Friday, May 20, 2011

A Watch List Horse in the Black Eyed Susan

A short but contentious field will vie for the honor of winning the Black Eyed Susan. None of the fillies have tried the 1 1/8 mile distance, but most should handle it. Rain is in the forecast and the track may be muddy.

Pimlico | Race 10 | Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (Grade 2) | 1 1/8 Miles | Fillies | 3 Y. O.| Purse: $250,000

Royal Delta Photo Coglianese#1 ROYAL DELTA - will love the distance. She was featured on our December Watch List. Royal Delta worked well at Payson all winter and it looks like her trainer Bill Mott is tightening the screws in her latest breezes, getting a bullet in her second to last work. Royal Delta is lightly raced and should improve. Not thrilled with the one post for her; she's still inexperienced and could break inward. She has a superior mud pedigree.

HotSummer#2 HOT SUMMER - Should appreciate distance and she could control the early pace.  Other than Wyomia, there isn't much speed in here. She could wire the field if left alone on the lead. Good mud pedigree.

CoaxLibertyPhotoCoglianese#3 COAX LIBERTY - She's been right there in most of her races. Successful Appeal has a number of winners at 9F. As a damsire, Housebuster has only one winner at 9F - G-3 winner Goldsville. His sire? Successful Appeal. More of a concern is stretching out to 9F after a steady diet of sprints. Strong mud pedigree.

WyomiaMichaelburns#4 WYOMIA - The class of the field. Her sire doesn't have any winners at 1 1/8 miles, but with Kingmambo on her distaff side, there's hope that she'll get the distance. She was impressive at two and had an excuse in her last. IF they leave her alone on the lead with soft fractions, or if she tracks in second, the race is hers. Average mud pedigree. Her sire gets 20% winners in mud, but Kingmambo's are average at 14%.

#5  BUSTER'S READY - borderline pedigree for the distance. Her sire has three stakes winners at 9F, but damsire Hounor and Glory was a sprinter/miler. As a broodmare sire he has one winner at 9F. The second damsire is Quiet American which could lend some stamina and the dam is a half sister to HOY Saint Liam. Butster's Ready has won over the off going. Of concern is her good/bad race cycle.

#6 LOVE THEWAY YOUARE - Distance and mud should be no problem. She's coming in with two straight wins and improving speed figures. She's bred to be improving about now and I think she's a logical longshot. Don't underestimate her trainer.


How the track is playing: 51% of the winners either set or press the pace, with 20% going gate to wire.

The Black Eyed Susan appears to have little speed outside of Hot Summer and Wyomia. Royal Delta could track these two, but might be stuck on the inside. Buster’s Ready is the only horse in the field with experience over the off going, but her win-loss-win cycle and borderline pedigree make her questionable.




#6 LOVE THEWAY YOU ARE – longshot