesting the pace between rivals, the race proved to be no contest as she cruised home by over seven lengths. The chestnut filly’s dam was a stakes winner. Le Mi Geaux owns a five furlong bullet breeze and represents the Rick Dutrow Barn, which has a 28% win rate with the maiden to stakes race angle.
Let's Get Fiscal (Bandini – Bouvet, by Touch Gold) was the first winner for her sire. Her dam is a half sister to stakes winner Grand Bank. With Touch Gold as her damsire, this promising filly should love the extra distance. After pressing the pace in her debut, Let's Get Fiscal galloped off to a 5 ½ length lead. She fired a bullet work and the Violette barn is victorious 18% of the time with maidens jumping to stakes.
clip_image002[8]Stopspendingmaria (Montbrook – cutoffs, by Notebook) has speed top and bottom in her pedigree. Her dam is a full sister to three stakes winners, two of them winning stakes at age two. She was third to Show Me The Bling in her debut, but came back to win her maiden by seven lengths stopping the clock in 1:03 3/5 for 5 ½ furlongs. She heads to the post for the Pletcher barn, which has 23% victories from the maiden to stakes race angle.
Spa Sunrise (Eddington – Beautiful Sunshine, by Gilded Time) won her debut by 1 ½ lengths, but was getting tired at the end of the state-bred maiden race. Her dam is a half sister to the venerable old warrior Bet on Sunshine. Spa Sunrise is coming back in two weeks, but you can be sure Wesley Ward has this one ready to go. His maidens win 29% of the time.

Don Lunas (Hennessy – Mi Luna Neuva, by El Prado) beat the boys in her debut. Making her five start over the turf, Don Lunas asserted herself by six lengths and stopped the clock in :58 1/5 for five furlongs. The Glenny Barn has only a 7% win rate with stakes horses, but an eye catching 40% rate with horses moving from turf to dirt. Don Lunas’ stakes placed dam is a half sister to two durable old warriors, the distance loving Transduction Gold and Kim Loves Bucky, both Grade 3 winners over turf.

Show Me The Bling (Too Much Bling – Angelic Amanda) was green in her debut, but still battled on the lead to win by ¾ a length. Her freshmen sire was a Grade 2 sprinter on the track. Show Me The Bling has a sprinter’s pedigree and a modest distaff family, but one of her dam’s siblings was a multiple winner at age two. The pretty gray filly shows a very live work pattern, but the Biancone barn wins only 12% with maidens going to stakes races.

Final Mesa (Sky Mesa – Final Style, by Smart Style) is the most experienced filly in the race with three starts under her girth. She’s undefeated, beating her competition by a combined 21 lengths and owns two stakes wins. The accomplished miss is a half sister to the stakes sprinter Uncle Cammie. Her first two dams are unaccomplished, however her third dam is The Bride, a full sister to Secretariat and her fourth dam is the blue henSomethingroyal. Final Mesa goes out for the dangerous Wesley Ward barn.

How the track is playing: Last year, there was a slight bias for early pace setters who won 36% of the sprint races. 33% wired the field. Pace pressers won 33% of the time. There is a 30% chance of rain and the track should be fast.
Everyone of these promising fillies has won on the pace, so it will be interesting to see who grabs the lead and if they can sustain it. Final Mesa will be the overwhelming favorite and there’s no reason to go against her. She’s won at three different tracks, two different surfaces and no one has come close to challenging her. The morning works are the key to knowing which filly will move forward off of their maiden win and which will regress. Ironically, the three daughters of the freshmen sires, Le Mi Geaux, Let's Get Fiscal and Show Me The Bling, come in with bullet works for their last breeze. Stopspendingmaria shows a live work pattern for the Pletcher barn. She draws the one post which can always be a concern with young horses, but she appears to be one if the fastest fillies in the race and can use her speed to get a good position. Don Lunas comes off the turf and her trainer wins a strong 40% races with this maneuver.
Final Mesa
Let's Get Fiscal
Don Lunas - longshot