Future Turf Stars at Belmont Park

(May 9, 2015)  Saturday’s tenth race at Belmont is for maidens traveling a mile over the lawn. This is a large, contentious field filled with promising youngsters. I expect that we’ll be seeing at least three or four of them headlining stakes in the future. Let’s review the pedigrees.

ASBAAD (Street Cry) is the second foal out of Lear's Princess.  Lear's Princess won the Gazelle over Rags to Riches and finished 2nd in the CCA Oaks and Alabama.  She also won the Tweedside Stakes at 1 1/16 m. on the lawn.    Asbaad has a good turf pedigree.  Street Cry gets  12% turf winners (that's a Brisnet stat and I think it's wrong, probably closer to 16% or more).  Damsire Lear Fan is a French G-1 winner. 

Asbaad’s stablemate ARGHAD (Distorted Humor) (AE) Scratched. is a half brother to multiple turf stakes winner Victory Lap and to multiple graded stakes winning sprinter Zanjero, plus his full sister, the stakes placed Acacia.

BUBBA'S D'ORO (Medaglia d'Oro) is Arghad’s older half brother. Trainer Bruce Levine is 0-7 with first timers over the lawn.

TIZ AFLEET (Tiz Wonderful) is the first foal out of his dam, Afleet Frio. She’s a half sister to the multiple stakes winning veteran Beau’s Town. Now Beau’s Town was noted as a dirt horse, but he did win his sole foray on the lawn, plus two of the dam’s other half siblings won or placed on turf. This is an experiment for Tiz Afleet. His sire gets 10% winners over grass, and the Mott barn is 16% with first time turf runners. Note that Tiz Afleet worked a second to last bullet over the training track.

LONE TRADER (More Than Ready) is the first foal out of Carriage Trade, whose full brother Art Museum won a turf sprint stakes in Ireland. She’s also a half sister to Fountain of Youth hero Lil’s Lad. Lone Trader’s speed figures have improved in every start and he switches back to turf. Trainer Michael Hushion has a fantastic 31% win rate with a horse making its third start off of a layoff.

FIRE AWAY (War Front) is a Phipps family bred half brother to Belmont Derby Invitational (G-1) hero Mr. Speaker. Their dam Salute is a graded stakes placed ¾ sister to Miner’s Mark and Our Emblem, plus a half to My Flag, etc. etc. Fire Away’s second dam is the Champion and blue hen Personal Ensign. Yes…THAT family! If he lives up to his pedigree, Fire Away is a sire in the making. Fire Away didn’t show much as a two year old, so he got some time off to grow up. He has a string of fast works from the conservative McGaughey barn and gets first time Lasix.

INFINITE MIDNIGHT (Giant’s Causeway) is a half to 2011 Santa Anita Derby winner Midnight Interlude and his full brother, Oceanside Stakes winner Midnight Crooner. Their dam is Gr.1 placed in New Zealand. Top grass trainer Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz, Jr. team up for a 39% win rate.

SHINOBI (Lord Shanakill) has breeding we don’t see every day. His sire is a Gr. 2 winning turf sprinter by Speightstown and his damsire Black Sam Bellamy is a full brother to Galileo. Shinobi is the first foal out of his German-bred dam. He has line breeding (4 generations and back) to the blue hen Special. She’s the dam of Nureyev (4x5 in this pedigree) and she’s also the grand-dam of Sadlers Wells (sire of Black Sam Bellamy). There’s 5Sx5Dx6D (5Sire x 5 Dam x 5 Dam) inbreeding to Special in Shinobi’s pedigree. You can never have too much of a good thing. Shinobi and his stablemate Infinate Transfer appear to be workmates. High percentage trainer Chad Brown and jockey Javier Castellano combine for an outstanding 41% win rate.

