Breeders' Cup Winning Ways

The Breeders' Cup contests bring together the best horses in the United States and top European counterparts. These races can be very lucrative for handicappers. Since 2000, more than 65% of the winners have paid double digits. Multi-race wagers and exotics have paid thousands of dollars.

In the last decade, the Breeders’ Cup has been held at Santa Anita three times, 2003, 2009 and 2010. The 2003 edition was contested over dirt while the 2009 and 2010 versions were held over synthetic surfaces.

Below we’ll examine which running styles, prep races and track surfaces yield the most Breeders’ Cup winners in the Filly & Mare Sprint, Turf Sprint, Dirt Mile, and Filly & Mare Turf. The Sprint, Turf, Distaff (Ladies Classic) and Classic are analyzed on the Iron Maidens Thoroughbreds website.

FILLY & MARE SPRINT

Prep Races: The Filly & Mare Sprint has been contested four times, twice over the Santa Anita Polytrack. The Thoroughbred Club of America (G-2) figured prominently as a prep race, with two mares completing the TCA and Filly & Mare Sprint double. One filly placed in the TCA before winning the Filly & Mare Sprint. One mare was victorious in the Ballerina and one placed in the Woodbine Mile before victories in the Breeders' Cup.

Running Style: No mare won the race from wire-to-wire. Three sat in fourth place or closer while one sat mid-pack before gaining their wins. One did her best work from the back of the pack.

Favorites: None of the favorites have won in the five editions of the Filly & Mare Sprint. Two finished second while the rest were off the board.

Europeans: Only one European took on the North American female sprinters. She finished off of the board.

TURF SPRINT

Prep Race: The Turf Sprint has been contested four times. The two times the race has been held over the downhill turf course at Santa Anita, not surprisingly, California-based horses won. Three races, the

Morvich Handicap, San Simeon Handicap (both contested at Santa Anita) and Woodford Stakes have been used as prep races. Two of the winners preped in the Morvich. Two of the Turf Sprint heroes finished off of the board in their respective preps.

Running Style: A pace setter and one run closer each won the Sprint when it was held over the Santa Anita downhill course. A pace presser and one run closer won at Churchill.

Favorites: Two favorites, California Flag and Regally Ready won, while one favorite placed third and another was off the board.

Europeans: Five Europeans have contested the Turf Sprint in the last four years. One finished second while the rest were off of the board.

DIRT MILE

Prep Race: The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile has been contested five times. Two winners raced previously in the Goodwood Stakes, while one each ran in the Woodward, Kentucky Cup Classic and Indiana Derby. Only two Dirt Mile heroes won their prep. Two finished third and one was fourth.

Running Style: No Dirt Mile winner has wired the field. Two made their runs from the back of the pack while one mid-pack runner and a pace presser won. When the Dirt Mile was contested at Santa Anita, one winner pressed the pace while the other raced in the back of the pack and made his run in the stretch.

Favorites: None of the favorites won and only one hit the board.

Europeans: Only one European horse has entered the Dirt Mile since its inception. He placed fourth.

FILLY & MARE TURF

Prep Races: The Filly and Mare Turf has been contested 13 times. Only one mare, world traveler Ouija Board won the race twice and placed once. In three attempts. In two of three runnings held at Santa Anita, European Fillies prevailed. Additionally, at Santa Anita in 2003, three of the four Europeans finished in the money, the other finished tenth. The Flower Bowl Invitational was used as a prep by four mares. Two won that prep while the other two finished off of the board. Two mares each used the WinStar Galaxy and the Arc de Triomphe as preps prior to their victories in the Filly & Mare Turf. Six of the 13 mares won their prep for the Breeders' Cup. One was second, three were third and four were unplaced.

Running Style: One mare in 13 editions of the Filly and Mare Turf has wired the field. Longshot Intercontinental denied the overwhelming favorite Ouija Board a second consecutive victory in the Breeders' Cup. Ouija Board would come back the following year and triumph.

The pace pressers and mid-pack running styles were used by the remaining 12 runners.

Favorites: Like other Breeders' Cup turf contests, the Filly and Mare Turf has been an attractive betting race for handicappers. Four of the favorites won, two each placed second and third, while the remaining five finished off of the board. Five winners had double digit payouts. The 2010 Champ Shared Account paid $46.00 to win, the highest in the race's history.

Europeans: 30 Europeans have entered the Filly and Mare Turf. Similar to the results of the other Breeders' Cup turf races, foreign horses have fared well. Of the 30, 13 have hit the board, with four each winning or placing, while five finished third.

