Sunday, July 4, 2010

Hollywood Juvenile Championship G3)

Eight juvenile colts are prepared to face the starter in tomorrow’s Hollywood Juvenile Championship (G-3). Run since 1939, the race has been populated by a Triple Crown Champ (Affirmed) Derby winner (Tommy Lee) and Champions Althea, Serena’s Song, and Stevie Wonderboy.

clip_image002This year’s renewal includes Minutesandtouches (Rockport Harbor – Flexible Princess, by Honour and Glory), a son of this year’s Freshman Sire Rockport Harbor. The pretty gray Minutesandtouches closed within two lengths of the winner in his last race traveling five furlongs. He owns a bullet work at Golden Gate and should appreciate the extra furlong and removes the blinkers. His sire was undefeated in four starts at two, winning his debut at 5 ½ furlongs and also the Nashua (G-3) and Remsen (G-2). Minutesandtouches dam won both of her starts at two is stakes placed. This distaff family has produced General Assembly and several other notable winners.

clip_image002[5] J P's Gusto (Successful Appeal – Call her Magic, by Caller I.D.) may go to the post as the favorite. The David Hoffmans trainee dominated the Willard Proctor Memorial by 4 ½ lengths over the Cushion Track after successfully stalking the pace. The final time of 1:02.97 was a stakes record since the race was lengthened to 5 ½ furlongs in 2006. He’s a full brother to juvenile stakes placed Magic Appeal and a half brother to stakes placed Kid Majic. Additionally his dam is a stakes winner over dirt and turf and is a half sister to the dam of Champion Proud Spell. J P's Gusto has been working well since his last race and appears to be ready to put forth his best effort.
Edgewick Road (Swiss Yodeler – La Fresa, by Cozzene) was third behind J P's Gusto in the Willard Proctor Memorial. His dam was stakes placed at two and his full brother was in the money in both tries at two. Edgewick Road has steady works and with three starts under is girth is one of the more experienced colts in the field.
The other colt with three starts is River's Chapel (Chapel Royal – Summer Band, by Dixieland Band). After winning his maiden at Hollywood Park, he journeyed to Gold Gate two weeks later and ran third in the Lost In the Fog Stakes after pressing the leader. By last year’s leading Freshman Sire, River's Chapel shows two slow works since that race. His immediate distaff family is durable but modest. His second dam is a half sister to multiple graded stakes warrior Life’s Hope.
Leon Ayala (Crown the King – Kir Ti, by Romanov) has a pedigree that indicates he’d be happier on the turf. His obscure sire (Gilded Time – Granse Oaks, by Nureyev) raced nine times without a win, while his damsire (by Nureyev) was a Grade 2 winner at 1 ½ miles. His distaff family is very modest. Leon Ayala adds blinkers and the Garcia barn gets 22% winners with first time blinkers.
Tapin Tough (Tapit – Rachel’s Edition, by Ascot Knight) was a very distant fifth behind J P's Gusto after beating state-bred maidens by a bare head. His sire is fifth on the Third-Crop sire list. Tapin Tough’s dam was stakes placed in Canada as a juvenile. Tapin Tough worked a slow six furlongs for this race.
Marvin's Magic and Western Mood enter the Hollywood Juvenile Championship after winning their debuts in dissimilar fashion. Marvin's Magic (Aptitude – Marva Jean, by West By West) jumped to the lead from the one post and never looked back, winning a 4 ½ race in the mud at Emerald Downs. His dam was a multiple stakes winner over that track and graded stakes winner Mi Selecto was produced from this family. Marvin's Magic worked a sharp three furlongs for this race, but he’s taking a big step up in class. Western Mood (West Acre – True Mood, by Deputy Minister) was off slow, but roared through the lane to win his five furlong debut by 1 ¾ lengths. His sire, an unraced son of Forty Niner out of a Claiborne Farm bred mare is a ¾ brother to Grade 1 winner Preach (dam of major sire Pulpit) and Yarn, dam of British Two year old Champ, Minardi, and granddam of dual Two Year Old Champ Johannesburg. Western Mood shows two excellent works, including a last breeze bullet for the Hollendorfer barn, which has an impressive 27% win rate with last out maiden winners going into stakes races.

Race Analysis and Selections:
29% of the pace leaders have gone wire-to-wire in races at this distance for the meet. 75% have won while on or pressing the lead while late pace and stalkers grab 31%.
J P's Gusto is the only stakes winner in the race and showed improvement in his second start, add the six furlong bullet work two breezes back and you’re looking at a live horse. He’ll likely sit off the pace setters Marvin's Magic, River's Chapel and Leon Ayala. Minutesandtouches should enjoy getting extra real estate and his quick four furlong breeze shows he’ll be sharp. Western Mood also owns a quick four furlong move and an impressive late speed figure number. It’s tough to say if he’ll regress off of that strong debut race, but his strong works show promise. Late running Edgewick Road may also appreciate the added distance and may be rolling late from the back of the pack.
J P's Gusto
Western Mood
Edgewick Road - Longshot