VEYA (Giant’s Causeway) is out of one of the last daughters of the great Seattle Slew. Veya’s second damsire is Northern Dancer It’s rare to find these names so close up in a pedigree and it’s a shame that Veya is a gelding. Althugh looking at his race record of 0-13, perhaps it’s for the best. Veya is a half to Irish 2000 Guineas winner Bachelor Duke, plus a German SW and a French SP runner. Veya’s third through fifth dams (Lisadell, Thong, Rough Shod) are all blue hens. Veya gets blinkers back on. The Ribaudo barn is 0-3 with this angle and has a 5% win rate with turf horses. Veya doesn’t seem to care for racing. Maybe he’d make a good steeplechaser or eventer.

BRITANNIA'S MOAT (English Channel) is a half to the stakes winning sprinter Freeway Ticket and a two stakes placed runners. There’s some minor blacktype in the first couple of generations and this is the distaff line of Champion Sprinter Xtra Heat. Britannia’s Moat was beaten only a length in his debut as a two year old. His works are on the average/slow side, but Donk and Franco team for a 27% win rate.

SENOR CASANOVA (Medaglia d'Oro) is the first foal out of the stakes winning veteran Model, who is multiple G-1 placed (Spinster, Santa Maria H., Santa Margarita Inv.). Senor Casanova’s second dam Snowfire placed in the 1000 Guineas. Senor Casanova has been working spectacularly for Clement.

ROCK EAGLE (Indian Charlie) has very little blacktype in his immediate female family. His dam placed in two stakes races over the lawn (one at Belmont) and his second dam is also stakes placed. Going back a generation is where we find all of the stakes winners, including QE II winner Bit of Whimsy, multiple graded placed Sky Blazer and a host of other turf stakes winners. Rock Eagle went seven wide in a turf sprint at Gulstream and missed by only ½ a length in a blanket finish. Tagg/Maragh are 0-9 together.

TIZ TIME TO SHAKE (Tiz Wonderful) has turf attributes in his distaff line. None of his half siblings own blacktype, but a couple have won or placed on the lawn. His dam is a stakes winning turf miler and his second dam Shake the Yoke was a multiple group winner in England. The Shivmangal barn has poor stats and jockey Eric Cancel is 0-27 on the turf.

STEEL SKY (Even the Score) (AE) SCRATCHED.

Selections

In a large field of youngsters, many of whom are making their debut, experience matters.

ROCK EAGLE (4-1), BRITANNIA'S MOAT (8-1), LONE TRADER (6-1) and TIZ AFLEET (8-1) all have experience and with the right trip, any one of them could win. SENOR CASANOVA (10-1) has some of the best works in the field. Don’t ignore that second to last bullet breeze. He’ll be live. FIRE AWAY (12-1) didn’t run a step in two starts as a two year old. Note the sharp 3F moves to put some speed into this colt. I’m inclined to give him another chance. Leading trainer Chad Brown’s duo of INFINITE MIDNIGHT (5-1) and SHINOBI (9-2) will be heavy favorites. Both have the class, and the conditioning, to win first time out.

This is a tough race to handicap. I suggest box exotics.

#5 INFINITE MIDNIGHT (5-1)

#6 SHINOBI (9-2)

#9 BRITANNIA'S MOAT (8-1)

#10 SENOR CASANOVA (10-1)

#4 FIRE AWAY (12-1)

The Kiddie List – May 6, 2015

The most precocious of this year’s crop of two year olds made their arrival on the racing scene at Keeneland’s spring meet this month. Three races are carded for two year old in April.  As summer deepens, more tracks will be carding races for the babies.  As I’ve done over the last four years, I’ll continue the Kiddie List as I seek out the best and brightest of this next generation.  Condo Commando, Take Charge Brandi, Eskenformoney, Carpe Diem, Mr. Z, Frosted, Dullahan, Take Charge Indy, Union Rags, Creative Cause, Drill, Dreaming of Julia, Beholder, and countless other runners were featured on the Kiddie List before they hit the national radar. Many juveniles that were highlighted on the Kiddie List have rewarded their backers with double digit wins.