Breeders' Cup Winning Ways

The Breeders' Cup contests bring together the best horses in the United States and top European counterparts. These races can be very lucrative for handicappers. Since 2000, more than 65% of the winners have paid double digits. Multi-race wagers and exotics have paid thousands of dollars.

In the last decade, the Breeders’ Cup has been held at Santa Anita three times, 2003, 2009 and 2010. The 2003 edition was contested over dirt while the 2009 and 2010 versions were held over synthetic surfaces.

Below we’ll examine which running styles, prep races and track surfaces yield the most Breeders’ Cup winners in the Juvenile Divisions. Throughout next week we'll cover the rest of the races.

JUVENILE SPRINT

The Juvenile Sprint was held for the first time last year at Churchill Downs.

Prep Race:  Secret Circle prepped in the Jack Goodman Stakes at Santa Anita.

 

Running Style:  Secret Circle speed dueled with Trinniberg through opening fractions of :20.96 and :44.55. Secret Circle was in command by the ½ mile pole and held on to win the six furlong race by a length in 1:10.52.

 

Favorites:  Secret Circle was the favorite.

 

Europeans:  Shumoos, the only European based horse in the field, finished second.

JUVENILE

Prep Race:  The historic Champagne has proved to be the most form-full prep race for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. In 2007, War Pass and Pyro, the first two finishers in the Champagne, duplicated their placings in the Champagne. Uncle Mo pulled off the Champagne/Juvenile double and last year, Union Rags missed pulling off the feat by the narrowest margin.

The Norfolk is also a good gauge. Four of the last six horses that hit the board in the Norfolk (renamed the Frontrunner this year) have also hit the board in the Juvenile. When the Breeders' Cup was held at Santa Anita in 2003, Action This Day won his maiden over the Santa Anita dirt and then shocked the Breeders' Cup field with a victory.

 

Running Style:  In the last six years, two horses, War Pass and Hansen lead wire – to -wire. Two pace pressers won, while one mid-pack runner and one closer were victorious. In 2003 at Santa Anita, Action This Day sat in last place throughout much of the race, made his move through the stretch to win by 1 ½ lengths.

 

Favorites:  In the last six years, favorites have won only twice, while the other four placed second.

Pedigree matters too. Sprint-oriented precocious youngsters don’t usually fare well in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile or Juvenile Fillies.

 

Europeans:   Three Europeans, Arazi, Wilko and Vale of York have won the Juvenile. The later won over a synthetic surface.

JUVENILE FILLIES

Prep Race:  In the last ten years, the Oak Leaf and Frizette Stakes have produced the most Juvenile Fillies winners.

The Matron Stakes gave us two Breeders' Cup winners, while the Summer Stakes and My Dear Girl each produced one winner. Only one filly in the last ten years didn't win her Breeders' Cup prep. In 2009, She Be Wild was second in the Alcibiades before winning over the Santa Anita Polytrack.

 

Running Style:  Four fillies pressed the pace, sitting either second – fourth before making their winning moves. Two fillies went wire to wire while one, Stardom Bound, made her run from the back of the pack. In 2003, Halfbridled sat on the outside in mid-pack before making her move in the stretch.

 

Favorites: Favorites won five of the last six editions of the Juvenile Fillies. 2009 post-time favorite Blind Luck finished third.

 

Europeans:  Five Europeans have raced in the Juvenile Fillies. None have hit the board and the best placing was last year's fifth place finisher, Questing.

JUVENILE TURF

Prep Race: The Juvenile Turf has been contested five times. Four of the last five winners had their final prep overseas. Two raced in the Grand Criterium, one won while the other was second. The lone US based Juvenile Turf hero won the Bourbon Stakes in his previous start. Two of the four winners placed second and third in their final prep.

 

Running Style:  Two Juvenile Turf champs raced mid-pack before unleashing their stretch drive. A closer and pace presser also won.

 

Favorites: One favorite was successful while two ran second and one was unplaced.

 

Europeans:   The Europeans have proved to be a strong factor in the Juvenile Turf. 14 runners were entered in the last four years. Of those, three won, two were second and one placed third. Eight finished off of the board.

JUVENILE FILLIES' TURF

Prep Race: The Juvenile Fillies' Turf has been contested four times. Two prep races stand out as key factors. The first two Fillies' Turf heroines, Maram and Tapitsfly, respectively won and placed in the Miss Grillo Stakes (G-3). The 2008 and 2009 Breeders' Cup events were held at Santa Anita.

