Friday, March 8, 2013

San Felipe: Flashback vs. Goldencents


Tampa Bay Derby Analysis & Selections here.

Since 2000 the San Felipe Stakes (G-2) has produced two Kentucky Derby winners, a Belmont Stakes winner and two colts who have placed in the Derby and Belmont.

This year Flashback and Goldencents headline a weak San Felipe Stakes (G-2). The 1 1/16 mile contest attracted eight colts and it is worth 50 Derby points to the winner.


FlashbackOne of two entries by trainer Bob Baffert, FLASHBACK (Tapit - Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greeley) flashed his heels to his rivals in the Robert B. Lewis (G-2) in his last start. The pretty gray colt has fired two bullet works and owns the second highest late-pace figure in the field. Read his pedigree analysis.


CarvingFlashback's stablemate CARVING (Any Given Saturday - In Seconds, by Giant's Causeway) gets a switch to jockey Bejarano, shortens up in distance and gets back to the dirt. Despite the changes, the son of Any Given Saturday appears to be a cut below graded stakes competition. Carving's dam did her best work over the turf and his sire has produced some turf stakes winners. Perhaps a switch to the lawn would better suit him.


GoldencentsSham Stakes hero GOLDENCENTS proved that he wasn't a one dimensional speed ball when he sat a length behind the front runner in the Sham. The son of first crop sire Into Mischief has no difficulty stretching his speed around two turns. The O'Neil trainee couldn't be working any better. He's fired seven consecutive bullet works since December. Read his pedigree analysis.


Hear the GhostIn his second start, HEAR THE GHOST (Ghostzapper - Rehear, by Coronado's Quest) made up four lengths in the stretch of the San Pedro Stakes to finish second, beaten only 1 ½ lengths. By a Horse of the Year out of a daughter of a Travers Stakes winner, Hear the Ghost will appreciate the extra real estate. He's a half-brother to Spinaway (G-1) heroine Mani Bhavan (by Storm Boot) and stakes placed Datt Echo (by Stormy Atlantic). Hear the Ghost gets a jockey switch from JJ Hernandez to Cory Nakatani. He and trainer Jerry Hollendorfer are 0-5 together.


Tiz a MinisterTIZ A MINISTER (Ministers Wild Cat - Tiz a Mistress, by Cee's Tizzy) has been competing at the state-bred level for most of his life. He has finished in the money in three open company races, but takes a big step up here. Trained by Paul Aguirre, the colt most recently won the one mile California Breeders Champion Stakes over Omega Star. Tiz a Minister should handle the extra distance of the San Felipe, but may not want to go much farther.


Omega StarOMEGA STAR (Candy Ride (ARG) - Pride of Pegasus, by Fusaichi Pegasus) lead briefly in the stretch of the California Breeders Champion Stakes, but he couldn't hold off the challenge of the more experienced Tiz a Minster. The John Shirreffs trainee is the first foal produced by his dam. His second dam Alpride was a highweight filly in Italy and was victorious in the Yellow Ribbon Invitational and Beverly Hills Handicap, both Grade 1 events over the lawn. Omega Star has been working well and could show improvement in his third start off of a layoff.


Salutos AmigosSALUTOS AMIGOS (Salute the Sarge - Sarasota (ARG), by Luhuk) is a last time out maiden winner. He dueled the whole way to prevail by 1 ¾ lengths, getting 6F in a sharp 1:08.56. Salutos Amigos is bred for speed. His sire never won a stakes past 6 ½ furlongs and his dam was an Argentinian Group 1 sprinter.


In his debut, KOCHEES (Lion Heart - Costume Girl, by Maria's Mon) was a longshot maiden winner over the downhill turf course. Next time out, the Michael Pender trainee went four wide early but held his place, although he was beaten 6 ½ lengths by Southwest Stakes winner Super Ninety Nine. Kochees owns a ton of classic stamina. His sire was second in the Kentucky Derby, damsire Maria's Mon produced two Kentucky Derby winners and his second dam is Classic/Solid Chef-de-race Nijinsky. Kochees dam is stakes placed and his third dam was a Champion Juvenile Filly in France. Kochees adds blinkers and has worked very well for his stakes debut.


Track bias: Early/pace pressing speed accounts for 66% of the wins at Santa Anita in 1 1/16 mile races.

Salutos Amigos owns :21 early speed. Both Flashback and Goldencents are able to sit off of the pace. It's hard to separate the two colts, however, Flashback owns higher late pace figures and has the benefit of a more recent race. If one of the colts decides to speed things up and the pace gets too hot, Tiz A Minister, Hear the Ghost or Kochees could score.




#6 TIZ A MINISTER – longshot pick