The Kiddie List covers the fastest workers and blue bloods breezing four furlongs and farther.  I’ll cover the New York, Kentucky, California and Florida tracks, and occasionally Arlington, Fair Hill and Monmouth.    If a particularly well bred baby from the database shows up at another track, I’ll include that one as well. Due to the enormous number of juveniles, some of these names may show up only once or twice.  It’s highly suggested that you use a virtual stable, available through Equibase, DRF or Brisnet to follow the babies in whom you’re most interested.

Saratoga opened the doors for training on April 20. 

SARATOGA:

The first couple of two year olds to set foot on the dirt training track are a couple of precocious youngsters.

MAY 5 | 3F | TRAINING TRACK

TARPON (Discreet Cat - I Know Better, by Unbridled's Song) (C ) 3F :37.08 (2/8)  (KEESEP14  $110K) Possibly trained by Todd Pletcher, this colt breezed twice previously at Palm Meadows.  His half brother by Sky Mesa needed six starts to find the right level, but did hit the board in his third start. Discreet Cat gets 11% FTS.  Tarpon’s dam failed to win in 4 starts, but hit the board twice.  She’s a half to MSP miler Elusive Schemes (Elusive Quality).  Tarpon’s third dam STORM BEAUTY won the Miss Preakness and his fourth dam is the blue hen Stick to Beauty, dam of Champion Sprinter GOLD BEAUTY (dam of Champion and sire DAYJUR).  Filly Triple Crown heroine SKY BEAUTY, Cigar Mile winner and sire TALE OF EKATI, G1 winners POINT OF ENTRY, and PINE ISLAND are just some of the accomplished runners descended from Stick to Beauty. Tarpon’s pedigree is miler speed over stamina. He won’t have a problem getting two turns and may prefer longer sprints.

 

TONASAH (Malibu Moon - Quanah County, by Valid Expectations) (F) 3F :37.08 (2/8)  (KEESEP14  $250K) likely Tarpon’s stablemate, her previous breeze at Palm Meadows matches his.  Tonasah is a half to the G-3 SW sprinter QUANTUM MISS (Smoke Glacken) and SP Kelwynne (Yes Its True).  Quantum Miss won the Blue Mountain Stakes for juvenile fillies and Kelwynne placed in the race. All five of Tonasah’s half siblings were precocious, winning or placing at two. Their dam won her debut and placed in three stakes races in California, including the Moccasin Stakes at Hollywood Park. Malibu Moon gets an average 14% two year old winners and an excellent 36% FTS.  Tonasah may be distance challenged beyond a mile to 1 1/16 miles, but she could have an excellent chance of winning or hitting the board in her debut. Keep an eye on her.

 

MAY 6 | 3F | TRAINING TRACK

LADY DEVIL (High Cotton - Aztec Sally, by Medaglia d'Oro) (F) 3F :37.60 (2/13) (OBSMAR13 $260K) She’s a half to SP juvenile Aztec Key (Circular Quay), and had a 3-1-1-1 race record, all at age two.   Lady Devil’s fourth dam is the blue hen COLD HEARTED, dam of Belmont Stakes hero CAVEAT. Other notable names descended from this mare is leading California sire BENCHMARK, multiple G1 winner TRANQUILITY LAKE and her offspring, AFTER MARKET, COURAGOUS CAT and JALIL, plus the MSW veteran GIMMIE CREDIT. Other than Aztec Key, this particular family branch hasn’t produced any blacktype for three generations.  Lady Devil has a miler over stamina pedigree, with 3x3 inbreeding to A.P. Indy (who is the damsire of both High Cotton and Aztec Sally).  