The one mile Natalma (G-3) over the Woodbine green was instrumental in the victories of the next two Juvenile Fillies Turf winners. More Than Real placed second in the Natalma (G-3) in 2010 before succeeding in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Last year, Stephanie's Kitten was third in the Natalma. Stephanie's Kitten squeezed in a victory in the Alcibiades (G-1) over the Keeneland Polytrack before posting her win in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.

 

Running Style:  All four winners sat in fifth place or farther back before unleashing their stretch runs.

 

Favorites:  All four fillies paid double digits to win. In all but one instance, the favorite for the Juvenile Fillies Turf finished out of the money.

 

Europeans: Out of 12 European fillies to contest the four editions of the Juvenile Fillies' Turf, only one finished in the money.

 

Technorati Tags: 2012 Breeders Cup,2012 Juvenile Colts,2012 Juvenile Stakes Races,2013 Triple Crown

Pilgrim Stakes – Winner Goes to BC Juvie Turf

The Pilgrim Stakes (G-3) held at 1 1/16 miles over the Belmont turf, has been part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Win and You’re In contest since the inception of the Breeders’ Cup Turf races for Juveniles in 2008. The 2008 and 2009 Pilgrim winners didn’t contest the Breeders’ Cup race and both the 2010 and 2011 Pilgrim winners placed ninth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf.

This year's contest appears light, but contentious. Only one two of the eight colts entered, West Hills Giant and Special Skills, own blacktype.

WEST HILLS GIANT (Frost Giant - Outtawesthills, by Take Me Out) won his maiden at the Pilgrim distance of 1 1/16 miles over the turf. He came back to win the New York Breeders Futurity sprinting over dirt. The John Terranova trainee is a son of first crop sire Frost Giant, who is a graded stakes winner over dirt and turf. West Hills Giant owns the only blacktype in three generations of his female family.

SPECIAL SKILLS (Bernstein - Kentucky Whisper, by Southern Halo) fought hard through the stretch in the Nick Shuk Memorial Stakes at Delaware Park. He got his nose down on the wire, but was disqualified gor bearing out on the second place finisher. It was over four lengths back to the third place horse. Special Skills is a half to the multiple turf stakes winner Love to Tell, Virgina Oaks heroine Volcat and a stakes placed runner. His second dam is stakes placed and his third dam is two-time Canadian Champion Eternal Search.

From the folks who brought us Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom, CERRO (Mr. Greeley - Ballette (IRE), by Giant's Causeway) won his debut in Italy. He descends from a classy distaff line, although this particular branch hasn't produced much. Cerro is a half to Arlington-Washington Futurity runner-up Sacham Spirit. His dam won twice in two starts and is a half to Irish Derby (Gr. 1) runner-up Dr. Johnson. Cerro's second dam is a ¾ sister to the Champion English colt and good sire El Gran Senor and to the grand-dam of Breeders' Cup Mile hero Domedriver. Cerro's third dam is the blue hen Sex Appeal.

High expectations abound for the well-bred NOBLE TUNE (Unbridled's Song - Serena's Cat, by Storm Cat). Breaking from the inside post in his debut, Noble Tune hit the gate. Undeterred, he grabbed the lead in the stretch and poured it on to score by three lengths. His actions gained him the highest late pace Brisnet speed figure in the Pilgrim field. Noble Tune's female family is loaded with classy stakes winners. His dam is a stakes winning turf sprinter. She's a half to the Irish multiple Group 3 winner Vocalized. Noble Tune's second dam Serena's Tune is a multiple stakes winning ¾ sister to the sire Harlington. She's also a half sister to multiple Group 1 heroine Sophisticat, and multiple graded stakes winner and sires Grand Reward and Schramsburg. Noble Tune's third dam is the Champion mare Serena's Song.

His stablemate SAINT VIGEUR (Smart Strike - Sweet Way, by Giant's Causeway) closed in the stretch of his debut to finish second after going three wide around the turn. Like Noble Tune, Saint Vigeur has a classy pedigree. His dam is a half sister to Champion Juvenile Sweet Catomine and her full sister, Breeders' Cup Distaff heroine Life is Sweet.

The oddly named NOTACATBUTALLAMA (Harlan's Holiday - Self Rising, by Hansel) trounced state-bred maidens in his second start, then was a one-paced fourth, beaten three lengths in the With Anticipation Stakes (G-3). There is little blacktype in the first two generations of his female family. His dam is a half to the stakes winning sprinter Lost Without You, who was also third in the PG Johnson Stakes.