 

SPLIT THE UPRIGHTS (Cape Blanco (IRE) - Saratoga Fling, by Pulpit) (C) 3F :38.17 (7/13) (FTKJUL14 $110K) is a son of Arlington Million hero and Freshman Sire Cape Blanco. He’s the first foal out of his dam, an allowance class dirt sprinter.  Saratoga Fling was unplaced in two turf attempts. She’s a half sister to the French SW turf miler CHERIEARCH (Arch).  Split the Uprights’ second dam CHERISH DESTINY is a SW dirt sprinter. This is the distaff line of MG1 heroine CHAMPAGNE D’ORO and Belmont Stakes winner RULER ON ICE. Split the Uprights is by a turf router out of a dirt sprinter.  His pedigree suggests that she may prefer going a mile. Anybody’s guess as to which surface.

 

STRATEGIC ELEGANCE (Courageous Cat - Powerful Elegance, by Smart Strike) (C) 3F :38.17 (7/13) is a son of multiple G1 winning turf miler and Freshman Sire Courageous Cat, who is a  full brother to G1 turf winner and sire AFTER MARKET). Strategic Elegance is the first foal out of his unraced dam. Powerful Elegance is a half to Santa Anita Oaks (G-1) heroine SILENT SIGHS (Bertrando), her full sister G-2 winner PROPOSED and this year’s San Felipe Stakes runner-up Prospect Park (Tapit).  Strategic Elegance has the pedigree to do well over various surfaces and distance as a two year old shouldn’t be an issue. Courageous Cat’s offspring should be mid-season (July forward) types who could do well over various surfaces.

 

DEEPLY UNDERVALUED (Kitten's Joy - Dream About, by Cherokee Run) (C) 3F :39.00 (10/13) (KEESEP14 $200K)  he’s a half brother to the stakes turf veteran SLEEPLESS KNIGHT (War Chant).  His half sister  Sleepless Dixie (Dixie Union) was 0-10 on turf and finished third in two juvie stakes at Monmouth.  DREAM ABOUT was second in her debut and won the Mazarine Breeders' Cup Stakes (G-2) in her third start as a two year old. Deeply Undervalued’s second through fourth dams all own blacktype. Kitten’s Joy’s two year olds win at an average 16% and 17% winners from FTS.

 

LIFE IMITATES ART (More Than Ready - Habiboo, by Unbridled's Song) (C) 3F :39.00 (10/13) (KEESEP14 $175K)  has three half siblings, only one raced at two, and was unplaced. HABIBOO won the First Flight Handicap (G2) as a juvenile and she’s a half sister to the MG1 sprinter and sire STREET BOSS (Street Cry).  The second dam is stakes placed and the third and fourth dams are French blacktype earners.  More Than Ready is an above average sire of juveniles, getting 18% winners, although only 11% winners from FTS. Life Imitates Art could do well over dirt or turf and may prefer longer sprints to middle distances.

 

CYBER SECURITY (Broken Vow - Cameron Crazies, by Lion Heart) (C )  3F :39.63 (12/13)  (OBSAUG14 $185K) he’s a half to the stakes winning sprinter PRUDHOE BAY (Songandaprayer), who won his debut at two and the Jersey Shore Stakes (G-3) at three. Their dam was second in the Schuylerville Stakes at two and owns the only blacktype in two generations. Broken Vow’s two year olds win at 16% and his FTS at 11%. Cyber Security has the pedigree to be an early summer sprinter/miler.

 

ECONOMIC MODEL (Flatter - Queen of America, by Quiet American)  (C) 3F :39.63 (12/13)  (KEESEP14 $150K) this Claiborne Farm-bred colt is a half brother to WELL MONIED (Maria’s Mon), winner of the Honeymoon Handicap (G-2) and runner-up in the American Oaks Invitational and Del Mar Oaks, both G-1 events on the lawn.  He’s also a half to the stakes winning turf miler JIMMY SIMMS (Lost Soldier).  Two of Economic Model’s half siblings raced at two, both hit the board but didn’t win. Three of his six half siblings to race are winners. Flatter gets an average 16% two year old winners but only 11% FTS win. Economic Model may be a mid-to-late two year old and prefer longer sprints to middle distances.