READ THE PROPOSAL (Read the Footnotes - Sweet and Sassy, by Lear Fan) splashed his way to an 8 ½ length win in the Saratoga slop against state-bred maidens. Although his sire was a multiple graded stakes winner over dirt, Read the Proposal owns plenty of turf attributes. His sire's broodmare sire Al Naser was a Champion Miler in Europe. Read the Proposal 's damsire Lear Fan was a multiple graded stakes winner in Europe. His second damsire is the great Champion Nureyev. Read the Proposal's second dam is a three-time stakes placed runner over the lawn.

QUINZIEME MONARQUE (Rock Hard Ten - Quintela (GB), by Giant's Causeway) needed three starts to win his maiden and got the job done by 4 ¾ lengths when he stretched out to two turns. He's bred to go long over the turf. There is no notable blacktype in the first two generations of Quinzieme Monarque's female family, although the line carries plenty of European turf winners.

Bernie the Jet and James Jingle are Main Track Only entrants.

Selections

The turf course will likely be soft to good. Only CERRO has experience on a course that isn't firm. READ THE PROPOSAL and SPECIAL SKILLS are the speed of the race. The last colt to win the Pilgrim Stakes on the lead was The Leopard in 2007. Three of the last five winners won from the back of the pack. Chad Brown has the horsepower to pull off a Pilgrim exacta with NOBLE TUNE and SAINT VIGEUR. QUINZIEME MONARQUE worked a bullet after winning his maiden and he should be sharp. NOTACATBUTALLAMA enters for the Pletcher barn. Pletcher won the Pilgrim twice in the last five years.

#7 NOBLE TUNE

#2 CERRO

#3 NOTACATBUTALLAMA

#1 SAINT VIGEUR – longshot pick

Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity–Anyone’s Race

Frizette Stakes pedigrees & selections at the main IMT Website.

 

Only three colts have pulled off the Dixiana Breeders' Futurity/Breeders’ Cup Juvenile double, and none have managed this feat since 1997. In the last eleven years, four horses that have won or placed in the Futurity have also finished second or third in the breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Street Sense was third in the 2006 Futurity due to his dislike of Polytrack, but he went on to earn a win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Two Year Old Championship honors.

Typical for the Dixiana Breeders' Futurity (G-1), this year’s edition of the race has a full field of 12 colts entered as well as two also-eligibles. The race is a wide-open affair. Let's take a look at some contenders that may have an impact on the race.

The luke-warm morning line favorite at 4-1 is TIZRACER (Tiznow - G City Gal, by Elusive Quality). The Todd Pletcher trainee won his second start by 10 ½ lengths when stretching out to a mile over the Belmont dirt. His dam is a multiple G-3 winner and his second dam is also a stakes winner.

Breaking from the inside, JOHA (Johar -Mujado, by Mujadil) is by a top polysire. He won the Colin Stakes over the Woodbine Poly, then just missed taking the With Anticipation (G-2) by a head after making all of the pace. His dam is a stakes winner.

POSITIVELY (Distorted Humor - Macoumba, by Mr. Prospector) was given time off after a strong run in the Bashford Manor. As a half brother to the popular sire Malibu Moon, Positively owns one of the best pedigrees in the field. He’s bred to go two turns. Positively’s dam was a Group 1 winner in France and his second dam was the highly respected French multiple Group winner Maximova.

BALANCE THE BOOKS (Lemon Drop Kid- Kreisleriana, by Seeking the Gold) possesses the highest late pace Brisnet speed figure in the field. He put in a gutsy effort in the With Anticipation Stakes, flying six wide on the turn to get up for the victory by a head in the 1 1/16 mile turf contest. His second dam Kooyonga was a Champion Miler in Ireland.

DYNAMIC SKY (Sky Mesa - Murani, by Distorted Humor) won the 6 ½ furlong Simco Stakes at Woodbine in his last start. His dam is a turf stakes winner and his second dam Grand Splash was also a stakes winner. Dynamic Sky has an excellent polypedigree and a triple digit late pace speed figure.

HE'S HAD ENOUGH (Tapit - Amelia, by Dixieland Band) was last to break but made up 9 ½ lengths in his debut to score by ½ a length over the Del Mar Polytrack in his debut. Jumping into stakes company, the pretty gray colt found himself 12 lengths off of the pace in the swiftly run Oak Tree Juvenile Turf Stakes. He again made a nice run, only to run out of real estate, finishing sixth, 2 ½ lengths behind the winner. He's Had Enough has a spectacular female family. He's a half brother to the Grade 1 turf placed Kindergarten Kid. Their dam won a turf stakes at Calder. The second dam Aquilegia is a multiple graded stakes winner. She's a full sister to the Champion Thee Year Old Filly Althea. That one's daughters gave us the Grade 1 winning sire Arch, Frizette heroine Ballato and Juddmonte Spinster winner Acoma. The multiple Group 1 winner and sire Green Desert is out of another half sister. He's Had Enough's third dam Courtly Dee is a blue hen. The last horse to ship in from California and score a victory in the Breeders' Futurity was Great Hunter in 2006.

PATAKY KID (Rockport Harbor - Prom Princess, by Gold Case) won the Arlington Washington Futurity (G-3) in his last start. His speed figures have improved in every start. Patakay Kid is the first stakes winner produced by his unraced dam. The second dam is a stakes winner and multiple stakes placed. This is the female family of Champion Silverbulletday, Grade 1 heroines Forest Secrets and Cindy's Hero, the multiple Grade 1 turf router Forty Niner's Son and Belmont Stakes champ Arts and Letters. Pataky Kid will attempt to emulate Wicked Style, who captured the AW Futurity/Breeders' Futurity double in 2007.

JAVA'S WAR (War Pass - Java, by Rainbow Quest) has pointed for the Breeders' Futurity since his victory in the Sunday Silence at Louisiana Downs. He's a son of the Champion Two Year Old of 2007. Sadly, War Pass sired only one crop before his death. Java's War is a half brother to the stakes placed Coffee Bar. Their dam is a full sister to the Champion Turf Mare Fiji. Java War's speed figures have improved in every start.

SELECTIONS

Since 2006, the Dixiana Breeders' Futurity has been contested over Polytrack, three pacesetter/pressers have won. Two mid-pack runners have been successful and only one deep closer has scored.

#1 JOHA

#12 DYNAMIC SKY

#11 BALANCE THE BOOKS

#13 HE'S HAD ENOUGH – longshot pick

 

Technorati Tags: 2013 triple Crown Trail,2012 Breeders' Cup Juvenile,2012 Two Year Old Colts,Keeneland

Full Field of Fillies in Alcibiades Stakes

Champagne Stakes Bubbles with Talent at ThoroFan's Handicapper's Corner

by guest handicapper, Polytrack expert Steve Thygersen

Numbers after names are “polytrack score” derived from number of winners/itm finishers by sire's offspring.

#1 PURE INDY (56) – she won in her debut at Del Mar on Poly at 5 ½ furlongs and was brought back too soon at Fairplex where she didn’t run much. Dollase is a pretty good judge of horse flesh (especially freshmen), he is really high on her and felt that her performance at Fairplex was his fault, not the horse. She had one work at Hollywood before shipping and turned in a nice 1:00 flat drill. She has the Poly breeding and validated that with her debut win. Would prefer somewhere other than the rail but she is capable and shouldn’t have an issue with the distance but this is a three furlong stretchout. Solid.

#2 KITTEN’S DUMPLING (33) – comes into this off of two turf efforts, a win and a close up 4^th in the GR-2 Natalma. Has not run on Poly, has not worked on Poly and the Kitten’s Joys are not world beaters on the surface. Connections are good for 33% at Keeneland and she is one of two in the field to win at the distance but the breeding makes you pause. I don’t think she can get past her genes but could hit the board.

#3 ROSE TO GOLD (24) – a Calder shipper coming in off of TWO 13 length wins with the immortal Jose Rios in tow… Very poor Poly sire and the dam don’t help. Been there, done that, got the t-shirt with these Calder types. Looks like the rocket ship will crash back to Earth. No way, Jose.

#4 ALMOST AN ANGEL (83) – has the breeding and her debut was here back in the Spring so there are some positives. She broke her maiden in a turf sprint at Belmont and didn’t do a lot in her run at Saratoga but she did have some significant trouble there. Comes in off of a snappy 1:12/3 work at Aqueduct and the trainer and team stats are all above 20%. Could be a surprise at big odds. Longshot possibility.

#5 FULLY LIVING (71) – a daughter of Unbridled’s Song, the surface should be a plus and she has been running against the best two year old fillies in the east in So Many Ways, Kauai Katie and Dreaming of Julia. Has been working like a champ all Summer. Don’t think she was wild about the good track last out but she still managed to hold second. Probably a cut below these but the new surface may give her a better chance. Minor award is really her ceiling.

#6 BROKEN SPELL (53) – pretty obvious that dirt wasn’t her thing and she performed well in three straight 8 ½ furlong turf races, progressing steadily from a 67 to a 78. She has the most experience in the field and shows no signs of regression. Live.

#7 GOLD EDGE (72) – she has Poly breeding in spades through Eddington and Pioneering, and she has already shown that going 2/2 at Arlington on the main track, including the GR-3 Arlington Washington Lassie last out. Her speed figures are nothing to write home about but she is 3/3 and manages to get the job done. Think the additional distance is a plus and I would ignore the Beyers and look at the performance. Contender.

#8 LA SONG (71) – another double Poly, from Unbridled’s Song and Forest Camp, she is 3-1-1-1 on the surface and was narrowly defeated by Gold Edge in her last. She is the probable pacesetter here and they are going to have to come and get her. Solid work on this track on the 30^th and you can expect an improvement here. Sanchez and Catalano are 31% and this one looks to be fit and improving. Just another live filly.

#9 SPRING IN THE AIR (0*) – there are only three runs for her sire on Poly so far so not enough to make a call, but her grandsire is Silver Deputy (55) so there is probably a fair amount of potential here. She ran twice on Poly at Woodbine and finished 2^nd in her debut and then won by 10 in her next in a straight maiden race. They tried her on turf in the GR-2 Natalma and I think she was the best looking horse late in that race. Lots to like.

#10 TARA FROM THE CAPE (60) – the third double Poly in the field through Leroidesanimaux and Saint Ballado, she debuted on Poly and won by four lengths and followed that up with a win at Delaware on the turf and a 3^rd in the PG Johnson at Saratoga on the turf. She has progressed steadily since her debut and she has pretty standard Casse works. Think her second start on Poly could be worth the price of admission. Sure doesn’t hurt that Dominguez landed here. She also has some speed which should keep her away from trouble, a real plus with babies. I sound like a broken record but she is live as well.

#11 SKYFALL (55) – another double Poly, this one through More Than Ready and Lasting Approval, she has yet to race on the surface but did work last Saturday at Keeneland. Think she improves here but that probably won’t be enough to catch these. Pass.

#12 SPEEDINTHRUTHECITY (76) – a daughter of City Zip who had a very nice run on Poly at Del Mar finishing second to Executiveprivilege in the GR-3 Sorrento and then missed by a head on turf at a mile in the slowly run Juvenile Filly Turf to Renee’s Queen. I think the chances of her winning here are not high, but the chances of her hitting the board are.

#13 MAGICAL MOON (51) – Malibu Moon is a decent Poly sire, but the damsire, Lord at War, is a very good Poly sire (133) and this one torched the track in her first work here (:46/2). She ran a 1:02 flat in her last at Saratoga so she is no joke. Stall and Napravnik do well at Keeneland and this one could be a total beast on the surface. The one issue is the post; the three outside posts were a combined 2/28 on main track routes, but she does have tactical speed and Napravnik will have to use a dose of that to clear the field on the way out. The farthest she has ever been is 5.5F so that is a question mark but she was flyin’ in her last and the pedigree says more longer, more better. My pick.

#14 DANCINGINTHECIRCLE (ND) – nothing on Divine Park as a Poly sire but she was moving pretty good late in the GR-3 Arlington Washington Lassie, missing by a neck to Gold Edge and La Song after getting molested at the break. Like the other Arlington invaders her speed figures are light and she will have to navigate her way through the field but if you want a mortgage payer, she is probably worth a look.

SELECTIONS

#13 MAGICAL MOON
#10 TARA FROM THE CAPE
#7 GOLD EDGE

Longshot: There are an awful lot of live entries here and some are going to be forgotten at the windows. The one that will probably be ignored is the predicted pacesetter LA SONG who should improve enough to carry them way farther than most expect and being up front with these juvenile delinquents is a distinct advantage.

Do I feel confident in this race? No chance, they are very evenly matched; there are four double Polys and 10 with superior Poly pedigrees. I am seeing this more and more as the years go on, not that I think the trainers get it yet about Poly horses, I think it is just a natural selection kind of thing. You will have to use the board as your guide and make some projections on expected performance improvements. The one run that sticks in my head was the 1:02 that Magical Moon ran and her breeding says she will take to Poly like a duck to water. She also has some serious works and won by ten last out despite a pretty tangled break. If she gets out in good order, look out.

Technorati Tags: 2012 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies,Keeneland,Polytrack Sires,2013 Kentucky Oaks,2012 Two year old fillies